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Article: Seth's Preliminary Top 30 Twins Prospect Rankings

royce lewis alex kirilloff brusdar graterol trevor larnach wander javier
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#41 Seth Stohs

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Posted 06 November 2018 - 07:13 PM

 

Got thinking after reading the above.Has anyone heard if there was serious damage to the ballpark in Pensacola?It is right on the water near the point where the hurricane came on shore.

 

I've had a chat with someone from the Blue Wahoos recently and nothing was mentioned. We'll cover them more in the near future.

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#42 Tom Froemming

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Posted 06 November 2018 - 08:21 PM

Just for fun, here are some career numbers. Leader among the group in bold ...

 

MLB

Gonsalves 6.57 ERA, 2.03 WHIP, 0.73 K:BB in 24.2 IP

Littell 6.20 ERA, 1.77 WHIP, 1.27 K:BB in 20.1 IP

Stewart 3.68 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 1.33 K:BB in 36.2 IP

 

AAA

Gonsalves 3.44 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 1.86 K:BB in 123 IP

Thorpe 3.32 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 4.33 K:BB in 21.2 IP

Littell 3.57 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 2.45 K:BB in 106 IP

Stewart 4.34 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 2.69 K:BB in 45.2 IP

 

AA

Gonsalves 2.23 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 3.00 K:BB in 182 IP

Thorpe 3.71 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 4.31 K:BB in 114 IP

Littell 3.15 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 3.55 K:BB in 108.2 IP

Stewart 3.87 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, 1.55 K:BB in 237 IP

 

Minors (all levels)

Gonsalves 2.46 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 2.66 K:BB in 599 IP

Thorpe 3.18 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 3.53 K:BB in 328.1 IP

Littell 3.36 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 3.41 K:BB in 667.1 IP

Stewart 3.36 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 1.89 K:BB in 570.2 IP

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#43 Thrylos

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Posted 06 November 2018 - 08:35 PM

 

Just for fun, here are some career numbers. Leader among the group in bold ...

 

MLB

Gonsalves 6.57 ERA, 2.03 WHIP, 0.73 K:BB in 24.2 IP

Littell 6.20 ERA, 1.77 WHIP, 1.27 K:BB in 20.1 IP

Stewart 3.68 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 1.33 K:BB in 36.2 IP

 

AAA

Gonsalves 3.44 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 1.86 K:BB in 123 IP

Thorpe 3.32 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 4.33 K:BB in 21.2 IP

Littell 3.57 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 2.45 K:BB in 106 IP

Stewart 4.34 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 2.69 K:BB in 45.2 IP

 

AA

Gonsalves 2.23 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 3.00 K:BB in 182 IP

Thorpe 3.71 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 4.31 K:BB in 114 IP

Littell 3.15 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 3.55 K:BB in 108.2 IP

Stewart 3.87 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, 1.55 K:BB in 237 IP

 

Minors (all levels)

Gonsalves 2.46 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 2.66 K:BB in 599 IP

Thorpe 3.18 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 3.53 K:BB in 328.1 IP

Littell 3.36 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 3.41 K:BB in 667.1 IP

Stewart 3.36 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 1.89 K:BB in 570.2 IP

 

 

I'd argue that MLB numbers are a much better indicator for potential future MLB performance (which is what prospects should be ranked accordingly) than any minor league numbers.

 

On the other hand, once in the show, one is not a prospect in my book, since he made it ;)

 

Edited by Thrylos, 06 November 2018 - 08:35 PM.

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#44 beckmt

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Posted 07 November 2018 - 02:46 AM

Think Stewart and Arraez are too low and Gonsalves is way too high. Great list.
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#45 clutterheart

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Posted 07 November 2018 - 06:07 AM

Looking through the list:

Twins are finally building some depth at catcher. Hope Jeffers can stick there.

3B remains this systems biggest weakness - especially since Blankenhorn isn't likley to stick.

Miranda, Betchold & Baddoo didnt have the breakout seasons i thought they would. Charles Mack got paid way over slot but he didnt get going. I thought he had a chance to start out strong.

Why isn't Urbina on this list? Id slide him in at 10.
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#46 SgtSchmidt11

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Posted 07 November 2018 - 07:36 AM

 

Only if you look at it wrong. No one says no to having both Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter in the system.

I see what you're saying, but irregardless of the season Javier has, if Royce or Kirolloff keep it up, I don't see them getting dethroned.

 

I also don't see them losing their Rookie eligibility this year either, barring dropoffs in production from Kepler or Rosario (or injuries to the same).


