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Article: An Offseason of Intrigue

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#21 Thrylos

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Posted 07 October 2018 - 12:03 PM

Trade for:

 

SP Zack Wheeler & OF/DH Jay Bruce(Gonsalves, Kepler, Gordon, ?)

 

Sign:

SP Patrick Corbin (4/80)

 

IF Eduardo Escobar or Asdrúbal Cabrera (3/18 or 2/10)

 

CL Craig Kimbrel (3/45)
LHSU Zach Britton (2/20)

 

Net ~ + $70M or so.

 

C Castro/Carver

1B Austin

2B Escobar

SS Polanco

3B Sano

LF Rosario

CF Buxton

RF Bruce

 

UT Astubillo
OF Cave

UT ???

(DH rotating)

 

SP Wheeler

SP Corbin

SP Berrios

SP Gibson

SP Pineda/Odorrizi

 

CL Kimbrel 
LHSU Britton 

RHSU May

LHRP Rogers

2RP 2 of Drake/Hildenberger/Magill/Mejia/De Jong/?

mop up Odorizzi/Pineda

 

Bada book. Bada boom

Edited by Thrylos, 07 October 2018 - 12:11 PM.

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#22 Riverbrian

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Posted 07 October 2018 - 12:22 PM

 

2019 success or failure can not hinge on Sano and Buxton.We all want Miguel Sano to be the next Miguel Cabrera but he could just be another Oswaldo Arcia or Yosmani Tomas.Byron Buxton may only be as good as Keon Broxton.Both Sano and Buxton should start the season in Rochester and should be told they will need to force their way to the MLB 25 man roster by becoming more disciplined at the plate.Take more walks and less Ks.Hit to all fields....

 

2019 needs to be about improved pitching and defense.In 2018, the Twins were 21st in team pitching and 20th in defense.Polanco is not the answer at SS.Lewis and Gordon are not ready yet.#1 move is to acquire FA SS Jose Iglesias and move Polanco to 2nd.Make Adrianza the regular 3rd baseman because he had the best advanced fielding stats of any 3rd baseman in all of baseball in 2018. This infield has the gloves needed to excel when utilizing the shifts that are now common.1B is a platoon position with Tyler Austin and FA acquisition #2 Matt Adams.Castro/Garver/Astudillo all make the 25 man roster.Astudillo can play 3rd or LF on occasion to get another RH bat in the lineup against LHP.

 

Rosario/Cave/Kepler can patrol the OF on a regular basis.Keep Grossman as the 4th OF and use him primarily against LHP(see splits).Might also give Tyler Austin some additional fielding practice at the corner OF spots to see if he can improve enough to be useful.Keeps hit bat in the lineup against LHP should Sano push his way back and take time at 1B.

 

Berrios/Gibson/Odorizzi are a nice start to a rotation.Not sure what we will get from Pineda.Several AAA guys are close to stepping up.FA add #3 is Charlie Morton who still has game at age 35 and will likely not break the bank or get anything long term.

 

Adding a bonafide closer is FA move #4.Jeurys Familia would make a nice anchor to a bullpen that will include Rogers and May as 7th/8th inning guys.The AAA starter that shows he is most ready in spring training gets a spot in the pen as long reliever/spot starter(Pineda may not be ready to go 5+).Reed will be back(contract) and probably not good.Other spots are open for the taking with many in-house candidates(mostly mediocre).Add a couple battle tested situational vets.

 

Good post

 

Well thought and I am inches from agreeing. Of course those inches mean slight adjustments.:)

 

Almost agree with you on Buxton and Sano. Make them earn their way back I am in total agreement. I wouldn't have a big problem with them starting in Rochester but I would probably give them a spot on the 25 man. Either way I'm OK as long as they are not named opening day starters as the team attempts to build around them. 

 

If you are going to name Adrianaza the 3B based on defense... I'd pencil him in at SS instead and then focus on a 3B with some Pop. That will limit you to one light hitter on that side of the diamond. 

 

Grossman... I don't hate him like others on this website. I think he contributes but I would truly rather see the Twins go get a OF with Defense and Pop and move on from Grossman. 

