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Twins projected arb salaries

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#21 yarnivek1972

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Posted 09 October 2018 - 07:01 PM

Kinda curious as to what kind of track record mlbtraderumors has for this. Kepler and Sano seem pretty high for two guys that haven’t done much. Sano at his best in 2017 was a 2.5 bWAR. He was a train wreck this year. Kepler was 2.0 in 2017 and 2.8 in 2018. I was figuring about $2.25 mil or so for each.

#22 jorgenswest

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Posted 09 October 2018 - 07:03 PM

great, what about his defense, and expense compared to them? And, there is ZERO upside, at least Cave or Wade could surprise us......

edit: I'm sure he'll switch bats, adopt a launch angle approach, and hit 30 bombs.....on another team.....but I'm willing to take that chance....


Huh? I would not tender Grossman so I really don’t get the response. I want a clear upgrade. I want a really good bat.
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#23 Sconnie

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Posted 09 October 2018 - 07:29 PM

Non-tender Grossman and trade-for/ sign a RF push Kepler into the 4th outfielder role/Buxton insurance.

Non-tender Adrianza. There’s a bunch of middle infield FAs available this offseason. Forsythe as utility isn’t all bad. There’s options.

The bullpen needs improvement badly, as do SS and 3b/1b but that’s another subject

#24 Winston Smith

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Posted 09 October 2018 - 07:44 PM

 

Non-tender Grossman and trade-for/ sign a RF push Kepler into the 4th outfielder role/Buxton insurance.

Non-tender Adrianza. There’s a bunch of middle infield FAs available this offseason. Forsythe as utility isn’t all bad. There’s options.

The bullpen needs improvement badly, as do SS and 3b/1b but that’s another subject

Sign Cutch he's still a decent player, let Cave, Buxton and Kepler fight it out in the spring 2 make the team one goes to AAA as ins.

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#25 Seth Stohs

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Posted 09 October 2018 - 08:27 PM

 

I was not aware that a team could not negotiate with a player before the December date to offer arbitration. I really don't think that is the case. When players loke Ortiz were released, Ryan did not talk to them about contracts first?

 

They absolutely can negotiate before offering arbitration. Teams do it often, even if not official. 

 

Using Adrianza as an example, maybe the Twins go to his representatives and say "We'll offer 1 year, $1.4 million." The representative can say Yes and accept that deal. Or, the representative/agent can talk to Adrianza and they decide not to accept that offer. Then the Twins would non-tender him rather than tender him a contract on that particular day. He'd then be a free agent. 

 

Once they offer arbitration, they can't go back on it, though as other people have said, those arbitration agreements are not fully guaranteed until whatever day it is before the season starts. 

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#26 Seth Stohs

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Posted 09 October 2018 - 08:30 PM

 

Kinda curious as to what kind of track record mlbtraderumors has for this. Kepler and Sano seem pretty high for two guys that haven’t done much. Sano at his best in 2017 was a 2.5 bWAR. He was a train wreck this year. Kepler was 2.0 in 2017 and 2.8 in 2018. I was figuring about $2.25 mil or so for each.

 

2.5 WAR is a pretty valuable player, easily worthy of that number... And Kepler was at 2.8 fWAR this year despite the low batting average. 

 

MLB Trade Rumors has a really good track record. I'm sure there is some plus-minus factor, but they use arbitration history and other things to figure it all out. 

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#27 beckmt

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Posted 10 October 2018 - 12:25 AM

Odorizzi and Rosario seemed high to me, but do not totally know the market.Twins need to take care of the core and that means signing Rosario and Berrios to extensions before they get too close to free agency.  

I would look long and hard at whether I would tender Oderrizi at that rate, my guess is the Twins will and see what happens.They can cut there losses in spring training or with a trade if better options appear.

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#28 RatherBeGolfing

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Posted 10 October 2018 - 07:04 AM

Grossman lol

 

Thanks for the memories buddy, but no way


#29 rdehring

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Posted 10 October 2018 - 07:25 AM

I don't get all the dislike of Grossman.If memory serves, and it doesn't always anymore, he hit much better during the later part of the season when he was getting regular playing time.Many gripe about his defense.OK, he isn't great.But he also doesn't seem to be as bad as he was a couple years ago when his D was a liability.So I don't see his D as a liability, just not a positive.

 

As for his place on this team, I see him as the last guy on the squad.If they can keep 13 position players next year, he either has a spot or is fighting with Astudillo for that last spot.Expect those decisions get made the end of March...not now.If he doesn't make the cut, they can either release him or work out a deal with someone who values what he brings to the team.

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#30 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 10 October 2018 - 07:37 AM

not sure where I put Grossman. I think Cave has earned that spot to be honest. I guess the question for me is what is the plan with Buxton. I'd probably start him in the minors, but I don't think I want Grossman as my primary backup or Cave as my primary starter in that scenario. I'd probably get someone on a 1 year make good deal, non-tender Grossman, and let Cave have another year as the 4th OF. Grossman is getting a bit too expensive, and he was a black hole to start 2018. Maybe it was just bad luck, but he was always marginal talent and is at an age where his talent may not get him by like it has the last few seasons.

 

On the flip side, they should have a good 40M to spend. I hope they do what they did last year and pick up a bunch of guys that can help them contend. Worst case, they can flip them at the deadline again.. at least the ones on short deals. I do hope they pick up a couple of longer term deals. 


#31 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 10 October 2018 - 07:38 AM

BTW, Adrianza as a backup is fine. His bat isn't bad for a SS and he has a decent glove. I woudln't want to count on him as a starter, but he's a much better option than a lot of MI backups around the league. 

