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Article: Twins 2018 Minor League Starting Pitcher Of The Year

tyler wells brusdar graterol stephen gonsalves lewis thorpe edwar colina
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#21 Seth Stohs

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Posted 15 September 2018 - 12:49 PM

People worry so much about age and level and age to reach the big leagues... How about we worry more about them just being ready when they get there, or soon after? That's more important. College guys, maybe other than the first few still take 3-4 years to get to the big leagues, and that's OK. Wells is from a D2 school. Taking a little longer to get to the big leagues can be a good thing. He may have been more raw when signed, needed time to develop a 3rd or 4th pitch, etc. If that means he gets to the big leagues at 26, oh well. 

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#22 Seth Stohs

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Posted 15 September 2018 - 12:51 PM

 

Poppin is quitely climbing the minor league ladder quickly. He started lsst year in Cedar Rapids and is now in AA.
What does his scouting report say?

 

I haven't seen a ton of him, a start in Cedar Rapids and a few spring training appearances. But what I saw was a guy with a fastball 92-93 (which is plenty) and the changeup/curveball combo is solid. What I've seen is a want to be aggressive and a willingness and ability to adjust quickly. 

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#23 Dman

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Posted 15 September 2018 - 12:59 PM

I Really like how Wells attacks hitters.That no fear mentality seems likely to lead to success at higher levels.It is like he is daring hitters to try to hit his pitches.Really thought he pitched about as well as possible this year.If he can keep it up and I believe he will then he should get his big league opportunity next year.

 

I thought Colina was solid but unspectacular last year.At the end of this year I felt he really turned his game up a notch.Hoping he can Mejia like in the near future.

 

Always have been high on Brusdar but was hoping more younger pitchers would be making some noise.  

 

I still think pitching is a weakness in our system.Way to many number 5 starter types and not enough 2's and 3's potential.Still I like our system and am hopeful that if just a couple of these guys work we can be competitive down the road.

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#24 mlhouse

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Posted 15 September 2018 - 01:37 PM

 

I personally think Wells will start in AA, but will be called up to AAA no later than the All Star break. I believe Wells will be called up by September next year and by 2020 he’ll be competing for a spot in the rotation. As long as he stays healthy...

 

When you talk about hte "health" issue, shouldn't that be an argument to get him up to the majors as fast as you can?Every inning that he pitches in the minors is just increasing the probability he injures his arm before he ever reaches the major leagues.

 

The Twins, as a rebuilding team, have needed to commit to developing players at the major league level and htye just seem to refuse, preferring to pretend their minor league system develops the players adequately (which has been proven over and over not the case) and playing non-prospect mediocrities instead.

 

I get that the team believed they could compete this season but that shows that they had delusional thoughts based on a blip season of 2017.Instead, they should have committed to the young prospects and sorted them out.Find out if a guy like Romero or Gonsalves, or even Wells, can pitch at the major league level.After they moved through their prospects, then bringing in startes like Odorizzi and Lynn, or the veteran relievers like Reed and Duke to fill in were required.

 

 

 


#25 MN_ExPat

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Posted 15 September 2018 - 06:27 PM

 

Thanks for the write up! Where does everything think the top five will start next season?

 

- Colina will most likely start in Fort Myers since he only had 1 start there.

- Thorpe will most likely start at Rochester after finishing there this season.

- Gonsalves is a tough one. Will there be room in the Twins rotation right out of spring training? Will they send him to Rochester since he has struggled and they want him to get off to a good start next season?

- Graterol - My guess is he makes ~ 5 starts in Fort Myers next season and if he's doing well moves up to AA and potentially AAA if he continues to dominate.

- Wells will probably start in AA and hopefully move up to AAA before midseason.

Sounds good to me.I'd think that's a pretty good guestimate.


#26 FormerMinnasotan

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Posted 15 September 2018 - 08:21 PM

When you talk about hte "health" issue, shouldn't that be an argument to get him up to the majors as fast as you can? Every inning that he pitches in the minors is just increasing the probability he injures his arm before he ever reaches the major leagues.

The Twins, as a rebuilding team, have needed to commit to developing players at the major league level and htye just seem to refuse, preferring to pretend their minor league system develops the players adequately (which has been proven over and over not the case) and playing non-prospect mediocrities instead.

I get that the team believed they could compete this season but that shows that they had delusional thoughts based on a blip season of 2017. Instead, they should have committed to the young prospects and sorted them out. Find out if a guy like Romero or Gonsalves, or even Wells, can pitch at the major league level. After they moved through their prospects, then bringing in startes like Odorizzi and Lynn, or the veteran relievers like Reed and Duke to fill in were required.

