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What does Arizona take for Greinke?

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#21 TheLeviathan

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Posted 16 November 2018 - 01:19 PM

 

Put yourselves in the seat as Arizona GM. Would you honestly take this deal? 

 

Quite possibly yes.Might have to throw in a prospect in our 15-20 range, but yes.


#22 birdwatcher

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Posted 16 November 2018 - 01:34 PM

 

I don't know... hence the question... Kind of wanted to get an idea what people thought would be fair. Usually, if both sides don't like it, it's probably fair. 

 

My guess is that both sides would not like this trade because it fails to solve a problem for either.

 

If I'm instructing my professional scouting staff to bring me ideas based on discussions with a team, I'm telling them to forget any ideas from their system that do not include prospects that project as future front rotation mainstays. That's my threshhold. I know I'm going to eat salary in order to get an offer that gets me this. And it may be a Balazovic or the like, someone my scouts love who is hidden in the low minors.

 

Unless Greinke comes in and gives you Gibson and Berrios type performance, it's not solving a problem for the Twins. Is that the kind of production we could anticipate from Greinke in 2019?

Edited by birdwatcher, 16 November 2018 - 01:36 PM.


#23 Don Walcott

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Posted 16 November 2018 - 01:40 PM

Greinke is a very good experienced pitcher, who has adapted to losing some velocity. He's also an excellent all around athlete, who you can count on to keep himself in good shape to perform.He's also a fierce competitor. I'd bet on him doing very well through the remainder of his contract, and I'd be happy to have him pitch for us. I expect the price will be right as well.

 

Now about this Goldschmidt fella . . . .

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#24 Tomj14

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Posted 16 November 2018 - 02:01 PM

 

 

Unless Greinke comes in and gives you Gibson and Berrios type performance, it's not solving a problem for the Twins. Is that the kind of production we could anticipate from Greinke in 2019?

Why would you expect him to get worse and pitch like them two? (not that they were bad, but they weren't as good as him)


#25 Riverbrian

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Posted 16 November 2018 - 02:38 PM

The very nature of free agency is to pay more than the other teams are willing to pay to acquire the baseball player. 

 

Once this process takes place. The Players already costs in salary more than the other teams are willing to pay. 

 

If Arizona is truly thinking about a rebuild. They want the money back so they have the financial flexibility to add different pieces in the future. 

 

Sure they would like a team to give them Royce Lewis in exchange plus take on the financial responsibility for that contract in addition but that isn't going to happen. 

 

What would take to get Greinke? Take the contract and throw in a 40th round draft pick to get the deal done. Now the Twins have the contract that is already higher than any other team was willing to pay for a pitcher that is much older than when the contract was originally signed. The Twins are not going to do that. 

 

So... The Twins are going to talk to Arizona about taking on some of that financial responsibility.

 

That's when I can't answer the question anymore because the answer will be dependent on the dollar value of Royce Lewis and the Dollar Value of Lewis Thorpe and the Dollar Value of Jake Odorizzi and the Dollar Value of Travis Blankenhorn for examples. 

 

If the Twins threw in Blankenhorn for example... how much would Arizona eat in Greinke salary for Blankenhorn? If the Twins threw in Lewis Thorpe how much now? If the Twins threw in Odrizzi with his one year contract and factor in the value of that one year before FA... How much value is that worth to Arizona will become a number that they will contribute to the Twins to pay off the rest of Greinke's contract. 

 

And of course... this same game is going to played with the Yankees and Astros or any team that is looking for a sensible solution to upgrading the rotation. 

 

And then you factor in James Paxton being available with a much better contract and Kluber possibly being available and DeGrom or whoever, plus the FA's and now supply and demand works against Arizona. You can couple that with the fact that he is already making more than anybody was comfortable paying and then you start reaching the point where the return is so low that Arizona doesn't trade him because the numbers he might produce might be more than the return. 

 

I guess... I'm saying... I don't think it would take much at all. Just a willingness to take on more of the salary than other teams are. 

 

 

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#26 Major League Ready

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Posted 16 November 2018 - 02:46 PM

 

I don't know what I'm eating for lunch yet, so I can't predict the future of Grienke tomorrow or 3 years from now. All I said is Grienke has a sustained track record of excellence compared to Corbin.

