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Article: Big Splash Coming in Twins Territory

minnesota twins josh donaldson nelson cruz carlos santana daniel murphy
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#21 Tomj14

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Posted 16 November 2018 - 02:26 PM

 

Revision: Sano, Buxton and Castro for Bryant.

I would do this, but only if it includes adding a few other pieces.


#22 Tomj14

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Posted 16 November 2018 - 02:29 PM

So would trading for Santana free up the Phillies to go a little crazy in the free agent spending, seems their payroll is about the same as the Twins. I don't like that idea,


#23 terrydactyls1947

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Posted 16 November 2018 - 04:28 PM

In an article at philliesnation.com, the author postulates that the Twins are the best match for them in a Carlos Santana trade. He is suggesting offering the Twins Santana (and paying half his salary the next two years) along with a high prospect (the names Ranger Suarez and Enyel De Los Santos, #8 and #9 on the prospect list, were mentioned) for a lower level prospect. It sounds like the Phillies really want to unload the contract. So a possible trade would be: Santana and either Suarez or De Los Santos plus $15M cash to the Twins for one of the following: Akil Baddoo, Gilberto Celestine, Lamonte Wade or Jorge Alcala. I think I would take that.
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#24 Thrylos

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Posted 16 November 2018 - 04:38 PM

 

In an article at philliesnation.com, the author postulates that the Twins are the best match for them in a Carlos Santana trade. He is suggesting offering the Twins Santana (and paying half his salary the next two years) along with a high prospect (the names Ranger Suarez and Enyel De Los Santos, #8 and #9 on the prospect list, were mentioned) for a lower level prospect. It sounds like the Phillies really want to unload the contract. So a possible trade would be: Santana and either Suarez or De Los Santos plus $15M cash to the Twins for one of the following: Akil Baddoo, Gilberto Celestine, Lamonte Wade or Jorge Alcala. I think I would take that.

 

Suarez < Moya, but I would do De Los Santos for Lamonte Wade 1-1 any day of the week :)

 

Regardless De Los Santos (and Suarez FWIW) need 40 men roster spots so the balance would be 0-2 for the Twins. I really don't like Santana, but I like De Los Santos.He is future closer material

 

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#25 terrydactyls1947

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Posted 16 November 2018 - 04:59 PM

Suarez < Moya, but I would do De Los Santos for Lamonte Wade 1-1 any day of the week :)
 
Regardless De Los Santos (and Suarez FWIW) need 40 men roster spots so the balance would be 0-2 for the Twins. I really don't like Santana, but I like De Los Santos.He is future closer material


A question based on my ignorance of all the rules in baseball.....

Wouldn't only Santana need a 40-man spot? Does a trade for a minor leaguer mean you have to promote him to the 40-man roster?

#26 ashburyjohn

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Posted 16 November 2018 - 06:35 PM

A question based on my ignorance of all the rules in baseball.....

Wouldn't only Santana need a 40-man spot? Does a trade for a minor leaguer mean you have to promote him to the 40-man roster?

Both Suarez and De Los Santos appeared with the Phillies this season, which means they were added to the 40-man. Unless either team wants to expose such player to a waiver claim by all other teams, on the 40-man he'll need to stay, even after a trade.

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#27 Shaitan

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Posted 16 November 2018 - 06:46 PM

 

Revision: Sano, Buxton and Castro for Bryant.

 

Can you imagine Buxton hitting that outfield wall?


#28 DocBauer

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Posted 16 November 2018 - 10:57 PM

If someone could convince me that Donaldson has discovered yoga or Pilates to get himself over the injury hump I'd be all in! Cruz is going to flatline, but it could still be a couple years coming. He still brings value, absolutely. I doubt he falls off the cliff in 2019. I'm just not sure he fits. Of all options, I like Santana the most. He's still powerful and productive. He can play an OK 1B, catch or make an appearance at 3B in a pinch. But I would pass on all of these for McCutchen or Brantley. What's wrong with a "too crowded" OF scenario if everything works out? Rosario, Buxton, Kepler, Cave and McCutchen/Brantley play OF/DH with Kepler at 1B along with Austin, Garver, Sano, possibly Astudillo? Too much depth? Let Rocco figure it out.

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#29 terrydactyls1947

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Posted 17 November 2018 - 09:15 AM

Both Suarez and De Los Santos appeared with the Phillies this season, which means they were added to the 40-man. Unless either team wants to expose such player to a waiver claim by all other teams, on the 40-man he'll need to stay, even after a trade.


