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What does Arizona take for Greinke?

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#1 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 16 November 2018 - 08:04 AM

OK, so we know that they have some salary issues. We know we have money to spend (and yes, I'm concerned that the FO may handcuff this team in some way)... but getting Zach shoudl be very doable if the Twins think he will age well over the next three seasons... so what would it take?

 

My first thought is that we need to figure out who we are comfortable starting. Right now, Gibson and Berrios are locks. As much as I want May starting, I think that ship has sailed. We also have Pineda, Odorizzi ,and Mejia that will probably require spots... so what's the answer?

 

Would AZ take something like Odorizzi and Gonsalves for Greinke straight up, or is that too high/too low a price to pay? Are we making a mistake by offering up Odorizzi instead of say Pineda or Mejia?

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#2 Tomj14

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Posted 16 November 2018 - 08:27 AM

I don't think Odorizzi and Gonzo are too high of price at all, Would there be a huge up roar if those two were just cut from the Twins? Sure people would be upset of Gonzo but others don't think he will even be an average major league pitcher.

I think Arizona would want more, much more upside.

 

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#3 Vanimal46

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Posted 16 November 2018 - 08:30 AM

Depends on how much salary the Twins take on. They wouldn't have to offer much if they take on Grienke's entire salary... i.e. the Yankees trade for Stanton last year.

Probably not realistic for our Twins though. The more money Arizona eats, the better the prospects the Twins have to give up.
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#4 gunnarthor

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Posted 16 November 2018 - 08:32 AM

Grienke is paid 35m for the next three years. He'll be 35 next year. He was a 4 WAR pitcher last year and a 6 WAR pitcher the year before. And Houston, Angels and Yankees are all interested in him. So he'll be expensive.

 

Sounds like Arizona is willing to add some salary back in a trade (up to 15m/year) to increase his trade value so you're really getting Greinke at 20m/yr for three years. I'm not sure what Arizona is going to do but they are getting old at some positions and have some big players leaving through FA. They might decide to go the rebuild route and punt on next season, like every other team. 

 

I think the Dbacks would understand that Lewis and Kiriloff are off the table but Graterol(#70 on pipeline), one of Gonsalves/Romero and a lottery ticket (Alcala?) might get their attention. But it really depends on the money they'll eat. The Yankees could easily match the Graterol offer and/or take on more money. I don't think there's anyway the Twins get involved in Greinke. 

Edited by gunnarthor, 16 November 2018 - 08:33 AM.

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#5 old nurse

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Posted 16 November 2018 - 08:37 AM

A trade would start with Graterol and another high ranking prospect. Those that you propose are Duensings.

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#6 Major League Ready

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Posted 16 November 2018 - 09:52 AM

 

He was 3.5 WAR in his age 35 season. What are the odds he does not regress in each of the coming three seasons and what are the odds he produces 5WAR over his age 37 & 38 seasons?If Arizona eats $10M/year and If the players you trade for him never contribute in a meaningful way, it's a decent deal if he does not decline much.

 

It would make WAAAAAY more sense to offer Corbin such an obscene amount that even the Yankees would not match. At least we would not leverage our future for a pipe dream of putting together a contender this year.

Edited by Major Leauge Ready, 16 November 2018 - 09:56 AM.

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#7 Rosterman

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Posted 16 November 2018 - 10:01 AM

You forget that it is Arizona shopping Greinke, an overpaid aging starter. A team needs to have payroll space. You have no idea how he will produce in 2020 let alone 2021.

 

Arizona would take salary themselves, and someone like Odorizzi would be a fine choice. Or would you ship Gibson and let Arizona worry about longterm negotiations. Either way, you are swapping the guy for one of our regulars.

 

The Twins could easily ship one of Stewart, Goncalves or Lettell.

 

In current A+ level and below the Twins could add a player or two. It could be done.

