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Article: A Tale of Two Paths for Twins

minnesota twins free agency derek falvey thad levine
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#21 nicksaviking

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Posted 12 October 2018 - 09:35 AM

 

Of all the players listed as free agents, I'm only interested in premium prices for Machado and Corbin. I don't think we will get either, but either would make our team better.

 

What I don't want out of free agency is bargain shopping for guys with no real top end. So maybe you bargain hunt with Josh Donaldson because if he's healthy, maybe he has something left. But LeMahieu has had exactly one elite year (2016). Hard pass on him. Maybe Keuchel is worth looking at, but he's going to look to get paid big cash, and he's on the wrong side of 30 for me to want to pay a premium.

 

On the trade side, I'd call the Mets about their pitchers to see what the prospect asking price is. If Thor or DeGrom are available, I think you have to at least consider it.

 

I agree, no nickle and diming the free agents. I'd rather have quality over quantity and if they can't get that in free agency then they need to get it via trade.

 

I don't like Keuchel and his sinker and low strikeout rates, I don't trust those guys' skill sets when they age nor do I trust it translating to a new team. This team shouldn't be looking at sinkerballers with this infield defense anyway.

 

Speaking of sinkers, I was interested in Corbin despite fairly high sinker use but looking at him more I also have concerns about his low velocity and the fact that he threw a slider on 40% of his pitches last year. That was always supposed to be the pitch that would ruin your arm. If that's been debunked I could be talked into him, if an extreme slider use is still a concern I would leave him alone.

 

I'm still all about spending most of the FA money on relievers. Cream of the crop guys, there are lots available.

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#22 TheLeviathan

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Posted 12 October 2018 - 10:00 AM

If you're looking for a contract you can take on cheaply....Zach Grienke continues to be number one on my list.And now it's being reported in AZ that they are likely looking to dump that salary.

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#23 laloesch

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Posted 12 October 2018 - 10:01 AM

 

Who is "the young talent" you speak of? The only players in the system who figure to be upgrades are several seasons away.

Similarly, rebuild to what end? Our last young core is arb eligible and figures to be down right expensive in a couple years. The pressure to trade or sign will be real in just a year. When you get young you have everyone coming up at the same time, they all get expensive at the same time which limits your ability to add. Rinse repeat.

Also, how is anyone untouchable? Lewis and kiriloff are nice players but each have questions still. If Lewis can't stick at short his stock falls quite a bit. Alex may never develope mlb corner position power. Graterol has a short high effort delivery and prior ucl.

 

I'd like to see the Twins really push Lewis, Kiriloff and Thorpe next season.And see how Gordon does with a fresh start.


#24 bobs

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Posted 12 October 2018 - 10:02 AM

I thought the FO did a terrific job last offseason filling gaps.Most "experts" agreed.Read their offseason referred to as a "home run".Things didn't work out, but that's baseball.It's going to very interesting, and telling, who they pursue.It will say a lot about what they think of younger players like Buxton, Sano, Kepler, etc..


#25 bobs

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Posted 12 October 2018 - 10:03 AM

 

I for one don't see the Twins as having as much money to spend as you figure for the coming year i betting they will have salary figure of total 75 million to spend not what we spent last year it will fall back closer to year before spending.. The construction of this team salary has some big questions to be answered. First 3 of the 5 projected starters are in there last year of arbortation for the coming year so what are Twins plan for the future on pitching. This group of Gibson, Ordorizzi, and Pineda all have big questions on their future as big league starters but if they are not signed by opening day very likely all three would go FA at the end of next year. That leaves the Twins with only option is to trade them an next year trade dead line unless were really contending and then very likely we loose them to Free Agency. The Twins have glaring needs at ss or second base for next year which I believe will cost them at least 4million. Then we will need to have either a 3rd baseman or first baseman which could cost at least between 5 to 8 million if were talking quality players. Then it comes to our bull pen if they truly want to improve this team some money is going to be needed to be spent here. They should being looking for shut down closer in my mind that would be first thing to fix to gaining most wins for this club. Look at how many losses we had in walk off losses last year. If we had a bull pen that would have shut down other teams and we had won 75% of those games this team would have exceeded last years wins. But also with closer they could use at least another arm to fill in with our existing bull pen. Lastly this all based on assumption that Buxton and Sano can turn into all stars they were two years ago. If this doesn't happen were looking at a team again that will be 78 wins at best plus we will again have traded away a lot of the core of this team again especially starting pitching. I think this window on this group of players will be determined by next year performance and if they can't turn the corner I believe like I have thought all along were in reset again waiting for the next wave of players to arrive. This front office has never believed what was in place here and its why they haven't invested in these players or added to this team even when they have been contending or close enough to make a run. Also thinking were going to sign one of the top free agents next year isn't going to happen there not going to come to team that has this many questions and is in this state of flux. Were going to have hard time to even sign quality free agent to come here and for sure the Twins will never over pay to get a player I believe ownership has demonstrated that over years on there signing of Free Agents.  

