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Article: Arbitration Decisions Looming

jake odorizzi kyle gibson miguel sano byron buxton max kepler
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#21 Rosterman

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Posted 29 November 2018 - 01:07 PM

Right now you go with Odorizzi and Gibson and if you don't see longterm possibilities, hope they pitch their hearts out entering free agency and you can flip them. Is there loyalty involved in Gibson (considering our outcry not to offer him arbitration as little as two seasons ago).

 

Can you find a reserve infielder with experience for the price of Adrianza?

 

Grossman vs. Granite/Cave/Reed or Austin/Cron. There is no longer room in the inn. But you sign him just in case? Injuries? You don't have to pay him at some point? Bigger question, will someone sign him or would he have to sign a non-major league contract with an invite to spring training?

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#22 yarnivek1972

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Posted 29 November 2018 - 01:59 PM

I don’t really love Odorizzi at $9 mil either, but that is probably about what he will get and sadly market rate for pedestrian starting pitchers these days. Could be worse (Carlos Silva flashback).

It is ironic that Gibson will likely get less in arb as the two have nearly identical service time. Gibson was obviously far better last year but Odorizzi has considerably better career numbers. $9 mil would be a 50% raise for Odorizzi. I think Gibson will get close to $8 mil, maybe even over, which would be almost 100% increase. Point being the system seems to be working the way it is supposed to.

#23 ND-Fan

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Posted 29 November 2018 - 02:46 PM

I think Grossman is much harder nontender than most think because he gets on base a lot for team that has struggled to get people on. Also he is switch hitter meaning provides a bat from either side and I also think he is positive in the club house. With Mauer gone he provides them with always professional at bat working counts deep and walks a lot. I have feeling they might just want to keep him because a lot of ifs with Cave , Austin, and Cron for the coming year and he has proven track record on offense and how bad we were offensively last year.


#24 Seth Stohs

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Posted 29 November 2018 - 03:01 PM

Article updated with the following tweet noting that Ehire Adrianza agreed to a one year, $1.3 million deal. 

 


#25 rdehring

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Posted 29 November 2018 - 03:14 PM

What I found most interesting from this exercise, Seth, is the prediction that Grossman would get within a million bucks of what Rosario will.Not saying the projections are wrong, but that just isn't fair, in my opinion.

 

As for what bell tolls for Grossman tomorrow, my guess is that he will be tendered.I see him as having some value.And if the Twins need a 40-man roster spot, gotta believe that Granite gets waived before they will let Grossman go for nothing.  

 

The good news is that we will know in another day. 


#26 yarnivek1972

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Posted 29 November 2018 - 03:21 PM

What I found most interesting from this exercise, Seth, is the prediction that Grossman would get within a million bucks of what Rosario will. Not saying the projections are wrong, but that just isn't fair, in my opinion.

As for what bell tolls for Grossman tomorrow, my guess is that he will be tendered. I see him as having some value. And if the Twins need a 40-man roster spot, gotta believe that Granite gets waived before they will let Grossman go for nothing.

The good news is that we will know in another day.


Grossman has an additional year of service. Fair or not, that’s simply the way the system works.
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#27 Mike Sixel

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Posted 29 November 2018 - 03:41 PM

If they tender Grossman, I will seriously question why they have their jobs. He does one thing well, and it isn't all that valuable. And, it is cancelled out by how terrible he is in the field. It would make no sense at all to keep him around.

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I remain hopeful on Buxton and Sano.....but I'd not bet the franchise on them.


#28 Blake

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Posted 29 November 2018 - 04:00 PM

 

If they tender Grossman, I will seriously question why they have their jobs. He does one thing well, and it isn't all that valuable. And, it is cancelled out by how terrible he is in the field. It would make no sense at all to keep him around.

Maybe it's an "every other year" thing with Grossman. Grossman 1.0 was bad in 2016 and Grossman 2.0 was decent in 2017. Last year, Grossman reverted to Grossman 1.0. 


#29 DocBauer

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Posted 29 November 2018 - 04:04 PM

If they tender Grossman, I will seriously question why they have their jobs. He does one thing well, and it isn't all that valuable. And, it is cancelled out by how terrible he is in the field. It would make no sense at all to keep him around.


Used correctly, DH much, much more than in the field, and hitting at the top of the order to replace Mauer there, as well as PH duties, he has some value. Especially if the next 3-4(5) hitters are quality and in place.

