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Article: Twins Daily Roundtable: Biggest Off-Season Need

bryon buxton miguel sano jose berrios max kepler jorge polanco
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#61 nicksaviking

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Posted 20 September 2018 - 08:20 AM

Perhaps I could use a history lesson, but wasn't Greinke pushing for a trade out of KC and then wasn't thrilled when it turned out to be Milwaukee? After spending the better part of the last decade in LA and Pheonix I might suspect that mid-western teams make up quite a bit of his no-trade list.

 

But if that's all a load of baloney, cool, I'll take him and his salary, even at that age. They won't be able to spend that money anywhere else.

 

I still want to spend good money on relievers though, and not the kind that have to wait three months to sign and become "bargains" because the other clubs are all weary. They seem to like to sign in groups lately to form a nice back end block, so go get two of Familia, Herrera, Allen, Kimbrel, Britton, Miller, Robertson or Soria. Then get an Adam Warren, David Phelps or Bud Norris for good measure.

 

 

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#62 TheLeviathan

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Posted 20 September 2018 - 08:24 AM

 

The Diamondbacks top 4 position players in bWAR right now are controlled for 2019 (and all but Goldschmidt for 2020 or beyond too). On the pitching side, Corbin would be a definite loss, but they've built a pretty deep staff with Greinke too -- they are right next to the Cubs for the top team ERA+ in the NL. I'd be pretty surprised if they went full rebuild right now.

 

That is not what is being hinted at in Arizona.They have a barren farm, a loaded division, and a number of guys with pretty decent trade value right now.It's absolutely being discussed.Whether it happens or not is anyone's guess.

 

If they decide not to rebuild and hope to resign guys, it likely frees up Grienke as a salary dump.If they rebuild, he gets moved that way too.I'm guessing he gets dealt sometime this offseason as a way to retain Corbin/Goldschmidt/Pollack.

Edited by TheLeviathan, 20 September 2018 - 08:25 AM.


#63 Mike Sixel

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Posted 20 September 2018 - 08:38 AM

 

Perhaps I could use a history lesson, but wasn't Greinke pushing for a trade out of KC and then wasn't thrilled when it turned out to be Milwaukee? After spending the better part of the last decade in LA and Pheonix I might suspect that mid-western teams make up quite a bit of his no-trade list.

 

But if that's all a load of baloney, cool, I'll take him and his salary, even at that age. They won't be able to spend that money anywhere else.

 

I still want to spend good money on relievers though, and not the kind that have to wait three months to sign and become "bargains" because the other clubs are all weary. They seem to like to sign in groups lately to form a nice back end block, so go get two of Familia, Herrera, Allen, Kimbrel, Britton, Miller, Robertson or Soria. Then get an Adam Warren, David Phelps or Bud Norris for good measure.

 

I too hope we don't hear again next year about what great bargains, and low risk guys, they signed, and how smart it is not to actually improve your team for more than 1 year at a time......

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It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 


#64 jtkoupal

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Posted 20 September 2018 - 08:55 AM

Relief Pitchers. Relief Pitchers. And some more Relief Pitchers, please!

 

Also, another solid starter (1-3 starter) would allow Odorizzi and Pineda to occupy 4-5, which is probably ideal.

 

Some infield insurance is definitely a necessity too. Sanó is not a certainty to return to his All-Star form. Nick Gordon has struggled in AAA. Tyler Austin is a platoon player and Joe Mauer might retire. There only one realistic middle-infield option to start 2019 at the moment, something that will almost certainly be addressed. Certainly, you don't want Eihre Adrianza starting almost every day.

 

A lot needs to be done. There will be money to spend, but there are a lot of holes to fill. 

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#65 Hosken Bombo Disco

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Posted 20 September 2018 - 08:56 AM

His offensive numbers are better, granted with considerably fewer at bats. Defensively, where is the change? He was one of the worst shortstops in the league last year and is again this year.

