Jump to content

Providing independent coverage of the Minnesota Twins.
Subscribe to Twins Daily Email
Photo

Article: Where Are The Twins Getting It Wrong?

  • Please log in to reply
238 replies to this topic

#221 beckmt

beckmt

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 2,243 posts

Posted 15 September 2018 - 12:43 PM

 

There are exactly six (6) relievers making more than $12 mil per year. Three of them are with the Yankees, who always overpay.


https://www.spotrac....relief-pitcher/


What relievers out there do you think will command $12 to $18 mil per year?

I do not have the list I saw in front of me, but I believe Kimbal and Andrew Miller are available.Also Dolittle, Herrera, and some othere.I do believe Kimball and Andrew Miller will be in that range (assuming Miller can prove he's healthy).Doolittle, Herrera, Famela and some of the other will be between $9 and $12 million a year.If you have not looked relief pitching prices are going up.Clubs are learning the value of great relief pitching (they are cheaper than starters and can affect many more games when you are ahead).Twins need to get with the program.


#222 Twins33

Twins33

    Junior Member

  • Members
  • 465 posts

Posted 15 September 2018 - 06:34 PM

Lynn has been lights out for the Yankees....but tell me one person that saw that coming.I doubt even the Yankees expected what they got from him.

Just FYI, Lynn was great in his first three starts but is sporting a 7.66 ERA in his last five. His FIP is pretty good in that time, but I think the Yanks would rather have actual results.
  • ashburyjohn, 70charger and TheLeviathan like this

#223 Doomtints

Doomtints

    Minnesota Twins

  • Members
  • 2,900 posts

Posted 15 September 2018 - 06:55 PM

 

Just FYI, Lynn was great in his first three starts but is sporting a 7.66 ERA in his last five. His FIP is pretty good in that time, but I think the Yanks would rather have actual results.

 

What I think is weird is that anyone thought his suckiness is anything other than a fluke.

 

Fans around here never liked his signing and I don't see why. Baseball-reference says his similar pitchers include:

 

- Corey Kluber

- Jake Arrieta

- Clay Buchholz

 

etc...

 

No hall of famers, but some pitchers who were or are very good. This is based on numbers, not opinions.


#224 TheLeviathan

TheLeviathan

    Twins News Team

  • Members
  • 15,624 posts

Posted 15 September 2018 - 08:48 PM

 

Just FYI, Lynn was great in his first three starts but is sporting a 7.66 ERA in his last five. His FIP is pretty good in that time, but I think the Yanks would rather have actual results.

 

That only helps my point!:)


#225 ND-Fan

ND-Fan

    Member

  • Members
  • 189 posts

Posted 16 September 2018 - 02:26 AM

I don't understand how you judge the moves the Twins made this summer and fall have improved this team for next year. We gutted the 40 man roster and just added players that other organizations had determined didn't fit into their plans or they had better aternatives in their system. The trades for Dozier, Escobar, and Pressely we recieved no prospect higher than advanced A ball. This means were still at less than 50% chance of never seeing these kids in the majors. WE have very few high end prospects in either triple A or Double A that could advance to the majors. Our highest prospect in those levels is now struggling wasn't good enough to be called up this fall in Gordon. Second this gutting has been planed for some time because the proof is how they handled Buxton with his injuries they had plan to save a year of team control long before they made any trades of the above players. If you haven't figured it out were to just go through at least 2 more seasons of 90+ losses to acquire more prospects. They are not going to sign any quality free agents next year it will be low cost one year deal people to just fill out lineup. Gibson, Ordorizzi, and Sano are going to be traded next year with only exception being Sano if he continues to struggle for more Prospects. Any Trades will be for closer prospect ready to majors like might be called up next year and will play the following year. All you people out there that think were going to be contenders next year is a dream. Also for all you Molitor haters with type of team he will have to manage they will have plenty of loosing to base letting him go. I also hate to see what type of club house they will have because there will no thinking of team but wondering if i have a job or where are they going to move me for their next prospect. I like to see what ownership and Dave St.Peter think of this when they are trying to sell tickets in next few years. I could see attendance drop from 2 million mark down to 1.5 million mark pretty easily if the Twins put poor team out there from the begining of spring training with little for fan draw. I am waiting for all you that supported this gutting see your reactions are when we are experiencing poor baseball on the field. I will still be fan always looking for the hope but i am afraid were going to experience what Cub fan experienced for many years utter futility on the field.