 

Depends on what the Twins want to get the salary down to.....$25 million a year for 3 years? What kind of player compensates for the extra $20 million or so.

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#8 beckmt

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Posted 16 November 2018 - 10:04 AM

Other targets might make more sense, but if the Dbacks would take marginal prospects back and the Twins take the whole salary it might be doable, otherwise Orderizzi and a marginal prospect or two makes sense. Do not think Yankees would give as much value as that, at least without unloading Gray first(which Twins should also kick the tires on).

If Dbacks decide to go total rebuild Twins are probably out of the Greinke sweepstakes.


#9 amjgt

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Posted 16 November 2018 - 10:09 AM

I'd much rather use those resources (money) in other ways. I might be wrong, but the rotation is one area I would be fine with as is, going into next season. 

Edited by amjgt, 16 November 2018 - 10:09 AM.

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#10 Vanimal46

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Posted 16 November 2018 - 10:09 AM

He was 3.5 WAR in his age 35 season. What are the odds he does not regress in each of the coming three seasons and what are the odds he produces 5 WAR over his age 37 & 38 seasons? If Arizona eats $10M/year and If the players you trade for him never contribute in a meaningful way, it's a decent deal if he does not decline much.

It would make WAAAAAY more sense to offer Corbin such an obscene amount that even the Yankees would not match. At least we would not leverage our future for a pipe dream of putting together a contender this year.


Grienke has sustained excellence for a long time now... Corbin had great seasons in 2013 and 2018, with meh to bad seasons in between.

Obviously there's an age difference to consider, but I have more faith in Grienke's track record than Corbin right now.

Grienke's tendencies as a fly ball / strikeout pitcher plays into the Twins' strength of a great OF too. Just some things to think about other than Grienke's salary / potential decline.
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#11 nicksaviking

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Posted 16 November 2018 - 10:14 AM

If AZ is trading him, then isn't a rebuild the indication? And if they're rebuilding, then they aren't going to need Greinke's salary to sign other free agents. So it would seem to me that it's most likely that AZ wants the best prospects in return, which means they'll eat the necessary salary to do so. 

 

I don't think this is going to be a straight salary dump situation.

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#12 Major League Ready

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Posted 16 November 2018 - 10:53 AM

 

Grienke has sustained excellence for a long time now... Corbin had great seasons in 2013 and 2018, with meh to bad seasons in between.

Obviously there's an age difference to consider, but I have more faith in Grienke's track record than Corbin right now.

Grienke's tendencies as a fly ball / strikeout pitcher plays into the Twins' strength of a great OF too. Just some things to think about other than Grienke's salary / potential decline.

 

You tell me. What percentage of the time do SPs decline significantly during their age 36-38 season. I guess it's possible my perception that it is almost certain is flawed but most SPs don't even make it to their age 36 season because they have declined beyond the point of being viable. There were people that insisted we should sign Shields too. I know my perception is not off in that case because his numbers were among the very worst in the league. Sure, there have been a few exceptions but are you really asserting these are not relatively rare exceptions and the norm is not significant decline?

 

Arizona's goal no doubt will be to get a high ceiling player(s) that will contribute significantly to the building a contender. Signing a SP that is most likely to decline is not a good strategy for building a sustainable contender that's why they would trade him. It's a strategy to be better next year with the likely outcome it makes you worse in the future.

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#13 Vanimal46

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Posted 16 November 2018 - 11:00 AM

You tell me. What percentage of the time do SPs decline significantly during their age 36-38 season. I guess it's possible my perception that it is almost certain is flawed but most SPs don't even make it to their age 36 season because they have declined beyond the point of being viable. There were people that insisted we should sign Shields too. I know my perception is not off in that case because his numbers were among the very worst in the league. Sure, there have been a few exceptions but are you really asserting these are not relatively rare exceptions and the norm is not significant decline?

