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Article: How Soon Could Royce Lewis Call Target Field Home?

royce lewis carlos correa francisco lindor casey mize
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#21 T_J

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Posted 07 August 2018 - 10:05 AM

I tell my kids that you learn more about a man at the moment of rejection than at any other time. 

 

We have seen Kiriloff deal with disappointment and responding to a major injury. It has been impressive. 

 

We have not seen how either of them deal with things when the ball looks like a marble and the bat feels like a tree trunk. We need to see how they deal with a prolonged slump.

 

People have to struggle in order to be successful. Right now, they look like the next great thing but many, many players have in the single A levels. It seems that AA is the true proving ground. 

 

I have not noticed anything that leads me to believe they wouldn't respond well to a slump but it needs to be seen. 


#22 mlhouse

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Posted 07 August 2018 - 10:39 AM

Why not opening day 2019?Add Gordon, Luis Arreaz, LeMonte Wade and Rooker to that lineup too. Here are the reasons why.

 

 

1. They would not be the first 20 or 21 year olds to play in the major leagues.I haven't seen any evidence were the Twins minor league development makes that much of a difference. Make the commitment to these young players even if that means lots of losses, lots of errors and lots of strikeouts.  

 

2.It isn't as if the team has a high quality players at the positions.THe middle infield is wide open with the trading of Dozier.Move Lewis to SS and Gordon to 2B, with Polanco and Arreaz the utility guys.Replace Morrison with Rooker. Wade is the 4th OF, and Kirilloff would play all of the OF spots as well as DH.

 

3.Let this new wave of current FO picks mix in with the younger guys we have on the roster now, get a manager that will be willing to work with the young guys and has the patience to do so, and let this group take their lumps for a bit.Maybe 2019 would be a 100 loss season like 1982 or the recent ones we had.But, my guess is starting late 2019 and into 2020 we would see the elements of growth in many of these players.Not all of them will be successful, but learning this now means we can adjust with new prospects from the minors and then finding veteran players to fill the remaining gaps.  

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#23 nater79a

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Posted 07 August 2018 - 11:50 AM

Great stuff, Seth!

 

I'm going to guess we see Royce in June 2020 once the super-2 service time is taken care of.  

 

Any idea when he most likely would make an appearance in the Arizona Fall League?After this season or after 2019?None at all?

 

 

 


#24 nater79a

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Posted 07 August 2018 - 11:57 AM

 

Lewis should debut either in June (after the likely Super 2 arbitration cutoff, like Correa and Lindor) or mid-April (after the 7th year of control is guaranteed, like Kris Bryant).

These dates are largely irrelevant for the vast majority of players, but Lewis looks elite and thus they carry some significance, especially as a position player. Yes, the service time may prove irrelevant like it has for Buxton and Sano, but you have to cover that base in advance.

The only question now is how quickly he can get through AA and AAA and stay healthy. June 2019 is probably a little too fast -- but it would be exciting! April 2020 seems like a good bet now, assuming health, with a fallback of June 2020 or April 2021 if he is slowed by an injury in the meantime.

If the Twins deviate from those dates, it would be nice if his call-up was accompanied by a contract extension, buying out his arb years and at least one FA year.

 

Has Scott Boras even done this type of thing before?Buying out arb years and extending into FA?

 


#25 spycake

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Posted 07 August 2018 - 12:06 PM

Has Scott Boras even done this type of thing before? Buying out arb years and extending into FA?


Perhaps not.

But that just makes it more important to time the promotion, if at all possible, for maximum impact. You want him to have significant impact on 7 MLB seasons, preferably starting with a competitive one.
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#26 nater79a

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Posted 07 August 2018 - 12:15 PM

 

Perhaps not.

But that just makes it more important to time the promotion, if at all possible, for maximum impact. You want him to have significant impact on 7 MLB seasons, preferably starting with a competitive one.

 

Correct.At the very least you're not going to see Lewis start out with the Twins on an opening day.He'll get the Kris Bryant treatment of a dozen days or so in the minors to make sure he doesn't get that first year of service time.Then it's just a matter of if the Twins hold him back till June to avoid the super-2 cutoff. 

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#27 bluechipper

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Posted 07 August 2018 - 12:41 PM

Not sure I'd call Houston impatient wtih Correia. The guy destroyed the high minors.
 
Lewis has been really similar to Correia thus far, but to be fair, Correia turned it up substantially in both his second and third full seasons... Hopefully Lewis can do the same, but I certainly wouldn't be pinning my hopes on the kid breaking a .900 OPS in the high minors. That's not fair to Lewis. 
 
Lindor, strangely enough, was better in the majors than he ever was in the minors.

Jose Ramirez has been a way better hitter in the majors too. I wonder what Cleveland knows about development that the Twins don't.
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#28 Han Joelo

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Posted 07 August 2018 - 12:46 PM

So lots of hope and squinting was needed to picture 2017 Platinum Glove Winner Byron Buxton being a young performer when he put up a 944 OPS with double-digit everything in 2013.
 
I remember the fanfare being pretty much the same.
 
Sure there is excitement, but let's not get too far ahead of ourselves.

Han Joelo, on 07 Aug 2018 - 09:00 AM, said:
Lewis--and Kiriloff--feel different than the last two highly rated prospects the Twins had.Less hope and squinting is needed to picture these guys in the majors as young--performing--players.

 
You can interpret how much hoping and squinting is involved when I say "less" is needed with Lewis and Kiriloff than was needed with Sano and Buxton.  Actually, I'll just tell you.  Squinting:  we're talking microns here, maybe 50-60 or thereabouts.  Hope:  measured in "pangs,"  I'd say the difference is only a pang or two.  The point being both sets of players engender hope, which is a good thing, maybe the best thing; and if you squint to some degree, you can actually, possible make out the silhouette of a unicorn.  Anyway, just remember Admiral Poopooer Tapthebrakes from the Empire Strikes Back:

https://youtu.be/TvcYjQCJ8_o

Edited by Han Joelo, 07 August 2018 - 12:47 PM.

