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Article: First-Round Flops or Unfinished Projects?

kohl stewart tyler jay
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#41 Doomtints

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Posted 26 September 2018 - 09:12 AM

Good article.

 

For a team that kept promising rebuilds through the draft, they sure do whiff a lot at drafting, don't they?

 

I don't like calling draft picks "busts" or "flops" because so few draft picks in baseball ever work out anyway. This is just part of the business.

 

And anyway, the Twins don't seem great at developing players. It's hard to blame the draft picks alone if they are being taught bad habits.

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#42 Mike Sixel

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Posted 26 September 2018 - 09:37 AM

If your strategy is to mostly build thru the draft, and not spend big on FAs or trade minor league stars for veterans.....you MUST be better than other teams are, or you are destined for mediocrity. So being "just like other teams" isn't good enough for this kind of team. It just isn't. 

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I remain hopeful on Buxton and Sano.....but I'd not bet the franchise on them.


#43 Monkeypaws

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Posted 26 September 2018 - 05:32 PM

 

If your strategy is to mostly build thru the draft, and not spend big on FAs or trade minor league stars for veterans.....you MUST be better than other teams are, or you are destined for mediocrity. So being "just like other teams" isn't good enough for this kind of team. It just isn't. 

The Twins seem to be caught between two worlds in that spectrum. However, the new regime seems to have done better than average in the draft. Hoping they continue to put their energies that way.


#44 mlhouse

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Posted 26 September 2018 - 06:39 PM

 

The draft results are certainly underwhelming but i'm curious as to how that ranks with other organizations.Are there rankings available based upon objective data as compared to some guy's subjective views? I'd be curious as to what we should expect and how far off of the norm the Twins have been. I suspect it's a long way, but I would be interested to know how far off the norm we are.

 

 

Two points in response:

 

1. The team has been terrible so we have been drafting at or near the top of the draft, each round, for most of those years.

 

2. The team has been terrible so we should have been seeing a lot of drafted players moving up quickly to the big leagues. Our drafts have hardly made a dent at the big league level.

 

That is very concerning. I guess the new FO gets some benefit of the doubt until their draft picks make it to the big leagues, but you have to ask yourself if they are going to continue the conservative approach to bringing up minor league players, how long are we willing to wait while watching the mediocre at best players they put ont he field now???


#45 gunnarthor

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Posted 26 September 2018 - 09:27 PM

 

Two points in response:

 

1. The team has been terrible so we have been drafting at or near the top of the draft, each round, for most of those years.

 

2. The team has been terrible so we should have been seeing a lot of drafted players moving up quickly to the big leagues. Our drafts have hardly made a dent at the big league level.

 

That is very concerning. I guess the new FO gets some benefit of the doubt until their draft picks make it to the big leagues, but you have to ask yourself if they are going to continue the conservative approach to bringing up minor league players, how long are we willing to wait while watching the mediocre at best players they put ont he field now???

I think there's a lot of stuff to complain about the FO but I'm not sure we should say they are conservative in rushing minor league players. Frankly, that's been a false narrative since Steil took over. The Twins have pushed a lot of young guys up the system.

 

I think the development guys are doing a pretty decent job, frankly. It's the ML side that needs to be fixed.

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#46 USAFChief

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Posted 27 September 2018 - 05:27 AM

Two points in response:

1. The team has been terrible so we have been drafting at or near the top of the draft, each round, for most of those years.

2. The team has been terrible so we should have been seeing a lot of drafted players moving up quickly to the big leagues. Our drafts have hardly made a dent at the big league level.

That is very concerning. I guess the new FO gets some benefit of the doubt until their draft picks make it to the big leagues, but you have to ask yourself if they are going to continue the conservative approach to bringing up minor league players, how long are we willing to wait while watching the mediocre at best players they put ont he field now???


The problem isnt moving players to the majors too slowly. If anything, strong arguments can be made the Twins have consistently moved players to the majors before they were ready and/or before they earned a chance.

The problem is they haven't drafted and/or developed enough quality MLB players in the first place.
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Cutting my carbs...with a pizza slicer.


#47 ashburyjohn

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Posted 27 September 2018 - 03:18 PM

The problem isnt moving players to the majors too slowly. If anything, strong arguments can be made the Twins have consistently moved players to the majors before they were ready and/or before they earned a chance.

