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Article: Cleveland's Controllable Rotation Presents Blueprint for Twins

jose berrios
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#21 markos

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Posted 09 August 2018 - 12:19 PM

I think the most important part of the Indians blueprint was that they were able to keep Kluber and Carrasco healthy and effective. No one today is lauding the Rays, Braves, Rangers or Reds for their ability to lock up Matt Moore, Julio Teheran, Matt Harrison or Homer Bailey into long-term, team-friendly extensions. If Falvey can't recreate the same good fortune with health and effectiveness with the Twins, then in a certain sense it doesn't really matter if they are able to sign Berrios to a long term deal or not. 

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#22 Mike Sixel

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Posted 09 August 2018 - 12:19 PM

 

I must be the only person terrified by the thought of Berrios being our number one starting pitcher for years to come...

 

No, but why not sign your 2nd or 3rd best too?

 

And, welcome to the site!

One of the best opening day rosters in years. Now go get 'em.


#23 Krusington

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Posted 09 August 2018 - 12:24 PM

 

No, but why not sign your 2nd or 3rd best too?

 

And, welcome to the site!

 

That's fair. And thank you, I've enjoyed the site for some time now, figured it was about that time to put in my thoughts once in a while as well.

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#24 Kelly Vance

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Posted 09 August 2018 - 12:34 PM

Good article Nick. Very good. 

I think that any team that wants to seriously compete needs to overspend for quality staring pitchers.  The operative word there is "quality." 

 

Remember the Orioles late 60s early 70s staff?  Palmer, Cuellar, Dobson and McNally? Yes a 4 man rotation. Anyway, Cleveland's rotation reminds me of those guys. 

 

So my point is ..... identify the key guys and pay them well. It is worth it. If nothing else think of the time the FO saves looking for a jewel in the scrap heap. Just step up and pay. Then you are not having to worry about how to win 8-6 ball games. You are planning for a lot of 3-1 wins. 

 

Gibby had a bad start recently, but he has learned how to pitch finally. He should be extended. He is a #2 or 3.

 

Romero looks like a future Berrios. Gonsalves... geez, what does this guy have yet to prove at AAA?  We got some good guys in trades. I want to see us bring up some flame throwers to see what they can do. Nobody much mentions Jake Reed or Bard. We know what Duffy can do. Lets audition some guys like Reed that have been waiting in the wings. 

 

I think we have the ability to develop a rotation with at least 4 lights out starters within the next two years. Maybe then it will be our turn to return to the WS

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#25 spycake

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Posted 09 August 2018 - 12:45 PM

I think the most important part of the Indians blueprint was that they were able to keep Kluber and Carrasco healthy and effective. No one today is lauding the Rays, Braves, Rangers or Reds for their ability to lock up Matt Moore, Julio Teheran, Matt Harrison or Homer Bailey into long-term, team-friendly extensions. If Falvey can't recreate the same good fortune with health and effectiveness with the Twins, then in a certain sense it doesn't really matter if they are able to sign Berrios to a long term deal or not.


Well, Bailey and Harrison were nowhere near as team-friendly.

Kluber 5/38.5 plus 2 options
Carrasco 4/22 plus 2 options

Bailey 6/105 plus 1 option
Harrison 5/55 plus 1 option

Moore and Teheran were, and there was plenty of praise for those two deals, even as neither became stars -- there wasn't much risk on them. With help from his contract, Moore was flipped for Matt Duffy, and Teheran probably could have been flipped similarly in recent years although the Braves declined to do so.

But yeah, I agree with your larger point -- health and effectiveness are more important than contracts.
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#26 TheLeviathan

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Posted 09 August 2018 - 02:03 PM

 

I'm not sure you'd have to go that high because his earning potential over the next couple seasons is so limited. He's not even arb eligible until 2020.

 

Would a structure like this make sense? Maybe the last couple years are team options, a la Kluber/Carrasco?

2019: $1.5M (he'd be making 500k otherwise)

2020: $5.5M

2021: $9M

2022: $12M

2023: $14M

2024: $16M

2025: $16M

 

That's 7 years, $74 million and seems pretty reasonable to me, especially if there are incentives that can boost his earnings based on performance.

 

I wonder if the uncertainty of the free agent market would make a young player and his agent more open to something like this, too.

 

The uncertainty is your best bet.For me, I just don't see him or his agent accepting that contract.That's part of why my suggestion was higher, because I think it would have to be to get them to bite.

 

But you might be right, market volatility may be our friend.


#27 TheLeviathan

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Posted 09 August 2018 - 02:04 PM

 

The most I'd probably give Gibson is 3-years, $35 million. Assuming the qualifying offer isn't going anywhere (which may not be a safe assumption to make), the Twins can control Gibby for the next two seasons at something like $27 million. After that, he'll be heading into his age 33 season.

 

I'd much rather see any extra money potentially headed Gibson's way be directed toward adding a year or two of control to the younger guys, much like what Cleveland did with Kluber, Carrasco and Jose Ramirez.

 

Not trying to be funny here but, in all seriousness.....

 

Who are our Klubers, Carrascos, and Ramirezs to sign at this point?I love me some Rosario, but I'm not ready to do that kind of extension with him.I agree with you in principle, but we don't have those kinds of players to invest in right now.Hence why I'd be willing to throw a little more towards Gibson.

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#28 notoriousgod71

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Posted 09 August 2018 - 04:10 PM

 

I must be the only person terrified by the thought of Berrios being our number one starting pitcher for years to come...

