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Article: Where Can the Twins Find Some OBP for Their Lineup?

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#101 TNTwinsFan

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Posted 04 December 2018 - 08:23 PM

What are the better options in this year's FA Class?

#102 jorgenswest

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Posted 04 December 2018 - 08:25 PM

I would go with the infielder who will take a one year deal. I think this is the position to wait out. The losing team will be the one that spends big on Gonzalez. Through his prime he has a career negative UZR around the infield. He has one fantastic year surrounded by years that won’t work well as a LF. As he declines and has to move away from middle infield I don’t think his bat will play well on a corner.
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#103 mlhouse

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Posted 04 December 2018 - 08:26 PM

 

I'm with you as long as the plan then is to add real ballplayers in free agency and trades. If you do as you're suggesting, but then "fill in" with Rondell White's or Ricky Nolasco's and Logan Forsythe's, you will continue to be perpetually mediocre. 

 

Sign or trade for high end guys or fill in with your own is what I would like to see. That doesn't mean you don't make some of these mid level signings, but signing mid level guys to bat 4th or 5th in your lineup, or be a top 2 starter in your rotation has got them in trouble for years.

 

What you are missing is that the success or failure of the Twins in the near term is not based upon Rondell White or Logan Forsythe, guys you bring in to fill in.Instead, it depends upon the core group of prospects. 

 

If Lewis-Kirilloff-Rooker-Berrios become Puckett-Hrbek-Gaetti-Viola, some of the other prospects become the Greg Gagne's and Dan Gladden, and the "fill in" players Brian Harper, Shane Mack, and Chili Davis then we have a chance to compete.

 

If they become 2018 versions of Miguel Sano and Buxton, then it is a much longer stretch of misery for us.

 

Also, instead of committing $10-15-20 milliona year on guys like Ricky Nolasco, Phil Hughes, and even Ervin Santana, use your prospects while you are rebuilding so you have the financial flexibility to make a better free agent play once it will matter.Ervin Santana had, despite injuries, the best 4 year stretch of his career, including 2017 which was the best year of his career.Yet, the Twins spent $55 million (including the $1 million buyout) to average 86 losses in his 4 years on the roster. I call that a waste of money.

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#104 TheLeviathan

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Posted 04 December 2018 - 08:37 PM

 

What are the better options in this year's FA Class?

 

I'd rather have Gonzalez, Iglesias (because of his position), or even Dozier.  


#105 DocBauer

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Posted 04 December 2018 - 08:47 PM

I just don't feel this is an either or situation. In other words, I don't think you have to sign a bunch of guys and "buy" a team to try to compete. But I also don't think you have to promote/rush guys from AA and A ball and force feed them hoping they will adapt. Even if you promote aggressively, there is still value in learning and honing skills.

The Twins have some really fine and still young talent. Have we seen them all reach or approach their potential? Of course not! But other than Rosario, I believe they are all 25-ish. And you have a new season, hopefully better health, and a new manager and staff to work with them.

Why can't you be aggressive in the system in 2019 while working with what you have, and still add a few guys on 1,2 and 3 year deals to build the roster and play good/better ball NOW?

With the number of options available on the market, this could be accomplished. Sign a big RP arm for 3yrs. Why can't said reliever still be good when Lewis, Khirilloff, etc, arrive? Sign one more good one maybe on a shorter deal and a flier or two.

I just don't think it's either or.
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#106 DocBauer

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Posted 04 December 2018 - 08:58 PM

Back on original topic, I really like the discussion of OB vs OPS. I think it's an important topic and discussion.

Internally, for example, I've previously mentioned a healthy Buxton simply making better contact and hitting in the .250 range with a low .300 OB. Obviously not what anyone wants to see, or previously expected, and maybe it really is his floor and he can/will do much better. But it's a start. With natural power and tremendous speed, even at those "levels" he could rather easily be a 30+ doubles, 15-18+HR guy with 30SB and high 3B totals. I don't know how that would equate to OPS, but I think it would be pretty impressive.

I really think the prime place right now to look at is 2B. Lowrie will lose it one of these days, but he's still a quality player who gives you a bit of everything. Gonzalez may not match him for OB, but might end up with as good or better OPS.

Not sure which one I'd prefer. And who know's about Schoop? If you look at his 15-16 numbers he's still a nice player, but I think a 3rd, or lower choice, IMO. But what if he could be even close to his 2017 self?

"Nice catch Hayes...don't ever f*****g do it again."

 

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#107 jorgenswest

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Posted 08 December 2018 - 07:45 AM

Just a wonder...

Are high strikeout players with an OPS that is homer driven more likely to slumps?

Do teams with a lot of these players tend to win their games by multiple runs but lose lots of close games?