I thought he looked passable last season, and at times pretty good, but if the numbers say he was near at the bottom I won't disagree with that.
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#66 spycake

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Posted 20 September 2018 - 09:23 AM

That is not what is being hinted at in Arizona. They have a barren farm, a loaded division, and a number of guys with pretty decent trade value right now. It's absolutely being discussed. Whether it happens or not is anyone's guess.

If they decide not to rebuild and hope to resign guys, it likely frees up Grienke as a salary dump. If they rebuild, he gets moved that way too. I'm guessing he gets dealt sometime this offseason as a way to retain Corbin/Goldschmidt/Pollack.


I think fans / talk radio are quick to discuss extremes like a rebuild in reaction to factors like a poor farm system and falling short of the playoffs, but in practice most teams don't pursue those paths without stronger conditions (like the MLB roster falling apart too). Fans / talk radio seem to underrate the "middle ground" of having a decent MLB roster and being in the contention mix. Their division isn't that loaded -- there is LA, but COL and SF are flawed and SD is still rebuilding. And MIL and STL aren't that scary as wild card competitors either.

I could perhaps see them re-signing Corbin, and turning around and offloading Greinke to balance the books. But that's a tricky balancing act -- Corbin might be getting an inflated contract based on this career year, and once they have a deal with Corbin, they will lose a lot of leverage in moving Greinke. And the no-trade clause could really mess with their leverage further -- 15 teams (perhaps including the Twins) might be off the table right away. If they can get nothing back but salary relief for Greinke, or even have to eat some cash, it may not be the best course of action anymore -- letting Corbin walk and keeping Greinke might be better both for their farm system (comp picks for Corbin) and for their long-term financial outlook (Greinke's remaining deal may be shorter than what Corbin gets, and maybe even cheaper in total dollars).

I know people have been talking about moving Greinke, but a more realistic target for that kind of salary dump move would proably be a Mike Leake circa 2017 or AJ Burnett circa 2011 type. If I get a moment, I'll look around for some candidates.
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#67 spycake

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Posted 20 September 2018 - 09:37 AM

Perhaps I could use a history lesson, but wasn't Greinke pushing for a trade out of KC and then wasn't thrilled when it turned out to be Milwaukee? After spending the better part of the last decade in LA and Pheonix I might suspect that mid-western teams make up quite a bit of his no-trade list.


That's my suspicion too, although it doesn't particularly matter how Greinke felt about his time in KC and MIL. His current salary is high enough that it acts as a de facto no trade clause for a lot of teams near the luxury tax threshold. For example, per this list at Cot's, roughly 12 teams had less "tax space" in 2018 than Greinke's current annual salary:



Not sure how that list will look for 2018, or when/how Greinke's list of 15 teams is set, but it's possible that his no-trade blocks every non-warm-weather team that could take on his salary without too much trouble (like the Twins).

The only thing I have read about the clause is that apparently Texas was not included on it last winter, which would conform with this theory (Texas is warm weather and not too close to the luxury tax threshold).

#68 spycake

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Posted 20 September 2018 - 09:44 AM

Looking for more details on his no-trade, I found this article from 2 years ago: "Diamondbacks Must Admit Defeat This Offseason By Trading Zack Greinke"

https://www.forbes.c...e-zack-greinke/

I feel like trading Greinke might be one of those evergreen topics of discussion, regardless of likelihood. :)
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#69 Mike Sixel

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Posted 20 September 2018 - 11:33 AM

I'll post this here.....

 

Gus Johnson
1:31 Aside from Kershaw (who will probably resign with the Dodgers?), Patrick Corbin looks like the only high-impact FA pitcher. Would you give him a Yu Darvish-type contract (6 yr/126M)?

 

Keith Law
1:31 I would. I agree on Kershaw, and that Corbin is the best 'real' FA pitcher on the market.

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It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 


#70 Battle ur tail off

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Posted 20 September 2018 - 12:36 PM

You can't do a full teardown, there is nothing left to tear down. 

 

You have to go into next season with the expectation that Sano and Buxton will lead this team. There is really no other way to go about it. If they don't, then figure another 4-5 years to be relevant again. 

