Jump to content

Providing independent coverage of the Minnesota Twins.
Subscribe to Twins Daily Email
Photo

But for the will to act

twins brewers front office lewis brinson deadspin
  • Please log in to reply
117 replies to this topic

#101 Riverbrian

Riverbrian

    Goofy Moderator

  • Twins Mods
  • 19,942 posts
  • LocationGrand Forks, ND

Posted 11 October 2018 - 06:13 AM

 

Like Brian said, in the context of these forums, there are always going to be people right/wrong. It's just the nature of the beast.

 

However, in the context of the front office, I don't think it's their job to simply avoid these kind of moves either. I got the impression that the old front office did just that -- they couldn't make any big mistakes because they avoided big moves altogether. Still early with the new front office, but I hope they don't fall into the same trap.

 

In that sense, I think these Brewers are a positive example. It doesn't mean that a particular big move X makes sense for the Twins now, but if the new FO is doing their jobs correctly, they should be expected to make some big move X over time period Y -- even if it tightens payroll, even if it doesn't make us a favorite to win the World Series or even our own division, etc.

 

I think the time is now. 

 

We have cheap potential in Buxton, Sano, Kepler, Polanco and Rosario. By being collectively inexpensive they have the flexibility to be priced as depth. 

 

Buxton is priced like he's a 4th OF... so call him the 4th OF and go get the 1st or 2nd OF. 

 

 

  • h2oface likes this

A Skeleton walks into a bar and says... "Give me a beer... And a mop".

 

President of the "Baseball Player Positional Flexibility" Club 

Founded 4-23-16 

 

Strike Zone Automation Advocate

 

I'm not a starting 9 guy!!!


#102 Major League Ready

Major League Ready

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 1,698 posts

Posted 11 October 2018 - 07:42 AM

 

I think the time is now. 

 

We have cheap potential in Buxton, Sano, Kepler, Polanco and Rosario. By being collectively inexpensive they have the flexibility to be priced as depth. 

 

Buxton is priced like he's a 4th OF... so call him the 4th OF and go get the 1st or 2nd OF. 

 

I think most of us would agree the bright spot for this team is we have a lot of inexpensive talent with potential. The question is how certain is this potential?
How many guys on the 25 man do we think we can count on and how do we compare across all areas of the team against established contenders? Let’s look at each area.

Starting Pitching – We have two good SP and no great SPs. Houston, Cleveland, Boston are grossly superior.

 

Bullpen – We had one guy (Rogers) emerge this year. He is the only guy that has dominated and that is a relatively SSS. We can also reasonably expect May to be pretty good. All of the contenders have better to grossly superior BPs.

 

Position Players – We have one guy (Rosario) with a WAR over 3 last year and he was terrible the 2nd half of the season. Has the league adjusted? I think he will probably equal his 3.5 WAR but I find it hard to count on him doing something he has never demonstrated the ability to do. I am not going to go through the exercise of comparing our 25 man to Houston, Boson or NY or even Cleveland. Any of those teams are filled with established players that are far better than our best.

 

Every day is the time to act. The question is what type of investment should we make as part of this “time to act”? I think every single person here would trade decent prospects for an above average guy (Yelich) that breaks out to superstar status. Outside of this type of obvious scenario, do you commit every dollar of payroll budget you have for the next 3 or more years to free agent players or do you hold a little back to allow for a mid-season upgrade or addition next year? Do you trade Kirilloff or Lewis? How about any of our top pitching prospects.

  • Teflon and Blackjack like this

#103 Riverbrian

Riverbrian

    Goofy Moderator

  • Twins Mods
  • 19,942 posts
  • LocationGrand Forks, ND

Posted 11 October 2018 - 11:05 AM

 

I think most of us would agree the bright spot for this team is we have a lot of inexpensive talent with potential. The question is how certain is this potential?
How many guys on the 25 man do we think we can count on and how do we compare across all areas of the team against established contenders? Let’s look at each area.

Starting Pitching – We have two good SP and no great SPs. Houston, Cleveland, Boston are grossly superior.

 

Bullpen – We had one guy (Rogers) emerge this year. He is the only guy that has dominated and that is a relatively SSS. We can also reasonably expect May to be pretty good. All of the contenders have better to grossly superior BPs.

 

Position Players – We have one guy (Rosario) with a WAR over 3 last year and he was terrible the 2nd half of the season. Has the league adjusted? I think he will probably equal his 3.5 WAR but I find it hard to count on him doing something he has never demonstrated the ability to do. I am not going to go through the exercise of comparing our 25 man to Houston, Boson or NY or even Cleveland. Any of those teams are filled with established players that are far better than our best.

