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Article: Rundown: The Next Eovaldi, Cleveland Trade Rumors and More

nathan eovaldi michael pineda drew pomeranz trevor bauer patrick corbin
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#41 Major League Ready

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Posted 30 November 2018 - 08:15 AM

 

how do you plan to get great pitching, if you won't trade top prospects, or sign guys to long term deals?

Mike,

 

A couple years ago someone made a similar statement. I put up a chart of all of the playoff teams and the source of their SPs. It was overwhelmingly how grown. Some were drafted and some were trades before the player became established. Granted, that has shifted some the last couple years.

 

There were 2 relatively high profile free agent SPslast year. Collectively they produced 2WAR for $51M (Arietta-2 / Darvish-0)

 

There were not any high profile SPs in 2017. Rich Hill was the highest price FA at less than $13M AAV.

 

In 2016, there were 4 high profile signings. Two of them (Price / Cueto) produced well in 2016. The other two not so much. Production went down for the group in 2017. Only Greinke was good. The other 3 produced 1.6 - 1.0 WAR.Production down even further in 2018 where this group averaged 1.825WAR

 

2018

21.00 / 126 Darvish ….. 0 
25.00 / 75 Arietta…... 2 

 

2017 N/A  
    
2016    
34.40 / 206 - Zack Greinke 2.2/5.1/3.5
31.00 / 217 - David Price 4.5/1.6/2.7
23.00 / 110 - Jordan Zimmerman 1.3/ 1/ 0.9
21.66 / 130 - Johnny Cueto 5.5/1.2/ 0.2
Average WAR per year ………....3.375 2.225 1.825

 

The premise that signing this type of free agent has a high probability of making the team better is not supported by recent history and the history is the front end where the production should be very good. All four of these deals look bleak in terms of the final years. They produced 1WAR/$18M last year and that's going to look good compared to the final years. 

Edited by Major League Ready, 30 November 2018 - 08:19 AM.

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#42 KirbyDome89

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Posted 30 November 2018 - 09:19 AM

 

Lastly, you need to remember that this is a mediocre team (and Syndergaard won’t change that), 

 Adding one of the best pitchers in baseball to a rotation that desperately needs help would absolutely push this team beyond simply being mediocre. 

 

Teams reach an elite level my making multiple moves forward (from within and outside the organization) over time. Adding Syndergaard would be another step in that direction. I'll never understand the notion that a team needs to "wait," until they're "one player away," to add serious talent via trade or FA. If they won't trade for or sign anybody how can we expect that they ever reach that point? The "they're not there yet," argument becomes a self fulfilling prophecy. 

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#43 Vanimal46

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Posted 30 November 2018 - 09:24 AM

Mike,

A couple years ago someone made a similar statement. I put up a chart of all of the playoff teams and the source of their SPs. It was overwhelmingly how grown. Some were drafted and some were trades before the player became established. Granted, that has shifted some the last couple years.

There were 2 relatively high profile free agent SPs last year. Collectively they produced 2WAR for $51M (Arietta-2 / Darvish-0)

There were not any high profile SPs in 2017. Rich Hill was the highest price FA at less than $13M AAV.

In 2016, there were 4 high profile signings. Two of them (Price / Cueto) produced well in 2016. The other two not so much. Production went down for the group in 2017. Only Greinke was good. The other 3 produced 1.6 - 1.0 WAR. Production down even further in 2018 where this group averaged 1.825WAR

2018
21.00 / 126 Darvish ….. 0
25.00 / 75 Arietta …... 2

2017 N/A

2016
34.40 / 206 - Zack Greinke 2.2/5.1/3.5
31.00 / 217 - David Price 4.5/1.6/2.7
23.00 / 110 - Jordan Zimmerman 1.3/ 1/ 0.9
21.66 / 130 - Johnny Cueto 5.5/1.2/ 0.2
Average WAR per year ……….... 3.375 2.225 1.825

The premise that signing this type of free agent has a high probability of making the team better is not supported by recent history and the history is the front end where the production should be very good. All four of these deals look bleak in terms of the final years. They produced 1WAR/$18M last year and that's going to look good compared to the final years.


