Jump to content

Providing independent coverage of the Minnesota Twins.
Subscribe to Twins Daily Email
Photo

Can the Twins trade for Jon Gray?

  • Please log in to reply
23 replies to this topic

#1 gunnarthor

gunnarthor

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 9,223 posts

Posted 06 November 2018 - 10:44 AM

I think the Twins should move Kepler because they have a pretty good player in Kiriloff coming up and Cave and Wade could hold down the corner until he's ready.

 

Kepler has been a pretty steady 2-3 WARish player in the corner while making some improvements but still having a really low babip. If his babip were normal, his stats would look a lot better. Some team might really be willing to bet on him making that jump. He's also under team control for four more seasons (through his age 29 season).

 

In Colorado both Carlos Gonzalez and Parra are both free agents. David Dahl will take over for one of them but they still have an opening in a corner and probably still have a window in the tough AL West. They have a lot of young arms - Freeland (super stud), Marguez, Anderson and Gray each threw at least 170 innings and Peter Lambert (#99 on pipeline) got to AAA last year. Former top prospect Jeff Hoffman spent most of last year in AAA and didn't look great in the PCL. Gray's stats weren't great at first glance and he was actually sent down to AAA at some point. He was left off the NLCS roster after the Cubs hammered him in the wild card game. Is there a scenario where a Kepler/Gray swap could happen? Gray will be 27 next year.

 

Kepler and Gray have both been worth exactly 7 bWAR the last three seasons. Kepler has one extra year of control. Gray probably has higher upside but at 27 it's worth asking if he's got anymore improvement left. 

 

  • nclahammer likes this

#2 jkcarew

jkcarew

    Chattanooga Lookouts

  • Members
  • 670 posts

Posted 06 November 2018 - 11:16 AM

I do think Jon Gray would be a material upgrade to the 2019 rotation.Real possibilities moving to a different home park...if he can reverse the HR spike at the same time.

 

But, with the number of young starters the Twins have on the roster, I would see the acquisition of another starter of Gray's ilk as a 'win now' move...and, for that reason, maybe more likely that the Twins would spend prospects, potentially pitching prospects, rather than Kepler in that type of deal?

 

Anyway, he is an interesting guy.

  • nclahammer likes this

#3 mlhouse

mlhouse

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 570 posts

Posted 06 November 2018 - 11:36 AM

I am going to use all of these topics about getting this guy and getting that guy to demonstrate how the Twins organization acts with their prospect versus other organizations.  

 

ANd, while I get that Jon Gray was a top 3 pick in the MLB Draft and Jake Reed was a 5th rounder, Gray a starter and Reed a reliever,it is somewhat of their comparisons in their minor league career that make the overall treatment so striking.

 

Reed was drafted in 2014, Gray 2013. When Jake Reed began his professional career as a 21 year old he was almost unhittable.In 20 appearances between Elizabethton and Cedar Rapids he had a 0.29 ERA and a 0.452 WHIP, and got an unusual Fall League invite as a partial first year professional player that he turned in a 0.71 ERA performance over 10 appearances.

 

So far so good, and even the Twins recognized that they need to advance this guy.So, in 2015 he started the year in A+ ball in Ft Myers.He was basically unhittable there too.IN Reed's first 54 innings of professional baseball between R-A-Arizona Fall-A+, he gave up 2 earned runs, a 0.33 ERA.He did not pitch as well in his call up to AA, but he returned to the Arizona Fall League with 10 innings pitched without giving up an earned run.In 2016 he started again in Chatanooga where he pitched better and then ended the season in AAA were he pitched very well with a 1.69 ERA. He basically repeated 2016 in 2017 between Chattanooga and Rochester, and spent the entire 2018 season in AAA Rochester.

 

Gray, on the other hand, pitched in Rookie and A+ in 2013 in his draft season.HE was sent to AA in 2014 as a 22 year old with mediocre results, 3.91 ERA over 24 starts.Then started 2015 in AAA before making 9 starts with the ROckies.In 2016 he was a full fledged member of the starting rotation making 29 starts, made 20 starts with injury time in 2017, and in 2017 made 31 starts as a 26 year old pitcher.His minor league statistics are not that phenomenal for a player pickd so high in the draft, and his major league stats are pretty mediocre as well but as a 26 year old he has 3 full and one partial major league seasons under his belt.

 

Reed, on the other hand, has a 1.92 career ERA at AAA in over 61 appearance, phenomenal success at the lower level minors and in the Arizona Fall Leagues has not even been given a crack, even as a September call up, as a 26 year old. 