 

I'd do whatever it takes to get one of the Mets stud starters. I'd trade any prospect they have other than the SS and the lefthanded outfielder. Twins have a history of ruining kids anyway, what good are they to us? Get a real #1 in here, sign Cruz and pickup the 2 best relievers in free agency. Bam - division title. 

 

 

Edited by Battle ur tail off, 20 September 2018 - 12:37 PM.

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#71 Craig Arko

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Posted 20 September 2018 - 01:13 PM

As much as it pains me to say this, probably a new manager. I also think this could prolong the rebuild another year.

Update your priors.


#72 TheLeviathan

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Posted 20 September 2018 - 01:19 PM

 

I think fans / talk radio are quick to discuss extremes like a rebuild in reaction to factors like a poor farm system and falling short of the playoffs, but in practice most teams don't pursue those paths without stronger conditions (like the MLB roster falling apart too). Fans / talk radio seem to underrate the "middle ground" of having a decent MLB roster and being in the contention mix. Their division isn't that loaded -- there is LA, but COL and SF are flawed and SD is still rebuilding. And MIL and STL aren't that scary as wild card competitors either.

 

Your spin is as optimistic as possible.I'd look at a team that got a lot of career pitching years and a few Nick Ahmed/David Peralta spikes and say things went about as well as humanly possible and they still choked away a playoff spot to a league you say isn't that scary.  

 

There is no immediate help on the way, no budget room, and a near certainty that htey lose either Grienke or Corbin.Not to mention Pollack or other notable parts.  

 

I agree, talk radio and fans can often be too black and white, but their basis for doing so in this case seems to have some sound footing.We're all speculating, so I could absolutely turn out to be wrong and Grienke is unavailable, but it's the first phone I'd pick up and try.

Edited by TheLeviathan, 20 September 2018 - 01:19 PM.


#73 nicksaviking

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Posted 20 September 2018 - 03:46 PM

 

As much as it pains me to say this, probably a new manager. I also think this could prolong the rebuild another year.

 

I actually like the momentum shift that so often accompanies a new manager. It seems to me "surprise" teams commonly have new managers. I'm not even necessarily saying it's the old manger's fault or the new manager's doing, it's just that all-to-often something intangible seems to take place unexpectedly and in a positive direction. It happened with Molitor's first year on the job in fact.

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#74 yarnivek1972

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Posted 20 September 2018 - 03:54 PM

I actually like the momentum shift that so often accompanies a new manager. It seems to me "surprise" teams commonly have new managers. I'm not even necessarily saying it's the old manger's fault or the new manager's doing, it's just that all-to-often something intangible seems to take place unexpectedly and in a positive direction. It happened with Molitor's first year on the job in fact.


And Tom Kelly’s...
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#75 Physics Guy

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Posted 20 September 2018 - 07:43 PM

 

Yep just like a trip to Aldi, "aww just toss it in the cart"

I don't disagree that it's picking up quite a bunch, but they have less than 50M in salary even with likely arbitration signings.They could legitimately come close to affording that list.I personally would prioritize it as Donaldson, Iglesias, Herera, SP and lastly Pollock.I really like Pollock since he's a RH and can play CF, but realize OF is pretty low priority.

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#76 ChrisKnutson

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Posted 20 September 2018 - 08:36 PM

What expiring assets are left? And why not buy one really good free agent, that will be here for the next four or five years, so you aren't trying to fill as many holes when Lewis and kiriloff are here?
And, I don't think I said I'd try to buy a whole team..... That's not going to happen.


By “expiring assets,” I actually meant Castro, Gibson, Odorizzi, Pineda, and Reed, sorry for the misunderstanding.

And while I’m against a over paying for the hell of it, I understand that’s how free agency typically goes, so if we are going to hand out a multi-year contract (2-3 yrs), I’d prefer we hand it to proven bats like Wilson Ramos and Nelson Cruz.
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#77 glunn

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Posted 20 September 2018 - 09:11 PM

 

Tom Froemming
How many times have I got to say this? Willians Astudillo lifetime contract. That's item No. 1.

