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But for the will to act

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#21 tarheeltwinsfan

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Posted 09 October 2018 - 11:22 AM

 

 

 

Also, while I'd like with a Yelich-type move this offseason for the Twins, I'd be more interested in figuring out what exactly the Brewers did to change Yelich's game. That might be more important than the actual trade. He is a completely different hitter than he was in Miami.

Agree 100%


#22 USAFChief

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Posted 09 October 2018 - 11:26 AM

I like how aggressive the Brewers were and I like the example the set.

However, I still can't believe that rotation won them 96 games. I think they got lucky in that area and think putting a good but not elite offense around what appeared to be an average at best rotation was a bit reckless and shortsighted.

Or, an average at best rotation isn’t as important as we’ve been led to believe, when coupled to a good and deep bullpen.

And if they were reckless and shortsighted, I hope Falvine suffer from the same affliction.
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#23 Jham

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Posted 09 October 2018 - 11:33 AM

I think you're missing the point. It's not the specific players that matter. It's the willingness to take bold action to improve the big league roster, by spending money and prospects for immediate gain.

It's having the courage and vision to spend. It's not sitting around too afraid to pull the trigger because, oh my gosh, we're not the Yankees! What about 2022? What if one of these prospects become a MLB player?

Huzzah for the Brewers. Seize the day. Take a shot. It might go in.

Agreed. There is absolutely nothing lucky about getting identifying places where the team can improve, even if not a problem, and upgrading! If anything, the teams that wait for prospects and work on 3 to 5 year contention plans are the team's going to "get lucky". The royals and pirates and Indians have been mostly terrible for decades. 2 of those teams had true contention windows. There's a hindsight bias involved. Adding some veteran pieces generates expectations of contention. Success is expected and goes unnoticed. Building from within with young talent requires that a lot of things outside of your control go right, and when you hit, you look like a genius. In poker, they call it a "hero call". Low percentage play that makes you look good when it works.

I've always said a GMs role is to constantly look to improve overall talent of the roster. Then let the chips fall where they may. Not to assume you're going to be good or bad.

There is not a single position that can't be upgraded on our roster. Upgrade where it's easiest and cheapest. Don't worry about a plan or a 3 year old prospect report. Suggesting we have to improve "here" but "here" makes no sense. Improve wherever you can!

Also, trading Prospect for Value isn't giving up on them.

Edited by Jham, 09 October 2018 - 11:36 AM.

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#24 TheLeviathan

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Posted 09 October 2018 - 11:38 AM

It should be pointed out that in recent memory other teams have tried this and seen very different results.The Padres a few years back, the White Sox had a few years of doing that, Seattle, etc.

 

I think aggression, like prospect hording, trading, and any other actions a club can take are about timing and approach.You can't constantly have your foot on the gas any more than you can constantly ride the brake.

 

Smart teams find a way to take their foot off to reload and then press it back down hard when the time is right.

Edited by TheLeviathan, 09 October 2018 - 12:01 PM.

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#25 Tomj14

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Posted 09 October 2018 - 11:47 AM

I am surprised that people didn't think Yelich would have the year he had. Milwaukee seems like a band box, and last year I would have traded Kepler or Rosario for him. (had this discussion with a guy at work)

 

They went out an upgraded a position, Santana was decent in 2017 but wasn't before that.

Edited by Tomj14, 09 October 2018 - 11:50 AM.

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#26 Number3

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Posted 09 October 2018 - 12:27 PM

To ND-fan:

 

One of the best posts I have seen on any board on any topic. I usually don't read the long posts verbatim because same old same old. You have bulls eyed so many aspects of the Twins and MLB in general and the summation is that the bean counters rule and true baseball people are a thing of the past. I argued on other boards that going over spreadsheets does not replace doing the leg work and the eye test is the ultimate test, not the obp+ analytic. There is a subjective aspect to a true winner (which is what counts) that can't be formulated into a spreadsheet formula and that includes the stupid WAR stat.

