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Article: Emptying the Notebook: Happ, Dipoto, Boras and Blueprints

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#21 snap4birds

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Posted 08 November 2018 - 10:00 AM

Thanks for the link of the minor league free agents.I wonder how many of those guys were Top 100 prospects at some point?(Not counting guys who had MLB careers like Mike Napoli, etc.)Lots of familiar names in that list.


#22 Major Leauge Ready

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Posted 08 November 2018 - 10:07 AM

 

As the staff stands now, yes. However, Falvey has said he is looking to create a model for sustainable success (not sure exact wording). That means drafting and developing better pitchers. Frankly, that’s true for any team.

 

We have been less than mediocre developing pitching and that failure has resulted in us fielding teams between mediocre and horrible. We keep looking for the easy road to success. That does not exist for a team with less than average revenue in a geographically undesirable location.

 

Here is a complete list of legit Ace SPs that signed with a team that profiles as stated above.

 

 --- Zack Greinke (overlooking of course the geographically undesirable part)

 

Here is a complete list of legit Ace SPs that signed with a team that profiles as stated above that did not sign a billion dollar TV contract the year before.

 

 ---

 

 

Edited by Major Leauge Ready, 08 November 2018 - 10:11 AM.


#23 caninatl04

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Posted 08 November 2018 - 10:43 AM

The article states:
"There were some rumblings of a Seattle fire sale brewing"

Jean Segura hit over .300 last year. And he's a SS. But the contract is hefty-- 14 million / year for 7 more years.

Closer Edwin Diaz may be untouchable, but Alex Colome might be available. His arb salary last year was north of $5 million

#24 Mike Sixel

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Posted 08 November 2018 - 11:09 AM

 

There is a good reason that Machado should be out of reach:  

Unless they spend that $ for a true ace and get a LHSP who can be a true two so these 2 can at least on paper match with the top 2 of Cleveland, Houston, and Boston,and unless they invest decent amount of $ in their pen, Machado would be just yet another layer of lipstick on a pig.

 

you completely whiffed on the point of that post.....

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I remain hopeful on Buxton and Sano.....but I'd not bet the franchise on them.


#25 Mike Sixel

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Posted 08 November 2018 - 11:10 AM

 

We have been less than mediocre developing pitching and that failure has resulted in us fielding teams between mediocre and horrible. We keep looking for the easy road to success. That does not exist for a team with less than average revenue in a geographically undesirable location.

 

Here is a complete list of legit Ace SPs that signed with a team that profiles as stated above.

 

 --- Zack Greinke (overlooking of course the geographically undesirable part)

 

Here is a complete list of legit Ace SPs that signed with a team that profiles as stated above that did not sign a billion dollar TV contract the year before.

 

 ---

 

How about signing a legit number 3 to more than a 1 year deal....that would be a huge step up.....not everyone here is saying they have to sing an "ace".....

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I remain hopeful on Buxton and Sano.....but I'd not bet the franchise on them.


#26 Major Leauge Ready

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Posted 08 November 2018 - 11:23 AM

 

The article states:
"There were some rumblings of a Seattle fire sale brewing"

Jean Segura hit over .300 last year. And he's a SS. But the contract is hefty-- 14 million / year for 7 more years.

Closer Edwin Diaz may be untouchable, but Alex Colome might be available. His arb salary last year was north of $5 million

 

Segura has more WAR than Bryce Harper over the past 3 years (11.2 vs 11.8) 

Brian Dozier had more WAR than both of them (12)

 

Harper had one huge year four years ago(2015) with a WAR of 9.3. Since then he has been good but not great and $300M was not enough?  

 

Finding $5M FAs that produce 2 WAR is a lot more important than signing guys that average 3.5 for $35M/year.

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#27 Major Leauge Ready

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Posted 08 November 2018 - 11:28 AM

 

How about signing a legit number 3 to more than a 1 year deal....that would be a huge step up.....not everyone here is saying they have to sing an "ace".....

No disagreement here, MIke. My response was targeted specifically at our inability to draft, trade for, and develop SP which is an entirely different point. We need to develop more than one good SP per decade.