 

Again, if I were the agent of a college draft pick of the Minnesota Twins with any draft eligibility left I would recommend that they pass on the Twins.Even with tremendous success in the minors the Twins are going to move you along at a snails pace and bring in a bunch of washed up waiver wire guys over you.The signing bonus would have to be at premium levels to counter the 2 extra years that you are probably going to spend in the minors before you are even given a chance.

 

Beating a dead horse?Probably but then there is example after example of these cases.


#4 gunnarthor

gunnarthor

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 9,223 posts

Posted 06 November 2018 - 11:44 AM

 

I am going to use all of these topics about getting this guy and getting that guy to demonstrate how the Twins organization acts with their prospect versus other organizations.  

 

ANd, while I get that Jon Gray was a top 3 pick in the MLB Draft and Jake Reed was a 5th rounder, Gray a starter and Reed a reliever,it is somewhat of their comparisons in their minor league career that make the overall treatment so striking.

 

Reed was drafted in 2014, Gray 2013. When Jake Reed began his professional career as a 21 year old he was almost unhittable.In 20 appearances between Elizabethton and Cedar Rapids he had a 0.29 ERA and a 0.452 WHIP, and got an unusual Fall League invite as a partial first year professional player that he turned in a 0.71 ERA performance over 10 appearances.

 

So far so good, and even the Twins recognized that they need to advance this guy.So, in 2015 he started the year in A+ ball in Ft Myers.He was basically unhittable there too.IN Reed's first 54 innings of professional baseball between R-A-Arizona Fall-A+, he gave up 2 earned runs, a 0.33 ERA.He did not pitch as well in his call up to AA, but he returned to the Arizona Fall League with 10 innings pitched without giving up an earned run.In 2016 he started again in Chatanooga where he pitched better and then ended the season in AAA were he pitched very well with a 1.69 ERA. He basically repeated 2016 in 2017 between Chattanooga and Rochester, and spent the entire 2018 season in AAA Rochester.

 

Gray, on the other hand, pitched in Rookie and A+ in 2013 in his draft season.HE was sent to AA in 2014 as a 22 year old with mediocre results, 3.91 ERA over 24 starts.Then started 2015 in AAA before making 9 starts with the ROckies.In 2016 he was a full fledged member of the starting rotation making 29 starts, made 20 starts with injury time in 2017, and in 2017 made 31 starts as a 26 year old pitcher.His minor league statistics are not that phenomenal for a player pickd so high in the draft, and his major league stats are pretty mediocre as well but as a 26 year old he has 3 full and one partial major league seasons under his belt.

 

Reed, on the other hand, has a 1.92 career ERA at AAA in over 61 appearance, phenomenal success at the lower level minors and in the Arizona Fall Leagues has not even been given a crack, even as a September call up, as a 26 year old. 

 

Again, if I were the agent of a college draft pick of the Minnesota Twins with any draft eligibility left I would recommend that they pass on the Twins.Even with tremendous success in the minors the Twins are going to move you along at a snails pace and bring in a bunch of washed up waiver wire guys over you.The signing bonus would have to be at premium levels to counter the 2 extra years that you are probably going to spend in the minors before you are even given a chance.

 

Beating a dead horse?Probably but then there is example after example of these cases.

Not sure this is relevant to the thread at hand. But comparing a top 3 pick to a fourth rounder is odd, to say the least. There are hundreds of Jake Reeds in the minors. Nothing about him is unique to the Twins. Just look at any random team from any random draft year and you'll see some college arm putting up stupid numbers and never making the show. I was looking at James Paxton so I just clicked on Seattle's 2009 draft and there you have Brian Moran, who was a late pick. At 23, he posted a combined 2.62 era between AA and AAA with a krate over 10 per nine. And he did that after having dominated the AFL the year before. He's never made the majors either although he's still trying.

  • Vanimal46 likes this

#5 Doomtints

Doomtints

    Joe's Shades™

  • Members
  • 2,850 posts

Posted 06 November 2018 - 11:48 AM

Gray led the league in earned runs last year. His stats on the road were worse than his stats at home. His W-L is inflated from being on a good team.

I'm skeptical of his WAR value.


#6 lecroy24fan

lecroy24fan

    Member

  • Members
  • 165 posts

Posted 06 November 2018 - 12:04 PM

On top of the earned runs he was also demoted. So led in ER without pitching a full season. That alarms me.


#7 mlhouse

mlhouse

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 570 posts

Posted 06 November 2018 - 12:09 PM

 

Not sure this is relevant to the thread at hand. But comparing a top 3 pick to a fourth rounder is odd, to say the least. There are hundreds of Jake Reeds in the minors. Nothing about him is unique to the Twins. Just look at any random team from any random draft year and you'll see some college arm putting up stupid numbers and never making the show. I was looking at James Paxton so I just clicked on Seattle's 2009 draft and there you have Brian Moran, who was a late pick. At 23, he posted a combined 2.62 era between AA and AAA with a krate over 10 per nine. And he did that after having dominated the AFL the year before. He's never made the majors either although he's still trying.

