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Twins projected arb salaries

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#41 markos

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Posted 10 October 2018 - 12:59 PM

 

Kinda curious as to what kind of track record mlbtraderumors has for this. Kepler and Sano seem pretty high for two guys that haven’t done much. Sano at his best in 2017 was a 2.5 bWAR. He was a train wreck this year. Kepler was 2.0 in 2017 and 2.8 in 2018. I was figuring about $2.25 mil or so for each.

mlbtraderumors have put a lot of work into their arbitration model. The brains behind the model, Matt Swartz, is a PhD economist that has done consulting work for MLB clubs and is well-respected within the baseball analytics community.

 

Last's years estimates followed by actual for the Twins:

Twins (7)

Eduardo Escobar – $4.9MM v $4.85MM
Kyle Gibson – $5.3MM v $4.2MM
Ryan Pressly – $1.6MM v $1.6MM
Ehire Adrianza – $1.0MM v $1.0MM
Robbie Grossman – $2.4MM v $2.0MM
Trevor May – $600K - $650K

 

They were off by about $1MM on Gibson and $400K with Grossman, but otherwise nailed the contracts. Overall, I'd say that is pretty solid. Probably within +/- 10%.

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#42 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 10 October 2018 - 01:26 PM

 

Let's do this by the numbers.

1.Is he better than any of Cleveland's top 4 starters.Answer - No

2.Should he be in a playoff Rotation - Answer No

 

He needs to be signed as a backup option, but Twins will need to do better if they wish to beat Cleveland in 2019.If this is a sort them out year then Oderizzi is fine, but there are several mid to better level FA's this year, Twins need to find one or two of them.

 

It's probably worth noting that he finished pretty strong. Perhaps he figured something out and might end up being better than a 2.6 WAR guy...

 

That said, I'm not sure you throw away a guy who could reasonably be a 2-3 WAR guy either... Agreed that if you can acquire something better, by all means do so, but these types of starters don't exactly grow on trees either.

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#43 Tom Froemming

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Posted 10 October 2018 - 01:27 PM

 

I would not tender Grossman either but I do think he will be projected to have a better OPS next year than either Cave or certainly Wade.

I think the Twins need to seek a clear upgrade and that player isn’t on the roster.

This is the direction I'm leaning right now as well. If you let Robbie go, you need to replace him with a better bat, and one that's proven it in the majors. If you non-tender Grossman with the objective of letting it ride with internal options, you're taking an unnecessary risk. And to everyone thinking $4 million is a lot of money, you need to remove your glasses that have Pohlad-colored lenses, lol.

 

Grossman was the Twins' best hitter in the second half, his 128 wRC+ after the break was tied for 33rd among the 165 AL hitters (top 20 percent) with at least 100 PAs and his defense was better than 2017 -- not good, but better. Meanwhile, Cave had a 33.0 K% to go with just a 5.8 BB% and Wade hit .229/.337/.336 over 294 PAs in Triple A.

 

Bird in hand vs. two in bush.

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#44 yarnivek1972

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Posted 10 October 2018 - 01:35 PM

mlbtraderumors have put a lot of work into their arbitration model. The brains behind the model, Matt Swartz, is a PhD economist that has done consulting work for MLB clubs and is well-respected within the baseball analytics community.

Last's years estimates followed by actual for the Twins:
Twins (7)
Eduardo Escobar – $4.9MM v $4.85MM
Kyle Gibson – $5.3MM v $4.2MM
Ryan Pressly – $1.6MM v $1.6MM
Ehire Adrianza – $1.0MM v $1.0MM
Robbie Grossman – $2.4MM v $2.0MM
Trevor May – $600K - $650K

They were off by about $1MM on Gibson and $400K with Grossman, but otherwise nailed the contracts. Overall, I'd say that is pretty solid. Probably within +/- 10%.


I looked at their own info. They say 65% are within 10% which is pretty good, but certainly not ironclad. I think Sano getting sent down and performing so terribly when he was up seriously hurts his arb award. The Twins would be wise to go the distance on that one. A large part of Kepler’s WAR number is because he played a lot of CF last year. Which is certainly valid but at a hearing he’s going to be compared with corner OFers. That will hurt him also.
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#45 nicksaviking

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Posted 10 October 2018 - 02:19 PM

Since he isn't good on defense, he has no power and his only strong baseball skill is working a count I'd be pretty confident that the team could non-tender Grossman and sign him back in February for $1M or even a MiLB deal if for some reason they get an inkling. 

 

If on the off chance another team actually wants to sign Grossman for a larger deal sooner, well that doesn't seem like a loss that couldn't be overcome.

