Jump to content

Providing independent coverage of the Minnesota Twins.
Subscribe to Twins Daily Email
Photo

Article: Twins Manager Paul Molitor Fired

paul molitor derek falvey thad levine jim pohlad
  • Please log in to reply
289 replies to this topic

#281 Linus

Linus

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 2,008 posts

Posted 05 October 2018 - 11:25 AM

Nobody comes up as a finished product.
Development has to continue at the mlb level.


Of course but basic fundamentals are what he was criticized for. I think there are plenty of problems within the organization and it’s a little too convenient to blame it all on Molitor

#282 Brock Beauchamp

Brock Beauchamp

    Owner

  • Administrators
  • 20,439 posts

Posted 05 October 2018 - 08:04 PM

It is debatable, unfortunately any attempts to quantify become loaded with assumptions. I think Passan had an article recently where a manager was quoted as saying they basically did nothing, but this is an opinion I have that doesn’t have data. Just a hunch with a lot of plausible speculation.

I think it’s more nuanced than “nothing”. I also think it’s so minute and unquantifiable that it’s uselsss to argue about it.

I don’t think it’s coincidence that Showalter always overperforms for a couple of years... and then unpeforms for a couple of years before getting the axe. Or that Gardenhire had a solid run of overperformance before collapsing. Or that Molitor has been up and down, as weird as that sounds to say.

Or that Maddon is almost *always* good.

How can we quantify that as outsiders? Um... yeah. We can’t.

So we should evaluate the themes, ideas, and styles of managers... and STFU about the rest because we’re talking out of our asses.

#283 TheLeviathan

TheLeviathan

    Twins News Team

  • Members
  • 15,577 posts

Posted 06 October 2018 - 12:03 AM

The problem is the lense. We always view through a narrow one because extrapolating manager trends is a far more difficult thing to do. It's hard to divorce talent from decision making. Hard to know what is driving things behind the scenes.

My opinion is the Gardy/Showalter pops have more to do with personality change. Like how an office picks up the slack cuz new management has arrived and you want to make a good first impression.

#284 jorgenswest

jorgenswest

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 3,886 posts

Posted 06 October 2018 - 07:45 AM

One way to try to measure the value of a manager has been to look at runs scored and try to see if they more more than an expected number of wins. Can a manager win more than their share of close games? I don’t think this measures has shown a significant impact.

It is very difficult to measure how many extra runs a coaching staff added or prevented due to the preparation of the players and the relationships they build towards getting the most out of a player. How would that be measured? The Twins front office needs to find that manager who is better than almost anyone else at preparing and getting the most out a player’s ability.

#285 DocBauer

DocBauer

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 4,549 posts

Posted 06 October 2018 - 02:43 PM

I guess I feel the job of a manager, and his coaches, is tough to quantify. I think they and their staff CAN help influence/teach a young player. I think they CAN create a lineup that works well together and balanced out. I think they CAN stress fundamentals and make sure the team plays better and doesn't beat themselves. And I think they CAN have a feel on the use and pulling of pitchers.

How much of an influence is what's so hard to measure. I actually think they have a stronger influence over LOSING games rather than winning them...if that makes sense.
  • 70charger likes this

"Nice catch Hayes...don't ever f*****g do it again."

 

--Lou Brown


#286 yarnivek1972

yarnivek1972

    Minnesota Twins

  • Members
  • 4,451 posts

Posted 06 October 2018 - 04:16 PM

One way to try to measure the value of a manager has been to look at runs scored and try to see if they more more than an expected number of wins. Can a manager win more than their share of close games? I don’t think this measures has shown a significant impact.

It is very difficult to measure how many extra runs a coaching staff added or prevented due to the preparation of the players and the relationships they build towards getting the most out of a player. How would that be measured? The Twins front office needs to find that manager who is better than almost anyone else at preparing and getting the most out a player’s ability.

I’d be curious to know how TK did in that regard. His teams always seemed to overacheive. Possible exceptions being 1992 and 1997.

I may have to look it up.

Edited by yarnivek1972, 06 October 2018 - 04:16 PM.