If the FO doesn't feel Polanco is the SS going forward, I'm 99% sure he'll be the 2B.


#26 LA VIkes Fan

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Posted 12 October 2018 - 10:05 AM

 

Also Dodgers have multiple starting pitching options, unlikely they will get into a bidding war for Ryu. They also have extra outfielders and may need or want to clear payroll space for a Kershaw extension and Manny.In the current marketplace making and executing a game play is important. Many teams are just starting or in the middle of rebuilds, Twins should be able to acquire nice assets without breaking the bank. Only about 8 - 10 teams in the AL are even planning to compete next year,National league is about the same, with the upper end reachable only if every inbetween team decides to try.(this is clubs like Arizona, LAA, Seattle, SF).  

Do not know if the Twins will do this, but I feel it is doable, Twins can afford to take on an expensive contract if a club like Arizona decides to retool on the fly and looks for salary relief (Greinke)Angels with the number of bad contracts they have on the books may have to do the unthinkable and put Trout on the market in the next two years to avoid having him walk for nothing to a team that is able to win.This is about being able to indentify opportunities and going after them.Twins need a big splash to help sell tickets in the next two years.Hope they FO is given the goahead to do it.

I live in LA and I don't know that Ryu will become available. Not only is he pitching well for the Dodgers, they like to have Japanese or Korean players on the roster to draw fans from the huge Japanese and Korean communities here, largest in the world outside of their native countries. I live in LA and the mid season crowds for Ryu and Maeda (and for Nomo before them) include 10,000-20,000 fans who sepiocifically come out to root for them. I think Ryu has a greater economic value to the Dodgers than just as a pitcher and that will be reflected in the team's desire to keep him.  

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#27 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 12 October 2018 - 10:13 AM

 

If you're looking for a contract you can take on cheaply....Zach Grienke continues to be number one on my list.And now it's being reported in AZ that they are likely looking to dump that salary.

Wonder what it would take. Do you think they'd do a straight up trade for Pineda or perhaps one of our young AAA guys?


#28 TheLeviathan

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Posted 12 October 2018 - 10:18 AM

 

Wonder what it would take. Do you think they'd do a straight up trade for Pineda or perhaps one of our young AAA guys?

 

I guess it depends on what they end up doing overall.But yeah, I don't think it will take much to add him.

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#29 zenser

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Posted 12 October 2018 - 10:19 AM

 

If you're looking for a contract you can take on cheaply....Zach Grienke continues to be number one on my list.And now it's being reported in AZ that they are likely looking to dump that salary.

Correct me if I am wrong but don't they have Pollock as a FA this year and Goldschmidt next year and Peralta is going to get a nice raise in arbitration and will be a FA soon.Isnt Greinke due something like 35 million each of the next three years?I could see Arizona wanting to get out of that salary to pay their other guys.

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#30 Mike Sixel

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Posted 12 October 2018 - 10:21 AM

 

If you're looking for a contract you can take on cheaply....Zach Grienke continues to be number one on my list.And now it's being reported in AZ that they are likely looking to dump that salary.

 

I'm all in. should have signed him one of the other two times they could have.....

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I remain hopeful on Buxton and Sano.....but I'd not bet the franchise on them.


#31 USAFChief

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Posted 12 October 2018 - 10:23 AM

 

I guess it depends on what they end up doing overall.But yeah, I don't think it will take much to add him.

Goldschmidt is likely available too.

 

Package deal? Take on the entire Greinke salary, in return for a lesser price on Goldschmidt. I think AZ is going to have trouble finding a taker for Greinke unless they eat some salary.

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#32 LA VIkes Fan

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Posted 12 October 2018 - 10:25 AM

The Twins have the money to get free agents, there just isn't a lot to get once you get outside of Machado, Harper and Corbin. I'd love to get Corbin but the other 2 will be beyond what the Twins will pay. The other problem with any free agent is that the Twins weren't good 2 of the last 3 years and the free agents you really want proritize winning over marginal dollars. Let's face it, all of these guys will get big dollars. Why not take them from a winner that will get you into the playoffs with a chance?That's why guys like Machado and Harper are more likely to be in New York, LA, Boston, Chicago (Cubs), etc. We're a year or two of winning away from being a good FA destination. It's not all about the money. 