Thanks.
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#30 mike8791

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Posted 18 November 2018 - 10:00 AM

Given what’s out there however, none of the necessary additions can simply be band-aids. Whether or not the front-office goes for it in 2019 or beginning in 2020 doesn’t much matter. This club needs an impact bat in the worst way and skimping on that should draw ire from the fan base.

 

Ted, couldn't have said it better!This team has so many holes now that it would almost be like drawing to an inside straight to expect the team to be a legitimate playoff contender next year.But try they must, given the state of the division, the likely decline of the Indians, a decent core, and most importantly, a surfeit of money.

 

Much has been said about the need for, not one, but at least two outside late-inning relievers who should, at least going into the season, above their two best current relievers, Rodgers and May.This need can easily be addressed by a couple of shrewd free agent signings from a particularly deep crop this year(only a cautionary note: go for proven quality, not potential rebound candidates).

 

Assuming the FO can get that done, they should move on to filling glaring offense needs, mainly lack of both impact hitters and good OBP players.Openings exist at DH, !B, 2b/SS, and 3B(Sano cannot be assumed to bounce back given his poor lack of self control).The OF and C positions should hardly be priorities unless Kepler heading a package for a top starter is necessary(Buxton's fielding prowess makes him akeeper, at least for the first 2-3 months of the season).So your list presents some attractive candidates.I would be delighted to snare two of Donaldson, Cruz, or Santana - but two would be a minimum in an ideal world.Since up the middle defense is important, I might sacrifice a little offense, but not much.Marwin Gonzales or Addison Russell would lead the list to fill the SS position.These three new players would put a real jolt in an anemic Twins' lineup and would act as a bridge to the Twins next round of prospe cts for 2020-21.Should either Sano or Buxton mature, all the better, but at least we wouldn't be counting on them to move forward offensively.

 

The topping on this offseason has to be at least one addition who would supplant Berrios as our #1 starter.There are some trade candidates who surely must be looked at,e.g., Baumgartner, Greinke, Matz, Wheeler.Yes, there is some risk in this list, but the Twins have the minor league depth now, along with one of our major league starters(Sano or Kepler) to appeal to a rebuilding team like the Mets, Giants or Dbacksto get a trade done.

 

Completion of the above scenario is within the realm of possibility and with a new energetic manager and coaching staff, would be enough to bring back the franchise into relevance again.Failure to do this will only keep the Twins treading water and wait for the next round of prospects.That hope has been dashed too many times to believe it is a viable path anymore.If this is a really dynamic FO, they need to show more resolve in building a winner in an offseason that offers so much promise.


#31 Kelly Vance

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Posted 18 November 2018 - 11:37 AM

I remember Mark Twain's remark about stats."There are lies, damnable lies and statistics."

 

I don't care so much about OPS for a longball hitter. I really don't. I do care about slugging percentage as a show of getting extra base hits (homers). and I care about RBIs coming from the 3-4-5 slots. OPS means more to me for a table setter hitting 1 or 2, or for a guy like Grossman, who gets lots of BBs. One of the criticisms of Mauer was his willingness to take walks when a double would have better served. Well, he is in good company. Ted Williams was that way too. And I don't mind strikeouts from 3-4-5, so long as they are not a 33 percent surety. Are you listening Miggie?

 

I think for this year I would go for a couple rent-a-homer guys. Donaldson is a risk, sure. But his upside is 30-40 HRs and that translates into RBIs. He is what we thought we were getting with LoMo.He will miss some games, but we have Ehire and maybe someone else will emerge as a super utility. Subs have to play sometime. So I think the FO takes the chance.  

 

 Being RH heavy in power hitters is not so bad. Other teams are that way.We can weave Keps and Eddie into that lineup RH/LH/RH/LH and lessen the problems with that. But before I went after Nelson, I'd look for a lefty slugger with a team first attitude.  

 

Don't want Murphy. He had a nice run but we have guys we need to give a shot. I would move Polanco to 2B and get a good fielding SS. I don't see Gordon beating out Jorge. 

 

So add me to the Donaldson bandwagon. He starts at 3b and Sano moves over with Austin in a DH/1b role. Not ideal, but workable because Kiri and Rooker are waiting to contribute, hopefully soon.  

 

I leave the OF alone. I don't trade Buck and Sano. They are still young and their high ceilings make patience the smarter approach. 

 

What we need are pitchers that can hold the other team to 3 or fewer runs consistently. That translates into wins. 