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#28 Mike Sixel

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Posted 08 November 2018 - 11:34 AM

 

No disagreement here, MIke. My response was targeted specifically at our inability to draft, trade for, and develop SP which is an entirely different point. We need to develop more than one good SP per decade.

 

Agreed......it's kind of hard to believe how bad they've been, especially because we were led to believe they had great scouts (starting with their GM), and that their entire strategy was build from within.....

I remain hopeful on Buxton and Sano.....but I'd not bet the franchise on them.


#29 Tom Froemming

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Posted 08 November 2018 - 11:56 AM

 

Segura has more WAR than Bryce Harper over the past 3 years (11.2 vs 11.8) 

Brian Dozier had more WAR than both of them (12)

 

Harper had one huge year four years ago(2015) with a WAR of 9.3. Since then he has been good but not great and $300M was not enough?  

 

Finding $5M FAs that produce 2 WAR is a lot more important than signing guys that average 3.5 for $35M/year.

Is WAR really that great of a stat?

 

wRC+ 2016-18

Harper 132

Segura 117

Dozier 116

 

wOBA 2016-18

Harper .375

Dozier .346

Segura .345

 

OPS 2016-18

Harper .897

Dozier .817

Segura .803

 

I have a really hard time believing that whatever contributions Dozier and Segura make defensively and on the base paths makes up for that big of a gap in overall offensive production.

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#30 ashburyjohn

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Posted 08 November 2018 - 12:02 PM

Finding $5M FAs that produce 2 WAR is a lot more important than signing guys that average 3.5 for $35M/year.

Many years I'd agree with you, but I don't think 2019 is such a season.

 

2 WAR is pretty close to the definition of "average major leaguer". If that's all you're aiming for, and you don't have some superior players already on the roster, you're not really contending, you're just average.

 

Business analytics people at airlines and oil firms and forestry companies understand that when you have a constrained system, it may be difficult to anticipate exactly which constraints will be binding and which will be slack. Learning which, will tell you how to proceed with your strategic planning. On a baseball team, among the most crucial constraints are the 25-man roster (you can't win a pennant by using 100 cheap 1-WAR players), the 40-man roster (ditto), and your budget. Right now, we have very little likelihood of exceeding the budget until we sign some new players. Given a lot of potentially average players on board right now, at low cost, it makes sense to sign a few high-WAR potential players, even if the price-performance isn't good.

 

If you're in the habit of assuming that budget will always be the binding constraint at the very outset, you'll miss opportunities.

 

There's a difference between efficiency and effectiveness. With all our cost-efficient youngsters, I want to focus on effectiveness, for the few guys we do sign.

 

I don't know right now that $35M for 3+ WAR isn't actually a pretty good deal for this present situation, unless you have a better way to acquire 3+ WAR.

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#31 Rosterman

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Posted 08 November 2018 - 12:03 PM

I was a bit taken aback that the Twins had fallen to 20th in attendance. Where they will end up after 2019 is...scary.

 

That they are in the middle of the pack for payroll. Does the front office not realize that you spend money and put a team on the field and attendance likely will improve? Happily (but sadly) with Mauer gone and a house-cleaning continuing, the front office will be able to remake the team in their own image. Yes, the Twins CAN spend upwards of $150 million. They have to if they wish to remain competitive.

 

Yes, the Twins WILL NOT spend that much money this season as the look once again at the longterm possibilities of Sano, Buxton, Kepler, although signing any of them longer term if you have faith in them producing average or above would be prime right now, a you might be able to get the bargain you wanted last season.

 

The pain of Alex and Royce being Boras clients is that we will start hearing thoughts on "holding the players back" if either have a breakout minor league season again. An agent wants players to hit the majors as soon as possible and get that service time in and arbitration out of the way before they hit their 28th/29th year so the big money will happen. Actually, most are happy jut for the percentage of major league monies over minor league wealth.