 

Our better capital is young players with upside, particularly after the mid-season trades last year. We have some pieces that should have trade value or allow us to trade pre-existing pieces with trade value. My thoughts:

 

1) Trade as much minor league pitching as necessary not named Romero, Thorpe or Graterol for Realmuto. Include Romero if its nets you Realmuto to catch and Starlin Castro to play 2B. Use less but some of the minor league pitching for Castro if you can't get Realmuto.Realmuto and Garver catch, and then DH or play 1B the days they don't catch. Astudillo is the 25th man or the AAA catcher and Castro is traded for prospects. 

 

2) Get Escobar back. 2B if we can't get S. Castro, Super Utility playing 5 days a week if we can. Do not re-sign Dozier or Forsythe reagrdless of price. 

 

2) Spend all the rest of your free agent dollars on PITCHING. We have one maaaybe top of rotation starter if Berrios takes another step up, one #3 starter if last year's Gibson continues, one #5 in Odorizzi, a possible #4 at best in Pineda if he comes back, and a whole bunch of question marks.We have 2 solid BP pitchers in Rogers and May, maybe 1 more if Hildenberger was just overworked in the second half and not exposed in the second half (I think its a combination and he won't be a great reliever next year but good enough to be at the back end of a bullpen), and maaaaaaybe another in Reed if he isn't cooked. 

 

3). In combination with #2, get a proven closer (Kelvin Herrera, Craig Kimbrel, Jeurys Familia), a #2ish starter (Patrick Corbin, J.A. Happ, Nathan Eovaldi) and at least 2 more bullpen guys as free agents. I'd love a #1 starter but there aren't any unless Kershaw opts out and he'll be $35m or more a year. Extend Gibson on a 3 year deal, 2 if he'll take it, and take your chances with Odorizzi. He's replaceable.  

 

Other than the trade I suggest, run with the guys we have in the field plus Escobar . Upgrade the pitching in free agency however you can while we wait for the ptiching that's still a year or two away. Better short term, better long term. 

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#33 TheLeviathan

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Posted 12 October 2018 - 10:26 AM

 

Goldschmidt is likely available too.

 

Package deal? Take on the entire Greinke salary, in return for a lesser price on Goldschmidt. I think AZ is going to have trouble finding a taker for Greinke unless they eat some salary.

 

I agree, though I don't think you could do that with Goldschmidt.

 

But maybe Jake Lamb?


#34 TheLeviathan

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Posted 12 October 2018 - 10:27 AM

 

Correct me if I am wrong but don't they have Pollock as a FA this year and Goldschmidt next year and Peralta is going to get a nice raise in arbitration and will be a FA soon.Isnt Greinke due something like 35 million each of the next three years?I could see Arizona wanting to get out of that salary to pay their other guys.

 

And they're likely to lose Corbin this year as well.

 

I see them dumping Grienke and trading Goldschmidt as a full rebuild signal.  


#35 nicksaviking

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Posted 12 October 2018 - 10:58 AM

I'd take Greinke, but he's still got a limited no-trade clause and I think he desperately wanted out of KC and Milwaukee so Minnesota may be on the list if his distaste was for the Midwest. From my understanding typical NT clauses allow the player to pick new teams each year, so if the Twins do want him, they may want to stay out of any and all rumors until he makes his selections for his list and cross their fingers they don't make the cut.

 

I've said before that I'd like to keep 1B open for platooning as a quasi-2nd DH spot. But Goldschmidt? Yes please, I'll do that plan instead.

 

I don't know if AZ is going the rebuild route, but if they are, I'd rather acquire Nick Ahmed as a 1-2 year stop-gap SS than any of the free agents.

 

Also, I'd have interest in former Diamondback and current free agent AJ Pollock. The Twins have the outfield depth to cover the 40 games he's going to miss due to injury. He's pretty dang good when he's healthy.

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#36 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 12 October 2018 - 11:09 AM

Ted, you appear to be forgetting about the $5.95 million that the Twins are still on the hook for Hughes next year.