 

Moran's career AAA stats do not compare to Reed's.Reed has a 1.92 career ERA, Moran 3.93. So, while I get the comparison of their lower level performance, Moran did not replicate that at the top of the minors.  

 

I am sure there are lots of examples of these situations.That is not the point.Instead, it is a demonstration of the pattern within the organization. 

 

I think it is ludicrous that a player like Jake Reed, at 26 years old, has not thrown a single pitch for the Twins and probably never will. 

 

I find it ridiculous that Luke Bard, who was a high draft pick and will be 28 next season, has not thrown a single pitch for the Twins and probably never will.At least the Angels gave him a chance that the TWins never would, and although his stint with the Angels wasn't that successful, how is Matt Belisle any better? 

  • Danchat likes this

#8 birdwatcher

birdwatcher

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 3,554 posts

Posted 06 November 2018 - 12:10 PM

Gray was pushed through the minors too fast and it ruined him.;)


#9 cmoss84

cmoss84

    Ft Myers

  • Members
  • 261 posts
  • LocationBakersfield, CA

Posted 06 November 2018 - 12:53 PM

A change of scenery might be what Gray needs. Unfortunately, I think it would take more than just Kepler to get him. He had a rough year, but still flashes ace stuff. 

 

Definitely worth looking into!

I'd rather have a bottle in front of me than a frontal lobotomy.


#10 nicksaviking

nicksaviking

    Billy G.O.A.T

  • Twins Mods
  • 12,735 posts

Posted 06 November 2018 - 01:01 PM

I'd be interested in Gray. He throws hard and doesn't issue too many free passes, I think those are two strong indicators that a pitcher who hasn't lived up to his potential can eventually reach it. I've always been interested in Nathan Eovaldi for that reason as well. 

 

Congrats to their recent success, but the Rockies also seem to be one of those late-to-the-analytics-party teams, which makes me much more interested in their players. They might not be doing the things that best maximize some of their players' talents that other teams might be willing to try.


#11 RatherBeGolfing

RatherBeGolfing

    Cedar Rapids

  • Members
  • 85 posts

Posted 06 November 2018 - 01:15 PM

Jon Gray, Sonny Gray, get all the Gray's;)

  • Riverbrian likes this

#12 Mike Sixel

Mike Sixel

    Now living in Oregon

  • Members
  • 27,284 posts

Posted 06 November 2018 - 02:00 PM

I suggested trading for him last summer, so I'm on board. Kepler and a random starting pitching prospect works for me, as much as I love Kepler (or Rosario, who people seem to be forgetting was not all that good in the 2nd half last year). I am confident a better run team, not in CO, can help this guy be very good.

I remain hopeful on Buxton and Sano.....but I'd not bet the franchise on them.


#13 Riverbrian

Riverbrian

    Goofy Moderator

  • Twins Mods
  • 19,804 posts
  • LocationGrand Forks, ND

Posted 06 November 2018 - 02:33 PM

I'd certainly roll the dice on Gray but the thing I question is: What does Colorado accomplish by trading him to us? 

 

Colorado is a contender and finding pitching has always been their number one issue while trying to build winners. 

 

They certainly don't need prospects or projects (Kepler) in return to fill the offensive holes that are developing... they need proven major league ball-players. Rolling the dice on Kepler seems unnecessarily risky as a return. 

 

Trading him to the Cubs for a Schwarber makes more sense to me. Or the Brewers for Aguilar or Thames. 

 

But yeah... I'd welcome him to the Twins... I just don't see how we are a match for what the Rockies need.  

  • DocBauer likes this

A Skeleton walks into a bar and says... "Give me a beer... And a mop".

 

President of the "Baseball Player Positional Flexibility" Club 

Founded 4-23-16 

 

Strike Zone Automation Advocate


#14 TheLeviathan

TheLeviathan

    Twins News Team

  • Members
  • 15,430 posts

Posted 06 November 2018 - 02:33 PM

I think the price is likely too high for the production so far.And I'm always wary of NL pitchers.

  • DocBauer likes this

#15 Brandon Warne

Brandon Warne

    Junior Member

  • Members
  • 1,168 posts

Posted 06 November 2018 - 03:13 PM

When I wrote my offseason blueprint, I initially had Jon Gray in there instead of Sonny Gray.

 

Ran it by a Rockies friend of mine, and he said they don't really make those trades.

 

Still, I'd trade 2-3 nice prospects for him.

