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Article: Offseason Blueprint: Changing the Course

max kepler kyle gibson jake odorizzi
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#21 howieramone2

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Posted 31 October 2018 - 10:55 AM

If I'm not mistaken the team was .500 after May 1. We need to move some pieces around, but contending in 2019 is more than likely. Talk of rebuilding again makes no sense to me, nor does pointing toward 2020 and beyond. 

 

We have players to trade, a top 5 farm system, and as much money available as we have every had. There's nothing to wait for. Let's not forget, our last off season was the busiest ever and we followed that up with our busiest ever trade deadline.

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#22 Loops

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Posted 31 October 2018 - 10:55 AM

I understand your thinking/reasoning, and on the surface it makes sense.Unfortunately I feel this just leads us down a path of being in permanent rebuild mode.We were expecting prospects to come in a few years ago and turn us around.Your strategy is basically saying the same thing with a new core of prospects.Not saying you are wrong and I'm not sure of the exact right thing to do.If we get lucky all the prospects will gel and hit their potential and be superstars.Reality says not likely.

 

Bottom line is that is is a very tough juggling act!

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#23 Aerodeliria

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Posted 31 October 2018 - 11:11 AM

I'm in favor of trading Kepler and one of either Odorizzi or Gibson but not both. I think dumping half of the 'named' starting pitchers would have a longer term negative influence on the players we are keeping. There would be reasonable intrepidation that one of the other starters might go down for a week, a month or for the entire season. This would look bad regardless of the envisioned outcomes--to players and fans.

As for Kepler, he's attractive for other teams. As Tom pointed out, Buxton has such low trade value that it would represent a give-away and Sano might be even worse--you have the hitting problems and the potential attitude problems.


#24 USAFChief

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Posted 31 October 2018 - 11:12 AM

You're right, Tom...I'm groaning.

I have zero interest in yet another "wait till 3 yrs from now" approach.
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#25 Steve Lein

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Posted 31 October 2018 - 11:55 AM

The money quote (referring to rebuilding): "I’m more curious if it ever truly started in the first place."

 

In my opinion, it never truly did. Always doing things down the middle hoping things all broke right at the same time to be a contender.

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#26 Tomj14

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Posted 31 October 2018 - 12:07 PM

Tom you said "I’m more curious if it ever truly started in the first place"

I have to say, Kepler, Roasario, Polanco, Buxton, Sano, Berrios, and a bunch of relief pitchers was the rebuild.

That is the whole outfield,half the infield, and at top end rotation starter.

All under the age of 25, they brought in FA veterans to fill the other spots and had a couple of guys ready to go in the minors.

Sano, Buxton, Gordon,Morrison and Romero (not grabbing hold of a rotation spot) sucking is the reason the Twins were terrible last year.

If the Twins FO think Sano, Buxton and Gordon are never going to get it, I am for what tearing it down, but really tearing it down, getting rid of everybody,

But if they have faith in those 3, I say go out and get some veteran Free agents and letting these guys have a shot. If they fail again, they aren't hurting 2020.

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#27 nicksaviking

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Posted 31 October 2018 - 12:12 PM

I'd like to think they can trade and sign for players to compete next year, in which case I'd still trade guys like Kepler and Odorizzi; not for a handful of prospects but along with prospects for real MLB talent.

 

But if the front office is convinced that the organization's foundation was so irreparably damaged that they still have more work to do before they can compete, I guess this is the way they have to go.

 

I absolutely agree that this team cannot continue treading in mediocrity, intentionally aiming for a .500 season is how you get stuck in MLB purgatory.

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#28 nicksaviking

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Posted 31 October 2018 - 12:15 PM

 

Tom you said "I’m more curious if it ever truly started in the first place"

I have to say, Kepler, Roasario, Polanco, Buxton, Sano, Berrios, and a bunch of relief pitchers was the rebuild.

That is the whole outfield,half the infield, and at top end rotation starter.

All under the age of 25, they brought in FA veterans to fill the other spots and had a couple of guys ready to go in the minors.

 

OK, but compare the Twins Under 25 players to the Astros, Red Sox and Yankees Under 25 players. They're still way behind the talent needed to win a championship.

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#29 Tomj14

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Posted 31 October 2018 - 01:03 PM

 

OK, but compare the Twins Under 25 players to the Astros, Red Sox and Yankees Under 25 players. They're still way behind the talent needed to win a championship.

I don't buy it.

Red Sox (Benintendi, Devers, Rodriguez)

Astros (Alex Bregman, Carlos Correa)

Yanks ( Luis Severino, Gary Sanchez,Miguel Andujar)

 

The guys over 25 on those team have more talent, sure.

