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Jim Callis' Top 10 Prospects 1 Year From Now

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#1 dish

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Posted 13 September 2018 - 08:41 AM

Two Twins make the list:

 

https://www.mlb.com/...cts/c-294181356

 

 

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#2 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 13 September 2018 - 08:45 AM

depending on the people doing the rankings, I wouldn't be surprised if those guys snuck into some top 10s this offseason. Lewis in particular given he plays an up the middle position. 

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#3 amjgt

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Posted 13 September 2018 - 08:52 AM

2 in the top 3

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#4 AlwaysinModeration

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Posted 16 September 2018 - 05:29 AM

They expect Lewis and Kiriloff to be top 3? Amazing. And if I read the parentheses right, Lewis is already #1?

Wow.

Edited by AlwaysinModeration, 16 September 2018 - 05:53 AM.

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#5 birdwatcher

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Posted 16 September 2018 - 07:13 AM

While the progress of Kirilloff and Lewis is heartening, I'm not losing sight of the real possibility that both Chicago and Detroit may have done an even better job of shoring up their talent pipeline in the way that counts most: prospects with above-average ceilings.

 

Aside from Kopech, who is a Tommy John casualty at the moment, Chicago has a couple of other pitching prospects the evaluators like better than they ever liked Berrios. Plus, they graduate Jiminez, who might be everything that Sano has so far refused to be, and Robert is an outfielder on the cusp who tiers in there with Lewis and Kirilloff rather than down where Buxton now resides and way higher than Gordon.

 

Detroit has five pitching prospects among the top 100 prospects, and all but one rank more highly, for now, than our Graterol. Every one of them is more ighly regarded than Gonsalves ever was.

 

So while it's nice to have Lewis and Kirilloff in the system, we are still bereft of exciting oitching prospects and need a couple of pitching prospects to emerge in the same manner that Kirilloff did.

 

Could be worse. Kansas City. Jeez.

 

 

Edited by birdwatcher, 16 September 2018 - 07:15 AM.

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#6 FlauerPauer

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Posted 18 September 2018 - 04:45 PM

 

So while it's nice to have Lewis and Kirilloff in the system, we are still bereft of exciting oitching prospects and need a couple of pitching prospects to emerge in the same manner that Kirilloff did.

 

The Twins had three pitching prospects in rankings this year.

 

Romero, Gonsalves, and Graterol.While they may not be at the same level as the Tigers or Sox, that's still a good number to have.Graterol may very well be a stud.Romero looked great at times.Gonsalves had a rough go, but also pitched more innings than he has in his career. Thorpe may not be too bad either.

 

I think the Twins are doing fine.

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#7 birdwatcher

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Posted 18 September 2018 - 05:02 PM

 

The Twins had three pitching prospects in rankings this year.

 

Romero, Gonsalves, and Graterol.While they may not be at the same level as the Tigers or Sox, that's still a good number to have.Graterol may very well be a stud.Romero looked great at times.Gonsalves had a rough go, but also pitched more innings than he has in his career. Thorpe may not be too bad either.

 

I think the Twins are doing fine.

 

It's all relative. Keep in mind I offered a relative comparison, AL Central only, pitching-specific, based on rankings compiled by expert evaluators.

 

But I don't totally disagree that, even on a relative basis, the Twins are "doing fine" at building up talent. Relative to the White Sox however? I suppose one could argue that one or the other has a decided talent edge on their current 25-man roster, but I don't think you'd get many experts to say anything but that the CWS talent pipeline is superior. For example, Fangraphs just put out an updated Top 100. CWS has nine prospects on it! The Twins are doing fine, with five. That's better than Cleveland, Detroit and Kansas City.

 

To accomplish this "sustained excellence" thing that Falvey say he's trying to do, they need to bolster the minor league pitching talent further. 

Edited by birdwatcher, 18 September 2018 - 05:03 PM.