 

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#23 MNTWINSWINAGAIN

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Posted 07 October 2018 - 04:00 PM

Riverbrian I know Adrianza at 3b is unconventional. Traditionally you want more power and will accept a defender with less range at that position. I believe the new defensive trend toward shifting makes a 3b with SS range a much more valuable asset than ever. Adrianza will hit .250-.260 and steal a few bases. If he can take a few more walks his OBP will make him an offensive neutral player. His glove plays better than Escobar at third. I am not ready to spend for power at third just yet as I have not completely given up on Sano yet. I am not a big Robbie Grossman fan but I keep him for now because his .325 avg. as a RH hitter and his OBP are valuable. Grossman shows the younger hitters the value of staying patient and making the pitcher work. If Buxton figures it out at AAA, I have an easier time DFAing Grossman than any other Outfielder. I think this team hits 160-180 hrs. More power at 1b, less at 3b and about the same everywhere else. Probably scores a few more runs by striking out less and putting more balls in play. Better pitching and defense wins 5-10 more games in 2019. Probably not enough to make the playoffs. Much better if Sano and Buxton figure it out but I’m not holding my breath.

#24 old nurse

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Posted 07 October 2018 - 04:43 PM

Adrianza is the back up infielder. Any role greater than that is a failure by the front office.Escobar back as the super utility guy and Adrianza as your disaster backup in AAA is even better. With Grossman he is 29. Long ago he should have developed himself as a serviceable outfielder. . A .750 OPS is not a bad bat, but not as a bat first player.If he could hit like 2016 he would be an unusual but decent DH/emergency OF. Does the club offers him arbitration ? Doing that would mean they do not think they can find better or thinking about Kepler as a trade chip.


#25 Doctor Wu

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Posted 08 October 2018 - 06:29 AM

I'm not that comfortable with the idea of Austin at the starting first baseman. Even though it's looking like Mauer will not be back next year, I think the team may need to have a backup plan for 1B. Maybe a free agent signing?


#26 Number3

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Posted 08 October 2018 - 07:40 AM

Admittedly did not read every word of every post but I did not see one word about getting the right MANAGER. That is item number one. If they hire another "players manager", they could sign Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig, Bob Gibson and Sandy Koufax and it won't make any difference . The idea of the Twins getting either Harper or Machado is comedians' material and another long term contract with either could be another disaster. I hope the Yankees blow about $100mil (minimum) on Harper because I truly believe his best years are already behind him. Twins need to focus on starting pitching and hope that young talent can finally come through. The free agent position player route will not work.


#27 Major League Ready

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Posted 08 October 2018 - 07:43 AM

 

You don't trade guys like Eddie, you try to find other guys like him..

 

 

EE.... answer the phone

 

This is how Twins position players ranked by OPS for the 2nd half off the season (After 6/30)

 

Grossman ----- .852
Garver --------- .823
Cave ----------- .815
Polanco -------- .773
Kepler --------- .756
Mauer --------- .729
Forsythe ------ .648
Rosario------- .642

 

Rosario's plate disciple is not existent at times and teams adjusted how they pitch to him. I had a man crush on this guy ever since I watched him in the Arizona Fall Championship but I am tired of watching his horrible ABs. Will he develop the discipline necessary to be a top player? I don't know and I am not sure we would get a big return for him because Al teams have learned how to nullify him. 

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#28 Kelly Vance

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Posted 08 October 2018 - 11:18 AM

Its not as if OPS is the only stat that matters. Eddie slumped late, but he practically carried the team in the first half.  He seems to have improved every year and will have a big 2019.  


#29 Battle ur tail off

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Posted 08 October 2018 - 11:56 AM

 

We could trade Kepler or Rosario because that's a position of depth for us 

 

What depth is that of what you speak? Buxton? Kepler? Cave? So far none of them are better than average or below average outfield pieces. Rosario is the best hitter in this lineup and plays a good outfield. The outfielders you are counting as depth are either in the minors, or play at best at a replacement level. Aim higher for once, seriously. It would be one thing if Kiriloff was up here and producing, but the guy hasn't played about A ball. There is as good a chance he flops, than he is a major league starter capable of playing as good or better than Rosario.

 

Trading Rosario only happens for me if you get an ace pitcher back. That is it, he is untouchable in my eyes. Rosario + Gordon or something for Degrom? Maybe then, but that's about it. You know that won't happen. I would see the offer for him being some kind of BS prospect and a middling type ballplayer. Not worth it. Go for high end talent or go home.

 

Kepler, I just don't see him bringing back enough to make it worth trading him. He is worth more to us than anyone else. 

Edited by Battle ur tail off, 08 October 2018 - 11:57 AM.

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#30 Battle ur tail off

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Posted 08 October 2018 - 12:01 PM

 

This is how Twins position players ranked by OPS for the 2nd half off the season (After 6/30)

 

Grossman ----- .852
Garver --------- .823
Cave ----------- .815
Polanco -------- .773
Kepler --------- .756
Mauer --------- .729
Forsythe ------ .648
Rosario------- .642

 

Rosario's plate disciple is not existent at times and teams adjusted how they pitch to him. I had a man crush on this guy ever since I watched him in the Arizona Fall Championship but I am tired of watching his horrible ABs. Will he develop the discipline necessary to be a top player? I don't know and I am not sure we would get a big return for him because Al teams have learned how to nullify him. 