The argument in this thread isn't signing free agents. It is about making a trade for Syndergaard. Who's projected to make a little less than $6 million this season with 3 years of control.

There are folks here who want to wait until the stars align perfectly before thinking about making a trade such as this. I think I can speak for Mike too in the next sentence. Making trades like this, for top end pitchers with multiple years of control, helps immensely to open the window of contention.
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#44 beckmt

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Posted 30 November 2018 - 09:34 AM

 

The argument in this thread isn't signing free agents. It is about making a trade for Syndergaard. Who's projected to make a little less than $6 million this season with 3 years of control.

There are folks here who want to wait until the stars align perfectly before thinking about making a trade such as this. I think I can speak for Mike too in the next sentence. Making trades like this, for top end pitchers with multiple years of control, helps immensely to open the window of contention.

I have 2 questions.How much do the Mets want (I have heard it is a haul of close to major league ready talent).I would make Sano, Kepler and a prospect available and if they want more think very hard.

2.Is there something about Syndergaard we do not know (the GM is his former agent and certainly knows everything about him).This issue is what makes me pause since Mets could get a bigger haul for trading 2 years of DeGroom. 

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#45 Mike Sixel

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Posted 30 November 2018 - 09:39 AM

 

Some great arguments back and forth regarding a trade for Thor. And I see merits on BITH sides of the argument. Nobody asked me for my opinion, but I'm going to throw mine out there anyway, lol.

I believe the team needs to make moves to "move the needle forward" absolutely. And if the Mets are really motivated to sell, I'd be interested in buying. The reason is simple, a quality arm at the top of the rotation for 3 more years. Obviously, it also depends on the cost. While still prospects, I don't include Lewis or Khirilloff but anyone else in the system and MOST of the 40 man is open. (Trading Berrios or Gibson to net Thor doesn't really make sense). This includes, as I mentioned earlier today, maybe a package that looks something like Kepler, Romero, Gordon and 1 or Gonsalves, Thorpe or Graterol. Perhaps a 5th top 20 prospect.

The counter, of course, is for the Twins and their new staff to work with the talent on hand, openers or not, and further look at and develop existing potential for at least half a season before making a big move. And if we're truly looking at building from the ground floor up and sustainable success, this makes a ton of sense to me. Especially with the new staff in place. At least for now.

While we have a lot of truly frustrating unknowns, Buxton and Sano amongst them, this team is not good of talent and potential. And you can talk all you want about a late surge in 2017 to reach the playoffs, but they DID do so while winning 85 games. (Reminder, the Indians didn't look so great until a surge either).

There is no reason to extrapolate the FA moves of last season blowing up even though they looked smart. Not again. But if we all knew before the 2018 season started that Santana would be a complete non factor, that Castro would be the same, and Buxton, and Sano almost as bad, that Polanco would miss half a season, that Dozier would be average to awful for the entire season, how many of us might have predicted a 100 loss team vs 84 to the bad?

This team needs a couple smart additions still, and there is opportunity to do so. It also needs some guys to be healthy and take a step forward. But from the top down, all is nkt pure doom and gloom. Thor for 3 years with Berrios and Gibson looks pretty good to me. You add a couple nice BP arms and continue to work with what is on hand, you have the makings of a really nice staff. Decisions on Odorizzi and Pineda can be made later.

You have to make the call to see if you have a match. But while still "prospects", you have to consider the talent and potential of both Lewis and Khirilloff and what they could mean to the franchise in the next year or two.

 

Many of us predicted Santana would be a non factor. That wasn't all that hard to see. Not one FA move was a needle mover. None was for more than 2 years. So while they were fine, none were truly meaningful, even if they had worked out. Do you really think either Lewis or Kiriiloff will be here in the next year? That seems, I'm going to say, unlikely.

