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Contention 2019?

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#21 Mike Sixel

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Posted 20 August 2018 - 01:28 PM

I'm assuming those are based on projected WAR, which can be subjective no?


No less than listing only twins' problems, without looking at any other team, I'd guess. How else would one measure this impact?

It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 


#22 yarnivek1972

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Posted 20 August 2018 - 01:39 PM

https://www.rosterre...d-list-tracker/

Take a look... Injuries happen to every team. Multiple Injuries... Lots of Injuries every single year. The Twins went through nothing like the Nationals or Dodgers suffered through. What the Twins experienced this year was routine and it wasn't the injuries that sunk us... It was terrible performance from the healthy that they couldn't survive.

Actually... Our injuries made us better at times.


Red Sox rank 8 th on that list of injury impact. They might win 110 games. Something that has been done twice in the era of 162 game seasons.
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#23 SF Twins Fan

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Posted 20 August 2018 - 01:47 PM

 

https://www.rosterre...d-list-tracker/

 

Take a look... Injuries happen to every team. Multiple Injuries... Lots of Injuries every single year. The Twins went through nothing like the Nationals or Dodgers suffered through. What the Twins experienced this year was routine and it wasn't the injuries that sunk us... It was terrible performance from the healthy that they couldn't survive. 

 

Actually... Our injuries made us better at times. 

 

So it's off of project preseason value. Like I said it's pretty subjective. 


#24 Mike Sixel

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Posted 20 August 2018 - 01:48 PM

 

So it's off of project preseason value. Like I said it's pretty subjective. 

 

compared to what? How else would you do this?

 

BTW, put in Polanco and Sano, take out Escobar......

It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 


#25 SF Twins Fan

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Posted 20 August 2018 - 01:55 PM

 

compared to what? How else would you do this?

 

BTW, put in Polanco and Sano, take out Escobar......

 

I'm not sure how to. My main response was regarding the OP's comment about championship teams have the depth to win even with injuries. At some point even the best teams can't overcome them and I think the Dodgers and Nationals are a perfect example. Coming into the season most people would say those two teams had legit chances to be WS contenders and with the injuries they have sustained they might not even make the playoffs. They're in the same spot as the Twins.

Edited by SF Twins Fan, 20 August 2018 - 01:57 PM.

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#26 Dman

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Posted 20 August 2018 - 01:58 PM

Pitching is still a weak spot for this team, but if they get up and over that issue, I'm looking at you bullpen for all those one run loses, then yeah I like this teams chances next year.In 2020 and beyond there are more high end prospects to push this team further.The future is so bright we better all buy shades before next year.

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#27 Doomtints

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Posted 20 August 2018 - 01:58 PM

In this division, as long as the team can flirt with .500 they have a chance. Is this what we really want, however? I'd like to see this team win a playoff series someday, not just make the playoffs.

 

Winning a playoff series seems like a much tougher hill to climb than making the playoffs.

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#28 yarnivek1972

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Posted 20 August 2018 - 02:02 PM

I'm not sure how to. My main response was regarding the OP's comment about championship teams have the depth to win even with injuries. At some point even the best teams can't overcome them and I think the Dodgers and Nationals are a perfect example. Coming into the season most people would say those two teams had legit chances to be WS contenders and with the injuries they have sustained they might not even make the playoffs.

There is a breaking point of course.

The Twins haven’t come close to it relative to the rest of the league. Not even relative to the league’s contenders. Of the AL teams with solid playoff aspirations only the Astros and Mariners have been impacted by injuries to a lesser degree than the Twins.

Edited by yarnivek1972, 20 August 2018 - 02:20 PM.


#29 Dave The Dastardly

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Posted 20 August 2018 - 02:21 PM

Can someone send me some of that stuff ya'll are smoking 'cause I'd sure like to believe the Twins will be World Series contenders in 2019, too. I'm with stringer bell, I'm too old to wait for another lengthy Twins rebuild. Been doing that for almost 30 years now. If the Head Umpire had asked the Twins instead of Noah to build the Ark we'd all be shark poop on the bottom of the ocean.