#32 howieramone2

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Posted 18 November 2018 - 12:25 PM

Any 2 of those 4 would be fine with me. We need to add 2 bombers. At this point in time we can't gamble Sano will become the player we hoped he would.


#33 Doomtints

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Posted 18 November 2018 - 12:47 PM

 

I remember Mark Twain's remark about stats."There are lies, damnable lies and statistics."

 

I don't care so much about OPS for a longball hitter. I really don't. I do care about slugging percentage as a show of getting extra base hits (homers). and I care about RBIs coming from the 3-4-5 slots. OPS means more to me for a table setter hitting 1 or 2, or for a guy like Grossman, who gets lots of BBs.

 

The problem with OPS is that it counts the single event twice (once in OBP, once in SLG). For your purposes, you don't want that inaccuracy. Use OBP instead of OPS.

 

For power guys it matters less. For them, using OPS is fine.

 

In Mauer's MVP season, if you account for the fact that singles are double-counted and remove them from either calculation, his OPS drops quite a bit. But when you look at Killebrew's MVP season and account for the singles the same way his OPS doesn't change nearly as much.

Edited by Doomtints, 18 November 2018 - 12:48 PM.


#34 ashburyjohn

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Posted 18 November 2018 - 02:10 PM

 

The problem with OPS is that it counts the single event twice (once in OBP, once in SLG). For your purposes, you don't want that inaccuracy. Use OBP instead of OPS.

 

For power guys it matters less. For them, using OPS is fine.

 

In Mauer's MVP season, if you account for the fact that singles are double-counted and remove them from either calculation, his OPS drops quite a bit. But when you look at Killebrew's MVP season and account for the singles the same way his OPS doesn't change nearly as much.

A debate on metrics, which this invites, belongs in a new thread rather than in this one about player acquisition possibilities.

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#35 Sconnie

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Posted 18 November 2018 - 03:12 PM

Given the FO's apparent aversion to age there is little chance of them signing these players or trading for Santana

they did re-sign Matt Belisle

#36 DrNeau

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Posted 18 November 2018 - 03:53 PM

Donaldson to DH on 2-yr deal.

Austin 1B
Sano 3B

#37 VATwinsFan

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Posted 18 November 2018 - 08:12 PM

I've been a Twins fan since the mid-60s.For me this is the most unsettling and unpredictable off-season ever.The team is a mess and I have no idea know how the whiz kids are going to fix it (Sano and Buxton coming around would certainly help, but that's on them, not the front office).

 

It will be fascinating to see how it all plays out.


#38 Kelly Vance

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Posted 18 November 2018 - 08:39 PM

 

The problem with OPS is that it counts the single event twice (once in OBP, once in SLG). For your purposes, you don't want that inaccuracy. Use OBP instead of OPS.

 

For power guys it matters less. For them, using OPS is fine.

 

In Mauer's MVP season, if you account for the fact that singles are double-counted and remove them from either calculation, his OPS drops quite a bit. But when you look at Killebrew's MVP season and account for the singles the same way his OPS doesn't change nearly as much.

Yeah, I agree. That is what I was trying to say. Maybe we should start a new comparison for boomers.Compare RBI against Ks. 

 

But as to the subject, we need a heavy hitter or two. I like Cutch, but we have 4 outfielders. I like Donaldson as a 3-4-5-slot hitter.Iglesias or someone like that would help a lot too. Why not move Miggie over and retool the left side?Austin to DH. 

Edited by Kelly Vance, 18 November 2018 - 08:43 PM.

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#39 old nurse

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Posted 19 November 2018 - 05:38 AM

 

they did re-sign Matt Belisle

Relievers are different than position players on the aging curve.


#40 caninatl04

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Posted 25 November 2018 - 03:57 PM

The problem with OPS is that it counts the single event twice (once in OBP, once in SLG). For your purposes, you don't want that inaccuracy. Use OBP instead of OPS.
 
For power guys it matters less. For them, using OPS is fine.
 
In Mauer's MVP season, if you account for the fact that singles are double-counted and remove them from either calculation, his OPS drops quite a bit. But when you look at Killebrew's MVP season and account for the singles the same way his OPS doesn't change nearly as much.


Your intuition is backed up by statistics. It turns out that the single measure that is most highly correlated with wins looks like

OBP + 1/2 ISP.

If one thinks about "weights", a walk is worth about 0.9, a single = 1, a double = 1.4, a triple = 1.7 and a HR is worth 2.

I know it seems strange at first. What would one rather have: one HR (worth 2) or 2 singles (also worth 2)?

But its what the stats say!



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