 

False, you are cherry picking to make him look bad. Look at his career numbers. Then realize he's got a cannon for an arm and plays his ass off every game. He's slugged around .500 the last few seasons. The guy has serious pop in his bat. 

 

I will give you the plate discipline, but here you have a corner outfielder with pop, plays pretty good defense and is in his prime. 

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#31 Major League Ready

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Posted 08 October 2018 - 03:21 PM

 

False, you are cherry picking to make him look bad. Look at his career numbers. Then realize he's got a cannon for an arm and plays his ass off every game. He's slugged around .500 the last few seasons. The guy has serious pop in his bat. 

 

I will give you the plate discipline, but here you have a corner outfielder with pop, plays pretty good defense and is in his prime. 

 

I have been a big Rosario fan but the facts are the facts. There is no disputing his 2nd half was very poor. The league adjusts to players that are productive. He did not adjust back. As a matter of fact he is among the very worst in the league at swinging a pitches outside the zone. 

 

The good news is that plate discipline can be developed. Can or will Rosario develop it. Your guess is as good as mine but at present, I seriously doubt his approach will net above average offensive numbers going forward. 


#32 yarnivek1972

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Posted 08 October 2018 - 03:27 PM

Trade for:

SP Zack Wheeler & OF/DH Jay Bruce (Gonsalves, Kepler, Gordon, ?)

Sign:
SP Patrick Corbin (4/80)

IF Eduardo Escobar or Asdrúbal Cabrera (3/18 or 2/10)

CL Craig Kimbrel (3/45)
LHSU Zach Britton (2/20)

Net ~ + $70M or so.

C Castro/Carver
1B Austin
2B Escobar
SS Polanco
3B Sano
LF Rosario
CF Buxton
RF Bruce

UT Astubillo
OF Cave
UT ???
(DH rotating)

SP Wheeler
SP Corbin
SP Berrios
SP Gibson
SP Pineda/Odorrizi

CL Kimbrel
LHSU Britton
RHSU May
LHRP Rogers
2RP 2 of Drake/Hildenberger/Magill/Mejia/De Jong/?
mop up Odorizzi/Pineda

Bada book. Bada boom



Might be the worst infield defense ever.

#33 jorgenswest

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Posted 08 October 2018 - 08:13 PM

This is how Twins position players ranked by OPS for the 2nd half off the season (After 6/30)
 
Grossman ----- .852
Garver --------- .823
Cave ----------- .815
Polanco -------- .773
Kepler --------- .756
Mauer --------- .729
Forsythe ------ .648
Rosario------- .642
 
Rosario's plate disciple is not existent at times and teams adjusted how they pitch to him. I had a man crush on this guy ever since I watched him in the Arizona Fall Championship but I am tired of watching his horrible ABs. Will he develop the discipline necessary to be a top player? I don't know and I am not sure we would get a big return for him because Al teams have learned how to nullify him.


Slash stats vary widely in partial season samples. I don’t think they have any meaning for the future and do not represent a trend.
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#34 70charger

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Posted 09 October 2018 - 02:14 AM

This is how Twins position players ranked by OPS for the 2nd half off the season (After 6/30)
 
Grossman ----- .852
Garver --------- .823
Cave ----------- .815
Polanco -------- .773
Kepler --------- .756
Mauer --------- .729
Forsythe ------ .648
Rosario------- .642
 
Rosario's plate disciple is not existent at times and teams adjusted how they pitch to him. I had a man crush on this guy ever since I watched him in the Arizona Fall Championship but I am tired of watching his horrible ABs. Will he develop the discipline necessary to be a top player? I don't know and I am not sure we would get a big return for him because Al teams have learned how to nullify him.


So, by this logic we should be getting rid of guys like Rosario and going out to find more guys like ...Grossman?

Yeah, I’m going with cherry picked sample.
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#35 h2oface

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Posted 09 October 2018 - 05:46 AM

This whole idea that shortstops and catchers shouldn't hit, or it is OK if they don't, is so lame. MLB players should all hit. To accept those that can't is why teams don't win pennants.

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#36 Major League Ready

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Posted 09 October 2018 - 08:57 AM

 

So, by this logic we should be getting rid of guys like Rosario and going out to find more guys like ...Grossman?

Yeah, I’m going with cherry picked sample.

 

You employ a different form of logic than I do or any MLB team for that matter. No team is going to make a retention decision based on a half-season performance measured by a single statistic for a player with over 2000 PA over 4 seasons. I simply pointed out that his 2nd half was a bad as his first half was good.