I remain hopeful on Buxton and Sano.....but I'd not bet the franchise on them.


#46 Vanimal46

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Posted 30 November 2018 - 09:41 AM

I have 2 questions. How much do the Mets want (I have heard it is a haul of close to major league ready talent). I would make Sano, Kepler and a prospect available and if they want more think very hard.
2. Is there something about Syndergaard we do not know (the GM is his former agent and certainly knows everything about him). This issue is what makes me pause since Mets could get a bigger haul for trading 2 years of DeGroom.


I don't know I'm not in the trade negotiation. I said in this thread no one in the Twins' organization is off the table for him IMO.

There's probably less backlash trading Syndergaard than trading DeGrom who had a historically good season.

#47 Mike Sixel

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Posted 30 November 2018 - 09:43 AM

 

Mike,

 

A couple years ago someone made a similar statement. I put up a chart of all of the playoff teams and the source of their SPs. It was overwhelmingly how grown. Some were drafted and some were trades before the player became established. Granted, that has shifted some the last couple years.

 

There were 2 relatively high profile free agent SPslast year. Collectively they produced 2WAR for $51M (Arietta-2 / Darvish-0)

 

There were not any high profile SPs in 2017. Rich Hill was the highest price FA at less than $13M AAV.

 

In 2016, there were 4 high profile signings. Two of them (Price / Cueto) produced well in 2016. The other two not so much. Production went down for the group in 2017. Only Greinke was good. The other 3 produced 1.6 - 1.0 WAR.Production down even further in 2018 where this group averaged 1.825WAR

 

2018

21.00 / 126 Darvish ….. 0 
25.00 / 75 Arietta…... 2 

 

2017 N/A  
    
2016    
34.40 / 206 - Zack Greinke 2.2/5.1/3.5
31.00 / 217 - David Price 4.5/1.6/2.7
23.00 / 110 - Jordan Zimmerman 1.3/ 1/ 0.9
21.66 / 130 - Johnny Cueto 5.5/1.2/ 0.2
Average WAR per year ………....3.375 2.225 1.825

 

The premise that signing this type of free agent has a high probability of making the team better is not supported by recent history and the history is the front end where the production should be very good. All four of these deals look bleak in terms of the final years. They produced 1WAR/$18M last year and that's going to look good compared to the final years. 

 

Overwhelmingly is not completely. Nor am I saying they have to sign the top FA.....how about not the cheap, 1 year types? How about aiming somewhat higher than that?

 

Houston, Boston, NYY.....they are not totally home grown. Or the Cubs. Or likely playoff team Philly. 

 

It's fine if you all want to wait on prospects, but then trade off every veteran. Because this minor league system isn't close to producing MLB help right now.

 

The odds of a prospect working out are even lower than a FA working out, aren't they? Like, 1 in how many tens or hundreds?

 

I keep loving how people are ripping the Darvish deal, while at the same time praising the FO for being 2nd highest bidders. Clearly the FO disagrees, or they weren't really trying for Davish.

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I remain hopeful on Buxton and Sano.....but I'd not bet the franchise on them.


#48 Tom Froemming

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Posted 30 November 2018 - 09:44 AM

I think Twins fans to some degree are stuck in this mentality that we need starting pitching. Two things on that topic ...

 

1) That's not a team weakness right now. Berrios, Gibson and Odorizzi were all top 25 WAR for AL pitchers. Add Pineda and a bunch of good options for the fifth spot and you've got a playoff-caliber rotation. This team needs to score more runs and get a better performance from its bullpen.

 

2) Take a look at the 2018 Milwaukee Brewers rotation. Their best starter last year was roughly as good as Odorizzi. They still went 96-67 and were a game away from the World Series.

 

There's no such thing as too much pitching, and the rotation does thin out after next season with Gibby, Odo and Pineda all set to become free agents, but I still wouldn't do anything drastic such as trade away Lewis to upgrade the rotation. 