Why does OBP have a higher correlation to wins than SLG?
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#108 ashburyjohn

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Posted 08 December 2018 - 09:04 AM

Just a wonder...

Are high strikeout players with an OPS that is homer driven more likely to slumps?

Do teams with a lot of these players tend to win their games by multiple runs but lose lots of close games?

Why does OBP have a higher correlation to wins than SLG?

I'll take a crack at that last one. The game is over when you make your 27th out as a team (24 if you're winning, other numbers in certain cases). So, not making an out at your turn can be thought of as the single most important skill in the game. OBP is basically the mirror image of making outs.

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#109 Major League Ready

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Posted 08 December 2018 - 10:24 AM

How about if a hole bunch of the guys currently on the roster take better ABs and the OBP goes up. There is no excuse for the complete lack of discipline Rosario often displays. I don't remember the exact ranking but he was in the top 10 worst in MLB for swinging outside the zone. There were short bursts where the team overall managed to show some disciplined hitting and it looked like a different team. 

Edited by Major League Ready, 08 December 2018 - 10:27 AM.


#110 jorgenswest

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Posted 08 December 2018 - 10:30 AM

How about if a hole bunch of the guys currently on the roster take better ABs and the OBP goes up. There is no excuse for the complete lack of discipline Rosario often displays. I don't remember the exact ranking but he was in the top 10 worst in MLB for swinging outside the zone. There were short bursts where the team overall managed to show some disciplined hitting and it looked like a different team.


Is strike zone recognition a talent or a mindset? Some of both no doubt and players do improve their pitch recognition as they see more major league pitches. I think it is more skill and talent than mindset. It is hard to have plate discipline when your pitch recognition talent is weak. Rosario makes up for it with great hands. His pitch recognition will get better but I don’t think his deficit is lack of discipline. I think it is lack of that talent/skill.

#111 Major League Ready

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Posted 08 December 2018 - 11:11 AM

 

Is strike zone recognition a talent or a mindset? Some of both no doubt and players do improve their pitch recognition as they see more major league pitches. I think it is more skill and talent than mindset. It is hard to have plate discipline when your pitch recognition talent is weak. Rosario makes up for it with great hands. His pitch recognition will get better but I don’t think his deficit is lack of discipline. I think it is lack of that talent/skill.

 

You make a good point in that it's not as simple as just better discipline and pitch recognition is a skill with limitations regardless of approach. Rosario seems to get a pass with most people. I don't think it's pitch recognition because it does not look like he is fooled and he swings at pitches that are not even remotely close. Quite often It looks like he has no approach, no plan whatsoever, just swing at whatever is thrown. He was the worst hitter on the team the 2nd half and it looked to me like the pitchers had adapted and used his lack of discipline to turn him into a very poor hitter. I hope he proves me completely wrong but I don't have nearly the confidence in him as most do here. I would trade him if someone was willing to give value commensurate with his 1st half performance.

 

Edited by Major League Ready, 08 December 2018 - 11:27 AM.


#112 Hosken Bombo Disco

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Posted 08 December 2018 - 11:31 AM

Rosario seems to often lose focus in a lost situation (a losing game, or the second half of last year) which yes speaks to a lack of discipline. He's also our best player. Should have been an All Star last year. He's matured as a hitter from his first two seasons, and he's entering his peak years. He's a free swinger, as Oliva and Puckett were. In the context of this thread, he's the least of our worries, so yes, he gets a pass from me.

#113 Winston Smith

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Posted 08 December 2018 - 12:47 PM

"It is well understood (and intuitively obvious) that on-base percentage correlates highly with run-scoring...…"

 

With the Twins:

 

Grossman: 1310 pa's, .371 obp scoring a run 12.3% of pa's

 

Kepler; 1633 pa's, .313 obp scoring a run 12.2% of pa's

 

Rosario: 2009 pa's, .312 obp scoring run 13.8% of pa's

 

Mauer (last 3yrs)1713 pa's, .366 obp scoring a run 11.7% of pa's

If you don't know where you are going, you might wind up someplace else.

 

Yogi Berra


#114 jorgenswest

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Posted 08 December 2018 - 01:01 PM

 

"It is well understood (and intuitively obvious) that on-base percentage correlates highly with run-scoring...…"

 

With the Twins:

 

Grossman: 1310 pa's, .371 obp scoring a run 12.3% of pa's

 

Kepler; 1633 pa's, .313 obp scoring a run 12.2% of pa's

 

Rosario: 2009 pa's, .312 obp scoring run 13.8% of pa's

 

Mauer (last 3yrs)1713 pa's, .366 obp scoring a run 11.7% of pa's

 

Team OBP correlates with team runs scored.

 

Is it true in every run scoring environment? Maybe not.

 

http://www.banishedt...ase-percentage/