 

Every day is the time to act. The question is what type of investment should we make as part of this “time to act”? I think every single person here would trade decent prospects for an above average guy (Yelich) that breaks out to superstar status. Outside of this type of obvious scenario, do you commit every dollar of payroll budget you have for the next 3 or more years to free agent players or do you hold a little back to allow for a mid-season upgrade or addition next year? Do you trade Kirilloff or Lewis? How about any of our top pitching prospects.

 

Right now... I'd settle for simple diversification to protect the overall investment. We just saw what happened when they invested in a single stock and saw the stock bottom out.

 

Personally... I'm not even counting on Rosario. What he did this year doesn't mean he will do it again next year. He could get hurt or start swinging at back foot sliders and not get himself out of it. 

 

Go get an outfielder... Don't care who at the moment... that's the job of the front office... Just get someone who has a reasonable chance to surpass the projected production of Kepler, Rosario and Buxton that the three of them can compete against for playing time. If all 4 of them work... Wonderful. And then a new manager who knows how to handle too many players and that's where my daily flexibility diatribes come in. Prepare for success and Prepare for Failure. 

 

Sano, Buxton, Kepler will have to sink or swim but they won't be allowed to sink us if they don't swim. 

 

I am also of the opinion that we don't need to compare ourselves to Houston, Boston or anyone. We just need a team that can compete against all 29 baseball teams. I've seen David Freese win a world series. I've seen Brock Holt hit for the cycle in a small sample size. Build a base of 25 players who can play... find yourself in playoff contention and acquire at the deadline additional pieces that can improve us even more (on paper of course). 

 

I have no opinion on Lewis or Kiriloff... I am excited about them just like I was excited about Sano and Buxton. What I want is for Lewis or Kiriloff is win a job when the time comes and not be handed a locked down job and allowed to struggle while they learn on the job. I want them to be Juan Soto-esque when they knock down the door to further deeper our roster. 

 

I leave it to the front office to decide what prospects they can part with and which ones they can't if it takes a trade to acquire the right guy. It doesn't matter to me what avenue they choose to staff the roster next year be it trade, FA, waivers or promotion but I do expect every single guy on the 25 man roster to be competitive for a starting role. Anything short of that... I'll assume that they didn't learn their lesson from this year. 

 

I'm not willing to watch a guy hit .130 and play every day any more. I'm tired of LaMarre and Kinley getting roster spots and not being utilized because they were not good enough to out perform a guy hitting .130 

  • Mike Sixel, Teflon and Sconnie like this

A Skeleton walks into a bar and says... "Give me a beer... And a mop".

 

President of the "Baseball Player Positional Flexibility" Club 

Founded 4-23-16 

 

Strike Zone Automation Advocate

 

I'm not a starting 9 guy!!!


#104 Monkeypaws

Monkeypaws

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 2,160 posts

Posted 12 October 2018 - 06:58 PM

 

 

 

But, waiting until they are "one piece away" is a pipe dream. No team is one piece away. 

 

 

Disagree strongly sir. Verlander to Houston last year - one player away.

 

Dodgers and Machado this year looking the same.

 

Blyleven back to theTwins, or Chili Davis, or Jack Morris, for local context. One player can make all the difference.

 


#105 yarnivek1972

yarnivek1972

    Minnesota Twins

  • Members
  • 4,452 posts

Posted 12 October 2018 - 07:44 PM

At my restaurant, I was trying to order gaskets for one of our line freezers. I kept calling the number and either got a recording or no one would answer at all. For several days, no reply. My owner kept asking me what was taking so long. I told him “I can’t make this guy answer his phone.” We finally got them by having the company that does most of our cooler maintenence contact the gasket company.

What’s the relevance of this story?

Contrary to the belief of some, the Twins can’t make free agent X sign a contract. That’s kinda the whole point of being a free agent. They can go where they want. Maybe the Twins offered the most money, maybe not. Most believe the Twins WAY overpaid for the likes of Ricky Nolasco and Jason Castro. Why? Most likely because they wouldn’t have come to Minnesota otherwise. Some guys would rather be in New York or Los Angeles or Washington or wherever. Sure, some might actually prefer Minnesota. Enough A types to help? Probably not. That’s the way it is. Falvine’s job is to change that mindset. He not only has to sell the team, he has to sell the city.

#106 Battle ur tail off

Battle ur tail off

    Cedar Rapids

  • Members
  • 134 posts

Posted 13 October 2018 - 10:43 AM

 

At my restaurant, I was trying to order gaskets for one of our line freezers. I kept calling the number and either got a recording or no one would answer at all. For several days, no reply. My owner kept asking me what was taking so long. I told him “I can’t make this guy answer his phone.” We finally got them by having the company that does most of our cooler maintenence contact the gasket company.