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#32 puckstopper1

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Posted 08 November 2018 - 12:06 PM

 

How about signing a legit number 3 to more than a 1 year deal....that would be a huge step up.....not everyone here is saying they have to sing an "ace".....

 

"Sing" an ace? 

 

Do you mean like this guy Mike?:)

 

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#33 Doomtints

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Posted 08 November 2018 - 12:12 PM

Boras wasn't really picking on the Twins. He did a short bit where he told similar jokes about other teams.

 

It's not a big deal. He was just warming up the crowd by telling baseball jokes that EVERYONE in the room could understand... Yes, anyone could have told that joke.

Edited by Doomtints, 08 November 2018 - 12:16 PM.


#34 USAFChief

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Posted 08 November 2018 - 12:20 PM

 

Many years I'd agree with you, but I don't think 2019 is such a season.

 

2 WAR is pretty close to the definition of "average major leaguer". If that's all you're aiming for, and you don't have some superior players already on the roster, you're not really contending, you're just average.

 

Business analytics people at airlines and oil firms and forestry companies understand that when you have a constrained system, it may be difficult to anticipate exactly which constraints will be binding and which will be slack. Learning which, will tell you how to proceed with your strategic planning. On a baseball team, among the biggest constraints are the 25-man roster (you can't win a pennant by using 100 cheap 1-WAR players), the 40-man roster (ditto), and your budget. Right now, we have very little likelihood of exceeding the budget until we sign some new players. Given a lot of potentially average players on board right now, at low cost, it makes sense to sign a few high-WAR potential players, even if the price-performance isn't good.

 

If you're in the habit of assuming that budget will always be the binding constraint at the very outset, you'll miss opportunities.

 

There's a difference between efficiency and effectiveness. With all our cost-efficient youngsters, I want to focus on effectiveness, for the few guys we do sign.

 

I don't know right now that $35M for 3+ WAR isn't actually a pretty good deal for this present situation, unless you have a better way to acquire 3+ WAR.

I also have no interest in winning the WAR/$ spent championship. I want to watch the Twins win the World Series championship.

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#35 theBOMisthebomb

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Posted 08 November 2018 - 12:21 PM

Now I won't have to fret any longer over how to pronounce "Kennys". Is the 's' silent? Do I say the 's'? So stressful.
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#36 ashburyjohn

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Posted 08 November 2018 - 12:29 PM

Now I won't have to fret any longer over how to pronounce "Kennys". Is the 's' silent? Do I say the 's'? So stressful.

I hope the stress caused by the silent 's' isn't the only reason you're glad for the departure of Matt Belisle.

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#37 Seth Stohs

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Posted 08 November 2018 - 12:48 PM

 

Is WAR really that great of a stat?

 

wRC+ 2016-18

Harper 132

Segura 117

Dozier 116

 

wOBA 2016-18

Harper .375

Dozier .346

Segura .345

 

OPS 2016-18

Harper .897

Dozier .817

Segura .803

 

I have a really hard time believing that whatever contributions Dozier and Segura make defensively and on the base paths makes up for that big of a gap in overall offensive production.

 

Harper's ability to walk really pushes him up in those three categories. 

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#38 Major Leauge Ready

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Posted 08 November 2018 - 12:50 PM

 

Many years I'd agree with you, but I don't think 2019 is such a season.

 

2 WAR is pretty close to the definition of "average major leaguer". If that's all you're aiming for, and you don't have some superior players already on the roster, you're not really contending, you're just average.

 

Business analytics people at airlines and oil firms and forestry companies understand that when you have a constrained system, it may be difficult to anticipate exactly which constraints will be binding and which will be slack. Learning which, will tell you how to proceed with your strategic planning. On a baseball team, among the most crucial constraints are the 25-man roster (you can't win a pennant by using 100 cheap 1-WAR players), the 40-man roster (ditto), and your budget. Right now, we have very little likelihood of exceeding the budget until we sign some new players. Given a lot of potentially average players on board right now, at low cost, it makes sense to sign a few high-WAR potential players, even if the price-performance isn't good.

 

If you're in the habit of assuming that budget will always be the binding constraint at the very outset, you'll miss opportunities.