The problem is they haven't drafted and/or developed enough quality MLB players in the first place.

Concur, and I'll state it slightly differently: the problem isn't moving players to the majors too slowly, it's developing players too slowly.

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A painter should not paint what he sees, but what will be seen.-- Paul Valery


#48 d-mac

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Posted 27 September 2018 - 06:11 PM

You mean drafting relievers with the hope to turn them in to starters didn't work out? No way! Nobody could have ever guessed! sarcastically-surprised-kirk.jpg

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4-27-2016: El dia de La Maquina


#49 ashburyjohn

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Posted 27 September 2018 - 06:20 PM

You mean drafting relievers with the hope to turn them in to starters didn't work out? No way! Nobody could have ever guessed! sarcastically-surprised-kirk.jpg

The awesome Lou Scheimer / Hal Sutherland / Norm Prescott* screen capture alone would have earned you a Like.

 

* Complete with anatomically improbable Filmation goodness

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#50 d-mac

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Posted 27 September 2018 - 06:26 PM

 

I don't know if Stewart is better described as an enigma or Kelly and Hyde. Quality ERA, high ground ball %, extremely low HR totals, reports of low 90's velocity consistently and a slider that had real potential and overall success in his milb career, and even a bit of a surge in SO to begin this season. But the lack of control and lack of SO is both alarming and confusing.
 

Stewart is the second coming of Nick Blackburn. Only with better fastball.

4-27-2016: El dia de La Maquina


#51 ashburyjohn

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Posted 27 September 2018 - 06:29 PM

Stewart is the second coming of Nick Blackburn. Only with better fastball.

Nick Blackburn would have done better with a better fastball, too.

 

Not sure what it means to be essentially the same, when the coin of the realm remains the fastball.

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#52 Monkeypaws

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Posted 27 September 2018 - 07:03 PM

Anyone who says Jay was a mistake from head to toe in hindsight has a short memory.

 

He was an expected pick:

 

 

Congratulations are in order to Baseball America, Sports Illustrated, and Jim Callis of MLB.com, all of whom had Tyler Jay going to Minnesota in their most recent mock drafts.

 

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#53 Han Joelo

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Posted 27 September 2018 - 08:57 PM

To piggy back on the last comment:  not that "David Rawnsley" has gone on to a renowned career writing about MLB, but he managed to name about 50 players in this S.I. article  about the 2015 draft, and while he showed excitement about Jay, and lots and lots of other players, I don't believe there was nary a mention of Benintendi.

 

Having said that,   I agree with those that say the Twins can't afford to whiff on these picks if they want to compete.  They did, they do.


#54 mlhouse

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Posted 27 September 2018 - 11:03 PM

 

I think there's a lot of stuff to complain about the FO but I'm not sure we should say they are conservative in rushing minor league players. Frankly, that's been a false narrative since Steil took over. The Twins have pushed a lot of young guys up the system.

 

I think the development guys are doing a pretty decent job, frankly. It's the ML side that needs to be fixed.

 

 

Totally disagree and he facts indicate otherwise.The Twins are VERY conservative in moving their players through the system.Look at a guy like Mitch Garver.He did not get to the major leagues full time until he was 27, TWENTY SEVEN, and he still doesn't even have 500 career plate appearances.Garver, despite significant minor league success (he was Twins Daily minor league hitter of the year), moved step by step through the system. This was despite his success and the fact that the Twins catching sucked while they were losing 100 games. 

 

Addressing something someone raised below,if we wait until a conservative front office decides a player is ready we are going to wait until forever, all while we lose with guys that have no future.The fact is, a minor league player is never ready, and Twins minor league players despite the conservative approach reach the majors remarkably ill prepare and often lacking basic skills.  

 

When you are rebuilding you have to acknowledge that the players you bring up aren't going to be ready.They are going to make mistakes and you are going to lose ball games.But, the approach -needs to be a commitment to rebuilding.I advocate bringing up just about every prospet next season:Lewis, Kirilloff, Rooker, Gordon amongst others.Work them in with the existing young talent.We might lose 100 games like the Twins did in 1982, but the guys who can play will be sorted out and the guys who cannot moved on from.The sooner we get THOSE QUESTIONS asked, the sooner we can get a real competitive team out there.