 

I'm resigned to it.The only way it doesn't happen is if he completely collapses or some internal player magically morphs into Scherzer.


#29 BJames

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Posted 09 August 2018 - 05:49 PM

I'm passing on Gibby.He's OK nothing special.We have guys at AAA that could replace him for a lot less. 


#30 Mike Sixel

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Posted 09 August 2018 - 05:56 PM

 

I'm passing on Gibby.He's OK nothing special.We have guys at AAA that could replace him for a lot less. 

 

I'm not sure how anyone can reach that conclusion based on the past 12 months. I'd love to hear your rationale.

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One of the best opening day rosters in years. Now go get 'em.


#31 yarnivek1972

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Posted 09 August 2018 - 07:13 PM

And even if they did have guys at AAA that could replace him for less (an opinion I strongly disagree with), they definitely don’t have four. One, MAYBE two that MIGHT SOMEDAY be better.
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#32 BJames

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Posted 10 August 2018 - 07:00 AM

I think Gibson would sign a contract.I would hope it would be somewhat low. Why?I've watch Gibson for his 6 years with the Twins and this is what I see (excluding 2018)Gibby avg number of innings about 160, Gibby gives up more hits then inning pitched, avg k's about 130,But this year Gibsons numbers have all gotten better,140 innings-just 118 hits, 135k's and a whip of 1.24.I'm not buying that Gibson suddenly has learned to pitch.Remember the last guy we signed that seemed to have turned the corner. Morrison went from avg at 15 Hr's a year to 38, how is that working for us.I'm just not buying that one good year of Gibson is worth signing.Seem this year the pitchers have the advantage.I'm for finding or signing guy better then Gibson.If you look at Odorizzi's numbers, they are better than Gibson or very similar.Odorizzi had a year, last year, like Gibson is having this year (almost identical)What happened to Odorizzi this year, he regressed to what he was before.Middle of the road 4-5 pitcher on a good team. I just feel Gibby will regress next year and after as well.We need to find # 2,#3, to go with Berrios and Romero for the coming years.I'm ok if Gibby is #5 for a reasonable price, but he's not a number 1-3 pitcher on a good team, and I don't think a #4.That's just the way I see it. 


#33 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 10 August 2018 - 08:58 AM

 

I think Gibson would sign a contract.I would hope it would be somewhat low. Why?I've watch Gibson for his 6 years with the Twins and this is what I see (excluding 2018)Gibby avg number of innings about 160, Gibby gives up more hits then inning pitched, avg k's about 130,But this year Gibsons numbers have all gotten better,140 innings-just 118 hits, 135k's and a whip of 1.24.I'm not buying that Gibson suddenly has learned to pitch.Remember the last guy we signed that seemed to have turned the corner. Morrison went from avg at 15 Hr's a year to 38, how is that working for us.I'm just not buying that one good year of Gibson is worth signing.Seem this year the pitchers have the advantage.I'm for finding or signing guy better then Gibson.If you look at Odorizzi's numbers, they are better than Gibson or very similar.Odorizzi had a year, last year, like Gibson is having this year (almost identical)What happened to Odorizzi this year, he regressed to what he was before.Middle of the road 4-5 pitcher on a good team. I just feel Gibby will regress next year and after as well.We need to find # 2,#3, to go with Berrios and Romero for the coming years.I'm ok if Gibby is #5 for a reasonable price, but he's not a number 1-3 pitcher on a good team, and I don't think a #4.That's just the way I see it. 

Gibson made an approach and delivery change last season and has been a significantly different pitcher since that time (roughly 12 months now). This isn't a fluke, Gibson is a different pitcher today than he was early last season. 

 

That doesn't mean he can't regress or get injured - just like anybody - but he's a pretty safe bet to be a better, more consistent pitcher than he was earlier in his career.

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#34 Mike Sixel

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Posted 10 August 2018 - 09:11 AM

I have no idea why everyone is so sure Romero is going to be really good, he's not even in the majors right now........

 

I see no shot Gibson signs for a low deal, this is his last shot to make big money. You either have to give him years, or big money, or both, imo, to get him to sign.

One of the best opening day rosters in years. Now go get 'em.


#35 spycake

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Posted 10 August 2018 - 09:34 AM

 

I see no shot Gibson signs for a low deal, this is his last shot to make big money. You either have to give him years, or big money, or both, imo, to get him to sign.

Well, Gibson might be a realist. He's not entering FA until his age 32 season, and he might come with a draft pick penalty if we make him a qualifying offer. Given how the market played out last offseason, he might not have any real shot at "big money", and a more modest guarantee could be seen as acceptable (it's at least insurance for him in case of injury, which is always a concern for pitchers).

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#36 Mike Sixel

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Posted 10 August 2018 - 09:44 AM

 

Well, Gibson might be a realist. He's not entering FA until his age 32 season, and he might come with a draft pick penalty if we make him a qualifying offer. Given how the market played out last offseason, he might not have any real shot at "big money", and a more modest guarantee could be seen as acceptable (it's at least insurance for him in case of injury, which is always a concern for pitchers).

 

A QO will be worth 19MM by then.....at that point, depending on how things look, you maybe just take that 1 year deal. If he's this good next year, he'll get a deal, even as a 32 yo. Most athletes bet on themselves at this point, not all, but most.

 

I think 4/80 gets it done. I don't think 3 years (as that's only a 2 year extension) gets is done, but it might. Kind of depends how long he wants to play.

One of the best opening day rosters in years. Now go get 'em.




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