 

There's a difference between efficiency and effectiveness. With all our cost-efficient youngsters, I want to focus on effectiveness, for the few guys we do sign.

 

I don't know right now that $35M for 3+ WAR isn't actually a pretty good deal for this present situation, unless you have a better way to acquire 3+ WAR.

 

Let’s say we followed the wishes of many and signed Greinke 3 years ago. Add Mr. Popular (Marwin Gonzalez) and the RPs suggested by Lev. Here is what we can say for sure.

Add roughly $65M annually which would max out payroll. In other words, we are not adding anyone for the next 3 years and we would have to replace Gibson at the cost of his final year of arbitration.

WAR for these players over the past 3 years
----- Greinke 2.2 / 5.1 / 3.5 for an average of 3.6
----- Gonzalez .4 / 4 / 1.6 for an average of .8
----- Allen 1 / 1.5 / 0 for an average of .833
----- Herrera 2.0 / .1 / .4
----- Total = 6.07 wins

WAR for these players last year was
----- Greinke = 3.5 for an average of 3.6
----- Gonzalez = 1.6 for an average of .8
----- Allen = 0
----- Herrera .4
----- Total = 4.5 wins

 

Let’s use the last 3 years instead of last year because that’s more optimistic. Let’s assume Greinke does not regress even though that is not consistent with history. Let’s forget Gonzalez is basically replacing Escobar who had two war before the deadline and let’s pretend Greinke replaces a replacement level player even though I am pretty sure Mejia is worth at least 1 WAR. We have a 500 team under this generous scenario with no available payroll for the next 3 years.

 

There is no scenario where paying 10M/WAR is effective. We would need to spend an incremental $200M to field a team reasonably close to the top AL teams. That is the definition of an ineffective plan. Actually, I can make-up a far fetched scenario where we have several prospects play at a very high level on costs controlled contracts and we add once such player. We are a VERY long way from that scenario right now.

 

Another, perhaps simpler way to evaluate this specific year is that we are in need of several players. If we an incremental $70M on two high profile players we pick up 7 war and have some holes to fill. If we spend $35M on 7 players that generaten 2 WAR we pick up 14 (double) WAR and have $40M to spend next year. I think it's pretty clear which approach has more value to any team, especially a mid-market or small market team. 

Edited by Major Leauge Ready, 08 November 2018 - 01:11 PM.


#39 Seth Stohs

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Posted 08 November 2018 - 12:52 PM

 

The pain of Alex and Royce being Boras clients is that we will start hearing thoughts on "holding the players back" if either have a breakout minor league season again. An agent wants players to hit the majors as soon as possible and get that service time in and arbitration out of the way before they hit their 28th/29th year so the big money will happen. Actually, most are happy jut for the percentage of major league monies over minor league wealth.

 

Because they areelite prospects, service time will be a factor regardless of their agent of choice. 

 

This front office showed how much service time is a factor in September, so it's probably more about front offices than agents. 


#40 Major Leauge Ready

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Posted 08 November 2018 - 01:03 PM

 

Is WAR really that great of a stat?

 

wRC+ 2016-18

Harper 132

Segura 117

Dozier 116

 

wOBA 2016-18

Harper .375

Dozier .346

Segura .345

 

OPS 2016-18

Harper .897

Dozier .817

Segura .803

 

I have a really hard time believing that whatever contributions Dozier and Segura make defensively and on the base paths makes up for that big of a gap in overall offensive production.

 

No. It's quite suspect and I think that's the general feeling here but it still gets used often because of the summary nature of this measure. It also does not need to be precise in this context. Look down the list any year and the ranking by WAR looks pretty reasonable. In other words, it's hard to justify the gigantic cost and risk associated with this type of contract (see Heyward) for a player that has not ranked as elite in 4 years. 

 

It appears to me that one great year gives players a higher profile than 1 great year of performance deserves. Compare Harper's first six years to Albert Pujlos. It's not even close

Edited by Major Leauge Ready, 08 November 2018 - 01:05 PM.

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