#287 yarnivek1972

yarnivek1972

    Minnesota Twins

  • Members
  • 4,451 posts

Posted 06 October 2018 - 04:33 PM

I looked up TKs pythag wins vs actual per baseball ref.

1987: 85 actual, 79 pythag
1988: 91, 90
1989: 80, 81
1990: 74, 74
1991: 95, 94
1992: 90, 91
1993: 71, 68
1994: 53, 49
1995: 56, 57
1996: 78, 79
1997: 68, 73
1998: 70, 73
1999: 63, 65
2000: 69, 69
2001: 85, 81

Gardy’s tenure

2002: 94, 86
2003: 90, 85
2004: 92, 87
2005: 83, 84
2006: 96, 93
2007: 79, 80
2008: 88, 89
2009: 87, 86
2010: 94, 92
2011: 63, 62
2012: 66, 68
2013: 66, 63
2014: 70, 75

Molitor’s tenure

2015: 83, 81
2016: 59, 66
2017: 85, 83
2018: 78, 77


If my math is correct, TK was + 5. Gardy was + 19.

Not sure if that proves anything. Tom Kelly won 16 playoff games that few expected him to.

Edited by yarnivek1972, 06 October 2018 - 04:50 PM.

  • The_Phantom likes this

#288 The_Phantom

The_Phantom

    Cedar Rapids

  • Members
  • 61 posts

Posted 06 October 2018 - 10:07 PM

 

I looked up TKs pythag wins vs actual per baseball ref.

1987: 85 actual, 79 pythag
1988: 91, 90
1989: 80, 81
1990: 74, 74
1991: 95, 94
1992: 90, 91
1993: 71, 68
1994: 53, 49
1995: 56, 57
1996: 78, 79
1997: 68, 73
1998: 70, 73
1999: 63, 65
2000: 69, 69
2001: 85, 81

Gardy’s tenure

2002: 94, 86
2003: 90, 85
2004: 92, 87
2005: 83, 84
2006: 96, 93
2007: 79, 80
2008: 88, 89
2009: 87, 86
2010: 94, 92
2011: 63, 62
2012: 66, 68
2013: 66, 63
2014: 70, 75

Molitor’s tenure

2015: 83, 81
2016: 59, 66
2017: 85, 83
2018: 78, 77


If my math is correct, TK was + 5. Gardy was + 19.

Not sure if that proves anything. Tom Kelly won 16 playoff games that few expected him to.

 

 

Hey good work on that research. I don't think those numbers are terribly important though. Straight up "record in close games" is probably a better tool, but really even that is not perfect. When you massively overtax your bullpen and always take your starter out at 100 pitches no matter what, even when the pen is taxed... and so your pen gives up 6 runs. That ruins "close games" AND it affects the pyth. W/L calculation.

 

Pyth is pretty much just if you are scoring more runs than your opponent overall. 

 

It's an interesting thought. Because a W/L better than your Pyth could very well mean that you are winning all your close games and only losing when you get blown out. But that's one of those things that in practice probably just isn't as clean cut as that.  


#289 The_Phantom

The_Phantom

    Cedar Rapids

  • Members
  • 61 posts

Posted 06 October 2018 - 10:08 PM

Hawk Harrelson is saying Molitor is a great baseball guy so Levine and Falvey are idiots for firing him. And "if they were so smart they'd be on wall street".

 

As far as I'm concerned, if there was any doubt whether that was the right move (there wasn't any) Harrelson getting up in arms about it is the final seal of approval that it was right. That guy's baseball knowledge is a vortex of nothingness. 

  • Twins33, 70charger, big dog and 1 other like this

#290 Doomtints

Doomtints

    Minnesota Twins

  • Members
  • 2,897 posts

Posted 07 October 2018 - 10:40 AM

 

Hawk Harrelson is saying Molitor is a great baseball guy so Levine and Falvey are idiots for firing him. And "if they were so smart they'd be on wall street".

 

Why? There is more profit in baseball. :)

Edited by Doomtints, 07 October 2018 - 10:40 AM.




Also tagged with one or more of these keywords: paul molitor, derek falvey, thad levine, jim pohlad