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Contention 2019?

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#41 LA VIkes Fan

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Posted 21 August 2018 - 11:34 AM

 

Geez, just looking at Addison Reed's Brooks Baseball profile and it looks like he's lost nearly 2 MPH on his FB and 2.5 MPH from his slider since the start of the season. 

 

If they want to rely on him next year I think the front office needs to tell Molitor that Reed's appearances are going to be capped at 1 maybe 2 a week from here on out. Looking at his past years he's never had in-season declines like this. This doesn't look good, give this guy lots of rest, don't blow out his arm just to chase a .500 record.

Maybe even shut him down on 9/1 when rosters expand. 

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#42 strumdatjaguar

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Posted 21 August 2018 - 11:47 AM

The Twins should contend - Barring injury with A to F Grade:

 

Starters (B+)

Certain Starters :

Gibson and Berrios

Probable Startera:

Pineda and Odorizzi

Competition for remaining Starter(s)

Romero, Gonsalves, Slegers, Stewart

 

Certain Relief Pitchers B-):

Hildenberger, Rogers, Reed and one or two FAs

 

Likely Relief Pitchers:

Moya, May, Magill

 

Competition:

Busenitz, and many others.

 

Catcher:©

Mitch Garver and Jason Castro

 

DH (C+)

Competition: Tyler Austin, Kennys Vargas (very good recently), possible free agent.

 

Infield (B+)

Certain:Starters

Mauer (will be resigned), Sano, Polanco

Second Base (in order of likelihood):

FA, Forsythe or Adrianza

Utility:

Forsythe, Adrianza

 

Outfield (who knows to A):

Certain: Rosario'

Probable: Kepler and Buxton

Possible: FA, Cave, Wade, Granite

 

Manager:

Almost Certain: Molitor (one more year then likely to retire)

 

Certainly a probably, contending team, but far from the 1927 Yankees.I know many fans hate patience but much talent is in the 2-3 years away category. I hope the Twins don't block their progression with too many FAs signed to long-term contracts.

 

 

 

 


#43 Number3

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Posted 21 August 2018 - 11:53 AM

Sure, the Twins "could" content next year. All that will have to be resolved are a few simple issues.

1) starting pitching

2) bull pen

3) position players

3) bench

4) MANAGER

 

How about fielding the best team you can and just going out and playing ball and trying to win every game, starting with the White Sox tonight? Said it before and will say it again, the biggest ruse in big time sports, including the college game, is "Wait til next year".


#44 wsnydes

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Posted 21 August 2018 - 11:54 AM

I don't really see a reason why this team can't compete for the division next season. Beyond that though, is a pipe dream without serious upgrades in a few spots. Virtually everyone had a career worst year this year and that's just as likely to happen again as all of the career best years that occurred last season. Cleveland is getable and this team has enough payroll flexibility to augment the core that's already here. The fact that the FO didn't trade the likes of Gibson, Rosario, etc is that they too believe that they can compete next season.

 

Whether they do or not will depend on the core holding up their end of the bargain. Sano and Buxton must perform, Rosario needs to replicate this season, Kepler needs some better luck and basically everyone else needs to grow a bit. That's not overly optimistic in my view. I still have plenty of questions and concerns, but I don't think it's an unreasonable opinion that they can compete. I also don't think it unreasonable to think that they won't.

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#45 Tomj14

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Posted 21 August 2018 - 12:16 PM

I keep seeing the Twins need another starting pitcher, which confuses me a bit.

I like depth as much as the next person, but if you keep Gibson, they have Berrios and Romero,Pineda ,Odorizzi Gonzo and a bunch of prospects fighting for two spots, which as we all know means that Pineda and Odorizzi will get the first shot and probably for a while. Leaving all the guys taking up 40 man roster spots in the minors.

IMO, unless they move Gibson I don't see the need for a starting pitcher, unless that starter is an established very top of the rotation guy. Which I think might require trading a few prospects.


#46 nicksaviking

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Posted 21 August 2018 - 02:56 PM

 

I keep seeing the Twins need another starting pitcher, which confuses me a bit.

I like depth as much as the next person, but if you keep Gibson, they have Berrios and Romero,Pineda ,Odorizzi Gonzo and a bunch of prospects fighting for two spots, which as we all know means that Pineda and Odorizzi will get the first shot and probably for a while. Leaving all the guys taking up 40 man roster spots in the minors.