#8 h2oface

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Posted 18 September 2018 - 05:18 PM

I will think that the Twins are doing fine when any of these suspects can be MLB everyday players, and hopefully, stars. I have seen too much expectation turn into nothing, or be traded away and turn into something somewhere else while we end up with nothing, to think that the Twins are "doing fine". Minor league ball really means closer to nothing than something.

Edited by h2oface, 18 September 2018 - 05:19 PM.

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#9 launchingthrees

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Posted 20 September 2018 - 10:22 AM

 

I will think that the Twins are doing fine when any of these suspects can be MLB everyday players, and hopefully, stars. I have seen too much expectation turn into nothing, or be traded away and turn into something somewhere else while we end up with nothing, to think that the Twins are "doing fine". Minor league ball really means closer to nothing than something.

 

So why talk about prospects at all then?

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#10 birdwatcher

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Posted 22 September 2018 - 11:08 AM

 

I will think that the Twins are doing fine when any of these suspects can be MLB everyday players, and hopefully, stars. I have seen too much expectation turn into nothing, or be traded away and turn into something somewhere else while we end up with nothing, to think that the Twins are "doing fine". Minor league ball really means closer to nothing than something.

 

 

No questioning the disappointment. I think the monumental buzzkill from Sano and Buxton obscures how meaningful the minor league pipeline is, making us forget nice surprises like Rosario or Rogers and instead opt to express frustrations about Chargois or Burdi. There's plenty of ammo to be negative and an equal amount of room to be positive. 

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#11 Han Joelo

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Posted 22 September 2018 - 11:51 AM

 

No questioning the disappointment. I think the monumental buzzkill from Sano and Buxton obscures how meaningful the minor league pipeline is, making us forget nice surprises like Rosario or Rogers and instead opt to express frustrations about Chargois or Burdi. There's plenty of ammo to be negative and an equal amount of room to be positive. 

The bolded italics sum it all up nicely.  Fool me once, strike one.  Fool me again...strike three.

 

I think (hope?) Lewis and Kirilloff will be different.  And while Mike Trout is proof one star (even a super one) isn't enough, Cleveland sets a different example with Lindor and Ramirez...at least on the positional side.  If Royce and Alex can achieve their ceilings, I'd rather have the two of them then Jimenez and all 5 of the White Sox pitching prospects.


#12 birdwatcher

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Posted 22 September 2018 - 12:45 PM

 

The bolded italics sum it all up nicely.  Fool me once, strike one.  Fool me again...strike three.

 

I think (hope?) Lewis and Kirilloff will be different.  And while Mike Trout is proof one star (even a super one) isn't enough, Cleveland sets a different example with Lindor and Ramirez...at least on the positional side.  If Royce and Alex can achieve their ceilings, I'd rather have the two of them then Jimenez and all 5 of the White Sox pitching prospects.

 

 

I tend to agree with you, for two reasons. One, MOST highly-touted (say, top 10) positional prospects DO in fact perform close to or even at the highest expectations. We forget how insanely unlucky we've been to have our two most coveted talent stink it up like they have. Second, pitching performance is so volatile, and that makes the perceived gap between a top 100 pitching prospect and a top 250 pitching prospect much much narrower than say the gap between someone like Lindor versus someone like Gordon.

 

Meaning the gap between Kopech, Cease, and Dunning may not be as wide as it seems over Graterol, Romero, and Thorpe. But OTOH, I'm not all that convinced (yet) that the advantage we get from Lewis/Kirilloff is significant, if it exists at all, over CWS's Jiminez and Robert.

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#13 drivlikejehu

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Posted 22 September 2018 - 07:29 PM

 

So why talk about prospects at all then?

 

It's 95% entertainment. Lots of time is spent discussing guys that are not even high-level prospects, let alone the fact that many highly-touted prospects do nothing in the Majors.

 

Following those careers is interesting and I've paid attention to minor league results since the 90s (and for perspective, I'm 34). But a lot of fans have trouble separating minor league successes from the reality of ultimately making an impact at the MLB level. The typical Twins' prospect is overrated by the rank and file commentators here. 

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