But where the roster is now, absolutely no room for him. Not to mention the FO isnt done yet. At least, they sure better not be!

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#30 Jim Hahn

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Posted 29 November 2018 - 04:06 PM

If they tender Grossman, I will seriously question why they have their jobs. He does one thing well, and it isn't all that valuable. And, it is cancelled out by how terrible he is in the field. It would make no sense at all to keep him around.


I agree in a general sense that Grossman's on base skills would be more valuable if they were paired with another skill. I also think that on base skills are undervalued right now, in part because the popular new stats are constructed to overvalue power. Even OPS does this where a single becomes twice as valuable as a walk and a home run roughly 5 times as valuable.

I go back and forth on Grossman, I would think a guy with on base skills and better defense might be more valuable. Someone like Wade, if he can hit.

#31 Major League Ready

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Posted 29 November 2018 - 04:31 PM

 

I think Grossman is much harder nontender than most think because he gets on base a lot for team that has struggled to get people on. Also he is switch hitter meaning provides a bat from either side and I also think he is positive in the club house. With Mauer gone he provides them with always professional at bat working counts deep and walks a lot. I have feeling they might just want to keep him because a lot of ifs with Cave , Austin, and Cron for the coming year and he has proven track record on offense and how bad we were offensively last year.

 

I like to break-down the previous year to see how players are trending. The most predictive information is generally the most recent. Of course, we know this generalization sometimes is not so accurate with MLB players. Grossman was the team's best hitter over the 2nd. Rosario was the worst. Here is wRC+ for the 2nd half (players with 100AB or more)

 

Grossman .…. 128
Garver ….....… 118
Polanco .……. 112
Austin ………. 106
Kepler …….... 99
Cave …'.…….. 98
Mauer ………. 95
Forsythe …... 85
Sano ………… 85
Adrianza …....65
Rosario ……...64

 

I am indifferent but I think your position is a lot closer to that of the FO as compared to most posters here.

Edited by Major League Ready, 29 November 2018 - 04:35 PM.


#32 kab21

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Posted 29 November 2018 - 04:44 PM

Pretty much the only reason that a team wouldn't offer arbitration to a starter like Odorizzi is if they had an absolutely stacked rotation where there was a better option. His stats are unimpressive but nothing kills a season faster than having 2-3 revolving doors in the rotation.

 

 

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Is 2016 2017 2018 the year that a good pitching prospect is truly blocked by 5 good pitchers in the starting rotation? 

Offseason (noun) - a time to propose trades assuming opposing GM's can't do the same basic analysis


#33 jorgenswest

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Posted 29 November 2018 - 07:24 PM

OBP probably most unappreciated stat in baseball. It correlates with wins better than SLG and AVG. Working long counts and making the pitcher throw a lot of pitches in an at bat is a relative weakness on the Twins. While not appreciated Grossman has a track record of getting on base and drawing walks better than most of the roster. Who would you project to have a better OBP next year? I can’t think of anyone. I think I would tender his contract.
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#34 Danchat

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Posted 29 November 2018 - 07:44 PM

 

OBP probably most unappreciated stat in baseball. It correlates with wins better than SLG and AVG. Working long counts and making the pitcher throw a lot of pitches in an at bat is a relative weakness on the Twins. While not appreciated Grossman has a track record of getting on base and drawing walks better than most of the roster. Who would you project to have a better OBP next year? I can’t think of anyone. I think I would tender his contract.

With Cron getting tendered, I can't see Grossman getting tendered. Other than being a liability in the outfield and being fit best for DH'ing, his bat just isn't that good. Check out his 2018 splits:

 

Grossman 2018 March to August 5th: .253/.332/.365 (.697 OPS)

Coming off DL August 21th-Sept: .319/.442/.429 (.871 OPS)

 

Nearly all of Robbie's 2018 hitting production came when the season was already over and the Twins were facing some bad pitchers from the Central division in late August/September. He had a .649 OPS from March to the end of June. I'll pass, we already have two 1B/DH guys who should both hit better than Grossman in 2018. OBP is good, but not at the cost of bad defense and little baserunning ability.

 

 

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#35 DocBauer

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Posted 29 November 2018 - 07:54 PM

OBP probably most unappreciated stat in baseball. It correlates with wins better than SLG and AVG. Working long counts and making the pitcher throw a lot of pitches in an at bat is a relative weakness on the Twins. While not appreciated Grossman has a track record of getting on base and drawing walks better than most of the roster. Who would you project to have a better OBP next year? I can’t think of anyone. I think I would tender his contract.