IMO, unless they move Gibson I don't see the need for a starting pitcher, unless that starter is an established very top of the rotation guy. Which I think might require trading a few prospects.

 

Sure, that group is an improvement on what we typically see around here, but that group can't hold a candle to what Houston, Cleveland and Boston are going to run out there every game.

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#47 Twinsoholic

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Posted 21 August 2018 - 03:16 PM

What do you all think about the Twins trying to trade for lefty starter Matthew Boyd from the Tigers. He has less hits than innings pitched, and strikes out about 8 per 9 innings. His fastball hits about 94, and he has good control. 

 

Berrios

Gibson

Boyd

Pineda

Mejia/Odorizzi/Romero

 

What would the rebuilding Tigers want for Boyd? Boyd would be a definite improvement over Odorizzi and perhaps equal or better than Pineda as well.


#48 Sconnie

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Posted 21 August 2018 - 05:29 PM

The Twins should contend - Barring injury with A to F Grade:

Starters (B+)
Certain Starters :
Gibson and Berrios
Probable Startera:
Pineda and Odorizzi
Competition for remaining Starter(s)
Romero, Gonsalves, Slegers, Stewart

Certain Relief Pitchers B-):
Hildenberger, Rogers, Reed and one or two FAs

Likely Relief Pitchers:
Moya, May, Magill

Competition:
Busenitz, and many others.

Catcher:©
Mitch Garver and Jason Castro

DH (C+)
Competition: Tyler Austin, Kennys Vargas (very good recently), possible free agent.

Infield (B+)
Certain:Starters
Mauer (will be resigned), Sano, Polanco
Second Base (in order of likelihood):
FA, Forsythe or Adrianza
Utility:
Forsythe, Adrianza

Outfield (who knows to A):
Certain: Rosario'
Probable: Kepler and Buxton
Possible: FA, Cave, Wade, Granite

Manager:
Almost Certain: Molitor (one more year then likely to retire)

Certainly a probably, contending team, but far from the 1927 Yankees. I know many fans hate patience but much talent is in the 2-3 years away category. I hope the Twins don't block their progression with too many FAs signed to long-term contracts.

Wait... Mauer, free agent at the end of the season is a certainty while Kepler, under team control for 3 more seasons and going through Arbitration for the first time this offseason is not a certainty?

#49 Sconnie

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Posted 21 August 2018 - 05:37 PM

I keep seeing the Twins need another starting pitcher, which confuses me a bit.
I like depth as much as the next person, but if you keep Gibson, they have Berrios and Romero, Pineda ,Odorizzi Gonzo and a bunch of prospects fighting for two spots, which as we all know means that Pineda and Odorizzi will get the first shot and probably for a while. Leaving all the guys taking up 40 man roster spots in the minors.
IMO, unless they move Gibson I don't see the need for a starting pitcher, unless that starter is an established very top of the rotation guy. Which I think might require trading a few prospects.

agreed with Nicksaviking, need to improve the front of the rotation. Pineda could, and if the FO were to make a big move and Pineda looks like the Pineda of old, could become the best of the bunch.... BUT... Pineda has just as high of a likelihood of failing miserably.

Also, the median baseball team trots out 10 different starters in a season and at least one a year sends out 13+ without counting the reliever bullpenning situation. Superior teams have the triple A depth that when they get to 8-10 don’t put up the inning and a third and 5 runs like we’ve been seeing with our own versions.

Minor league depth in the rotation is critical

#50 Riverbrian

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Posted 21 August 2018 - 06:57 PM

 

Sure, that group is an improvement on what we typically see around here, but that group can't hold a candle to what Houston, Cleveland and Boston are going to run out there every game.

 

Yeah... but the cool thing is that they don't have to hold a candle to what Houston, Cleveland and Boston are going to run out there every game. 

 

The game is not played on paper. 

 

I get the concept... Chris Sale pitches for the Red Sox. The Astros are stacked arms with reputations. But somewhere along the way... life happens. 

 

The Astros won the world series in 2017. Here are the guys who got them there in order of games started.

1. Mike Fiers (28 Starts) with a 5.22 ERA in 2017. 

2. Charlie Morton (25 Starts) - Astros fans didn't even know that Morton was still in baseball when he was acquired. 

3. Dallas Kuechel (23 Starts) - OK.. He's good but he missed about 10 starts on the DL

4. Lance McCullers (22 Starts) - Young Sexy name with an Average 4.25 ERA. 

5. Brad Peacock (21 starts) - He was pulled out of the bullpen to fill in. He was awesome but he was middle reliever going into the season. 