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#46 Thrylos

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Posted 10 October 2018 - 02:22 PM

 

So where are the Twins going to find 2 SP that have ERAs in the 2 range? Add to that 2 more in the low 3 range.Berrios might develop into that. Romero and Gonsalves down the road, but not for 2019.

 

1. Trade for Mets' number 3 starter (Zach Wheeler; I would not mind their number 1 or 2, btw)

2. Sign Partrick Corrbin

 

With Berrios number 3

Gibson number 4 and 

Pineda/Odorizzi number 5

 

You got a competitive rotation

Edited by Thrylos, 10 October 2018 - 02:23 PM.

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#47 Mike Sixel

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Posted 10 October 2018 - 02:48 PM

If they aren't trying to seriously win next year, they should deal Gibson for sure. He'll net a legit player or two. I'd prefer they add some real talent, but if they don't, I would hope they deal Gibson and really do the rebuild.

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I remain hopeful on Buxton and Sano.....but I'd not bet the franchise on them.


#48 old nurse

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Posted 10 October 2018 - 03:51 PM

 

1. Trade for Mets' number 3 starter (Zach Wheeler; I would not mind their number 1 or 2, btw)

2. Sign Partrick Corrbin

 

With Berrios number 3

Gibson number 4 and 

Pineda/Odorizzi number 5

 

You got a competitive rotation

The comment I replied to led me to believe what was wanted was a rotation better than what Cleveland has, not maybe competitive. Wheeler is a fine pitcher. Corbin either had a breakout season or a career year.Either way it still does not get you pitchers better than the top of Cleveland's rotation.

 

The kicker to signing Corbin would be the domino effect in Arizona. If the Twins are not on his limited no trade list it does set up some interesting possibilities if the Twins were in a go for it mode. One year of an All Star 1B and an true Ace.

Edited by old nurse, 10 October 2018 - 03:58 PM.

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#49 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 10 October 2018 - 05:56 PM

Unless the Twins are getting another $50 million check from BAMTec this year (they aren't), payroll is not going to be as high next year.

It's well documented that they top out payroll at 52% of revenue.

#50 snepp

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Posted 10 October 2018 - 06:33 PM

 

This is the direction I'm leaning right now as well. If you let Robbie go, you need to replace him with a better bat, and one that's proven it in the majors. If you non-tender Grossman with the objective of letting it ride with internal options, you're taking an unnecessary risk. And to everyone thinking $4 million is a lot of money, you need to remove your glasses that have Pohlad-colored lenses, lol.

 

Grossman was the Twins' best hitter in the second half, his 128 wRC+ after the break was tied for 33rd among the 165 AL hitters (top 20 percent) with at least 100 PAs and his defense was better than 2017 -- not good, but better. Meanwhile, Cave had a 33.0 K% to go with just a 5.8 BB% and Wade hit .229/.337/.336 over 294 PAs in Triple A.

 

Bird in hand vs. two in bush.

 

And at $4 million, if someone forces him out later (say Wade) through their performance, you can either deal him for a ptbnl, or just outright release him and eat the rest. That's not the kind of money that *should* restrict any roster decisions in a year with so much available payroll available.

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#51 Mike Sixel

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Posted 10 October 2018 - 07:03 PM

 

And at $4 million, if someone forces him out later (say Wade) through their performance, you can either deal him for a ptbnl, or just outright release him and eat the rest. That's not the kind of money that *should* restrict any roster decisions in a year with so much available payroll available.

 

How does someone beat him out, if they are in the minors, and he's in the majors? 

I remain hopeful on Buxton and Sano.....but I'd not bet the franchise on them.


#52 snepp

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Posted 10 October 2018 - 07:17 PM

 

How does someone beat him out, if they are in the minors, and he's in the majors? 

 

Is it not possible for someone tearing up the high minors to replace a fringe guy on the majors roster that isn't carrying his weight?

 

Is it some outlandish possibility? I guess I'm missing the point of the question, it happens all the time.

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#53 Winston Smith

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Posted 10 October 2018 - 07:48 PM

This is off topic but does anyone here know how much Int. Pool money the Twins have?

If you don't know where you are going, you might wind up someplace else.

 

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#54 Mike Sixel

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Posted 10 October 2018 - 08:25 PM

 

Is it not possible for someone tearing up the high minors to replace a fringe guy on the majors roster that isn't carrying his weight?

 

Is it some outlandish possibility? I guess I'm missing the point of the question, it happens all the time.

 

When did it last happen in MN? Maybe this FO is different but maybe not....

 

It's just easier to let him go, and not worry about the roster spot at all. IMO, of course.