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#49 Vanimal46

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Posted 30 November 2018 - 09:54 AM

I think Twins fans to some degree are stuck in this mentality that we need starting pitching. Two things on that topic ...

1) That's not a team weakness right now. Berrios, Gibson and Odorizzi were all top 25 WAR for AL pitchers. Add Pineda and a bunch of good options for the fifth spot and you've got a playoff-caliber rotation. This team needs to score more runs and get a better performance from its bullpen.

2) Take a look at the 2018 Milwaukee Brewers rotation. Their best starter last year was roughly as good as Odorizzi. They still went 96-67 and were a game away from the World Series.

There's no such thing as too much pitching, and the rotation does thin out after next season with Gibby, Odo and Pineda all set to become free agents, but I still wouldn't do anything drastic such as trade away Lewis to upgrade the rotation.

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Edited by Vanimal46, 30 November 2018 - 09:55 AM.

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#50 Vanimal46

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Posted 30 November 2018 - 09:56 AM

Just because the Twins are no longer ranked 30th in MLB in pitching doesn't mean it's good.
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#51 Tom Froemming

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Posted 30 November 2018 - 10:05 AM

 

Yup.

 

Lance Lynn 5.10 ERA in 20 starts

Ervin Santana 8.03 ERA in five starts

 

The big X-factor will be how they react when someone struggles. They can't afford to keep sinking innings into lost causes. With the amount of options they have waiting in the wings, that shouldn't be necessary. 

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#52 Vanimal46

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Posted 30 November 2018 - 10:08 AM

Yup.

Lance Lynn 5.10 ERA in 20 starts
Ervin Santana 8.03 ERA in five starts

The big X-factor will be how they react when someone struggles. They can't afford to keep sinking innings into lost causes. With the amount of options they have waiting in the wings, that shouldn't be necessary.


Because the Twins have had so much success calling up a rookie from AAA and seeing immediate success in recent years.

#53 Mike Sixel

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Posted 30 November 2018 - 10:09 AM

BTW....no one on this site or anywhere else is denying that home grown talent is the best way to go. Some of us are arguing its not the only way to go. Nor are we arguing that the whole rotation, INF, OF, RP corps, whatever strawman people want to put up, should be FAs or trades. No one is making that argument.

 

Some of us are arguing that ignoring some all the channels other than home grown won't really work. And no, 1 year deals is not not ignoring FA, imo. And, if the FO really tried to sign Darvish, they agree.

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I remain hopeful on Buxton and Sano.....but I'd not bet the franchise on them.


#54 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 30 November 2018 - 10:12 AM

 

I think Twins fans to some degree are stuck in this mentality that we need starting pitching. Two things on that topic ...

 

1) That's not a team weakness right now. Berrios, Gibson and Odorizzi were all top 25 WAR for AL pitchers. Add Pineda and a bunch of good options for the fifth spot and you've got a playoff-caliber rotation. This team needs to score more runs and get a better performance from its bullpen.

 

2) Take a look at the 2018 Milwaukee Brewers rotation. Their best starter last year was roughly as good as Odorizzi. They still went 96-67 and were a game away from the World Series.

 

There's no such thing as too much pitching, and the rotation does thin out after next season with Gibby, Odo and Pineda all set to become free agents, but I still wouldn't do anything drastic such as trade away Lewis to upgrade the rotation. 

 

So are you confident that 2nd half Odorizzi will be more the norm than the exception next year? Just curious. I didn't realize he was a top 25 SP in WAR though. 

 

 


#55 Mike Sixel

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Posted 30 November 2018 - 10:16 AM

 

So are you confident that 2nd half Odorizzi will be more the norm than the exception next year? Just curious. I didn't realize he was a top 25 SP in WAR though. 

 

The Twins had zero SP in the top 25 of fangraphs' version of WAR.....Berrios was 27, Gibson 32, and ODO 43 among those pitching at least 90 innings last year.