 

This rotation wasn't great on paper but they kept the team in ball games. The Bullpen held serve and the offense hit the ball and kept them in contention and they added Verlander in August. 

 

Now in 2018... They Add Gerrit Cole, to the added Justin Verlander, Joining the talented Dallas Kuechel and improving Lance McCullers and a Charlie Morton that everybody suddenly views differently.

 

And yes... You look at that rotation and go... WOW... That's a Rotation and they are great but nobody was ready to say that in 2017.  

 

And with that great rotation, they are currently tied with the Oakland A's. Whose rotation is Manaea, Mengden, Cahill, Edwin Jackson, Montas and Brett Anderson. 

 

You gotta love baseball, because holding a candle to anyone isn't required.:)

 

 

 

 

 

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#51 Tomj14

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Posted 22 August 2018 - 06:23 AM

 

Sure, that group is an improvement on what we typically see around here, but that group can't hold a candle to what Houston, Cleveland and Boston are going to run out there every game.

Isn't that what I said, they don't need any starters that aren't top tier? If they go out and get starting pitchers they have to do something about the minor league pitchers on the 40 man.

Starters expected to be on the 40 in 2019.

Jose Berrios
Kyle Gibson
Jake Odorizzi
Michael Pineda
Fernando Romero
Lewis Thorpe
Kohl Stewart
Aaron Slegers
Chase De Jong
Stephen Gonsalves
Zack Littell
Adalberto Mejia


#52 SQUIRREL

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Posted 22 August 2018 - 07:07 AM

I think we know who the 2B and the C are - Forsythe and Castro. You are totally right on the needed pitchers. That's where we should spend the money. The real truth is that even if we do that our ability to contend next year depends on Rosario staying the same, continued development/improvement from the young core - Sano, Polanco, Kepler and, dare I say it, Buxton(?) -and some significant further development/break out year from at least one of Garver, Cave and Austin. That's a lot of ifs. 
 
We can cover some of those ifs that don't come true with better pitching.We have about 2/3 of a good staff right now. Add a top 3 starter to the 3 proven starters we have and one of the young guys (Romero?), and add a lock down late inning reliever and we might have a pitching staff that can cover for bad years and slower than hoped for development in the field. That's the direction I would take. Spend the money on pitching, not on hitting.


Your first sentence is what makes us losers next year. If we go into the season with Forsythe and Castro we won’t come close to the playoffs. If the FO is okay with those pieces and do nothing better than that, the FO does not want to contend. And yes, our core needs to improve. I’m less worried about starting pitching than I am about the team behind it and the BP.
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#53 LA VIkes Fan

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Posted 22 August 2018 - 09:17 AM

i can't agree with you there. Castro may only be a league average hitter, but that's a step up from Wilson. Forsythe is a competent MLB 2B - different than Dozier, but still good, and I'm not a fan of the age 32 Dozier. I don't think those two guys sink the team. They're only complimentary guys but that's all there is out there unless we can get Machado. I love me some Eduardo Escobar, but he isn't a middle infielder, he's part of a 4 man group manning 1B, 3B and Dh with Sano, Austin and Mauer if he comes back. 

 

The real problem is the lack of anyone else. Gordon is not showing signs of being ready and it's too early for Lewis. Who do we replace Forsythe with? Dozier coming back?Not my favorite idea but I guess livable if Molitor would just stop hitting him lead off. Dozier doesn't really improve the team much. Machado? Love it, but just can't see it happening for a whole bunch of reasons. There are no catchers to get unless we want Wilson Ramos and he's over 30 and hurt a lot. Grandal will be re-signed by the Dodgers. 

 

My theory is that the lineup will be good enough to contend for the AL Central with Forsythe as an everyday player and Castro backing up GarverIF the pitching staff gets an upgrade. It seems to me we have a better shot of signing a Patrick Corbin, Garrett Richards (talk about injury risk), or Dallas Kuechel to start, and add a solid BP piece like Allen, Herrera,Rosenthal, Soria, or Robertson, than we do a signing a Bryce Harper or Machado type to upgrade the lineup. 

 

I'm open to an upgrade, but who else is there? 