#37 Battle ur tail off

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Posted 12 October 2018 - 11:50 AM

 

I for one don't see the Twins as having as much money to spend as you figure for the coming year i betting they will have salary figure of total 75 million to spend not what we spent last year it will fall back closer to year before spending.. The construction of this team salary has some big questions to be answered. First 3 of the 5 projected starters are in there last year of arbortation for the coming year so what are Twins plan for the future on pitching. This group of Gibson, Ordorizzi, and Pineda all have big questions on their future as big league starters but if they are not signed by opening day very likely all three would go FA at the end of next year. That leaves the Twins with only option is to trade them an next year trade dead line unless were really contending and then very likely we loose them to Free Agency. The Twins have glaring needs at ss or second base for next year which I believe will cost them at least 4million. Then we will need to have either a 3rd baseman or first baseman which could cost at least between 5 to 8 million if were talking quality players. Then it comes to our bull pen if they truly want to improve this team some money is going to be needed to be spent here. They should being looking for shut down closer in my mind that would be first thing to fix to gaining most wins for this club. Look at how many losses we had in walk off losses last year. If we had a bull pen that would have shut down other teams and we had won 75% of those games this team would have exceeded last years wins. But also with closer they could use at least another arm to fill in with our existing bull pen. Lastly this all based on assumption that Buxton and Sano can turn into all stars they were two years ago. If this doesn't happen were looking at a team again that will be 78 wins at best plus we will again have traded away a lot of the core of this team again especially starting pitching. I think this window on this group of players will be determined by next year performance and if they can't turn the corner I believe like I have thought all along were in reset again waiting for the next wave of players to arrive. This front office has never believed what was in place here and its why they haven't invested in these players or added to this team even when they have been contending or close enough to make a run. Also thinking were going to sign one of the top free agents next year isn't going to happen there not going to come to team that has this many questions and is in this state of flux. Were going to have hard time to even sign quality free agent to come here and for sure the Twins will never over pay to get a player I believe ownership has demonstrated that over years on there signing of Free Agents.  

 

4 million for a middle infielder and 5 for a 1B? Spend this kind of money and you will get more of the same C level talent they always go for. If this is what they want to do, just fill in with guys already in your system that don't cost anything. That or go big. 


#38 Minny505

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Posted 12 October 2018 - 11:59 AM

I'm curious why the TD crowd thinks Machado is so unrealistic. Sure, the Phillies seem like the obvious fit and they have more payroll space than us so I'd say it's a slam dunk. But if they decide they want to focus on Harper and pitching, who else has the need and dollars?

 

Due to having their SS/3B needs filled, the Dodgers, Yankees, Astros and Nats are likely out. They have other needs that are a priority. The Red Sox are so far past the highest luxury tax line that they can't even see it.

 

The Cubs may be in play, but the rumor is that they are going hard at Harper. The Cardinals might make a move for him as they basically have the same backstory as the Twins when it comes to signing someone of his caliber. I don't see any other team really wanting him.

 

After that you're getting into speculation on teams like the Blue Jays, Mariners or Mets, none of which seems likely.

 

The market for Machado from the top market teams just isn't there this offseason. This isn't the Harper market. The Twins, Phillies, Cubs and Cards are the only teams likely to be bidding on Machado in any meaningful way (caveat, Yanks trade Andujar, which seems less likely than the Twins signing Machado).

 

Yes, the Phillies are the leader in the clubhouse with a bullet, but I'd take even money on the Twins vs the other 28 teams at this point.

 

I feel like if we weren't jaded Ryan/Smith Twins fans we would see the Twins as a viable landing spot. Am I missing something?


#39 adorduan

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Posted 12 October 2018 - 12:05 PM

 

The Twins have the money to get free agents, there just isn't a lot to get once you get outside of Machado, Harper and Corbin. I'd love to get Corbin but the other 2 will be beyond what the Twins will pay. The other problem with any free agent is that the Twins weren't good 2 of the last 3 years and the free agents you really want proritize winning over marginal dollars. Let's face it, all of these guys will get big dollars. Why not take them from a winner that will get you into the playoffs with a chance?That's why guys like Machado and Harper are more likely to be in New York, LA, Boston, Chicago (Cubs), etc. We're a year or two of winning away from being a good FA destination. It's not all about the money. 

 

Our better capital is young players with upside, particularly after the mid-season trades last year. We have some pieces that should have trade value or allow us to trade pre-existing pieces with trade value. My thoughts:

 

1) Trade as much minor league pitching as necessary not named Romero, Thorpe or Graterol for Realmuto. Include Romero if its nets you Realmuto to catch and Starlin Castro to play 2B. Use less but some of the minor league pitching for Castro if you can't get Realmuto.Realmuto and Garver catch, and then DH or play 1B the days they don't catch. Astudillo is the 25th man or the AAA catcher and Castro is traded for prospects. 

 

If you exclude those guys, the Twins have nothing that would come close to getting Realmuto.


#40 Mike Sixel

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Posted 12 October 2018 - 12:07 PM

The Yankees aren't even close to out.......

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I remain hopeful on Buxton and Sano.....but I'd not bet the franchise on them.




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