 

If the only option for the Twins is to have the most talent, well then it is time to shut the team down, because that isn't going to happen for multiple reasons. First the top Free Agents don't want to be here and second the ownership is un-willing to pay for the top talent.


#30 Kelly Vance

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Posted 31 October 2018 - 01:42 PM

I don't believe in the tear down approach, especially when we were so snakebitten by injuries to Sano and Buck and Castro.  Don't over react

 

Buck and Sano need to return to their 2017 abilities. Sano hit 28 homers in a shortened season and Buck was the best fielder in the majors at any position.These are not throwaway guys. We need coaches who can improve these guys. 

 

I keep Gibby and Odo and try to turn the 5th spot into a #1 or #2 starter, rather than wait for a #5 to emerge. Unless Romero is ready (which he is probably not quite) 

 

Lucroy at C. Couple stud relievers (Allen and Kelly)  and a stud SP will help immeasurably. 

 

Keps may be pushed by Cave, but we need 4 outfielders and Robby is not a good outfielder

 

Polanco and someone not named Ehire can handle the middle. Austin/Sano at 1b/DH

 

Which leaves Sano/??? at 3b.

 

I don't see a rebuild. We need one good SP and two or maybe 3 strong BP arms and a relief 3b and new 2b. 

 

 

 

 


#31 AndrewG

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Posted 31 October 2018 - 01:57 PM

Tom, this is definitely something I can back if the FO thinks we’d be better off. However, Cleveland is not a super team, they are slowing falling into the mediocre category and their window is closing, our window opened in 2017 imo. If we do retool, and say spend two more years doing so, Chicago’s window will have probably opened and we’re facing more competition that’s younger than Cleveland and primed for long term success. Fortunately for the Twins, we likely don’t have to worry about the Tigers and Royals till at least mid 2020’s

#32 Vanimal46

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Posted 31 October 2018 - 01:59 PM

You're right, Tom...I'm groaning.

I have zero interest in yet another "wait till 3 yrs from now" approach.


Concur concur concur. The Tigers and White Sox aren't going to wait around and continue to suck forever.
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#33 RatherBeGolfing

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Posted 31 October 2018 - 02:00 PM

Contending for a central title vs. contending for a world series are two very different things. Sure, with a good offseason we could on paper compete for the central but in no way is this team even remotely close to being world series contenders

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#34 AndrewG

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Posted 31 October 2018 - 02:05 PM

Contending for a central title vs. contending for a world series are two very different things. Sure, with a good offseason we could on paper compete for the central but in no way is this team even remotely close to being world series contenders


I’d slightly disagree, I do believe that the best teams are projected to be winners, but typically the hottest teams going into the playoffs are the ones that go the deepest. It’s honestly hard to predict who that’s going to be.
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#35 joefish

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Posted 31 October 2018 - 02:44 PM

Do we have a better bat or glove than Mauer at 1b?

#36 Mike Sixel

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Posted 31 October 2018 - 02:54 PM

Buxton was awesomish in 2017, Sano and Castro were good, and the team won a whopping 85 games. With ESan being the best he could possibly be. Oh, and where is the Dozier season coming from on this roster? This team isn't close to being great, not even a little.

 

All I want is a choice, go in some for this year, but with an eye on teh future (stop only signing 1 year FA deals......), or tear down more than they have.

 

Nothing about last off season made me think this FO thought this was close to a very good team....all of their moves were short term, and on the margins.

 

So, I could get behind this practice, under 2 conditions.

 

first: They are SUPER AGGRESSIVE with promotions and letting young players fail so they can learn and get better. If Kiriloff is killing the ball, and not in MN, then this plan is not for me. Because there is talent enough to be really good in 2020, but only if some of it gets experience this year.

 

second: They are aggressive about adding MLB talent in 2020 and 21, in FA and trades, to fix whatever holes exist. If they just sit on the money, well, good luck.....

 

I would be better with this plan if they kept Gibson or signed Corbin (pipe dream, he's going to a huge market with a huge budget). But, I would be ok if they didn't do that, not thrilled, but ok.

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#37 Riverbrian

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Posted 31 October 2018 - 03:41 PM

Contending for a central title vs. contending for a world series are two very different things. Sure, with a good offseason we could on paper compete for the central but in no way is this team even remotely close to being world series contenders


I was alive and have vivid memories of 1987. I remember the Cards in 2006 and the Giants and the Royals. Any team that makes the playoffs can win it and have. In not just baseball but Hockey and Football as well. If we keep trying to win the game on paper first... we might as well give up now. 😃
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#38 ND-Fan

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Posted 31 October 2018 - 03:55 PM

