For $100,000 it's foolish not to take a rule 5 player. I haven't looked lately, but at one time Haley was on the best team in baseball. With us he was on the DL twice and couldn't seem to stay healthy. Injuries are part of the game, but the pick was a good one.
The cost is roster flexibility.
Even if you do roster that player it would be years before you get a return. Ryan Pressly was taken in 2013 and was used in low leverage situations. The Twins in turn had to carry 13 pitchers much of the year. He was sent to AAA in 2014 and pitched less than 30 major league innings in both 2014-2015. In 2016-2017 he was at the back of the bullpen just above replacement level. Finally a pay off in 2018 and the Twins do get good prospects.
Likely best case is the guy we take this year pays off in 2024. The much greater likelihood is that the rule 5 addition will be stuck on the roster and increase the need for a 13th pitcher. This will really limit the opportunity for an extra bench bat like Astudillo. I would rather bet on Astudillo and roster those last spots in the pen to guys with options that can shuttled back and forth rather so that the staff can stay at 12 most of the year.
How many contenders are going to trade roster flexibility to stash a rule 5 guy in 2019? How many did it last year? If it was foolish not to take a rule 5 player wouldn’t every team take one?