What’s the relevance of this story?

Contrary to the belief of some, the Twins can’t make free agent X sign a contract. That’s kinda the whole point of being a free agent. They can go where they want. Maybe the Twins offered the most money, maybe not. Most believe the Twins WAY overpaid for the likes of Ricky Nolasco and Jason Castro. Why? Most likely because they wouldn’t have come to Minnesota otherwise. Some guys would rather be in New York or Los Angeles or Washington or wherever. Sure, some might actually prefer Minnesota. Enough A types to help? Probably not. That’s the way it is. Falvine’s job is to change that mindset. He not only has to sell the team, he has to sell the city.

 

I can agree with this post, but want to also point out that history has shown us the Twins generally lowball, then tell our media how hard they tried. 

 

And when you are talking about guy like Ricky Nolasco or Jason Castro? Yes, they might have overpaid, but I would argue that these types are not even worth going after in the first place and a good example of the type of mid level guys the Twins generally sign and generally never work out. 

 

Your free agent and trade success "probably" goes up when you are only signing top end guys or trading for A level talent. It's when you aim so long all the time that you are disappointed. Or course Nolasco didn't work out here. He was never any better than the guys the Twins hired him to replace in the first place. 

 

I'd like them to go for the big guys, overpay them if you have identified them as people that will really help your club. If you still can't get them, then fill in with your home-grown guys and try again next time. The never ending signing, trading for and heck even drafting/international signing that kind of talent has put this program where it is right now. 

  • Mike Sixel and TheLeviathan like this

#107 Mike Sixel

Mike Sixel

    Now living in Oregon

  • Members
  • 27,554 posts

Posted 13 October 2018 - 10:48 AM

 

At my restaurant, I was trying to order gaskets for one of our line freezers. I kept calling the number and either got a recording or no one would answer at all. For several days, no reply. My owner kept asking me what was taking so long. I told him “I can’t make this guy answer his phone.” We finally got them by having the company that does most of our cooler maintenence contact the gasket company.

What’s the relevance of this story?

Contrary to the belief of some, the Twins can’t make free agent X sign a contract. That’s kinda the whole point of being a free agent. They can go where they want. Maybe the Twins offered the most money, maybe not. Most believe the Twins WAY overpaid for the likes of Ricky Nolasco and Jason Castro. Why? Most likely because they wouldn’t have come to Minnesota otherwise. Some guys would rather be in New York or Los Angeles or Washington or wherever. Sure, some might actually prefer Minnesota. Enough A types to help? Probably not. That’s the way it is. Falvine’s job is to change that mindset. He not only has to sell the team, he has to sell the city.

 

I doubt anyone has ever posted that the Twins can make someone sign here.....

 

Overpaying for bad players is probably not a good way to build a team....though I think Castro gets a bad rap here he doesn't deserve.

  • Carole Keller likes this

I remain hopeful on Buxton and Sano.....but I'd not bet the franchise on them.


#108 TheLeviathan

TheLeviathan

    Twins News Team

  • Members
  • 15,606 posts

Posted 13 October 2018 - 11:08 AM

"No one wants to come to Minnesota" is something every market other than NY, LA, Bos, and Miami say when someone signs elsewhere.

 

It's nonsense.Money talks, always does.Of course Castro and Nolasco came here because we offered the most money.That's what FA is.

  • Mike Sixel and Danchat like this

#109 Rosterman

Rosterman

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 3,108 posts

Posted 13 October 2018 - 01:49 PM

Out of all the moves the Twins made, I expected the Rodney one to be the worse, instead of possibly the better of them all. Lance Lynn was a fine workhorse starter who should've easily won 14-15 games with a much lower ERA than he had last season. Expected Logan Morrison to put up a few better plate appearances. Not a rehash of his previous season power, but a tad better than he did. Actually felt Addison Reed would push Rodney for the closer role, or step into the role if Rodney was traded (or released). Zach Duke did what was expected, anchor that apt of the bullpen, for better or worse. 

 

A full season of Ervin Santana in a walk year didn't happen. Dozier imploded in his free agent season and will be interesting to see what the off-season brings. I'm hoping Jake Odorizzi builds on his late season success as did Kyle Gibson the season before. What would we be like with a full season of Polanco.

 

Of course, the holes in the whole mess was total non-production from Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano.

 

The Twins did well, albeit in a weak division, to win 78 games. If everything had worked out, they might've given Cleveland a run for their money, we would've picked up the Santana and Morrison option, given Dozier a qualifying offer, and signing Buxton and Sano to bigtime longterm contracts!