#226 beckmt

beckmt

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 2,243 posts

Posted 16 September 2018 - 05:23 AM

We should be able to tell where the Twins are going next year by the end of the year.If next year is sort them out, then Oderizzi should be send packing and Gibson either extended or traded.You have 8 candidates for one starting slot and that is unworkable.

Otherwise you should package a few of them for a better midrange pitcher and sign a #1 or #2 starter plus a least a couple very good relievers.We will know soon.


#227 Platoon

Platoon

    Minnesota Twins

  • Members
  • 4,869 posts
  • LocationTwinsWorld

Posted 16 September 2018 - 06:08 AM

This will be a make or break off season for the FO. For better or worse they have chosen a direction, the future is now in their hands. The question really isn't if they can put a contending product on the field next year, the question is can they put an improved product on the field next year? Can they clear the 40 man of some chaff? Can they somehow field a team capable of fundamental baseball. Can they solve the Sano and Buxton dilemma? And can they keep moving legitimate prospects up the chain. Something tells me this is going to be an unsettling year for players currently on the 40 and 25 man rosters. So unsettling that I would not be extremely surprised to see Sano traded.
TwinsWorld: Did you hear we just updated the Stadium Club?

If I wanted balls and strikes called by a robot, I would get an Xbox!

#228 Twins33

Twins33

    Junior Member

  • Members
  • 465 posts

Posted 17 September 2018 - 02:12 PM

That only helps my point!:)

Right. I was just making sure you knew that he wasn't lights out anymore.
  • Riverbrian and TheLeviathan like this

#229 Twins33

Twins33

    Junior Member

  • Members
  • 465 posts

Posted 17 September 2018 - 02:21 PM

What I think is weird is that anyone thought his suckiness is anything other than a fluke.
 
Fans around here never liked his signing and I don't see why. Baseball-reference says his similar pitchers include:
 
- Corey Kluber
- Jake Arrieta
- Clay Buchholz
 
etc...
 
No hall of famers, but some pitchers who were or are very good. This is based on numbers, not opinions.

I was fine with the signing because it was a one year deal. And I thought he'd be the Twins best pitcher (pretty sure I put that in one of those prediction threads before the season).

That being said, the Lance Lynn from 2017 to now is nowhere near as good as the Lance Lynn from 2011-2015. It usually takes most guys years to get their mojo back after Tommy John surgery (if they do at all) and he's already near the age decline.

Lynn is a 4/5 starter now. Expecting anything more out of him is foolish. Those pitchers listed are better than him the last year plus.
  • Doomtints likes this

#230 Mike Sixel

Mike Sixel

    Now living in Oregon

  • Members
  • 27,578 posts

Posted 17 September 2018 - 03:10 PM

I don't understand how you judge the moves the Twins made this summer and fall have improved this team for next year. We gutted the 40 man roster and just added players that other organizations had determined didn't fit into their plans or they had better aternatives in their system. The trades for Dozier, Escobar, and Pressely we recieved no prospect higher than advanced A ball. This means were still at less than 50% chance of never seeing these kids in the majors. WE have very few high end prospects in either triple A or Double A that could advance to the majors. Our highest prospect in those levels is now struggling wasn't good enough to be called up this fall in Gordon. Second this gutting has been planed for some time because the proof is how they handled Buxton with his injuries they had plan to save a year of team control long before they made any trades of the above players. If you haven't figured it out were to just go through at least 2 more seasons of 90+ losses to acquire more prospects. They are not going to sign any quality free agents next year it will be low cost one year deal people to just fill out lineup. Gibson, Ordorizzi, and Sano are going to be traded next year with only exception being Sano if he continues to struggle for more Prospects. Any Trades will be for closer prospect ready to majors like might be called up next year and will play the following year. All you people out there that think were going to be contenders next year is a dream. Also for all you Molitor haters with type of team he will have to manage they will have plenty of loosing to base letting him go. I also hate to see what type of club house they will have because there will no thinking of team but wondering if i have a job or where are they going to move me for their next prospect. I like to see what ownership and Dave St.Peter think of this when they are trying to sell tickets in next few years. I could see attendance drop from 2 million mark down to 1.5 million mark pretty easily if the Twins put poor team out there from the begining of spring training with little for fan draw. I am waiting for all you that supported this gutting see your reactions are when we are experiencing poor baseball on the field. I will still be fan always looking for the hope but i am afraid were going to experience what Cub fan experienced for many years utter futility on the field.