 

I would make personnel decisions based on a larger sample size but I would give some weight to the most recent data. Rosario’s career OPs is 35 point below the league average. His OPS this year was still below league average. Apparently your logic dictates that focusing on the bad outlier is cherry picking but focusing on the good outlier (1st) half should be the basis for personnel decisions.

I am not suggesting we should expect performance similar to either half year. However, is it logical to presume extremely poor plate discipline will not significantly reduce offensive production? Is it logical to believe Rosario will be able to perform at an elite level with horrible plate discipline? He ranked 271st for plate discipline out of 278 ML players with 300+ ABs. I think it’s logical to assume the league adjusted because Rosario was incredibly productive. The result was quite clear.

 

The logic I employ would suggest his manager and coaches sit down with Eddie and perhaps even his agent and discuss the need for Eddie to develop at least modest plate discipline because I believe it is logical to assume ML teams/pitchers are going to continue to throw pitches that are extremely difficult for anyone to hit as long as Eddie continues to swing at bad pitches. If the team believes he is incapable of adapting, it might be logical to assume the adjustments the league has made will result in performance much closer to his 2nd half numbers than his first half numbers. In that case, it might make sense to trade him if you can find a team that believes he is he will perform fairly close to the 950 OPS he put up in the first half and are willing to provide value commensurate with that kind of performance.

Edited by Major Leauge Ready, 09 October 2018 - 08:57 AM.


#37 Kelly Vance

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Posted 09 October 2018 - 09:51 AM

 

I have been a big Rosario fan but the facts are the facts. There is no disputing his 2nd half was very poor. The league adjusts to players that are productive. He did not adjust back. As a matter of fact he is among the very worst in the league at swinging a pitches outside the zone. 

 

The good news is that plate discipline can be developed. Can or will Rosario develop it. Your guess is as good as mine but at present, I seriously doubt his approach will net above average offensive numbers going forward. 

You could be describing Kirby Puckett


#38 70charger

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Posted 09 October 2018 - 11:05 AM

 

You employ a different form of logic than I do or any MLB team for that matter. No team is going to make a retention decision based on a half-season performance measured by a single statistic for a player with over 2000 PA over 4 seasons. I simply pointed out that his 2nd half was a bad as his first half was good.

 

I would make personnel decisions based on a larger sample size but I would give some weight to the most recent data. Rosario’s career OPs is 35 point below the league average. His OPS this year was still below league average. Apparently your logic dictates that focusing on the bad outlier is cherry picking but focusing on the good outlier (1st) half should be the basis for personnel decisions.

 

Wow. No.

 

My entire point is to quit focusing on the outliers. Don't cherry pick samples either way. Don't pretend like baseball teams' front offices do, either.

 

Also, I'm not sure where you're getting your stats, but Rosario's career OPS is .784. League average for the last 80 years has never been that high. Similarly, Rosario's 2018 OPS is .803. League average for the last 10 years has been around .720.

 

Also, it so happens that Rosario has, beginning in 2017, dramatically improved his discipline. He went from a strikeout to walk ratio in the 7 range in 2016 down to 3 in 2017. He regressed a bit this year, to 3.5, and I don't personally see that as any reason to panic. His walk rate this year is above his career average, and at 26 years old, I don't know why anyone would assume it has peaked.

 

Finally, you think you'll find a team that will trade for him on the basis of his .950 first-half production, and not on his career numbers and trends? That's ridiculous, and I don't think it lines up with your claim to know how baseball front offices make their decisions.

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#39 70charger

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Posted 09 October 2018 - 11:06 AM

Stats for reference:

 

MLB batting stats: https://www.baseball...s/MLB/bat.shtml

 

Rosario stats: https://www.baseball...red01-bat.shtml


#40 jkcarew

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Posted 09 October 2018 - 11:42 AM

Here's hoping that, at least for this off-season, the FO acts as if they consider the competition to NOT be the Cleveland Indians.The notion that you can get into the post-season, then "anything can happen" is a false narrative.The underdog will win even one playoff round rarely...and even then only when there is serious upside talent in the batting order and a dominant arm or two.If anyone thinks that Cleveland should be the yard-stick for 2019/2020, I'd challenge whether you've seen the Yankees, Astros, or Red Sox play...at any point during the year....let alone this past week.

 

The reality is that the Twins of the last couple of years (yes, even the 2017 version) are at or near the bottom of the other two AL divisions.There is a LONG way to go with this club.IMO, moves that represent starting over make more sense at this point than middling signings of tier-two free-agents...or trades that 'add major-league depth'.Either blow it up now, or make BIG moves to sign/acquire top talent/upside.