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#54 SQUIRREL

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Posted 22 August 2018 - 12:48 PM

i can't agree with you there. Castro may only be a league average hitter, but that's a step up from Wilson. Forsythe is a competent MLB 2B - different than Dozier, but still good, and I'm not a fan of the age 32 Dozier. I don't think those two guys sink the team. They're only complimentary guys but that's all there is out there unless we can get Machado. I love me some Eduardo Escobar, but he isn't a middle infielder, he's part of a 4 man group manning 1B, 3B and Dh with Sano, Austin and Mauer if he comes back.

The real problem is the lack of anyone else. Gordon is not showing signs of being ready and it's too early for Lewis. Who do we replace Forsythe with? Dozier coming back? Not my favorite idea but I guess livable if Molitor would just stop hitting him lead off. Dozier doesn't really improve the team much. Machado? Love it, but just can't see it happening for a whole bunch of reasons. There are no catchers to get unless we want Wilson Ramos and he's over 30 and hurt a lot. Grandal will be re-signed by the Dodgers.

My theory is that the lineup will be good enough to contend for the AL Central with Forsythe as an everyday player and Castro backing up Garver IF the pitching staff gets an upgrade. It seems to me we have a better shot of signing a Patrick Corbin, Garrett Richards (talk about injury risk), or Dallas Kuechel to start, and add a solid BP piece like Allen, Herrera, Rosenthal, Soria, or Robertson, than we do a signing a Bryce Harper or Machado type to upgrade the lineup.

I'm open to an upgrade, but who else is there?


Sign Machado and move Polanco to 2nd.
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#55 strumdatjaguar

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Posted 22 August 2018 - 02:46 PM

 

agreed with Nicksaviking, need to improve the front of the rotation. Pineda could, and if the FO were to make a big move and Pineda looks like the Pineda of old, could become the best of the bunch.... BUT... Pineda has just as high of a likelihood of failing miserably.

Also, the median baseball team trots out 10 different starters in a season and at least one a year sends out 13+ without counting the reliever bullpenning situation. Superior teams have the triple A depth that when they get to 8-10 don’t put up the inning and a third and 5 runs like we’ve been seeing with our own versions.

Minor league depth in the rotation is critical

Because of the wealth of talent in the outfield, I would not be surprised if Kepler was traded.I would be surprised if the Twins did not sign Mauer/


#56 yarnivek1972

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Posted 22 August 2018 - 02:57 PM

Because of the wealth of talent in the outfield, I would not be surprised if Kepler was traded. I would be surprised if the Twins did not sign Mauer/


So that leaves Rosario and ????

You really counting on Buxton to be a star? I don’t think anyone else is. I think the BEST case scenario at this point is that he hits well enough to actually hold onto a regular job.
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#57 Sconnie

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Posted 22 August 2018 - 09:37 PM

Because of the wealth of talent in the outfield, I would not be surprised if Kepler was traded. I would be surprised if the Twins did not sign Mauer/

you answered a different question than the quotation, but it was my question. Thanks for answering.

Buxton, Wade, and Cave are unproven commodities. In 2018 the 7th option for OF will end up being one of the better contributors. It’s likely Granite is never even an MLB 4th OF, and Buxton has hit or stayed healthy enough to be counted on. I’m fine with Austin as the 5th outfielder. He shouldn’t be a starter by default.
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#58 Hosken Bombo Disco

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Posted 22 August 2018 - 10:06 PM

Buxton could still be a star, depending on one's definition. All Star game, in my opinion yes absolutely. He's had a terrible season; anybody can sit here today and call him a bust. Hicks looked terrible too, and now he's playing in center every day and batting third in the Yankees lineup while Judge is out, with an OPS well over 800.

Buxton should be the starting CF from day one next season. He can bat 7th or 8th, right ahead of Castro (never thought I'd miss Castro this bad!). I'm not sure why he's still in Rochester. I think the Front Office wants Molly to give some other guys some looks. Understandable.

#59 Borealis

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Posted 22 August 2018 - 10:06 PM

Who would have guessed Sano and Buxton would crap the bed at the same time? All but 1 or 2 of our writers predicted we would make the play-offs. Going into next season, it will be the same.
 
The core of 4, plus Rosario and Polanco are still here. Our farm system will be in the top 5, and the new regime seemingly has no qualms about moving prospects. We have as much money available as any team in baseball and I have no doubt they will spend, before the fat lady sings.