I liked your post and really can't disagree with you. And Grossman does offer value. I just don't feel he offers enough value to keep around, especially with the addition of Cron, which I happen to like. I'd be more in favor of keeping Grossman if Sano and Buxton were coming off solid seasons. The lineup would seem so much mkre complete we could afford to keep Grossman as a role player. I just feel he's too one dimensional to fit at this point. We need to find improvement to the roster in different ways.

Note: were he to agree to a much smaller contract, or be released and re-signed on a small, or even milb deal, I wouldn't be entirely opposed to him being brought to camp.
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#36 ChrisKnutson

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Posted 29 November 2018 - 08:21 PM

Here’s to hoping that the FO can somehow work out a trade involving Grossman and Odorizzi before the tomorrow’s deadline. Unfortunately, dealing Grossman will be tough, but the Twins shouldn’t have a problem finding a taker for Odorizzi as teams like Toronto and Oakland could sure use some starting pitching.

#37 jorgenswest

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Posted 29 November 2018 - 08:36 PM

With Cron getting tendered, I can't see Grossman getting tendered. Other than being a liability in the outfield and being fit best for DH'ing, his bat just isn't that good. Check out his 2018 splits:
 
Grossman 2018 March to August 5th: .253/.332/.365 (.697 OPS)
Coming off DL August 21th-Sept: .319/.442/.429 (.871 OPS)
 
Nearly all of Robbie's 2018 hitting production came when the season was already over and the Twins were facing some bad pitchers from the Central division in late August/September. He had a .649 OPS from March to the end of June. I'll pass, we already have two 1B/DH guys who should both hit better than Grossman in 2018. OBP is good, but not at the cost of bad defense and little baserunning ability.


Grossman has a long track record of solid on base skills. You don’t need to value that skill but partial season slash stat splits are not enough sample to support an different conclusion. He can get on base. That skill has value. He might not bring enough other value but I don’t see many guys on this team that will work a count and draw a walk.

If the plan is to bring in a guy with power and on base skills I am all in.

#38 kab21

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Posted 30 November 2018 - 12:50 AM

 

I liked your post and really can't disagree with you. And Grossman does offer value. I just don't feel he offers enough value to keep around, especially with the addition of Cron, which I happen to like. I'd be more in favor of keeping Grossman if Sano and Buxton were coming off solid seasons. The lineup would seem so much mkre complete we could afford to keep Grossman as a role player. I just feel he's too one dimensional to fit at this point. We need to find improvement to the roster in different ways.

Note: were he to agree to a much smaller contract, or be released and re-signed on a small, or even milb deal, I wouldn't be entirely opposed to him being brought to camp.

I am fine keeping Grossman but that means someone else (like Austin is out the door). I do like what he contributes within the narrow scope of what he does well. The problem like you say is that he has a very narrow list of positives.

Is 2016 2017 2018 the year that a good pitching prospect is truly blocked by 5 good pitchers in the starting rotation? 

Offseason (noun) - a time to propose trades assuming opposing GM's can't do the same basic analysis


#39 beckmt

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Posted 30 November 2018 - 04:35 AM

Interesting set of concepts as I also value OBP and long at bats.However unless you field 9 players with those skills (an interesting concept to chew up opposing pitching staffs), one or two of those type of players will not move the needle.Will see and hope the Twins make some trades today, but do not see much movement from them.Grossman is the only Twins player I can see nontendering.Oderizzi would cost as much or more to replace with someone that is as good, and would also tell me the Twins are going the evaluation route in 2019.Hope the Twins use some of the minor league depth (on one minor league list they had 21 B- or better players in their system), most teams do not get to 10. Let's see some deals and at the end of the day will have a better picture of where the Twins are going.  

Twins need to clear room on the 40 man and move some players not going to be here in 2020 for more controllable assets, so if some of these possible nontenders would be shipped out, would not cause a great deal of pain here.

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#40 wavedog

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Posted 30 November 2018 - 08:22 AM

Looking at his 2018 stats - Grossman did much better hitting against Lefthanders - we now have Cron and Austin battling for that role and the roster does not that redundancy. I like his patient AB's and OBP but not having a good clear defensive position and $4Mtilts the scales to non-tender.  




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