I remain hopeful on Buxton and Sano.....but I'd not bet the franchise on them.


#55 Mike Sixel

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Posted 10 October 2018 - 08:25 PM

 

This is off topic but does anyone here know how much Int. Pool money the Twins have?

 

Not enough to sign either Cuban worth signing at this point....

 

https://www.fangraph...gaston-workout/

 

I remain hopeful on Buxton and Sano.....but I'd not bet the franchise on them.


#56 yarnivek1972

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Posted 10 October 2018 - 08:30 PM

When did it last happen in MN? Maybe this FO is different but maybe not....

It's just easier to let him go, and not worry about the roster spot at all. IMO, of course.

Last time I can recall a midseason minor leaguer replacing a failing veteran was Jason Bartlett replacing Juan Castro in 2006. Castro was traded for a nobody. The Twins, meanwhile, after sending him and Tony Batista packing went on one of the most inpressive stretches of baseball in MLB history. They played something close to .700 ball from like the first week of June on.


Edit: Yeah. The Twins were walked off in Seattle on June 7 to drop to 25-33. They then went 71-33 the rest of the way.

Edited by yarnivek1972, 10 October 2018 - 08:39 PM.


#57 Winston Smith

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Posted 10 October 2018 - 09:01 PM

 

Not enough to sign either Cuban worth signing at this point....

 

https://www.fangraph...gaston-workout/

I was thinking more of trading some of it to the teams trying to sign them.

If you don't know where you are going, you might wind up someplace else.

 

Yogi Berra


#58 old nurse

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Posted 10 October 2018 - 09:08 PM

 

Last time I can recall a midseason minor leaguer replacing a failing veteran was Jason Bartlett replacing Juan Castro in 2006. Castro was traded for a nobody. The Twins, meanwhile, after sending him and Tony Batista packing went on one of the most inpressive stretches of baseball in MLB history. They played something close to .700 ball from like the first week of June on.


Edit: Yeah. The Twins were walked off in Seattle on June 7 to drop to 25-33. They then went 71-33 the rest of the way.

The problem is that there really hasn't been a prospect "tearing up" AAA that was not called up. To replace the struggling vet you need to have someone that could do something.


#59 Physics Guy

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Posted 10 October 2018 - 09:54 PM

Assuming the Twins sign a SS/2B and protection for 3B, it would come down to Grossman or Austin. I prefer to give Austin the chance.


#60 LA VIkes Fan

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Posted 11 October 2018 - 12:49 PM

 

This is the direction I'm leaning right now as well. If you let Robbie go, you need to replace him with a better bat, and one that's proven it in the majors. If you non-tender Grossman with the objective of letting it ride with internal options, you're taking an unnecessary risk. And to everyone thinking $4 million is a lot of money, you need to remove your glasses that have Pohlad-colored lenses, lol.

 

Grossman was the Twins' best hitter in the second half, his 128 wRC+ after the break was tied for 33rd among the 165 AL hitters (top 20 percent) with at least 100 PAs and his defense was better than 2017 -- not good, but better. Meanwhile, Cave had a 33.0 K% to go with just a 5.8 BB% and Wade hit .229/.337/.336 over 294 PAs in Triple A.

 

Bird in hand vs. two in bush.

Agree with you Wade, but I just don't get why so many people are down on Cave. He hit .269/.316/.481 (.797), 1.5 WAR, 115 OPS+ in 300 PAs or roughly half a season. Yes, he had a 33% SO rate and a high BABIP but SO rate is somehting that typically improves with more ABs. His BABIP rate is consistent with his hard hit rate. He's only a passable CF, but he's a pretty good RF. In any event, Cave is a substantially better fielder than Grossman and I would argue is a more productive hitter - more power, better run production, more upside.Cave was the second best starting OF we had last year and should be starting as an every day OF next year if we go by performance.

 

Is there a place for Grossman? Maybe as a 4th OF if Kepler moves to 1B. Maybe, but only until Rooker or Krilloff is ready. If Kepler stays in the OF, it comes down to Grossman vs. probably Astudillo as the 25th man if we keep an 8 man BP, which we're likely to do given that starting staff. I'd keep Astudillo. We know what Grossman is, he's unlikely to get better. Cave and Astudillo might develop further and need ABs to do that (or show that this year was an aberration). Grossman is a 5th OF/part time DH/bench bat on a good team. He has more value on a good team than on a devloping team like the Twins. Better to use that spot on a player we think can develop into more. The opportunity cost in terms of roster spot and ABs is too high to keep him, particularly at $4m. 

Edited by LA VIkes Fan, 11 October 2018 - 12:52 PM.