Ditto on use of many young pitchers, injuries, too much emphasis on the home run, on and on. Just sign good ball players(I was actually ridiculed for using that term), a GOOD MANAGER and play to win

 

(I assume ND stands for Notre Dame. They did a number on out local VA Tech team last Sat. If that lineman down field penalty hadn't been called early in the game on VT it might have been different but I doubt it.)


#27 nicksaviking

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Posted 09 October 2018 - 12:43 PM

 

Or, an average at best rotation isn’t as important as we’ve been led to believe, when coupled to a good and deep bullpen.

And if they were reckless and shortsighted, I hope Falvine suffer from the same affliction.

 

It certainly could be that I over-estimate the need for a strong rotation.

 

I still think that had the Twins done what the Brewers did last off season and won 96 games, that once October arrived many of us (or again, maybe just myself) would have still said great record, fun season, but how the hell is that Twins rotation supposed to get past Sale, Verlander, Kluber and Severino?


#28 nicksaviking

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Posted 09 October 2018 - 12:52 PM

 

I am surprised that people didn't think Yelich would have the year he had. Milwaukee seems like a band box, and last year I would have traded Kepler or Rosario for him. (had this discussion with a guy at work)

 

They went out an upgraded a position, Santana was decent in 2017 but wasn't before that.

 

Well Yelich was one of those hitters who seemed to resist the launch angle craze, he hit a ton of groundballs and a good percentage of line drives but his flyball percentage was low. He wasn't unlike Kepler. However, while Kepler actually did change his GB/FB ratios quite a bit in 2017, Yelich really did not, they're similar to last year. What looks different is that Yelich's hard hit percentage jumped 12% while Kepler's only jumped 3%. I'd guess whatever has caused that spike is where we'd find the improvement. I can't imagine that was ballpark related though.

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#29 KirbyDome89

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Posted 09 October 2018 - 12:52 PM

I think we're assuming this was what the Brewers envisioned. They no doubt saw adding Cain and Yelich as an upgrade but I doubt they knew they were getting the NL MVP. Yelich is a very good, young player on an extremely team friendly deal. Kudos to Milwaukee for taking advantage of Miami's perennial fire sale, but they certainly didn't luck into acquiring him, nor did they get him for a discount. They might have exceeded expectations but as has been mentioned above, the process was sound. They didn't find any pitching so they did the next best thing, and it worked out. 

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#30 Riverbrian

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Posted 09 October 2018 - 01:11 PM

 

OK. Tremendous moves! And made at the right time and place, in the right market.

Much like the AJ trade to the Giants to place Mauer at catcher and acquire Nathan, Bonser AND Liriano. These kinds of moves just don't happen ever day.

Boy do I wish the Twins could pull something like this! But is it reality? Or just smart and lucky opportunity?

Does this team need a couple smart FA signings and maybe one smart or lucky trade? Absolutely! But what it also needs is a couple guys to just be healthy and figure some stuff out! No trade will do that!

 

Can the Twins add a Cain and Yelich equivalent this off season. Maybe... Maybe Not? It doesn't matter... the Twins just need to move on from the old way and try to improve each roster spot. 

 

The old way was saying we got Trevor Plouffe at 3B and moving on to finding a bullpen guy cheaply. 

 

The old way this off season would be saying we got Rosario, Buxton and Kepler so there is need to trade for Yelich because the OF is set. Or saying Jake Cave did alright this year... He can be the 4th OF and then moving on to find a 2B. 

 

The Brewers had Braun, Broxton, Santana, Phillips plus... Thames, Perez and Villar who could also play OF. They didn't say... We got more than enough OF... They added Cain and Yelich and utilized the options available on Santana and Broxton. They gave Bruan a first base mitt to use in spring training. They improved when and where they got the chance and didn't let players become etched in stone at static positions to block the possibilities.  