A little off topic, but at what point is Rosario deemed core? He’s already lived in the shadows for years do to scout projections, draft positions, signing bonuses, prospect rankings, writer and fan expectations, etc. But even after the past two MLB seasons, the dude is still an afterthought. SMH.

#60 DocBauer

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Posted 22 August 2018 - 10:14 PM

I've always considered subjective as more of a personal opinion so not really. Mauer on the DL to Jimmer is going to subjectively hurt the team and Mauer on the DL according to Chief will subjectively not hurt the team as much.
 
The formula is based on pre-season projections so the subjective part is weather those projections carry any weight with you or I. 
 
But Keep in mind that if pe-season projections were used in the algorithm. Buxton on the DL is going to move the needle upward based on his projections. When in reality... Subjectively, I say that Buxton on the Disabled List based on his performance was probably a net gain. 
 
If you have issues with the system, that's ok with me because I might as well... but you can still look at each team individually and realize that the Twins were not beset by more injuries than others. 
 
Injuries are not a viable excuse... our injuries were routine and the front office will get no pass from me because routine injuries need to be planned for. They simply happen every year and you don't know who they are going to happen to. 
 
The Dodgers are still in contention despite losing almost their entire starting rotation. 6 starters spent time on the DL... as many as four of them were on the DL at the same time. Plus they lost almost two months of Justin Turner, plus Corey Seager for almost the entire season, Plus almost a month of Puig, Forsythe and Utley. The Dodgers are still in it because they had sufficient depth to replace those guys... and the Dodgers didn't buy that sufficient depth. They went out and acquired it cheaply and nurtured it. 
 
The Nationals (in my opinion) could legitimately use injuries as an excuse. The Entire Bullpen has been on the DL. Besides Harper, they lost their entire starting OF plus backups for a stretch which forced them to call up Soto sooner than they wanted to. Murphy was gone for most of the year. Zimmerman, Weiters, Strausburg have all spend over two months on the DL. Plus Stints by Rendon and Matt Adams. 
 
In my opinion... it was not injuries that killed the Twins this year. It was the performance of the healthy. 
 
If the Front Office said to themselves. Morrison, Castro, Mauer, Dozier, Sano, Escobar, Rosario, Buxton and Kepler. We got our 9. Let's find some whatevers to round out the roster. They don't get a pass from me because just looking at any previous season should tell them that they need viable replacements.
 
If the front office determined that Grossman was good enough to make the 25 man roster, yet still determined that Grossman wasn't good enough to replace Morrison when he is hitting .150 for two months... They don't get a pass from me because they selected Grossman.  
 
If anyone thinks that injuries were a reasonable excuse. I will disagree.:)


Brian, this is one time where we will agree and disagree at the same time.

I don't follow the "rest of MLB and rosters" the way I used to simply due to life demands. So I'm probably talking out my backside here. While I don't and won't even pretend to know the names of anyone involved, I am informed enough to know the Dodgers have a top system. And you mentioned depth and nurturing that depth to overcome injuries. And using LA, in this example, is where I debate the injuries to the Twins in 2018.

The best talent in our system is AA and below, with a few exceptions. But even those exceptions, Gonsalves, Littell and Gordon, began the season in AA. IMHO, Littell was promoted too quickly, Gonsalves later than he should have been. (And I think we can both agree auditions in the pen have been botched. How do you find the next Rogers and Hildenberger if you don't give them a chance?)

It is my "guess" the Dodgers were more flush with available talent ready for their shot than the Twins had available. Like him or not, a healthy Granite might have helped in the OF. We got lucky or smart with Cave. But who else was ready in AAA to help?

And this is the one area where I think we can both agree the FO, for all their attempts to improve the 2018 roster, really blew it.

Maybe we tried to keep him and he simply wanted a new opportunity, but good wou,d Goodrum look now as a solid bench player? I was very "meh" on the signing of Wilson but felt he might be OK for a few games here and there. But compared to someone like Hicks, also with Detroit, who we had a year ago, ugh! I think about guys in the past like Tyner and Buscher, who could actually play a little bit, and look at what Rochester has trotted out most days this season, and I find myself wondering what the FO was thinking? We honestly didn't have the finances and fore-sight to find some useful AAAA guys to sign with opportunity?

I think injuries, suspension and poor performances crippled the Twins this season. Not entirely their fault. Who could have predicted so many issues with Sano, Buxton, Dozier, Polanco, Santana, Morrison etc. But not planning better was a huge oversight!

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