 

And, for those who disagree, how can anyone stand watching this front office bring up Taylor Motter and BObby Wilson, amonsgst other crappy players?If we are going to lose 87-90 games why lose them with these players without futures?  


#55 The Wise One

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Posted 28 September 2018 - 12:27 AM

 

Totally disagree and he facts indicate otherwise.The Twins are VERY conservative in moving their players through the system.Look at a guy like Mitch Garver.He did not get to the major leagues full time until he was 27, TWENTY SEVEN, and he still doesn't even have 500 career plate appearances.Garver, despite significant minor league success (he was Twins Daily minor league hitter of the year), moved step by step through the system. This was despite his success and the fact that the Twins catching sucked while they were losing 100 games. 

 

Addressing something someone raised below,if we wait until a conservative front office decides a player is ready we are going to wait until forever, all while we lose with guys that have no future.The fact is, a minor league player is never ready, and Twins minor league players despite the conservative approach reach the majors remarkably ill prepare and often lacking basic skills.  

 

When you are rebuilding you have to acknowledge that the players you bring up aren't going to be ready.They are going to make mistakes and you are going to lose ball games.But, the approach -needs to be a commitment to rebuilding.I advocate bringing up just about every prospet next season:Lewis, Kirilloff, Rooker, Gordon amongst others.Work them in with the existing young talent.We might lose 100 games like the Twins did in 1982, but the guys who can play will be sorted out and the guys who cannot moved on from.The sooner we get THOSE QUESTIONS asked, the sooner we can get a real competitive team out there.

 

And, for those who disagree, how can anyone stand watching this front office bring up Taylor Motter and BObby Wilson, amonsgst other crappy players?If we are going to lose 87-90 games why lose them with these players without futures?  

One player on the current roster that you can say was not pushed.The rest were not held back.None were pushed as fast as Trout, Machadoor Harper, but you wouldn't callany of the players their level of OF/IF. 

Motter had a better record in AAA than Gordon had. I am not sure there was another IF in the system that one would have called up that has prospect status

Edited by The Wise One, 28 September 2018 - 12:33 AM.


#56 The Wise One

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Posted 28 September 2018 - 12:46 AM

Speaking of Gordon, although the thread seems to be bash the drafting of Stewart or Jay the real bashing should be the pick of Gordon. Nola, Turner, Freeland, Chapman and maybe even Conforto would have been way better picks.That is a lot of players to have guessed wrong on.Kohl Stewart at this point has Tim Anderson and some guy named Judge looking like great players. A lot of teams passed on those two. Benintendi makes the Jay pick look bad. https://www.mlb.com/...ndi/c-128283976 would show that the Twins were more unlucky than unwise.


#57 gunnarthor

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Posted 28 September 2018 - 12:05 PM

 

Totally disagree and he facts indicate otherwise.The Twins are VERY conservative in moving their players through the system.Look at a guy like Mitch Garver.He did not get to the major leagues full time until he was 27, TWENTY SEVEN, and he still doesn't even have 500 career plate appearances.Garver, despite significant minor league success (he was Twins Daily minor league hitter of the year), moved step by step through the system. This was despite his success and the fact that the Twins catching sucked while they were losing 100 games. 

 

Addressing something someone raised below,if we wait until a conservative front office decides a player is ready we are going to wait until forever, all while we lose with guys that have no future.The fact is, a minor league player is never ready, and Twins minor league players despite the conservative approach reach the majors remarkably ill prepare and often lacking basic skills.  

 

When you are rebuilding you have to acknowledge that the players you bring up aren't going to be ready.They are going to make mistakes and you are going to lose ball games.But, the approach -needs to be a commitment to rebuilding.I advocate bringing up just about every prospet next season:Lewis, Kirilloff, Rooker, Gordon amongst others.Work them in with the existing young talent.We might lose 100 games like the Twins did in 1982, but the guys who can play will be sorted out and the guys who cannot moved on from.The sooner we get THOSE QUESTIONS asked, the sooner we can get a real competitive team out there.

 

And, for those who disagree, how can anyone stand watching this front office bring up Taylor Motter and BObby Wilson, amonsgst other crappy players?If we are going to lose 87-90 games why lose them with these players without futures?  

