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Article: Offseason Blueprint: Changing the Course

max kepler kyle gibson jake odorizzi
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#81 beckmt

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Posted 03 November 2018 - 03:20 AM

Prospects still have high value if you are not a club with almost unlimited funds.Twins issue seems to be moving the needle from prospect to (superstar or very good player).Look at the Red Sox.THey have a high payroll, but still have plenty of home grown talent there.That is what the Twins are lacking is getting the players to the next level.It may take a complete overhaul of the Twins minor league system and coaching to do that.  

Moving a player like Kepler would hurt, but you do not get very good talent in return without giving something that hurts up.The FO just has to be right.What I am seeing now is players doing better after leaving the Twins then they did here.That did not happen much in the Terry Ryan era.Do not know how the Twins position players will work out, but they have a chance to have a very good to great lineup, however I do know you will not win without a considerly better pitching staff, and I see good, but not great pitchers coming (maybe with the exception of Gastrol).Twins also have an almost blank payroll sheet after 2019, they can afford to make trades and signings to greatly improve this area (and not all will work, but Twins will fail if they do not try). I am hoping they stretch a little and go for the upper parts of the pitching Free Agents, not the middle and lower tier.If they do not I am afraid we are back to the Terry Ryan era of being competitive, but not being a real threat to win the World Series.  


#82 mike8791

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Posted 03 November 2018 - 07:34 AM

Lots of fat to chew on in this chat, but let's throw a new wrinkle into the discussion.As reported in MLBTR:

 

The Indians remain in a highly competitive stance coming out of the 2018 season, particularly in an exceedingly weak overall American League Central division. After three-straight divisional titles, the organization still has one of the game’s best — and most affordable — core talent groups.

Still, there are plenty of needs on the roster and seemingly less resources to utilize to fulfill them. The club has in recent years both committed salary and dealt well-regarded prospects to supplement its fantastic bunch of stars.

Given this state of affairs, ESPN.com’s Buster Olney reports (Twitter link), the Indians “will listen to trade offers” involving key veteran players. He specifically cites top hurlers Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco, along with pricey veterans such as Edwin Encarnacion, Yan Gomes, and Jason Kipnis, as theoretical trade chips.

 

Ok, just speculation for now, but by seemingly jettisoning Brantley, the Indians seem focused on budgetary constraints going into 2019.Their major advantage over the Twins is their starting foursome and if they are really looking at trading either Kluber or Carrasco, the balance of power shifts considerably in the AL Central, if the Twins are ready to capitalize.No, the Indians are not likely to trade one of these pitchers to an interdivision rival but such a possibility should force the Twins FO to concentrate even more on reeling in a #1/#2 starter as their top offseason priority and look at 2019 as a realistic playoff opportunity.

 

My feeling is that Free Agency will not work for this organization for all the reasons cited in this thread, but trading one of our future "stars" should definitely be on the table to have a reasonable chance of landing someone like Baumgartner, Greineke, Matz, etc.Start with the determination of which one of Buxton/Sano has best chance to rebound and start sending out feelers on the other(I'm in the keep Buxton camp, btw).While Sano might not fetch the haul he would have a year ago, he still might have significant value to a rebuilding team seeking a talent-heavy package of prospects along with a major league ready power hitting 3B.

 

If the Indians are indeed willing to trade one of their pitching stars, the Twins must jump at the opportunity of a widening window of contention.Right now as things stand with the two rosters the Twins have too many holes to make up to legitimately compete in 2019 but the combination of Twin additions and Indian losses can narrow that gap in a big hurry.I doubt whether Falvine will wait for the Cleveland FO to act this offseason but in any case, such news should propel them to greater efforts to add real difference-makers to this team in the offseason.


#83 SQUIRREL

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Posted 03 November 2018 - 07:42 AM

Well if your goal is to get to the end of the road, and you don't care who gets there ahead of you, great.

But if you want to get there first, I think you need to find a way to get the Lamborghini.

And I want the Twins to get there first.

The tortoise and the hare might disagree with you re the Lamborghini. ;)
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A rose by any other name would smell as sweet. But a skunkweed will always be a skunkweed and instantly recognizable. 


#84 Major League Ready

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Posted 03 November 2018 - 07:49 AM

 

I dunno if this plan is achievable, but I kinda like it. McCutcheon is actually a pretty good fit for this team, and while he would cost quite a bit more than Grossman...I like him a lot better. Grossman was awful until September, has no defensive value, really and is basically a 1 trick pony. McCutcheon may have faded defensively, but he can still be solid in a corner and should be a consistent hitter. at 31 he's still likely to have a few more good years in him...maybe a 3-year deal?