 

 

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#30 DocBauer

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Posted 20 August 2018 - 02:42 PM

Is anyone saying buy a team? I'm not sure what that line means. They have a few openings, they should try to close at least a couple externally.


It is often mentioned how much money is coming off the books. My statement was that is nice, but should be used to augment the roster with a key piece of two and that attempting to "buy a roster" never seems to work.
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#31 yarnivek1972

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Posted 20 August 2018 - 02:43 PM

It is often mentioned how much money is coming off the books. My statement was that is nice, but should be used to augment the roster with a key piece of two and that attempting to "buy a roster" never seems to work.

Except for the Marlins.

Years ago anyway.

Edited by yarnivek1972, 20 August 2018 - 02:44 PM.


#32 drivlikejehu

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Posted 20 August 2018 - 04:22 PM

The Twins problem for 2019 is that there are big question marks around their core talents. They can't really count on Sano and Buxton to be impact guys. Rosario is one . . . Polanco is solid but not a star . . . no ace starter, no dominant reliever. 

 

Depth can definitely get them to 85 wins, with some lucky bounces 90 wins, but I don't think there's anything they can do to become an elite AL team next year and really make noise in the playoffs.

 

For that to happen, the Twins need some more of their young players (prospects included) to develop into above average or star-level guys.

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#33 Rosterman

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Posted 20 August 2018 - 04:46 PM

They have the makings of a fine team if they figure out what to do with Mauer, where to play Sano, and fill the infield holes in some ways. Rotation prospectslook strong and you SHOULD pitch them for the final 30 games over Santana...go with a six-man rotation, split-games, whatever. See so you can get them to work in the off-season.

 

2019 looks to be a repeat. Cleveland will be strong. Maybe they will invest and become STRONGEST in the league. Who knows.

 

But the Twins question marks for 2018 are also question marks for 2019 and will get another chance. They will have a lot of money to spend and could grab some temporary roster slot fillers (like they did this year) and NOT have them all kinda not play to the potential that they showed in the past (Rodney was good, but made one nervous).

 

But I wouldn't giveaway the future right now for modest success in 2019. There are lots of promising faces at A+ and A ball (sdly a couple of years away) and some at AA ball. But that isn't until 2020.

 

 

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#34 jimmer

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Posted 20 August 2018 - 05:47 PM

I thought we played over our heads last year, so I expected us to lose more games this year than last year and not make the playoffs this year. And, as it stands right now, I can't see any reason to think they will be a contender next year. I don't think the talent is there to compete with the teams ahead of us.

Edited by jimmer, 20 August 2018 - 05:48 PM.

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#35 Riverbrian

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Posted 20 August 2018 - 06:19 PM

 

So it's off of project preseason value. Like I said it's pretty subjective. 

 

I've always considered subjective as more of a personal opinion so not really. Mauer on the DL to Jimmer is going to subjectively hurt the team and Mauer on the DL according to Chief will subjectively not hurt the team as much.

 

The formula is based on pre-season projections so the subjective part is weather those projections carry any weight with you or I. 

 

But Keep in mind that if pe-season projections were used in the algorithm. Buxton on the DL is going to move the needle upward based on his projections. When in reality... Subjectively, I say that Buxton on the Disabled List based on his performance was probably a net gain. 

 

If you have issues with the system, that's ok with me because I might as well... but you can still look at each team individually and realize that the Twins were not beset by more injuries than others. 

 

Injuries are not a viable excuse... our injuries were routine and the front office will get no pass from me because routine injuries need to be planned for. They simply happen every year and you don't know who they are going to happen to. 