#47 ChrisKnutson

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Posted 07 November 2018 - 07:50 AM

Looking through the list:
Twins are finally building some depth at catcher. Hope Jeffers can stick there.
3B remains this systems biggest weakness - especially since Blankenhorn isn't likley to stick.
Miranda, Betchold & Baddoo didnt have the breakout seasons i thought they would. Charles Mack got paid way over slot but he didnt get going. I thought he had a chance to start out strong.
Why isn't Urbina on this list? Id slide him in at 10.


Besides the lack of depth at 3B, the system is otherwise looking really good, but with Sano’s health issues being the way they are, I gotta believe the organization is thinking about drafting a college 3B in the early rounds of next year’s draft.
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#48 Seth Stohs

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Posted 07 November 2018 - 08:36 AM

 

Looking through the list:

Twins are finally building some depth at catcher. Hope Jeffers can stick there.

3B remains this systems biggest weakness - especially since Blankenhorn isn't likley to stick.

Miranda, Betchold & Baddoo didnt have the breakout seasons i thought they would. Charles Mack got paid way over slot but he didnt get going. I thought he had a chance to start out strong.

Why isn't Urbina on this list? Id slide him in at 10.

 

Miranda was terrific and busted out as a prospect, at least for me, in 2018. After a slow start in CR, he took off. He's a legit 3B prospect in my opinion. Bechtold's season was disappointing and ended with a concussion, but I wouldn't give up on him either. Baddoo didn't' have the batting average, but everything else, across the board, was a strong step for his first full season. Mack is a high school kid coming to pro ball, making anything out of his debut is probably not too important. 

 

We're still deciding on whether or not to include Urbina in the prospect handbook. But generally, ,we only include players in the GCL and up. Urbina would probably be Top 10 though, yes. 

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#49 Seth Stohs

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Posted 07 November 2018 - 08:37 AM

 

Besides the lack of depth at 3B, the system is otherwise looking really good, but with Sano’s health issues being the way they are, I gotta believe the organization is thinking about drafting a college 3B in the early rounds of next year’s draft.

 

Unless it's'a Nick Senzel type, I'd much rather that they take shortstops and move them to third base if or when needed. 

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#50 MN_ExPat

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Posted 07 November 2018 - 08:57 AM

Came across this MLB stat line of some "Soft Tossing" Lefty and it reminded me that we we should all temper our expectations some from the SSS (both good and bad/poor).  

 

- 5.54 ERA / 50.1 IP / 55 H / 34 R / 5 HR / 33 BB / 20 SO / 5.51 FIP / 1.748 WHIP

 

Not the best debut by any stretch. The player's name... a certain HOF'r by the name of... Tom Glavine. Who we all know went on to have an "meh" career ;).

 

Note: I'm not saying the Gonsalves will be a HOF type player, or even have a lengthy career for that matter (Yes, his debut was not pretty). However, when you break down his appearances, he did do some things well and had some good moments (baby steps, not everybody can be Blake Snell or Walker Buehler). This gives him something to work on going into ST.  

 

So for now, I'd keep him at least in the Top 15 personally. That may change, but I'm willing to give him a bit of a longer leash based on his potential.

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#51 caninatl04

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Posted 07 November 2018 - 10:17 AM

 

Just for fun, here are some career numbers. Leader among the group in bold ...

 

MLB

Gonsalves 6.57 ERA, 2.03 WHIP, 0.73 K:BB in 24.2 IP

Littell 6.20 ERA, 1.77 WHIP, 1.27 K:BB in 20.1 IP

Stewart 3.68 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 1.33 K:BB in 36.2 IP

 

AAA

Gonsalves 3.44 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 1.86 K:BB in 123 IP

Thorpe 3.32 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 4.33 K:BB in 21.2 IP

Littell 3.57 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 2.45 K:BB in 106 IP

Stewart 4.34 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 2.69 K:BB in 45.2 IP

 

AA

Gonsalves 2.23 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 3.00 K:BB in 182 IP

Thorpe 3.71 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 4.31 K:BB in 114 IP

Littell 3.15 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 3.55 K:BB in 108.2 IP

Stewart 3.87 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, 1.55 K:BB in 237 IP

 

Minors (all levels)

Gonsalves 2.46 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 2.66 K:BB in 599 IP

Thorpe 3.18 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 3.53 K:BB in 328.1 IP

Littell 3.36 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 3.41 K:BB in 667.1 IP

Stewart 3.36 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 1.89 K:BB in 570.2 IP

Just curious-- what would Berrios's numbers look like both in the minors and then after, say, 20-30 MLB innings.


#52 caninatl04

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Posted 07 November 2018 - 10:21 AM

Kind of a tangential question, but thinking of the promotions throughout the year, what is the role of AAA?Is it a development rung above AA or a set of injury replacement players for the Twins (or both?)?

 

Also, any minor league system that has a player like Rooker at #9 must be the envy of at least 25 clubs.