I'm not overly concerned about Garver. Look at the promotions of the guys in the minors since Steil took over. They are pushed. Just a few of the ages of guys when the made the majors since 2012.

 

21 - Buxton

22 - Sano, Polanco, Berrios, 

23 - Rosario, Kepler, Hicks, Littel, Gonsalves, Stewart, Romero

 

Sure, they haven't pushed everyone as hard - Gordon for example - and injuries affected others (Jay and Burdi) but generally, the development team has pushed the guys. Kiriloff misses a year and immediately starts a level above where he left off and gets a mid-season promotion. Most of our best prospects get mid-season promotions and/or start at higher levels than others. Lewis, for example, is at higher level already than Greene and Gore and the same level as college pick McCay.

 

Sano has already been an all-star and Buxton has already put down a 5 WAR season with MVP votes. Berrios and Rosario have played at or near all-star levels. I think the development team is doing fine. There is something wrong at the ML level that needs to get fixed to address why Kepler has plateaued and Sano regressed etc. 

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#58 nicksaviking

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Posted 28 September 2018 - 12:18 PM

 

Anyone who says Jay was a mistake from head to toe in hindsight has a short memory.

 

He was an expected pick:

 

Congratulations are in order to Baseball America, Sports Illustrated, and Jim Callis of MLB.com, all of whom had Tyler Jay going to Minnesota in their most recent mock drafts.

 

Expected doesn't mean correct. Those publications expected Jay to go to the Twins because they'd been talking to him a lot and they'd had a history of taking relief pitchers way too early.

 

Most of us expect Eddie Rosario to throw the ball ten feet over the cut-off man's head too.

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#59 gunnarthor

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Posted 28 September 2018 - 12:48 PM

 

Expected doesn't mean correct. Those publications expected Jay to go to the Twins because they'd been talking to him a lot and they'd had a history of taking relief pitchers way too early.

 

Most of us expect Eddie Rosario to throw the ball ten feet over the cut-off man's head too.

No, the Twins were relatively dark horses on Jay and most (except Callis) had him getting picked by the White Sox, who would turn him into Chris Sale 2.0. The Twins were linked to a lot of players, including Daz Cameron (who I wanted), Tyler Stephenson (who nobody wanted) and a few of the HS pitchers. Jay was mostly surprising, especially in the lead up to the draft.

 

And when the drafted him, they drafted him as a starter. It wasn't a relief pitcher strategy. In fact, the 2015 draft was mostly a position player draft - although they did take a college reliever in the 5th round.

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#60 mlhouse

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Posted 29 September 2018 - 02:04 PM

 

I'm not overly concerned about Garver. Look at the promotions of the guys in the minors since Steil took over. They are pushed. Just a few of the ages of guys when the made the majors since 2012.

 

21 - Buxton

22 - Sano, Polanco, Berrios, 

23 - Rosario, Kepler, Hicks, Littel, Gonsalves, Stewart, Romero

 

Sure, they haven't pushed everyone as hard - Gordon for example - and injuries affected others (Jay and Burdi) but generally, the development team has pushed the guys. Kiriloff misses a year and immediately starts a level above where he left off and gets a mid-season promotion. Most of our best prospects get mid-season promotions and/or start at higher levels than others. Lewis, for example, is at higher level already than Greene and Gore and the same level as college pick McCay.

 

Sano has already been an all-star and Buxton has already put down a 5 WAR season with MVP votes. Berrios and Rosario have played at or near all-star levels. I think the development team is doing fine. There is something wrong at the ML level that needs to get fixed to address why Kepler has plateaued and Sano regressed etc. 

 

First, the ages you refer are when they got late season call ups or quick looks. So it is a bit misleading.

 

Second, compare how our prospects were moved through versus players on the Yankees or Red Sox:Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, Gleyber Torres, Miguel Andujar, Luis Severino, Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi, Rafeal Devers, Xander Bogaerts, 

 

Even if you want to claim that "see the Twins moved their players up at the same pace", which I disagree with, there is a singular difference. The Red Sox and Yankees are competitive teams.The Red Sox are going to win 107 or so games with a lineup that is essentially younger than the Twins. We are a rebuilding team, yet we promote our prospects at the same level of contenders.That is just plain stupid and we wonder why this organization is in such a mess.




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