There is no doubt Arizona's goal and every other team's goal to find players who are significant contributors to building a contending team. Doesn't mean they'll get that in this trade. What are the odds that young prospects flourish into significant contributors? We see top 100 prospects flame out every year.

 

I did not ask you to predict the future. I was quite specific in asking what are the odds. We have reams of historical data. You are a serious fan that knows quite well what the odds are so it's not a fair response IMO when you say you can't predict the future.

 

You do have a point that Corbin does not have a track record that gives great confidence. Perhaps another player is a better alternative but none of this changes the inevitable ... Greinke is already well past the normal prime years and the odds of elite performance at ages 36-38 are very low.


#27 TheLeviathan

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Posted 16 November 2018 - 03:00 PM

 

 

I guess... I'm saying... I don't think it would take much at all. Just a willingness to take on more of the salary than other teams are. 

 

Exactly right.He is much closer to a salary dump than many posters here seem to think.I think if Gonsalves and another guy like Blankenthorn are on the table, you could probably get them to kick in cash and take Castro.(Castro serves something of a purpose for them too.Their catching was ridiculously awful)


#28 Major League Ready

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Posted 16 November 2018 - 03:02 PM

From previous scouring of financial data I estimated the Twins had about $115M in operating expenses and players outside the 25 man.I would be shocked if we see $130M payroll again this year because I am assuming they still goof previous years revenue.

 

I would guess the payroll is going to be $100-$110M. In other words the budget for FAs is going to be $25-$35M. I don’t think spending the bulk of the budget on Greinke is the best use of that budget. I would rather see the plethora of SP prospects we have auditioned in the stacker role and spend the money on BP, MI, and 1B ion that order. We can day dream about a world where where ownership has no interest in profit and we have a $150M payroll but there will be little validity in any scenario cast from such a dream.


#29 Major League Ready

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Posted 16 November 2018 - 03:04 PM

 

Exactly right.He is much closer to a salary dump than many posters here seem to think.I think if Gonsalves and another guy like Blankenthorn are on the table, you could probably get them to kick in cash and take Castro.(Castro serves something of a purpose for them too.Their catching was ridiculously awful)

If that's the case, I withdraw my objection but I still think it's good for next year, and probably not so good past next year.

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#30 SgtSchmidt11

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Posted 16 November 2018 - 03:23 PM

I think the starting point would simply have to be the Verlander trade from 2017.Tigers got the Stro's # 3, 9, and 11 prospects.

 

Now, consider that Grienke isn't as good as Verlander.And Grienke is more expensive then Verlander, and...

 

Yea, I don't think he's going to cost very much to acquire.

 

I don't know if they would want Odo, and they might not like Gonsalves, but I think it's pretty much about the right price.Two 10-20 prospect in an average farm system would be more then enough if the D'Backs send little to no cash.

 

Edited: I thought Verlander was younger then he is.Still, I don't think it's going to cost that much.

Edited by SgtSchmidt11, 16 November 2018 - 03:25 PM.

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#31 ashburyjohn

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Posted 16 November 2018 - 06:05 PM

If that's the case, I withdraw my objection but I still think it's good for next year, and probably not so good past next year.

MLR, on an unrelated note, you seem to be unable to receive messages via the PM system - is your mailbox full?

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#32 nicksaviking

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Posted 16 November 2018 - 06:31 PM

Exactly right.He is much closer to a salary dump than many posters here seem to think.I think if Gonsalves and another guy like Blankenthorn are on the table, you could probably get them to kick in cash and take Castro.(Castro serves something of a purpose for them too.Their catching was ridiculously awful)


I agree that Greinke fits the salary dump profile. But does AZ fit that profile? If they’re rebuilding and not chasing free agents do they NEED that money off of the books? It’s not like they are a Pittsburgh or Kansas City market. Here in the much more thrifty Minnesota we’d be screaming bloody murder if the Twins choose not to eat the salary at the expense of prospects.

#33 Winston Smith

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Posted 16 November 2018 - 06:43 PM

 

The very nature of free agency is to pay more than the other teams are willing to pay to acquire the baseball player. 

 

Once this process takes place. The Players already costs in salary more than the other teams are willing to pay. 

 

If Arizona is truly thinking about a rebuild. They want the money back so they have the financial flexibility to add different pieces in the future. 

