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Article: Twins Minor League Report (8/9): Stephen Gonsalves Strikes Out Nine

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#21 jokin

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Posted 10 August 2018 - 09:24 AM

 

He had one good game and some walks.He was gifted a TD Hitter of the Day Award when there were at least 3-4 more deserving candidates.

 

For August:.161/.257/.161/.418 11.4% BB-Rate 22.8% K-Rate

 

Solid BB-Rate, but otherwise yuck

 

Meanwhile, Arraez is right on Gordon's tailgate at AA

 

For August:.434/.480/.478/.958 8% BB-Rate 0% K-Rate

 

Let's watch that sample size over the rest of the month for these two players.

 

My money would be on Arraez passing Gordon on the prospect board sans bias. For some, I think he already has.

 

Gordon has the pedigree and the bonus money.

 

Have you seen Arraez? He's only a little more inspiring athletically than Willians Astudillo and even more diminutive, he has a bum knee and is not a MLB SS, maybe not even a 2B or 3B.

 

Don't get me wrong, I hope he's the 2nd coming of Altuve, because this kid can definitely hit. I just don't see him passing Gordon on the prospect board- Gordon will get the first shot to stick. Gordon's problem appears to be long-term stamina, as his 1st half stats are Top 100 worthy- perhaps there's a diet deficiency or metabolic malady?

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#22 Mike Sixel

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Posted 10 August 2018 - 09:39 AM

 

He had one good game and some walks.He was gifted a TD Hitter of the Day Award when there were at least 3-4 more deserving candidates.

 

For August:.161/.257/.161/.418 11.4% BB-Rate 22.8% K-Rate

 

Solid BB-Rate, but otherwise yuck

 

Meanwhile, Arraez is right on Gordon's tailgate at AA

 

For August:.434/.480/.478/.958 8% BB-Rate 0% K-Rate

 

Let's watch that sample size over the rest of the month for these two players.

 

My money would be on Arraez passing Gordon on the prospect board sans bias. For some, I think he already has.

 

There isn't a national publication that even has them close, is there? I mean, FG has Arraez 31st on their list. I doubt that is some kind of bias.....

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I remain hopeful on Buxton and Sano.....but I'd not bet the franchise on them.


#23 JLease

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Posted 10 August 2018 - 09:44 AM

 

Why isn't Gonsalves going to MN? Looks like time for a few more movements upward for key players throughout the system.

 

Because he's still walking too many guys? He's on pace for a career high in BB/9. Considering how many guys come up and nibble even more in their first spin at MLB, could be a recipe for disaster. i still expect him to get a look in Sept, but let's not pretend he doesn't have things to work on.

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#24 Kelly Vance

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Posted 10 August 2018 - 10:12 AM

Would like to see Gonsalves and Jake Reed come up. These guys have nothing more to prove at AAA. 


#25 amjgt

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Posted 10 August 2018 - 10:23 AM

 

Why isn't Gonsalves going to MN? Looks like time for a few more movements upward for key players throughout the system.

 

This is why:

http://www.espn.com/...minnesota-twins


#26 108Stitches

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Posted 10 August 2018 - 10:36 AM

Rankings sure seem to have a hell of a lot more to do with how much money they have invested in someone rather than actual long term numbers. Bonuses make the media
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#27 Mike Sixel

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Posted 10 August 2018 - 10:46 AM

 

Rankings sure seem to have a hell of a lot more to do with how much money they have invested in someone rather than actual long term numbers. Bonuses make the media

 

Or scouting, or physical ability, or lots of things.....most of the online publications have guys and gals that see the people in person, and they don't just rely on stats. They also talk to scouts from every organization over and over. I'd guess that there is some bias for original thoughts, but it disappears over time. After all, a month or two of data shouldn't change your opinion on someone, if that opinion is based on several years of data, unless there is a clear process change.

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I remain hopeful on Buxton and Sano.....but I'd not bet the franchise on them.


#28 slash129

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Posted 10 August 2018 - 10:56 AM

 

Or scouting, or physical ability, or lots of things.....most of the online publications have guys and gals that see the people in person, and they don't just rely on stats. They also talk to scouts from every organization over and over. I'd guess that there is some bias for original thoughts, but it disappears over time. After all, a month or two of data shouldn't change your opinion on someone, if that opinion is based on several years of data, unless there is a clear process change.

 

They can get lazy though. Jim Callis literally wrote that Gordon is playing well on August 2nd. When I see stuff like that, I tend to lean more toward the sentiment that draft position or bonus money create bias in the rankings.

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#29 108Stitches

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Posted 10 August 2018 - 10:58 AM

Or scouting, or physical ability, or lots of things.....most of the online publications have guys and gals that see the people in person, and they don't just rely on stats. They also talk to scouts from every organization over and over. I'd guess that there is some bias for original thoughts, but it disappears over time. After all, a month or two of data shouldn't change your opinion on someone, if that opinion is based on several years of data, unless there is a clear process change.