Keeping Dozier and Escobar doesn't help next year at all, or any year, probably. Since they are free agents. How does keeping them help?
  • Twins33 and TheLeviathan like this

I remain hopeful on Buxton and Sano.....but I'd not bet the franchise on them.


#231 Riverbrian

Riverbrian

    Goofy Moderator

  • Twins Mods
  • 19,957 posts
  • LocationGrand Forks, ND

Posted 17 September 2018 - 07:43 PM

Brian Dozier:

http://www.latimes.c...0908-story.html

 

Logan Morrison:

https://mlb.nbcsport...ending-surgery/

 

Byron Buxton:

http://www.1500espn....g-start-season/

 

Playing Hurt and Performing well suggests a toughness that you can be proud of. 

 

Playing Hurt and Not Performing suggests multiple people from the player, to the manager, to the front office getting it wrong. 

 

WIth the addition of Dozier to this list. It has been reported that 3 players were playing hurt, which is admirable unless... you are hurting the team trying to be admirable. 

 

It wasn't the people on the DL who killed us... It was the people who apparently were not placed on the DL.

 

The front office is in charge here. They got this very wrong. 

 

A Skeleton walks into a bar and says... "Give me a beer... And a mop".

 

President of the "Baseball Player Positional Flexibility" Club 

Founded 4-23-16 

 

Strike Zone Automation Advocate

 

I'm not a starting 9 guy!!!


#232 Channing1964

Channing1964

    Cedar Rapids

  • Members
  • 77 posts
  • LocationPhoenix,Az

Posted 18 September 2018 - 05:08 AM

In terms of talent, it might be true that those players are better. In terms of production since the deadline it's really not. (Quick comparison here only)

Austin - .783 OPS, Forsythe - .679 OPS/ Dozier - .631 and Escobar .738. There is very little difference there. And what difference there is favors the Twins.

May and Drake 3.99 and 3.83 in FIP replaced Pressley and Rodney (1.49 and 4.19) Clearly Pressley is a good player, but even that from a bullpen is not a hugely different outcome.

Lynn has been lights out for the Yankees....but tell me one person that saw that coming. I doubt even the Yankees expected what they got from him.

Of course, there can be an emotional impact from selling at the deadline, I wouldn't disagree with that. But in terms of the talent being shuffled on the 25/40 man roster as a result of the moves made at the deadline, it's hard to see how the overall talent level and production were radically changed. Even for 2019, only Pressley and Rodney were even counted officially as part of that group. The rest of the players dealt were all on expiring contracts.

I just don't see how anyone can make a cogent argument that dealing expiring deals cripples the 2019 40 man (as suggested earlier) or how the overall talent of the team was radically changed. This wasn't a terribly talented team all year due to a confluence of issues that the FO does share blame for. So it really feels like unfair criticism to hammer the FO for selling on a talented playoff team and then hammer them a month later for having the organization in shambles for dealing a handful of meaningful players. (Most of whom are older and/or on expiring deals)

mark my words, letting Lance Lynn go for , ok i will say it NOTHING, will be known as one of the worst trades we ever made. He was tracking to be just what he always has been...a reliable #3 or maybe even #2 starter with a winner's heart. Spend some time and look up what former St.Louis Cardinal's players do when they leave that organization. I know, but you prolly will be amazed. it is not a joke. i spit real sir.

#233 Channing1964

Channing1964

    Cedar Rapids

  • Members
  • 77 posts
  • LocationPhoenix,Az

Posted 18 September 2018 - 05:10 AM

I am so tired of this because when they get fired we wont be debating Falvines Fallacys and Failures anymore. i just heard Levine say the coaching staff performed better in 2018 than 2017. Ha! guess he hasnt seen any games.