 

We don't have to trade for an MVP type like Yelich... We just got to trade or sign someone who has ability and make it work. We can give Kepler a first base mitt to create space. We got the DH position to use. Buxton and Cave have options to stash in AAA for even more depth. 

 

The Brewers, Dodgers and Cubs have figured this out... the rest of the league has to catch up to them now. Gather your assets where you may. The new manager just needs to be able to figure out how to handle the "good problem to have". 

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#31 TheLeviathan

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Posted 09 October 2018 - 01:14 PM

I think it's also worth pointing out that the Oakland Athletics were a playoff team with almost the exact opposite philosophy.Ditto the Braves.  

 

More than one way to skin a cat.

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#32 nicksaviking

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Posted 09 October 2018 - 01:19 PM

 

I think it's also worth pointing out that the Oakland Athletics were a playoff team with almost the exact opposite philosophy.Ditto the Braves.  

 

More than one way to skin a cat.

 

I'm actually in favor of moving prospects for higher end talent this winter.

 

But we can probably all agree the Twins need to stop being the cat.

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#33 Riverbrian

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Posted 09 October 2018 - 01:20 PM

 

Trading both Span and Revere could have been these moves, but weren't (though I'd much rather have May now than Revere so...?)..Trading Hicks definitely wasn't.I thought signing Reed might have been a move like this, too.

 

I certainly want smarter, or at least luckier, trades and signings.

 

Getting something for Lance Lynn at least seems like a mini-steal right now.

 

The Hicks trade is a prime example of doing it wrong. Hicks was dealt from a supposed position of strength (OF) to fill a supposed position of weakness ©. Hicks was depth and insurance... he finally started to show us something in 2015. By removing Hicks off the roster... When Buxton struggled and Sano couldn't find fly balls... options to change your course was removed. Just like that a position of strength was a position of extreme weakness and we are on the waiver wire to find Robbie Grossman.  

 

If Terry Ryan would have thought like David Stearns... He wouldn't have had to trade Aaron Hicks. We could have walked into 2016 With Buxton and Hicks in the same OF along with Rosario and Sano. Sano could have been moved back to 3B quicker with Hicks as an option. We wouldn't have had to be as patient with a struggling Buxton. 

 

 

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#34 Riverbrian

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Posted 09 October 2018 - 01:23 PM

 

I like how aggressive the Brewers were and I like the example the set.

 

However, I still can't believe that rotation won them 96 games. I think they got lucky in that area and think putting a good but not elite offense around what appeared to be an average at best rotation was a bit reckless and shortsighted.

 

The starting rotation isn't as important as it once was. Starts are getting shorter and the bullpen is coming more and more into play so Stearns went out and put together a killer bullpen to cover an average but not terrible starting rotation.

 

As for defense... They ain't bad but it kind of shows that moving players around for better matchups and better bats can overcome average defense as long as they can make the routine plays. 

 

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#35 Riverbrian

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Posted 09 October 2018 - 01:25 PM

 

Ok, I get the formula. In a depressed market go get a solid outfielder at age 32 sign him to a 5 year contract and have him play 10 points better on OPS+ than his career average of 108 and better than any other year save one.

Take a 24 year old guy that just hit 30 homers and had a 126OPS+season and start him in the minors.

Trade 4 prospects for a solid outfielder coming off a 120 OPS+ season and have him play to a 1.000 OPS, a164 OPS+ and likely MVP. 

I really don't know why the Twins didn't sign Cain to a long term deal, start Rosario in AAA and give up Buxton, Kiriloff and Thorpe to get Yelich.

I'm not trying to take credit away from the Brewers but just temper it a little with snark because yeah, they had their share of luck. 

 

They were covered. It wasn't luck in my opinion.

 

If Cain blows up in their face... they still got Santana and Broxton in the minors. It was a no risk move. It's only money if he fails. 

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#36 nicksaviking

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Posted 09 October 2018 - 02:04 PM

 

The starting rotation isn't as important as it once was. Starts are getting shorter and the bullpen is coming more and more into play so Stearns went out and put together a killer bullpen to cover an average but not terrible starting rotation.