Arizona's goal no doubt will be to get a high ceiling player(s) that will contribute significantly to the building a contender. Signing a SP that is most likely to decline is not a good strategy for building a sustainable contender that's why they would trade him. It's a strategy to be better next year with the likely outcome it makes you worse in the future.

I don't know what I'm eating for lunch yet, so I can't predict the future of Grienke tomorrow or 3 years from now. All I said is Grienke has a sustained track record of excellence compared to Corbin.

There is no doubt Arizona's goal and every other team's goal to find players who are significant contributors to building a contending team. Doesn't mean they'll get that in this trade. What are the odds that young prospects flourish into significant contributors? We see top 100 prospects flame out every year.

Edited by Vanimal46, 16 November 2018 - 11:00 AM.


#14 cmoss84

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Posted 16 November 2018 - 11:05 AM

Arizona is in a really interesting situation. Do they go all in or completely start over? Do they trade Goldschmidt/Greinke/Ray? Resign Corbin?

 

If they tear it down, things are going to get very interesting. I like the Greinke idea...if they are willing to take B and C list prospects (10-20 range maybe?).

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#15 Kelly Vance

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Posted 16 November 2018 - 11:10 AM

Sano for Greinke straight up?

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#16 Thrylos

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Posted 16 November 2018 - 11:11 AM

 

 

My first thought is that we need to figure out who we are comfortable starting. Right now, Gibson and Berrios are locks. As much as I want May starting, I think that ship has sailed. We also have Pineda, Odorizzi ,and Mejia that will probably require spots... so what's the answer?

 

Greinke is not the answer.Here is a fact:Other than the 2004 Boston Red Sox, no team won the World Series without a LHSP.So the Twins need to focus on a lefty (and Mejia is not the answer).On the other hand, even If their intend is not winning the WS, then they should stay away from Greinke, since he will not add anything to the team.

 

Greinke's FB velo dropped to 89.6 mph down from a career high of 94 mph.Slider down to 83.4 mph, down from 87.His change was at 86.6.That's only 3 mph differnce from his "fastball".Give him more years and he will get pelted.He is not a very good pitcher right now, esp. if he moves to the AL.As a matter of fact, I suspect that Gibson will be better than Greinke in 2019 in the same league.

Edited by Thrylos, 16 November 2018 - 11:12 AM.

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#17 RatherBeGolfing

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Posted 16 November 2018 - 11:30 AM

 

OK, so we know that they have some salary issues. We know we have money to spend (and yes, I'm concerned that the FO may handcuff this team in some way)... but getting Zach shoudl be very doable if the Twins think he will age well over the next three seasons... so what would it take?

 

My first thought is that we need to figure out who we are comfortable starting. Right now, Gibson and Berrios are locks. As much as I want May starting, I think that ship has sailed. We also have Pineda, Odorizzi ,and Mejia that will probably require spots... so what's the answer?

 

Would AZ take something like Odorizzi and Gonsalves for Greinke straight up, or is that too high/too low a price to pay? Are we making a mistake by offering up Odorizzi instead of say Pineda or Mejia?

Put yourselves in the seat as Arizona GM. Would you honestly take this deal? 


#18 Tomj14

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Posted 16 November 2018 - 11:33 AM

It is always the same, a top end rotation guy becomes available. and Twins fans say can make every excuse for going and getting him.

Go and get then botn Corbin and Greinke.

 


#19 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 16 November 2018 - 01:01 PM

 

Put yourselves in the seat as Arizona GM. Would you honestly take this deal? 

 

I don't know... hence the question... Kind of wanted to get an idea what people thought would be fair. Usually, if both sides don't like it, it's probably fair. 


#20 TheLeviathan

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Posted 16 November 2018 - 01:19 PM

Arizona is rebuilding.And down here, in AZ, they are talking about having to attach Grienke to a Goldschmidt deal just so someone will take him.

 

It won't cost Graterol.Gonsalves could headline a package and still have the D-backs kick in cash.

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