 

The Dodgers are still in contention despite losing almost their entire starting rotation. 6 starters spent time on the DL... as many as four of them were on the DL at the same time. Plus they lost almost two months of Justin Turner, plus Corey Seager for almost the entire season, Plus almost a month of Puig, Forsythe and Utley. The Dodgers are still in it because they had sufficient depth to replace those guys... and the Dodgers didn't buy that sufficient depth. They went out and acquired it cheaply and nurtured it. 

 

The Nationals (in my opinion) could legitimately use injuries as an excuse. The Entire Bullpen has been on the DL. Besides Harper, they lost their entire starting OF plus backups for a stretch which forced them to call up Soto sooner than they wanted to. Murphy was gone for most of the year. Zimmerman, Weiters, Strausburg have all spend over two months on the DL. Plus Stints by Rendon and Matt Adams. 

 

In my opinion... it was not injuries that killed the Twins this year. It was the performance of the healthy. 

 

If the Front Office said to themselves. Morrison, Castro, Mauer, Dozier, Sano, Escobar, Rosario, Buxton and Kepler. We got our 9. Let's find some whatevers to round out the roster. They don't get a pass from me because just looking at any previous season should tell them that they need viable replacements.

 

If the front office determined that Grossman was good enough to make the 25 man roster, yet still determined that Grossman wasn't good enough to replace Morrison when he is hitting .150 for two months... They don't get a pass from me because they selected Grossman.  

 

If anyone thinks that injuries were a reasonable excuse. I will disagree.:)

 

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#36 ewen21

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Posted 20 August 2018 - 06:24 PM

This "Buxton was hurt so we should discount 2018" stuff does not wash with me.

 

Part of his issue is all the injuries!He took a step back AND he was injured all season. Not good and not good.

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#37 mngopherguy

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Posted 20 August 2018 - 07:51 PM

I still think the boatload of money to spend will be less than what most people believe.  

 

This team needs a 2B and C with a bench bat.They also need at least one top 3 rotation starter, a solid 7-8 inning reliever and a closer.Then they might contend.  

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#38 TheLeviathan

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Posted 20 August 2018 - 09:06 PM

They have so much money, I wonder how they can possibly spend it all.I hope they are very creative, take bad contracts, and work to find ways to add assets.

 

This team should be aiming to compete, but they're going to have to push the right buttons to do it.Hopefully that starts with Machado or Harper.Go big.

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#39 nicksaviking

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Posted 21 August 2018 - 11:20 AM

Geez, just looking at Addison Reed's Brooks Baseball profile and it looks like he's lost nearly 2 MPH on his FB and 2.5 MPH from his slider since the start of the season. 

 

If they want to rely on him next year I think the front office needs to tell Molitor that Reed's appearances are going to be capped at 1 maybe 2 a week from here on out. Looking at his past years he's never had in-season declines like this. This doesn't look good, give this guy lots of rest, don't blow out his arm just to chase a .500 record.

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#40 LA VIkes Fan

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Posted 21 August 2018 - 11:32 AM

 

I still think the boatload of money to spend will be less than what most people believe.  

 

This team needs a 2B and C with a bench bat.They also need at least one top 3 rotation starter, a solid 7-8 inning reliever and a closer.Then they might contend.  

I think we know who the 2B and the C are - Forsythe and Castro. You are totally right on the needed pitchers. That's where we should spend the money. The real truth is that even if we do that our ability to contend next year depends on Rosario staying the same, continued development/improvement from the young core - Sano, Polanco, Kepler and, dare I say it, Buxton(?) -and some significant further development/break out year from at least one of Garver, Cave and Austin. That's a lot of ifs. 

 

We can cover some of those ifs that don't come true with better pitching.We have about 2/3 of a good staff right now. Add a top 3 starter to the 3 proven starters we have and one of the young guys (Romero?), and add a lock down late inning reliever and we might have a pitching staff that can cover for bad years and slower than hoped for development in the field. That's the direction I would take. Spend the money on pitching, not on hitting. 




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