 

I am not a Grossman fan and McCutchen was once a MUCH better player than Grossman but check you facts before you make these statements. The player who's September stands out the most is MCCutchen. 

 

wRC+ for July / Aug / Sept

 

Grossman --- 116 / 149 / 149

 

McCutchen --- 96 / 123 / 149

 

Sure are a lot of people focused on how good players were in the past as opposed to how good they will be in the future.

 

BTW ... Rosario ------- 67 / 75 / 61 and many are sure he is key. Not if he continues to have an absolutely horrible approach.

Edited by Major Leauge Ready, 03 November 2018 - 07:53 AM.

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#85 Han Joelo

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Posted 03 November 2018 - 07:51 AM

 

The tortoise and the hare might disagree with you re the Lamborghini. ;)

Yeah...and are we talking a paved racetrack here, or a dirt road through the jungle?

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#86 SQUIRREL

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Posted 03 November 2018 - 08:13 AM

Yeah...and are we talking a paved racetrack here, or a dirt road through the jungle?


Yes.

In baseball, I think the path is revealed after you’ve traversed it not before. It seems more often than not we plan for one and get the other.
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#87 Han Joelo

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Posted 03 November 2018 - 08:34 AM

 

Yes.

In baseball, I think the path is revealed after you’ve traversed it not before. It seems more often than not we plan for one and get the other.

Too true.  And what makes baseball so fun is that even when you've got your Lamborghini floored--see Kenley Jansen in the WS--sometimes it just isn't fast enough.

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#88 Tom Froemming

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Posted 03 November 2018 - 01:29 PM

 

An interesting, intelligent blueprint, Tom.

I question the Gibson trade. The team should try hard to lock him in at a reasonable price. Easier said than done but on paper today, I'd consider Gibson a guy that could be a suitable #3 starter in a future post-season run.

That said, he shouldn't be off the table. But the return on a trade should be somewhat significant. Erceg is Milwaukee's 4th ranked prospect in a system that only has one player in the top 100. I'd want more. Spitballing here, but maybe package Gibson, Gordon, and a teen-ranked prospect for their top prospect, 30th MLB, 23-year-old Keston Hiura. 

In the reader satisfaction department, my request would be that the age is included when discussing the possible prospects we could trade for. 

Anyway, thanks for a good, thought-provoking read.

Hey that sounds amazing to me ... which also means it's probably unrealistic. If the Brewers decide to move Hiura, they're going to set their sights much higher.

 

Gibby has been very good for a year and a half, but he's still got a 94 ERA+ for his career and only comes with one year of team control. Milwaukee is in a competitive stage right now, so I doubt the Gordon and a mid-teens prospect moves the needle at all for them.

 

What do I think it would take to get Hiura? Gibson plus Polanco ... plus May or Garver? Not even sure that would do it, as Hiura was mentioned as a potential centerpiece deal to get Jacob deGrom, who's both better than Gibby and under multiple years of team control.

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#89 yarnivek1972

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Posted 04 November 2018 - 04:06 PM

I don't understand why everybody's making conclusions on this recent group of graduated prospects. The ink is far from dry yet. Some of the guys have proven to be building blocks already, but remember that Buxton is 24 and Sano is 25.

Maybe they never amount to what we envisioned, but it's still way, way too early to throw in the towel.

25 is no longer considered young in MLB. Look at today’s stars. Mookie Betts just turned 26. He’s a 3 time all star and possible AL MVP this year. He’s at least sure to finish top 6 for the third consecutive year.

Sano and Buxton need to stop being coddled and they need to start performing or their careers are done. The time for excuses is over. If they aren’t good enough, move on, period.

Edited by yarnivek1972, 04 November 2018 - 04:07 PM.

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#90 Doctor Wu

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Posted 05 November 2018 - 06:33 AM

 

I'm in favor of trading Kepler and one of either Odorizzi or Gibson but not both. I think dumping half of the 'named' starting pitchers would have a longer term negative influence on the players we are keeping. There would be reasonable intrepidation that one of the other starters might go down for a week, a month or for the entire season. This would look bad regardless of the envisioned outcomes--to players and fans.

As for Kepler, he's attractive for other teams. As Tom pointed out, Buxton has such low trade value that it would represent a give-away and Sano might be even worse--you have the hitting problems and the potential attitude problems.

My take on this idea is that Buxton, despite his setbacks last year, still has MUCH more trade value than Kepler. That said, I'dhang on to both of them at this point.




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