You inspired me to take a look back at what could have been. I think it is fair to say the Twins blew it big time with Jay. And yet Nola was a college pitcher, and he looks like the best pick from the year before. And 2013...the Mark Appel draft. just take a look. Yuckos.
First, how the teams that "scored" instead of the Twins fared in those three drafts.
Boston: Trey Ball/Michael Chavis/Benintendi
Phillies: Crawford/Nola/Cornelius Randolph
Kansas City: Hunter Dozier (Manaea-Supp.)/Finnegan/Ashe Russell
Picking shortly after the Twins in 2013 at #7, the Red Sox passed on a variety of useful players to pick Trey Ball. Like the Twins--and EVERY other team in MLB--they also passed on Manaea and Judge, who were taken in the comp round. Even the Yankees passed on Judge, to take Eric Jagielo, a shortstop out of Notre Dame. With their pick directly after Judge, they passed on Manaea to take Ian Clarkin.
The Phillies took J.P. Crawford at #16--pretty good pick, I guess, although at this point if he has Trevor Plouffe's career he'd probably be happy.
Dozier, at #8, signed for well under slot, and to date is at -1.3 WAR as an MLBer.
Overall, the 2013 draft looks awful for everybody except the Cubs with Bryant. I'm not giving the Yankees too much credit for their 1 out of 3 find in Judge. Click on the link and see for yourself what that draft looks like.
The Phillies got Nola at #7, right after the Twins took Gordon and the Mariners took Alex Jackson. Aiken and Kolek were taken before him as well. Man, just think how good the Astros would be if they hadn't botched the Appel and Aiken picks--Bryant and...well, maybe they got lucky after all on the Aiken botch, turning around and landing Bregman and Kyle Tucker.
The Royals got Finnegan at #17. The only other notable players in the next 20 picks are Justus Sheffield, Kopech, and Derek Fisher at 31,33, and 37.
Boston took Chavis at 26, passing on Sheffield, and of course, Kopech the first time.
Oops-Just noticed Matt Chapman went 25th, three picks after the vaunted Dodgers player development team passed on him for pitcher Grant Holmes. Maybe the Red Sox were sitting on him and just missed. I'm sure they were.
This draft looks pretty good, and to add insult to injury--picks 5-10: Kyle Tucker-Jay-Benintendi-Carson Fulmer--Ian Happ--(and I'll just throw in Cornelius Randolph.). At the top was Swanson, Bregman, and Brendan Rogers, with Dillon Tate, who has been traded for Carlos Beltran and Zach Britton so far.
Boston got Beni. The Phillies took the aforementioned Randolph at #10, passing on later 1st rounders Kolby Allard and Walker Buehler. The Royals took Ashe Russell at 21, also passing on Buehler by two picks. Mike Soroka was taken at #28.
The draft is such a crapshoot. Just take some time scrolling through those lists of players. When you look at that Kohl Stewart draft, I think we should be happy to have a guy make the big leagues at all, even if it is brief. Benintendi I'll concede, but it is pretty revisionist to suggest the Twins should have passed on Stewart to take Judge or Manaea. 25+ slots before they went.
I got a bit off topic here I think. This post should probably go in the Stewart thread, but maybe it is a useful reminder here as well. Here is a list where you can check out the 15 players that went ahead of Kirilloff: https://en.wikipedia..._Baseball_draft