 

As for defense... They ain't bad but it kind of shows that moving players around for better matchups and better bats can overcome average defense as long as they can make the routine plays. 

 

Starers aren't always as important. Still, we found the same four teams in the (real) AL playoffs with the same stud aces as we did last year. I would have bet against the Brewers in any of those matchups.

 

And, yeah saying that I'm fairly confident they'll prove me wrong and win the WS making a mockery of which ever AL rotation ends up facing them.

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#37 USAFChief

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Posted 09 October 2018 - 02:19 PM

Starers aren't always as important. Still, we found the same four teams in the (real) AL playoffs with the same stud aces as we did last year. I would have bet against the Brewers in any of those matchups.

And, yeah saying that I'm fairly confident they'll prove me wrong and win the WS making a mockery of which ever AL rotation ends up facing them.

We would all love to have a dominant rotation, but those guys are hard to find. Not to mention, When I argued long and hard for a push to acquire Verlander 2 years ago, 90 percent of the board was against it.

But I see the point as, if you dont have a rotation of Verlanders, you needn't curl up in a ball and cry about it. Find more offense, build a bullpen that is better than your opponant.

Do something. Win other ways. Spend, trade, develop. Add talent...be on the other end of the Aaron Hicks trade, where you are acquiring the player with WAY more talent and upside. Take advantage when circumstance puts a Yelich (or a Verlander...or Realmuto) on the market.
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#38 Mike Sixel

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Posted 09 October 2018 - 02:25 PM

I think it's also worth pointing out that the Oakland Athletics were a playoff team with almost the exact opposite philosophy. Ditto the Braves.

More than one way to skin a cat.


Well. The twins also passed on going over the limits in international spending when you could..... Like the Atlanta team did.

The issue is that the twins were not great at their chosen strategy, just ok to good.
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I remain hopeful on Buxton and Sano.....but I'd not bet the franchise on them.


#39 Battle ur tail off

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Posted 09 October 2018 - 02:25 PM

At some point you have to try. Twins really never have. It's always a halfway effort, or a B or C level signing. Or trading away your B prosepcts for C players, etc. 

 

That and the fact they haven't developed hardly any players lately and have traded away all kinds of players that have had success elsewhere makes it very frustrating to be a fan of this team.

 

Just once, I'd like to see them go out and sign a true stud. The best player at their position. Or trade our best prospect or 2 for a real difference maker. 

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#40 nicksaviking

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Posted 09 October 2018 - 02:32 PM

 

We would all love to have a dominant rotation, but those guys are hard to find. Not to mention, When I argued long and hard for a push to acquire Verlander 2 years ago, 90 percent of the board was against it.

But I see the point as, if you dont have a rotation of Verlanders, you needn't curl up in a ball and cry about it. Find more offense, build a bullpen that is better than your opponant.

Do something. Win other ways. Spend, trade, develop. Add talent...be on the other end of the Aaron Hicks trade, where you are acquiring the player with WAY more talent and upside. Take advantage when circumstance puts a Yelich (or a Verlander...or Realmuto) on the market.

 

I guess what I was getting at is that had the Twins been the Brewers and swung a deal for Yelich last year, I would have been disappointed because I'd have preferred they'd used that equity to get deGrom or Syndergaard instead. They could stack up against Sale, Verlander, Kluber and Severino. I wasn't a fan of Yelich, he always seemed like an under-achiever and didn't have enough power for a corner bat. Clearly I was wrong there.

 

If my team doesn't have a competitive rotation I wouldn't curl up and cry, I'd demand my GM look harder. However, to prove the difficulty of that: I don't think anyone was against a trade deadline move for Verlander two years ago, 90% of the board just said it couldn't be done because he made it pretty clear that he wouldn't waive his no trade clause to come here considering the vastly superior and WS favorite Astros were barely able to convince him to go there.




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