I don't blame the Twins for missing on Tyler Jay. When you consider how many teams have missed over the years, I would be very uncomfortable blaming the Twins for this single draft pick.
However... When I add Tyler Jay to every 1st round pick we've had since 2005 and the hind sight results that we can all see. I then start feeling comfortable blaming the Twins.
I get this, but I wonder how instructive it is to look at history dating back more than a decade. The 2006 results probably don't answer the silent question that criticism of the selection always asks about the competence of the current decision-makers. Can we have a statute of limitations on this?
Does a particular bad result tell you something about the comparative level of prowess involved? Are the same people still earning a W-2? Is it a case of a bad decision, or is it a bad result for other reasons? If the same people who gave you Kirilloff gave you Kohl Stewart, what explains this good decision/bad decision thing?
I challenge anyone to randomly pick a franchise and go back ten years with their first-round picks. Compare their results to the Twins. Factor in the value of very early selections versus late ones. Add up WAR, assign "points" or something to prospects based on Sickles grade letters if they're still in the minors. Oh, and pull out the Trout outlier if you randomly pick one of them. In other words, try to be fair and objective about it. Then get back to us to show us all how bad the Twins have done COMPARATIVELY SPEAKING.
Tyler Jay appears to be a bad result. IMO, he appears to be one of the infrequent bad decisions too, not just a case of bad luck. But this doesn't suggest to me a problem with talent evaluation. Not with Lewis and Kirilloff both among about the 20 or so prospects earning a straight A grade from Sickles.
Edited by birdwatcher, 22 November 2018 - 08:54 AM.