#234 Channing1964

Channing1964

    Cedar Rapids

  • Members
  • 77 posts
  • LocationPhoenix,Az

Posted 18 September 2018 - 05:15 AM

You are refusing to look at this objectively. The Indians are on pace to win 91 games. The Twins would have had to have gone 52-14 to catch the Indians. Are you really suggesting it is reasonable to think a team with a winning percentage of .462 was going to win at a .788 pace had they kept the players you mentioned?

Cleveland’s 4th best SP has equal or perhaps even better stats than our best SP. Brantley's stats are better than our best offensive player. Their two best position players are significantly better than any of the Twin’s position players. Please explain how Cleveland is not good relative to the Twins. I would love to see what I am missing.

its easy now to look and say Cleveland, my Indians are going to win 95 games. OF COURSE THEY ARE! THEY ARE PLAYING AA competition since the july 27 mark. The whole thing is ....what WOULD have happened? Cleveland has 0...thats Zero chance to win one playoff series. NONE. WE GAVE THEM THE DIVISION. At the very least we should care about the boost to the economy Minneapolis would get from one home playoff game. UNBELIEVABLE!

#235 Pitz

Pitz

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 438 posts

Posted 18 September 2018 - 06:37 AM

its easy now to look and say Cleveland, my Indians are going to win 95 games. OF COURSE THEY ARE! THEY ARE PLAYING AA competition since the july 27 mark. The whole thing is ....what WOULD have happened? Cleveland has 0...thats Zero chance to win one playoff series. NONE. WE GAVE THEM THE DIVISION. At the very least we should care about the boost to the economy Minneapolis would get from one home playoff game. UNBELIEVABLE!


Please forgive me if I'm wrong but haven't you said that the Twins should have tried harder to make the playoffs because anything can happen then. But somehow a Cleveland team that was 7 games better than the Twins around the deadline has no chance in the playoffs?
I get that you wanted to see the team play meaningful games in September. We all did. Some people think the FO was right to pivot when things looked bleak. Some people wanted them to keep fighting and hoped things would turn around.
  • 70charger likes this

#236 spycake

spycake

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 14,261 posts

Posted 18 September 2018 - 08:45 AM

 

Cleveland has 0...thats Zero chance to win one playoff series. NONE.

Hyperbolic much? :)

 

Fangraphs gives Cleveland a 42.4% chance of winning the division series, 21.1% of also winning the ALCS, and a 13.1% of also winning the World Series. I'm not sure what odds I would give them, but it would be a lot closer to those than to your zero.

  • 70charger likes this

#237 Mike Sixel

Mike Sixel

    Now living in Oregon

  • Members
  • 27,578 posts

Posted 18 September 2018 - 09:33 AM

mark my words, letting Lance Lynn go for , ok i will say it NOTHING, will be known as one of the worst trades we ever made. He was tracking to be just what he always has been...a reliable #3 or maybe even #2 starter with a winner's heart. Spend some time and look up what former St.Louis Cardinal's players do when they leave that organization. I know, but you prolly will be amazed. it is not a joke. i spit real sir.


He's a free agent.... They can sign him again if they want. Why keep him for a lost season? And, I'm guessing that was the best offer...
  • diehardtwinsfan, Twins33, 70charger and 2 others like this

I remain hopeful on Buxton and Sano.....but I'd not bet the franchise on them.


#238 TheLeviathan

TheLeviathan

    Twins News Team

  • Members
  • 15,624 posts

Posted 18 September 2018 - 01:08 PM

 

He's a free agent.... They can sign him again if they want. Why keep him for a lost season? And, I'm guessing that was the best offer...

 

And Tyler Austin seems like a pretty useful player going forward.

  • Twins33 likes this

#239 Doomtints

Doomtints

    Minnesota Twins

  • Members
  • 2,900 posts

Posted 19 September 2018 - 08:48 AM

I didn't see it mentioned that Pineda has not pitched this month because he tore up his knee.

 

This reminds me a bit of Santana, who kept having strange injuries as he tried to come back to the majors.