Sure that plays a huge role, but let’s not be naïve and pretend that media hype and bonus don’t play a role. Guys like Andrew Vasquez are nowhere on the radar, but he’s got better numbers than most relievers. Hell, Tyler Wells got knocked out of the top 30 and he has as good or better numbers than the top three rounds for 2016 except for Dakota Hudson. If he were a top round guy with a 2.90 career era and a 1.09 whip he would easily be top 100. This all stems from the comments above about Arraez vs Gordon. Nobody wants to admit that if they might’ve been wrong about Gordon. While Arraez IS getting some attention, to just brush off the notion that he should be above Gordon is just simply projection and wishful thinking, not actual statistics.

#30 laloesch

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Posted 10 August 2018 - 11:17 AM

What a shame we might now see Gonsalves this season in the major league rotation.The should have tried to have gotten him some experience this season so he could hit the ground running next year.


#31 Pitz

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Posted 10 August 2018 - 11:20 AM

Sure that plays a huge role, but let’s not be naïve and pretend that media hype and bonus don’t play a role. Guys like Andrew Vasquez are nowhere on the radar, but he’s got better numbers than most relievers. Hell, Tyler Wells got knocked out of the top 30 and he has as good or better numbers than the top three rounds for 2016 except for Dakota Hudson. If he were a top round guy with a 2.90 career era and a 1.09 whip he would easily be top 100. This all stems from the comments above about Arraez vs Gordon. Nobody wants to admit that if they might’ve been wrong about Gordon. While Arraez IS getting some attention, to just brush off the notion that he should be above Gordon is just simply projection and wishful thinking, not actual statistics.


Well if he had been a top round pick, there would have been a lot of good scouting reports to back that up and his current numbers would suggest those reports were correct. Now maybe, consensus is a bit slow to change its collective mind. But baseball is also a very difficult game to project and development is no easy task.
To his credit, Wells seems to have worked very hard to improve himself and given himself a better chance at success. We tend to look to rankings wanting to confirm our hopes about a player. Not sure if hope really needs confirmation.

Edited by Pitz, 10 August 2018 - 11:21 AM.

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#32 HrbekRules

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Posted 10 August 2018 - 11:25 AM

 

 

Gonsalves is on the 40 man.

 

http://m.mlb.com/min/roster/40-man/

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#33 108Stitches

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Posted 10 August 2018 - 11:31 AM

Well if he had been a top round pick, there would have been a lot of good scouting reports to back that up and his current numbers would suggest those reports were correct. Now maybe, consensus is a bit slow to change its collective mind. But baseball is also a very difficult game to project and development is no easy task.
To his credit, Wells seems to have worked very hard to improve himself and given himself a better chance at success. We tend to look to rankings wanting to confirm our hopes about a player. Not sure if hope really needs confirmation.

I agree with everything you said. I’d just like to see more attention in the league given to guys who are DOING the job instead of guys they keep wishing will eventually do it to validate their own predictions. That’s all I’m saying.

#34 Steve Penz

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Posted 10 August 2018 - 11:47 AM

 

Why isn't Gonsalves going to MN? Looks like time for a few more movements upward for key players throughout the system.

I feel this but he needs to cut down on walks.His stuff is not good enough to survive if he walks 4.9 ppl per game.  

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#35 strumdatjaguar

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Posted 10 August 2018 - 11:50 AM

 

Moderator's note: OK, I know no harm was intended, but let's go easy on making fun of Asian names please.

Moderator must make an exception to allow for the Bud and Lou reference that must be made every time a player named Hu is either playing 1B or makes it to !B (single, walk or whatever).

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#36 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 10 August 2018 - 01:14 PM

 

I feel this but he needs to cut down on walks.His stuff is not good enough to survive if he walks 4.9 ppl per game.  

 

That number has (I believe) been trending down. He struggled a lot with this when he first got called up. He's been much better in that area over the last month or two. I think he had to learn that AAA hitters are a bit more selective than the ones in AA. 

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#37 FormerMinnasotan

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Posted 10 August 2018 - 05:56 PM

I feel this but he needs to cut down on walks. His stuff is not good enough to survive if he walks 4.9 ppl per game.

Still we have nothing to play for might as well give as many MLB starts to Gonsalves as possible, especially with Odorizzi struggling to pitch 5 innings per start with a 4.50ish ERA.
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#38 mikelink45

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Posted 10 August 2018 - 10:01 PM

 

I see Stephen as a lock for a call-up by September 1 and am not going to sweat the details until then.

Not sure I agree so I will continue to sweat for all of us.

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#39 FormerMinnasotan

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Posted 10 August 2018 - 10:22 PM

I see Stephen as a lock for a call-up by September 1 and am not going to sweat the details until then.

Still I think Gonsalves deserves better than “just” a September call-up. His numbers overall are still good and to have an opponents batting average against lower than .200 in AA and AAA and a 1.15 WHIP warrants him to be up now, plus he’s still around 9 K’s per 9.

#40 twinstalker

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Posted 11 August 2018 - 12:10 PM

 

If this is some way of saying that Gonsalves is not on the 40-man roster, your assumption is wrong, and you've found a web site to back up your bias/misconception.Hmmm...where have we seen this before?

 

It's the new reality, I suppose.