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Article: MIN 5, DET 4: Late Rosario Homer Lifts Twins to Elusive One-Run Victory

eddie rosario trevor hildenberger jake odorizzi
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#21 Tom Froemming

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Posted 21 August 2018 - 08:03 AM

 

Or it could make little or no difference because he is missing by so much it makes no difference. What do you truly believe is the difference between how many extra strikes Odorizzi might have gotten by having more pitches caught by Wilson? I think that it is as negligible as the subjective pitch calling that was your original criticism of Garver.

Maybe, maybe not. It depends on the situation. You miss a strike when you're up 0-2 with the bases empty and two outs, no big deal. You miss a strike when you really need it, that could lead to a big inning. 

 

If you think he doesn't throw enough strikes, consider this:

 

Zone%

39.4-Gibson (second-lowest among the 70 qualified starters)

44.8-Odorizzi (15th)

46.4-Berrios (23rd)

 

I also think, as a flyball pitcher, Odorizzi could have benefited from the expected outfield alignment of Rosario-Buxton-Kepler. Hopefully those guys will be behind him for the majority of next season.

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#22 Don Walcott

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Posted 21 August 2018 - 02:25 PM

 

Maybe, maybe not. It depends on the situation. You miss a strike when you're up 0-2 with the bases empty and two outs, no big deal. You miss a strike when you really need it, that could lead to a big inning. 

 

If you think he doesn't throw enough strikes, consider this:

 

Zone%

39.4-Gibson (second-lowest among the 70 qualified starters)

44.8-Odorizzi (15th)

46.4-Berrios (23rd)

 

I also think, as a flyball pitcher, Odorizzi could have benefited from the expected outfield alignment of Rosario-Buxton-Kepler. Hopefully those guys will be behind him for the majority of next season.

I was actually pointing out that Odorizzi makes a lot of non-competitive pitches that cannot be framed as a strike.But I appreciate and am a bit surprised by the zone %.

 

Overall, the statistics are very close between Garver and Wilson catching, even though Garver doesn't get the benefit of catching Berrios and Gibson as much, while he's caught the vast majority of Lynn's and Odorizzi's games. ERA is 4.42 with Garver and 4.16 with Wilson. OPS is .756 pitching to Garver and .735 pitching to Wilson. I suspect those numbers would be fairly well flipped if Garver caught Berrios and Gibson more and Wilson had caught Lynn and Odorizzi more. Garver's numbers are also artificially jacked up by catching all of Santana's starts this year -- 8.03 ERA and 1.038 OPS in 5 games. And while the splits for the individual pitchers are a small sample size, only Berrios and Odorizzi (who has only been caught twice by Wilson) do better with Wilson behind the plate. Gibson has done far better in his 7 starts with Garver than in his 16 with Wilson.

 

So I think it's not clear that having Wilson catch is better for the pitchers than having Garver catch, and there's a good argument for the opposite.




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