This front office has not committed to anything yet and if I suspect they are not ready to yet either. While other clubs commit to group of players and build around them to try to put winning team together we have not committed to one player either young or old. Now we are coming to this year we have 2/3 of the rotation that will become free agents next year. we have heard of no talks with any players to extending them contract and only one that was offered longer term contract was Buxton on very team friendly offer last year. I my experience as baseball fan a team needs core of baseball players that you can construct team around not always most talented but nucleus that provides right club house and does thing that make team good. The Twins have not had this now for at least three years or more with the exception of Mauer who has been in last years of his career. The year the Twins signed Tori Hunter with Mauer they started winning what we heard how they led this young group of players. This past year we had Brian Dozier and Escobar but its hard to be club house leader when your Front office is trying to trade you and not committing to you beyond your contract. This brings to me this team now who do the Twins have as leaders for the future my answer is nobody everyone is playing for their next contract or just waiting to be traded. Rosario is probably best hitting player the Twins have but he doesn't appear to me a team leader. Buxton could become a team leader but question there is can he overcome his own problems to ever become that player. Sano is not team leader now and I have my doubts if he will ever become that type of player. Everyone is convinced here on the board we need to trade Kepler because he's at his peak but I think he's going to become monster of player in next few years. He is type of player that could become leader for this club he play's smart, works hard, versatile in where he can play, and his stats should be better than they have been for batting but seems to have been unlucky in getting hits. I think he could be core player and leader for the future of this club but time will only tell on that. But getting back to this front office its time for them to start committing to this team by deciding who and how they are going to build this team around. This where I believe they are very weak as front office they have all these theories but when it comes to building a team they lack experience and baseball eyesight to know how to build a team with a group of players. The analytical people are what somebody said other day on one baseball shows these are people if they were poker players are used to limited poker where the game is limited by statistics but people like Red Sox are playing unlimited poker they are betting even when stats say something else not saying they don't use analytical information but they are also using their baseball and people knowledge to construct their teams and how they play the game. The fault of previous Front office was they were behind on analytics but they did have people skills and eye skills to find baseball players now this front office is just opposite but they are inexperienced in running a club and so far shown they have lack of commitment to their team when they shown they can compete. I will hear how they signed all the free agents this past year but the plan was based on short term where they could sell their signees and still didn't commit to any player long term. We see how that played out and the now were left with no experienced players and whole lot of questions left on remaining players. Now we start with new manager that could be good manager but problem no matter how good manager you are you need a team to manage. Only saving grace for the Twins is there in divisions with three other clubs in the rebuilding mode but we will see of these three teams who rebuilds fastest my guess is by end of next season we will be wondering how were in last place.   

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#39 DocBauer

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Posted 31 October 2018 - 04:19 PM

Tom, an intelligent and well thought out and argued plan. But I am going to disagree with you none-the-less.

I DO believe the rebuild has begun, which is in the form of Sano, Buxton,Kepler, Polanco, Berrios, Garver, etc. Now, we haven't seen the desired results or consistent performances as of yet. Is that the players, the coaching, injuries, or system development, or dumb luck it's taking longer to hone their skills? That's the tricky part! And I dont have an honest answer.

I would add 2 quality bullpen arms. I would roll with Moya, Vasquez or Mejia as a 2nd LH arm with Roger's. Combined with May, hopefully a rebounding Hildenbeger creates a much better pen with auditions for the end spot(s).

I sign McCutchen to play OF and DH. He's productive, has a couple good years in him, and the lineup and roster become deeper and more flexible.

I'm OK with Lowry as a stopgap at 2B. But I'd prefer a trade for someone like Starlin Castro. He's got offense, is much younger, and could have value as a starter even after Lewis arrives.

We have 3 SP who could be gone after this year. But I'd re-sign Gibson. Odorizzi and Pineda could be kept, moved to the pen, or offered up in trade during 2019 if/when Romero, Gonsalves, Thorpe begin to step forward.

This is not a series of 1 year deals. Its 2-3 year deals to augment the current roster, a wait the second wave of prospects, and still have trade flexibility for the next couple of seasons.

Much depends still on continual development for Sano, Buxton and Kepler. (Along with some better health). But I see moves like this adding to the roster, not just fill ins.

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#40 caninatl04

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Posted 31 October 2018 - 04:51 PM

First, I agree that the target is 2020 and not 2019.Second, I think resigning Gibson makes a lot of sense. 

 

Finally, and most importantly, a previous poster wrote:"when the most heralded prospects in recent vintage haven't consistently graduated to become what we thought/hoped they would be."

 

When I look at the Top Prospects list and see expected arrival dates of 2020-22, I, on the one hand, fantasize about a youth oriented, very inexpensive, very competitive team in 2022.However, given recent history, I have to wonder how many / few won't actually stall out like Gordon, Sano, Bux, Gonlsalves, etc., etc.

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