 

Sure they would like a team to give them Royce Lewis in exchange plus take on the financial responsibility for that contract in addition but that isn't going to happen. 

 

What would take to get Greinke? Take the contract and throw in a 40th round draft pick to get the deal done. Now the Twins have the contract that is already higher than any other team was willing to pay for a pitcher that is much older than when the contract was originally signed. The Twins are not going to do that. 

 

So... The Twins are going to talk to Arizona about taking on some of that financial responsibility.

 

That's when I can't answer the question anymore because the answer will be dependent on the dollar value of Royce Lewis and the Dollar Value of Lewis Thorpe and the Dollar Value of Jake Odorizzi and the Dollar Value of Travis Blankenhorn for examples. 

 

If the Twins threw in Blankenhorn for example... how much would Arizona eat in Greinke salary for Blankenhorn? If the Twins threw in Lewis Thorpe how much now? If the Twins threw in Odrizzi with his one year contract and factor in the value of that one year before FA... How much value is that worth to Arizona will become a number that they will contribute to the Twins to pay off the rest of Greinke's contract. 

 

And of course... this same game is going to played with the Yankees and Astros or any team that is looking for a sensible solution to upgrading the rotation. 

 

And then you factor in James Paxton being available with a much better contract and Kluber possibly being available and DeGrom or whoever, plus the FA's and now supply and demand works against Arizona. You can couple that with the fact that he is already making more than anybody was comfortable paying and then you start reaching the point where the return is so low that Arizona doesn't trade him because the numbers he might produce might be more than the return. 

 

I guess... I'm saying... I don't think it would take much at all. Just a willingness to take on more of the salary than other teams are. 

The Twins are well known for taking on salary that others won't so you are saying it's a done deal?

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#34 Shaitan

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Posted 16 November 2018 - 06:49 PM

 

Arizona is rebuilding.And down here, in AZ, they are talking about having to attach Grienke to a Goldschmidt deal just so someone will take him.

 

It won't cost Graterol.Gonsalves could headline a package and still have the D-backs kick in cash.

 

Gonsalves is the kind of return a team gets in a fire sale, not a rebuild.


#35 TheLeviathan

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Posted 16 November 2018 - 07:03 PM

 

I agree that Greinke fits the salary dump profile. But does AZ fit that profile? If they’re rebuilding and not chasing free agents do they NEED that money off of the books? It’s not like they are a Pittsburgh or Kansas City market. Here in the much more thrifty Minnesota we’d be screaming bloody murder if the Twins choose not to eat the salary at the expense of prospects.

 

All reports down here is that they are treating it as a need.I agree with your logic, but their owner also has a Pohladian reputation down here.


#36 TheLeviathan

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Posted 16 November 2018 - 07:04 PM

 

Gonsalves is the kind of return a team gets in a fire sale, not a rebuild.

 

I believe they see dumping Grienke as a fire sale.Goldschmidt is step one of the rebuild.

 

I think you can do both in the same offseason.When Grienke is dealt, I think we'll agree it's a shockingly low return.

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#37 Riverbrian

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Posted 16 November 2018 - 07:42 PM

 

The Twins are well known for taking on salary that others won't so you are saying it's a done deal?

 

The Twins were chosen for the nickname in the end. But, the Drunken Sailors was a real close 2nd as a reflection of their spending habits. 

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#38 Sconnie

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Posted 16 November 2018 - 07:46 PM

Depends on how much salary the Twins take on. They wouldn't have to offer much if they take on Grienke's entire salary... i.e. the Yankees trade for Stanton last year.

Probably not realistic for our Twins though. The more money Arizona eats, the better the prospects the Twins have to give up.

if the Twins take on Grienke’s full salary, the snakes need to throw in a prospect or two, decent ones
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#39 Blackjack

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Posted 16 November 2018 - 08:06 PM

Too old, too expensive, move on.


#40 ashburyjohn

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Posted 16 November 2018 - 09:05 PM

The Twins were chosen for the nickname in the end. But, the Drunken Sailors was a real close 2nd as a reflection of their spending habits. 

With John Beresford Tipton, Jr. for an owner, who hired Michael Anthony as his GM to hand out those large paychecks, those were golden years.

 

https://en.wikipedia...ire_(TV_series)

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