What I mean is as long as he stays healthy I believe he’ll finish next year in Minnesota. The only issue to derail Wells is injury IMO. That’s what I mean.
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#27 beckmt

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Posted 16 September 2018 - 05:16 AM

Seems like Seth left out Stewart and Mejia (or does he have inside information on them that they are not in the Twins plans going forward). 

Interesting group and more interesting is what the Twins plan for next year with only one spot open at this time.


#28 Doctor Wu

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Posted 16 September 2018 - 07:15 AM

On a retro note, seeing the list of Previous Twins Daily Minor League Starting Pitchers of the Year, the winner in 2012 caught my eye: B.J. Hermsen. I have to admit that I have zero recollection of this guy. Whatever happened to him?


#29 birdwatcher

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Posted 16 September 2018 - 07:45 AM

 

On a retro note, seeing the list of Previous Twins Daily Minor League Starting Pitchers of the Year, the winner in 2012 caught my eye: B.J. Hermsen. I have to admit that I have zero recollection of this guy. Whatever happened to him?

 

Hermsen is coaching the sophomore baseball team at Waverly-Shell Rock HS in Iowa. He was the victim of a sudden unexplained loss of 6MPH in velocity, and never mastered a third pitch. He's one of those mysteries that often is explained as a failure of the development staff but just as likely resulted from either injury or something of a more personal nature. 

 

I'm not at all suggesting this is the case with Hermsen, but I think we lose sight of how often people are derailed by problems with addiction and mental health in their daily lives. I'd argue that kids with sudden cash and unsupervised free time might be susceptible to certain temptations and that more flameouts are a result of this than we'll ever know. Again, I'm not thinking this kid fell victim to anything in particular, and it's possible the development people simple failed him too.

 

Any pitching prospect that succeeds in MLB has overcome long odds, so I'm especially impressed with these late-rounders like Rogers and Hildenberger who defy the odds. I hope there are a couple more of those guys mentioned here!

Edited by birdwatcher, 16 September 2018 - 08:14 AM.

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#30 TheLeviathan

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Posted 16 September 2018 - 08:55 AM

 

People worry so much about age and level and age to reach the big leagues... How about we worry more about them just being ready when they get there, or soon after? That's more important. College guys, maybe other than the first few still take 3-4 years to get to the big leagues, and that's OK. Wells is from a D2 school. Taking a little longer to get to the big leagues can be a good thing. He may have been more raw when signed, needed time to develop a 3rd or 4th pitch, etc. If that means he gets to the big leagues at 26, oh well. 

 

I agree, it's important to be ready.But we also know pitchers start losing velocity and a number of other physical side effects as they age.

 

I don't think it's mutually exclusive to worry about both.Get them up ready....and as aggressively as possible.

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#31 Seth Stohs

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Posted 16 September 2018 - 09:28 AM

 

Seems like Seth left out Stewart and Mejia (or does he have inside information on them that they are not in the Twins plans going forward). 

Interesting group and more interesting is what the Twins plan for next year with only one spot open at this time.

 

No inside information. Stewart and Mejia likely factor into 2019 as well. I was trying to be brief and missed a couple of obvious candidates.

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#32 glunn

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Posted 17 September 2018 - 01:17 AM

It sounds like Tyler Wells has great upside. Losing that much weight requires huge discipline, which should serve him well as he unlocks his full potential. I would love to see this kid surpass Kluber and think that's possible if he works hard and stays healthy.


#33 djvang

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Posted 17 September 2018 - 07:27 AM

 

<<Gonsalves hasn't shown me anything. Soft slop that might bewilder AAA batters doesn't fool major leaguers. He reminds me of Tommy Milone. If his control isn't perfect or the ump isn't giving him the corners he's going to get clobbered when he has to throw the ball over the plate. I'm discouraged that the Twins are so high on him.>>

 

Tommy Glavine threw slop all the way to the Hall of Fame.

And umps gave him 3 inches on the outside of the plate.


#34 Tomj14

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Posted 17 September 2018 - 07:41 AM

 

People worry so much about age and level and age to reach the big leagues... How about we worry more about them just being ready when they get there, or soon after? That's more important. College guys, maybe other than the first few still take 3-4 years to get to the big leagues, and that's OK. Wells is from a D2 school. Taking a little longer to get to the big leagues can be a good thing. He may have been more raw when signed, needed time to develop a 3rd or 4th pitch, etc. If that means he gets to the big leagues at 26, oh well. 