 

This, plus the same for Escobar, then go from there.

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#78 DocBauer

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Posted 20 September 2018 - 09:35 PM

1st, keeping with the initial thread, the absolute #1 priority for the Twins in 2019, and going forward, is developing and maximizing what you have NOW.

I've read a lot of great posts and ideas here. And on the surface, I understand comments about improving the "talent level" across the board.

But that's NOT the problem. Yes, there are question marks all over the place. But pause your angst and frustration from such a mixed up and disappointing season for a moment to look at the "talent" we are talking about!

Rosario, Buxton and Kepler in the OF with Cave as the 4th man. Couple of seasons ago, a lot of people wanted to trade Rosario. Would you now? Kepler needs to even out his 3 year splits and he's very, very good! Uber prospect Buxton needs to be healthy, just find a consistent approach where bat meets ball better and hitting .250 he's a borderline stud.

Austin is interesting. Polanco has a big bat, loaded with potential, is an OK SS who is better as a 2B, and Sano? You really want to give up on his talent and potential after this weird and crummy season? I sure dont!

1] Said it before, will say it again, get Hunter to spend time with Buxton this off season to talk about everything from hard times, to plate approach. To preserving his body.

2] Get SOMEONE who you trust, a Latin coach/instructor, to work with Sano and continue the work he put in with Ft Myers this season.

3] Examine your ML and milb roster of coaches and make sure a Latin presence of value is at each and every level. As well as instructors. With so much Latin talent in the system, I'm still wondering if we're doing enough in that area.

4] Bring in a pair of quality infielders. Bring in a proven SS to allow Polanco to move to 2B. OR, bring in a high quality 2B...like Castro, as has been mentioned elsewhere...and live with offense vs better defense. (I prefer the better defense route). Iglesias is a guy I'd strongly consider.

5] Re-sign Escobar if you can. Pay him like a starter because hes going to play almost daily. He can be a super utility player or daily player depending how things shake out.

6] Look really hard at adding a high quality SP via trade or FA. I love the Corbin idea, and dont buy the $25M per idea considering the changes in the marketplace.

7] Trade or FA, add one dynamite arm for the bullpen.

Is this a lot? No. It really isn't when you look deep. A pair of quality INF that does nothing to break the bank. And 2 pitchers, SP and RP, that also dont blow up the payroll
Especially when you look at the state of financial affairs after this season.

You're adding 4 players on 2-4 year deals and still probably holding your payroll in 2019 below the 2018 numbers.

The rest is infrastructure.

And if you really are worried about payroll...again, still lower than 2018 almost without a doubt...Reed and Odorizzi come off the books, potentially, after 2019.
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#79 wabene

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Posted 21 September 2018 - 08:11 AM

 

I don't disagree that it's picking up quite a bunch, but they have less than 50M in salary even with likely arbitration signings.They could legitimately come close to affording that list.I personally would prioritize it as Donaldson, Iglesias, Herera, SP and lastly Pollock.I really like Pollock since he's a RH and can play CF, but realize OF is pretty low priority.

I think money is just one factor. They definitely have set themselves up well in that department. My reference to a shopping spree is they don't just get to choose what they put in the cart but the products have a say plus there is only one of each on the shelf so you have competition from other shoppers to contend with. It sure is fun to imagine your ultimate FA team but quite another to actually pull it off.


#80 Doctor Wu

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Posted 21 September 2018 - 09:13 AM

At this point in time I say no to big contracts and aging free agents. The Twins should try and target the hidden gems out there, players who could thrive if given the opportunity. I'm thinking of players like Max Muncy or Scooter Gennett, or Blake Treinen, or even an older reclamation project like Johnny Venters or Edwin Jackson. Even a Daniel Palka (now with 26 homes!) type can be useful. No sense spending big money on the Logan Morrisons of the world There's gold in them hills! Just have to dig deeper.




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