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#32 puckstopper1

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Posted 10 October 2018 - 07:52 AM

Is it just me or is anyone else shocked that the Twins only have three players under "regular" contracts for next year - Castro, Reed and Pineada.Is that possible?Everyone else is a Option, Buyout, FA or Arb eligible.

 

I guess the good news is that this does provide for a significant amount of flexibility.

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#33 Tomj14

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Posted 10 October 2018 - 08:15 AM

I am confused on the cut/let go Odorizzi comments.

A 28 year old pitcher with a career ERA a hair below 4, that strikes out about 1 guy an inning.

Had a WAR of 1.6 this year and was 26th in innings pitched in the American league.

Sure he isn't a top of the rotation guy, at this time he is the third best starting pitcher the Twins have, without a replacement. Romero and/or Pineada both could be better than him and hopefully they are but that is no sure thing. None of the minor league guys showed the stuff that they are.

The only way I let him go is because the 9.4 hinders the owners from signing somebody else better (which in my opinion is ridiculous) . He seems like the perfect guy you keep and if him and the Twins are good, win/win. If the Twins are good and he is bad, you slide him into the bullpen, if the Twins are bad and he is good, he is a great trade chip.

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#34 Shaitan

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Posted 10 October 2018 - 08:24 AM

Much like Punto in years past, he's earning pocket change as far as MLB money goes. A QO is worth like $18m this year. 

 

If he fits the roster is a valid question. I but I could care less if he's paid $4 million a year.

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#35 Major League Ready

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Posted 10 October 2018 - 08:50 AM

 

I am confused on the cut/let go Odorizzi comments.

A 28 year old pitcher with a career ERA a hair below 4, that strikes out about 1 guy an inning.

Had a WAR of 1.6 this year and was 26th in innings pitched in the American league.

Sure he isn't a top of the rotation guy, at this time he is the third best starting pitcher the Twins have, without a replacement. Romero and/or Pineada both could be better than him and hopefully they are but that is no sure thing. None of the minor league guys showed the stuff that they are.

The only way I let him go is because the 9.4 hinders the owners from signing somebody else better (which in my opinion is ridiculous) . He seems like the perfect guy you keep and if him and the Twins are good, win/win. If the Twins are good and he is bad, you slide him into the bullpen, if the Twins are bad and he is good, he is a great trade chip.

 

Fangraphs list his WAR at 2.6. Was the 1.6 a typo or does another source list him at 1.6? Regardless, his track record is a WAR of 2-3. Why cut him until one of our prospects proves they are ready unless you get a FA that is significantly better and those are in very short supply.

Edited by Major Leauge Ready, 10 October 2018 - 09:05 AM.

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#36 beckmt

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Posted 10 October 2018 - 11:46 AM

 

Fangraphs list his WAR at 2.6. Was the 1.6 a typo or does another source list him at 1.6? Regardless, his track record is a WAR of 2-3. Why cut him until one of our prospects proves they are ready unless you get a FA that is significantly better and those are in very short supply.

Let's do this by the numbers.

1.Is he better than any of Cleveland's top 4 starters.Answer - No

2.Should he be in a playoff Rotation - Answer No

 

He needs to be signed as a backup option, but Twins will need to do better if they wish to beat Cleveland in 2019.If this is a sort them out year then Oderizzi is fine, but there are several mid to better level FA's this year, Twins need to find one or two of them.

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#37 old nurse

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Posted 10 October 2018 - 12:08 PM

 

Let's do this by the numbers.

1.Is he better than any of Cleveland's top 4 starters.Answer - No

2.Should he be in a playoff Rotation - Answer No

 

He needs to be signed as a backup option, but Twins will need to do better if they wish to beat Cleveland in 2019.If this is a sort them out year then Oderizzi is fine, but there are several mid to better level FA's this year, Twins need to find one or two of them.

So where are the Twins going to find 2 SP that have ERAs in the 2 range? Add to that 2 more in the low 3 range.Berrios might develop into that. Romero and Gonsalves down the road, but not for 2019.

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#38 alarp33

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Posted 10 October 2018 - 12:16 PM

 

Let's do this by the numbers.

1.Is he better than any of Cleveland's top 4 starters.Answer - No

2.Should he be in a playoff Rotation - Answer No

 

He needs to be signed as a backup option, but Twins will need to do better if they wish to beat Cleveland in 2019.If this is a sort them out year then Oderizzi is fine, but there are several mid to better level FA's this year, Twins need to find one or two of them.

 

So there is not room on the roster for anyone who is not "better than Cleveland's top 4 starters"? Yikes, I hope Berrios is ready to pitch 700 innings next year with those qualifiers. 

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#39 beckmt

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Posted 10 October 2018 - 12:19 PM

 

So where are the Twins going to find 2 SP that have ERAs in the 2 range? Add to that 2 more in the low 3 range.Berrios might develop into that. Romero and Gonsalves down the road, but not for 2019.

Depends on the money you want to spend.They will have to be FA signings with the view of Pineda, Oderizziand maybe Gibson will be gone at the end of 2019.Twins offense could be better than Cleveland's if the players develop and hit more than they did this year.Bullpen will also be better than Cleveland's as do not see Cleveland spending a huge amount to fix the pen.


#40 beckmt

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Posted 10 October 2018 - 12:20 PM

 

So where are the Twins going to find 2 SP that have ERAs in the 2 range? Add to that 2 more in the low 3 range.Berrios might develop into that. Romero and Gonsalves down the road, but not for 2019.

 

With the changes the ERA's of the starters will have to be in the mid to upper threes to compete.