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Article: An Offseason of Intrigue

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#41 Major League Ready

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Posted 09 October 2018 - 01:22 PM

 

Wow. No.

 

My entire point is to quit focusing on the outliers. Don't cherry pick samples either way. Don't pretend like baseball teams' front offices do, either.

 

Also, I'm not sure where you're getting your stats, but Rosario's career OPS is .784. League average for the last 80 years has never been that high. Similarly, Rosario's 2018 OPS is .803. League average for the last 10 years has been around .720.

 

Also, it so happens that Rosario has, beginning in 2017, dramatically improved his discipline. He went from a strikeout to walk ratio in the 7 range in 2016 down to 3 in 2017. He regressed a bit this year, to 3.5, and I don't personally see that as any reason to panic. His walk rate this year is above his career average, and at 26 years old, I don't know why anyone would assume it has peaked.

 

Finally, you think you'll find a team that will trade for him on the basis of his .950 first-half production, and not on his career numbers and trends? That's ridiculous, and I don't think it lines up with your claim to know how baseball front offices make their decisions.

 

Check back ... I used OPS for corner outfielders. What is obviously much more relevant than comparing to all position players.   His career OPS of .784 is 35 points below the average of .819 for corner outfielders.

 

A child failing the 6th grade would probably know better than to think a team would give value commensurate with a player able to sustain a .950 OPS. It was a tongue and cheek statement.

 

There is absolutely no denying Rosario takes horrible ABs. The numbers don't lie and he was almost the worst in all of baseball. Fanaticism is not a good foundation for logical or even rational thinking. The situation with Sano is the perfect example. When I tried to say it was not too much to ask for a professional athlete to stay in shape and there was obviously room for a6'4" 280lbs + man to lose some weight, there were people here who were absolutely incensed at my suggestion that he was out of shape. 

 

 

 


#42 Major League Ready

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Posted 09 October 2018 - 01:29 PM

 

You could be describing Kirby Puckett

 

He can swing at anything he likes when he proves he can do that and produce consistently at a much higher level than Rosario has with the exception of the 1st half of this season. Do you actually believe he can consistently produce a 900 OPS with the plate disciple he practiced the 2nd half of the season of is your response for show? Of course, you won't answer this question because we both know Rosario's only chance of having a .900+ OPS for an entire season is to develop and maintain good plate discipline but you responded the way you did despite this knowledge.


#43 Kelly Vance

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Posted 09 October 2018 - 03:38 PM

I don't let myself be glued to OPS as if it is the only stat. As Mark Twain said, "There are lies, damn lies, and statistics."

 

Thing is, Eddie makes things happen.

 

He is a catalyst kind of player. Every team needs one of these guys.  Eddie swings at bad pitches (et tu Mike Cuddy?) and so did Kirby, Oliva, etc. Its not the swinging at bad pitches I mind, its the "not hitting it" part that bothers.  

 

But Rosie throws guys out on defense, covers LF well, and starts rallies. On this team he is what passes for reliable on offense. Anyway, you don't kick his kind of player with 20 homer potential aside. 


#44 yarnivek1972

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Posted 09 October 2018 - 05:46 PM

You could be describing Kirby Puckett


From 1986 to 1995 Puckett’s worst OPS+ was 119. Coincidentally, that is Rosario’s best - last year. When Rosario can produce like that, he can swing at anything he wants.

#45 Kelly Vance

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Posted 10 October 2018 - 10:47 AM

 

He can swing at anything he likes when he proves he can do that and produce consistently at a much higher level than Rosario has with the exception of the 1st half of this season. Do you actually believe he can consistently produce a 900 OPS with the plate disciple he practiced the 2nd half of the season of is your response for show? Of course, you won't answer this question because we both know Rosario's only chance of having a .900+ OPS for an entire season is to develop and maintain good plate discipline but you responded the way you did despite this knowledge

 

OPS is not my big deal. It shows only what it shows. Sure, you want a guy with  high slugging percentage hitting 3-4-5. You want on base guys with high OBP batting 1-2, as table setters.

But you can have a high OPS and not matter in the box score.

 

RBIs matter more to me. Because it is more of a direct reflection of scoring.  Winning games is the only stat that I really care about.  Rosie wins games. On defense, with homers, etc.

 

You got down on him for losing plate discipline. I see a guy that is trying too hard to fill the gap. I don't get down on a good player for doing that. We make adjustments and move forward. We get it back in the front of his brain that in order to cream the pitch you have to hit the ball on the bat's sweet spot. That is easier to do when the ball is in the zone. Rosie is one of our best players and still young. Don't be so harsh. 

 

 


#46 Kelly Vance

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Posted 10 October 2018 - 10:51 AM

 

From 1986 to 1995 Puckett’s worst OPS+ was 119. Coincidentally, that is Rosario’s best - last year. When Rosario can produce like that, he can swing at anything

 

Remember, Puck was a hall of famer. But I was making a point. There are some guys who are low ball hitters, some are high ball hitters, some are high ball drinkers...... but I digress.

 

There are also bad ball hitters. They defy convention. I think Eddie is one of those. But sure, you gotta hit it if you are going to be allowed to swing at bad balls. And it is true, once the word gets out, that is likely all you are gonna see. So, I agree with you that, you better hit the damn pitch if you are going to chase a pitch outside the box. 

 

When I coach, I stress swinging at only strikes, and only good strikes early in the count.  Still, I occasionally get a bad ball hitter on my team. When one crushes a homer on a pitch up in his eyes, I don't make him run laps. I go get the ball and sign and date it for him to celebrate the homer. Then we talk about getting back to basics

Edited by Kelly Vance, 10 October 2018 - 11:01 AM.


#47 old nurse

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Posted 10 October 2018 - 11:39 AM

Eddie Rosario woba last 2 years .349 and .340 WRC+ 116 and 113. ISO is around .200 All of these stats are well above average for a corner outfielderBB% is in the 5% range where league average is in the 9% range OPS is never going to like Eddie Rosario.Statistic roulette, pick your favorite.


#48 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 10 October 2018 - 04:12 PM

Trade for:

SP Zack Wheeler & OF/DH Jay Bruce (Gonsalves, Kepler, Gordon, ?)

Sign:
SP Patrick Corbin (4/80)

IF Eduardo Escobar or Asdrúbal Cabrera (3/18 or 2/10)

CL Craig Kimbrel (3/45)
LHSU Zach Britton (2/20)

Net ~ + $70M or so.

C Castro/Carver
1B Austin
2B Escobar
SS Polanco
3B Sano
LF Rosario
CF Buxton
RF Bruce

UT Astubillo
OF Cave
UT ???
(DH rotating)

SP Wheeler
SP Corbin
SP Berrios
SP Gibson
SP Pineda/Odorrizi

CL Kimbrel
LHSU Britton
RHSU May
LHRP Rogers
2RP 2 of Drake/Hildenberger/Magill/Mejia/De Jong/?
mop up Odorizzi/Pineda

Bada book. Bada boom


What on earth is Bada book Bada boom?

#49 ashburyjohn

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Posted 10 October 2018 - 05:05 PM

What on earth is Bada book Bada boom?

An advertising takeoff on Bada Bing Bada Boom - i.e. quick clean and done.

A painter should not paint what he sees, but what will be seen.-- Paul Valery