Joel Thingvall
www.joelthingvall.com
rosterman at www.twinscards.com


#110 yarnivek1972

yarnivek1972

    Minnesota Twins

  • Members
  • 4,452 posts

Posted 13 October 2018 - 03:10 PM

I doubt anyone has ever posted that the Twins can make someone sign here.....

Overpaying for bad players is probably not a good way to build a team....though I think Castro gets a bad rap here he doesn't deserve.


Every post that says go out and sign so and so is essentially saying it.


My point though is that the Twins HAVE to overpay mediocre players because that’s probably the only way they will come here. The same would likely be true of higher caliber players. If Machado would take $30 mil to play for LA, maybe he would tell the Twins it would take $35 mil. Just to use an example. Maybe the Twins offer $33 and Machado takes $30 from LA. That scenario wouldn’t surprise me at all.

#111 TheLeviathan

TheLeviathan

    Twins News Team

  • Members
  • 15,606 posts

Posted 13 October 2018 - 03:18 PM

Everyone has to outpay their competitors. This tired nonsense about “coming to Minnesota” should be banned as part of the forum’s rules.

It’s false and tiresome.
  • Mike Sixel likes this

#112 yarnivek1972

yarnivek1972

    Minnesota Twins

  • Members
  • 4,452 posts

Posted 13 October 2018 - 03:20 PM

Everyone has to outpay their competitors. This tired nonsense about “coming to Minnesota” should be banned as part of the forum’s rules.

It’s false and tiresome.



Do have any facts to back that up? Do I? No. Ask yourself which scenario is more plausible.

#113 TheLeviathan

TheLeviathan

    Twins News Team

  • Members
  • 15,606 posts

Posted 13 October 2018 - 03:23 PM

Do have any facts to back that up? Do I? No. Ask yourself which scenario is more plausible.


The one where money talks. Players go where they are paid the most.

The Twins don’t have to overpay any more or less than anyone else. Offer the most money = sign the player. Just. Like. Everyone. Else.

They use your tired argument in Wisconsin, Phoenix, and even Chicago BTW. It’s false there too.
  • Mike Sixel likes this

#114 yarnivek1972

yarnivek1972

    Minnesota Twins

  • Members
  • 4,452 posts

Posted 13 October 2018 - 03:28 PM

The one where money talks. Players go where they are paid the most.

The Twins don’t have to overpay any more or less than anyone else. Offer the most money = sign the player. Just. Like. Everyone. Else.

They use your tired argument in Wisconsin, Phoenix, and even Chicago BTW. It’s false there too.


You seriously don’t believe that some pro athletes have other priorities?

You seriously don’t believe that some would rather live/work somewhere other than Minnesota when the difference is $12 mil vs $ 10 mil? How much money can a guy spend?

#115 TheLeviathan

TheLeviathan

    Twins News Team

  • Members
  • 15,606 posts

Posted 13 October 2018 - 03:39 PM

You seriously don’t believe that some pro athletes have other priorities?
You seriously don’t believe that some would rather live/work somewhere other than Minnesota when the difference is $12 mil vs $ 10 mil? How much money can a guy spend?


If you guarantee me a huge cash out at the casino...what do I care about the buffet choices?

Money is what I came for, that's what matters.

#116 yarnivek1972

yarnivek1972

    Minnesota Twins

  • Members
  • 4,452 posts

Posted 13 October 2018 - 03:50 PM

If you guarantee me a huge cash out at the casino...what do I care about the buffet choices?

Money is what I came for, that's what matters.


That’s YOU. This may come as a surprise to you, but not everyone worships at the altar of the Almighty Dollar.

#117 TheLeviathan

TheLeviathan

    Twins News Team

  • Members
  • 15,606 posts

Posted 13 October 2018 - 05:10 PM

That’s YOU. This may come as a surprise to you, but not everyone worships at the altar of the Almighty Dollar.


I think You're projecting. I've heard this silly excuse in four different markets. It's what fans do to rationalize why their team was outbid.

It's not true about MN anymore than it is here in Phoenix when they make the same excuse.

#118 ashburyjohn

ashburyjohn

    Haighters gonna Haight

  • Twins Mods
  • 19,967 posts
  • LocationNatick, MA

Posted 13 October 2018 - 05:17 PM

That’s YOU. This may come as a surprise to you, but not everyone worships at the altar of the Almighty Dollar.

So now we're reduced to complaining about the unSelfish Modern Ballplayer. :)

  • Mike Sixel and TheLeviathan like this

A painter should not paint what he sees, but what will be seen.-- Paul Valery




Also tagged with one or more of these keywords: twins, brewers, front office, lewis brinson, deadspin