  • Mike Sixel and Vanimal46 like this

Follow me on Twitter: @Brandon_Warne

Follow Zone Coverage on Twitter: @ZoneCoverageMN


#16 nicksaviking

nicksaviking

    Billy G.O.A.T

  • Twins Mods
  • 12,735 posts

Posted 06 November 2018 - 04:20 PM

 

I'd certainly roll the dice on Gray but the thing I question is: What does Colorado accomplish by trading him to us? 

 

Colorado is a contender and finding pitching has always been their number one issue while trying to build winners. 

 

They certainly don't need prospects or projects (Kepler) in return to fill the offensive holes that are developing... they need proven major league ball-players. Rolling the dice on Kepler seems unnecessarily risky as a return. 

 

Trading him to the Cubs for a Schwarber makes more sense to me. Or the Brewers for Aguilar or Thames. 

 

But yeah... I'd welcome him to the Twins... I just don't see how we are a match for what the Rockies need.  

 

It seems to me that the Rockies are one of those teams where you constantly have to ask "What the hell were they thinking?"

 

I don't understand half of their moves, but their affinity for left handed outfielders as unrivaled.

  • Riverbrian likes this

#17 Major Leauge Ready

Major Leauge Ready

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 1,618 posts

Posted 06 November 2018 - 04:31 PM

If Gibson won't sign an extension, I would consider a deal centered around Gray and Gibson but I would prefer to extend Gibson.

Edited by Major Leauge Ready, 06 November 2018 - 04:34 PM.

  • Mike Sixel likes this

#18 gunnarthor

gunnarthor

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 9,223 posts

Posted 06 November 2018 - 04:31 PM

 

I'd certainly roll the dice on Gray but the thing I question is: What does Colorado accomplish by trading him to us? 

 

Colorado is a contender and finding pitching has always been their number one issue while trying to build winners. 

 

They certainly don't need prospects or projects (Kepler) in return to fill the offensive holes that are developing... they need proven major league ball-players. Rolling the dice on Kepler seems unnecessarily risky as a return. 

 

Trading him to the Cubs for a Schwarber makes more sense to me. Or the Brewers for Aguilar or Thames. 

 

But yeah... I'd welcome him to the Twins... I just don't see how we are a match for what the Rockies need.  

They are losing two corner OFers and only have one replacement (Dahl). They need to upgrade a corner spot. And Blackmon was a disaster in center for them so Kepler could take over there if needed. They need better OF defense.

 

Gray was a bad pitcher last year. He's 27. They might have already seen everything they'll get from him. Pitchers that can put up 5.12 eras in Coors Field aren't that hard to find. Gray obviously has some buy low value in him but he also just might be a bad pitcher. By bWAR, Kepler and Gray have been identical in value for three years. Gray has more upside potential, Kepler has been more consistent and has some upside potential as well. 

  • Danchat likes this

#19 Mike Sixel

Mike Sixel

    Now living in Oregon

  • Members
  • 27,284 posts

Posted 06 November 2018 - 04:44 PM

 

If Gibson won't sign an extension, I would consider a deal centered around Gray and Gibson but I would prefer to extend Gibson.

 

I could see that making sense for the Twins....and probably CO, given how they work. I'd also rather extend Gibson, but will he do that? I wouldn't if the team doesn't add some FAs.....and look like they are trying to win.

I remain hopeful on Buxton and Sano.....but I'd not bet the franchise on them.


#20 Thrylos

Thrylos

    Twins World Champions in 2019

  • Members
  • 9,712 posts
  • LocationLehigh Valley, PA, USA
  • Twitter: thrylos98

Posted 06 November 2018 - 05:25 PM

Home 4.91 ERA, 3.90 FIP, 3.16 xFIP
Away 5.34 ERA, 4.28 FIP, 3.80 xFIP.

 

Seriously penalized by Colorado's Defense.On the other hand FB velo - 1mph, slider velo close to - 2 mph from 2017.

 

2 years of control. He'd probably slot behind Gibson and Berrios and ahead of Odorizzi.Good number 3/4 in a contender. Really, the Twins should look higher.They need a pitcher who will slot ahead of Berrios in order to compete with the other AL contenders rotations.

If Colorado takes Odorizzi plus prospects off the Twins' hands, it will fine.On the other hand, I'd rather go for someone like Zach Wheeler and Patrick Corbin for 1-2, slot Berrios and Gibson for 3 and 4 and call it an off season, as far as the rotation goes ;)

Edited by Thrylos, 06 November 2018 - 05:25 PM.

-----
Blogging Twins since 2007 at The Tenth Inning Stretch
http://tenthinningst...h.blogspot.com/
twitter: @thrylos98