Don't you think people worry about age because 17 or 18of the top 20 in the American lead leaders in ERA were pitching in the majors by or at age 24? and about the same in the National league. Sure DeGrom and Kluber came up a little later, but playing the odds say if a starting pitcher isn't pitching in the majors by 24, they are not going to be top end rotation guys and as a Twins fans that is all I care about now, they don't seem to have a huge issue filling the back end of the rotation.

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#35 108Stitches

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Posted 17 September 2018 - 10:55 AM

Don't you think people worry about age because 17 or 18 of the top 20 in the American lead leaders in ERA were pitching in the majors by or at age 24? and about the same in the National league. Sure DeGrom and Kluber came up a little later, but playing the odds say if a starting pitcher isn't pitching in the majors by 24, they are not going to be top end rotation guys and as a Twins fans that is all I care about now, they don't seem to have a huge issue filling the back end of the rotation.


The odds also say that your 15th rounder shouldn’t be performing better than nearly everyone in front of him in the last 3 years. But sometimes things just break your way! Embrace and enjoy
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#36 Seth Stohs

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Posted 17 September 2018 - 11:36 AM

 

Don't you think people worry about age because 17 or 18of the top 20 in the American lead leaders in ERA were pitching in the majors by or at age 24? and about the same in the National league. Sure DeGrom and Kluber came up a little later, but playing the odds say if a starting pitcher isn't pitching in the majors by 24, they are not going to be top end rotation guys and as a Twins fans that is all I care about now, they don't seem to have a huge issue filling the back end of the rotation.

 

I just assume most pitches wont' be top end of the rotation guys. There arent very many of them in the game. If you're talking about the Top 20 in a league, well, that means one per team, and we know the Astros have like 4, etc. 

 

Berrios can be an upper level starter, and they had him come up when he was like 21-22. College guys come into pro ball at 21-22, so again, unless theyre like Verlander, Cole, Price, etc., it's' going to take them til 24-25 to get to the big leagues. 

 

 

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#37 Mike Sixel

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Posted 17 September 2018 - 03:47 PM

<<Gonsalves hasn't shown me anything. Soft slop that might bewilder AAA batters doesn't fool major leaguers. He reminds me of Tommy Milone. If his control isn't perfect or the ump isn't giving him the corners he's going to get clobbered when he has to throw the ball over the plate. I'm discouraged that the Twins are so high on him.>>

Tommy Glavine threw slop all the way to the Hall of Fame.


Glavine had great stuff. Gonsalves does not. He's a RP or shuttle guy, imo.

The rest of the top five have really interesting stuff. Looking forward to seeing Thorpe next year.

I remain hopeful on Buxton and Sano.....but I'd not bet the franchise on them.


#38 70charger

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Posted 18 September 2018 - 06:19 AM

 

Don't you think people worry about age because 17 or 18of the top 20 in the American lead leaders in ERA were pitching in the majors by or at age 24? and about the same in the National league. Sure DeGrom and Kluber came up a little later, but playing the odds say if a starting pitcher isn't pitching in the majors by 24, they are not going to be top end rotation guys and as a Twins fans that is all I care about now, they don't seem to have a huge issue filling the back end of the rotation.

 

You may be right, but it's also logically possible that you're reversing cause and effect: i.e., it is possible that these amazing pitchers are all in the big leagues early because they're naturally amazing pitchers. Mozart could write symphonies as a kid. Does that mean that all kids should be pressed to write symphonies?

 

I'd love to see a side-by-side of the bell curve's tails. I don't have the bandwidth to do it, but wouldn't it be interesting to see a comparison of the top-level pitchers who are late bloomers versus the top-level pitchers who are prodigies?


#39 Tomj14

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Posted 18 September 2018 - 07:26 AM

 

You may be right, but it's also logically possible that you're reversing cause and effect: i.e., it is possible that these amazing pitchers are all in the big leagues early because they're naturally amazing pitchers. Mozart could write symphonies as a kid. Does that mean that all kids should be pressed to write symphonies?

 

I'd love to see a side-by-side of the bell curve's tails. I don't have the bandwidth to do it, but wouldn't it be interesting to see a comparison of the top-level pitchers who are late bloomers versus the top-level pitchers who are prodigies?

I am not saying because somebody is up early they will be a top pitcher. I am saying the best pitchers in baseball are up at a younger age because they are better.

The longer a guy takes in the minors to get to the majors the less likely they are to become a top rotation guy.

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#40 Twodogs

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Posted 18 September 2018 - 12:56 PM

Clicking on some of those other names like BJ Hermson was kind of interesting?

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