I remain hopeful on Buxton and Sano.....but I'd not bet the franchise on them.


#56 Tom Froemming

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Posted 30 November 2018 - 10:22 AM

 

Because the Twins have had so much success calling up a rookie from AAA and seeing immediate success in recent years.

Adalberto Mejia has a 108 ERA+ in 122 2/3 career innings.

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#57 KirbyDome89

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Posted 30 November 2018 - 10:24 AM

 

Mike,

 

A couple years ago someone made a similar statement. I put up a chart of all of the playoff teams and the source of their SPs. It was overwhelmingly how grown. Some were drafted and some were trades before the player became established. Granted, that has shifted some the last couple years.

 

There were 2 relatively high profile free agent SPslast year. Collectively they produced 2WAR for $51M (Arietta-2 / Darvish-0)

 

There were not any high profile SPs in 2017. Rich Hill was the highest price FA at less than $13M AAV.

 

In 2016, there were 4 high profile signings. Two of them (Price / Cueto) produced well in 2016. The other two not so much. Production went down for the group in 2017. Only Greinke was good. The other 3 produced 1.6 - 1.0 WAR.Production down even further in 2018 where this group averaged 1.825WAR

 

2018

21.00 / 126 Darvish ….. 0 
25.00 / 75 Arietta…... 2 

 

2017 N/A  
    
2016    
34.40 / 206 - Zack Greinke 2.2/5.1/3.5
31.00 / 217 - David Price 4.5/1.6/2.7
23.00 / 110 - Jordan Zimmerman 1.3/ 1/ 0.9
21.66 / 130 - Johnny Cueto 5.5/1.2/ 0.2
Average WAR per year ………....3.375 2.225 1.825

 

The premise that signing this type of free agent has a high probability of making the team better is not supported by recent history and the history is the front end where the production should be very good. All four of these deals look bleak in terms of the final years. They produced 1WAR/$18M last year and that's going to look good compared to the final years. 

Boston: traded for or signed Sale, Price, and Porcello

Houston: traded for Verlander and Cole

New York: Signed Tanaka and just traded for Paxton

Cleveland: traded for Carrasco, Kluber, and Bauer

 

That's just in the AL. None of that screams home grown to me. The closest thing are the pitchers Cleveland acquired but those guys were already in AAA or about to make that jump when the Indians traded for them. 

 

Nobody is arguing that massive FA pitching contracts are great value; they're not, but Jordan Zimmerman and Zach Greinke aren't on the same talent planet. Skipping the 15' FA class helps that poor WAR return argument as well because you're leaving out Max Scherzer's dominance since his FA signing. As it stands right now I'd take a 2 WAR Arrieta over the question marks in the 4 and 5 spots for the current Twins rotation. Ideally the team would aim higher but it's certainly better than crossing your fingers and hoping for the best.

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#58 Tom Froemming

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Posted 30 November 2018 - 10:25 AM

 

The Twins had zero SP in the top 25 of fangraphs' version of WAR.....Berrios was 27, Gibson 32, and ODO 43 among those pitching at least 90 innings last year.

The top 25 stat was in the American League, but this works too. I'll take three of the top 45 starting pitchers in all of baseball. 

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#59 Vanimal46

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Posted 30 November 2018 - 10:25 AM

Adalberto Mejia has a 108 ERA+ in 122 2/3 career innings.


Come on Tom. Don't make me list out all of the Twins rookies who struggled mightily in their first 5-15 MLB starts over the last 3 years. You know this.

#60 Tom Froemming

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Posted 30 November 2018 - 10:33 AM

 

Come on Tom. Don't make me list out all of the Twins rookies who struggled mightily in their first 5-15 MLB starts over the last 3 years. You know this.

I could also point to how poorly Berrios debuted as a reason to be encouraged about some of the young guys taking a step forward, but what does any of that have to do with 2019?

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