#53 Tom Froemming

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Posted 07 November 2018 - 10:34 AM

 

Just curious-- what would Berrios's numbers look like both in the minors and then after, say, 20-30 MLB innings.

Sure. For MLB I cut it off at his first 32 innings.

 

MLB: 9.28 ERA, 1.94 WHIP, 1.78 K:BB in his first 32 IP
AAA: 2.51 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 4.10 K:BB in 229.2 IP
AA: 3.22 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 3.33 K:BB in 131.1 IP
Minors (all levels): 2.77 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 3.83 K:BB in 591.2 IP

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#54 caninatl04

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Posted 07 November 2018 - 11:01 AM

Sure. For MLB I cut it off at his first 32 innings.
 
MLB: 9.28 ERA, 1.94 WHIP, 1.78 K:BB in his first 32 IP
AAA: 2.51 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 4.10 K:BB in 229.2 IP
AA: 3.22 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 3.33 K:BB in 131.1 IP
Minors (all levels): 2.77 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 3.83 K:BB in 591.2 IP


Thank you for doing this. I guess I have two takeaways. First, obviously Berrios had a better minor league career if one concentrates on WHIP. Roughly 1.0 versus 1.2-1.4 for the others.

But, and I thank you again for this, we see the inherent difficulty in projecting anything from a pitcher's first 30 innings in the bigs.

There is still hope for Gonsalves et al.
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#55 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 07 November 2018 - 11:38 AM

 

I'd argue that MLB numbers are a much better indicator for potential future MLB performance (which is what prospects should be ranked accordingly) than any minor league numbers.

 

On the other hand, once in the show, one is not a prospect in my book, since he made it ;)

 

There are plenty of guys that did well in their debuts that went on to not have a MLB career.And there are plenty of guys who did poorly in the MLB debut that went on to have a good career. 

 

Not trashing Stewart per se, but I think we need more than a 30 IP sample size to come to any reasonable conclusion on any of them. 

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#56 ChrisKnutson

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Posted 07 November 2018 - 02:46 PM

Unless it's'a Nick Senzel type, I'd much rather that they take shortstops and move them to third base if or when needed.


100% agree, but in the meantime, ‘if’ he can prove that he can handle ML pitching, I wouldn’t mind seeing Gordon at 3rd. May not be ideal, but I’d find it hard to complain about Matt Duffy-like production.

#57 Thrylos

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Posted 07 November 2018 - 02:52 PM

 

Came across this MLB stat line of some "Soft Tossing" Lefty and it reminded me that we we should all temper our expectations some from the SSS (both good and bad/poor).  

 

- 5.54 ERA / 50.1 IP / 55 H / 34 R / 5 HR / 33 BB / 20 SO / 5.51 FIP / 1.748 WHIP

 

Not the best debut by any stretch. The player's name... a certain HOF'r by the name of... Tom Glavine. Who we all know went on to have an "meh" career ;).

 

Note: I'm not saying the Gonsalves will be a HOF type player, or even have a lengthy career for that matter (Yes, his debut was not pretty). However, when you break down his appearances, he did do some things well and had some good moments (baby steps, not everybody can be Blake Snell or Walker Buehler). This gives him something to work on going into ST.  

 

So for now, I'd keep him at least in the Top 15 personally. That may change, but I'm willing to give him a bit of a longer leash based on his potential.

 

Glavine did that in his 3rd pro season, age 21, two years younger and 3 pro season's ahead of Gonsalves.At Gonsalves's age he went 14-8 with 3.68 ERA, pitched 186 innings, with 1.14 WHIP.Slightly different outcome there.

 

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#58 tarheeltwinsfan

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Posted 07 November 2018 - 04:27 PM

 

I'd argue that MLB numbers are a much better indicator for potential future MLB performance (which is what prospects should be ranked accordingly) than any minor league numbers.

Berrios?

Sure. For MLB I cut it off at his first 32 innings.

 

MLB: 9.28 ERA, 1.94 WHIP, 1.78 K:BB in his first 32 IP
AAA: 2.51 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 4.10 K:BB in 229.2 IP
AA: 3.22 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 3.33 K:BB in 131.1 IP
Minors (all levels): 2.77 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 3.83 K:BB in 591.2 IP

Point made.

 

Edited by tarheeltwinsfan, 07 November 2018 - 04:29 PM.


#59 ashbury

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Posted 07 November 2018 - 07:48 PM

Gonsalves is a trade candidate before he is exposed more, it may already be to late.

Other teams don't wait until a player reaches the majors to start scouting him. I think they know too. :)

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So, in conclusion, what was your question again?


#60 HrbieFan

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Posted 07 November 2018 - 09:37 PM

Big fan of Arraez. Is he ranked low because of his glove?
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