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#29 Rosterman

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Posted 07 August 2018 - 12:49 PM

If the Twins truly are in a rebuilding mode, they have to look at WHEN they want to be competitive...is it 2020 or 2021 or 2022. You take into consideration the logical advancement of all your current priospects. You take into considertion that they may have one-two seasons of average baseball before they start to take off. Do you do it in 2019 fer sure, when losing won't matter and the quest for a high draft choice is the main target, with players getting on-field experience.

But on the flip side, they use up service time and have the potential to become a free agent that much earlier, especially when you are dealing with guys 20-21-22 and you make them multi-millionaires with lots of prime years. Assuming that they do play well and don't just disappear into the mist of springtime.

 

I would like to see Royce get a September callup next season, starting his 40-man roster time perhaps a bit early. I would like to see him in spring training challenging for a job, but maybe NOT taking it untli mid-season 2020.

 

But then, if that was my plan, I would also be pushing Nick Gordon to get experience the remainder of this yer and to use next season as an opportunity to see if he is a longterm guy somewhere on the field.

 

Kriloff, Lewis, Rooker are all guys I think we can fast trak. Also Graterol would be a pitcher I would do the same.

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#30 tarheeltwinsfan

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Posted 07 August 2018 - 01:11 PM

Great offensive comparisons, Seth. How do the three young shortstops compare at arguably the most important defensive position on the field?

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#31 JaleelWhite FanClub

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Posted 07 August 2018 - 01:26 PM

As several posters have noted, the amazing thing with both Lindor and Correa is how both showed no drop in production when they hit the majors. Lindor has actually had better numbers in the majors then he did in the minors.

 

Contrast that to what Twins fans have seen recently from their own stud prospects. Buxton, who along with Correa was always 1A or 1B on prospect lists, has never approached his minors numbers except for the last two months last season. He has morphed into a .200 hitter with almost no power. Sano has basically lost his way and has become a historically-significant strikeout machine at the plate.

 

By the time Lewis debuts with the Twins, I'm think most fans will respond with tempered excitement given these two cases. It's fun to hope for our own Lindor or Correa, but I think we'd be happy with a debut anywhere better than Buxton's or Sano's. 

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#32 slash129

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Posted 07 August 2018 - 01:37 PM

 

Anyway, just remember Admiral Poopooer Tapthebrakes from the Empire Strikes Back:

https://youtu.be/TvcYjQCJ8_o

 

Admiral Poopooer Tapthebrakes only exists to offset Lloyd Christmas.

 

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#33 jkcarew

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Posted 07 August 2018 - 02:20 PM

 

People have to struggle in order to be successful. Right now, they look like the next great thing but many, many players have in the single A levels. It seems that AA is the true proving ground.

 

I know, nobody knows,

Where it comes and where it goes.

I know, it's everybody's sin

You got to lose to know how to win.

 

- Steven Tyler (Boston prospect of the very early 70's; went on to a HOF career)

Little know fact:the original lyric included the phrase "development is not linear"...but he couldn't get that lyric to work with the riff.

 

I'd say Lewis's arrival will depend, in part, on how his development as SS goes...as it's possible his bat is ready before his glove is, in which case the CF/OF situation comes into play.

Nevertheless, my guess is June 2020.

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#34 rileyroy

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Posted 07 August 2018 - 03:22 PM

A lot will depend if Paul Molitor is manager still.If he is- when Lewis is called up- he will sit on the bench, get a token start or two- then sent back down- only to be brought up later- for a month playing sporadically then sent down again- with his timing and confidence shot- pushing back his progression a year or two.

 

I hate being a realist at times:(


#35 Mike Sixel

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Posted 07 August 2018 - 03:41 PM

QQ:

 

What if Buxton doesn't hit again next year.....do you move Lewis to CF?

 

does that answer change if Gordon turns it on next year, and Buxton isn't hitting?

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There's always next year, or the next, or maybe by the time I'm Chief's age, I guess....


#36 tarheeltwinsfan

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Posted 08 August 2018 - 06:43 AM

 

Great offensive comparisons, Seth. How do the three young shortstops compare at arguably the most important defensive position on the field?

I left the word "defensively" out of my post. My bad. How do they compare defensively? Arm strength? Accuracy in throwing? Agility? Speed? Turning the double play? Probability of remaining at SS for 10 years? SS, like CF,is such a key to a team's defense, which makes bad pitching better and good pitching great.


#37 ashburyjohn

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Posted 08 August 2018 - 06:48 AM

Jose Ramirez has been a way better hitter in the majors too. I wonder what Cleveland knows about development that the Twins don't.

Ramirez is hugely talented. He was added to their 40-man and got a brief taste of the majors at age 20. He split his seasons in majors and AAA at both 21 and 22, and did better in the minors than in the majors in those years. He was then in the majors to stay at age 23, and his stats have continued to get better each season.

 

They've done a great job of developing him and he's done a great job of learning. But I see nothing anomalous about his progression. He's done better in the majors than in the minors because he was so good that he reached the majors at 20, before he was anywhere close to a finished product. In particular, his power has come in, as happens often with prospects in their early 20s.

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#38 Linus

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Posted 08 August 2018 - 07:09 AM

Has anyone seen reports on his fielding? Some were saying he wouldn’t stick at SS. That would obviously play into this

#39 Doctor Wu

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Posted 08 August 2018 - 08:27 AM

As others have stated, players progress and develop differently. It would be foolish to expect every player to have the same trajectory. And in the case of a special talent like Lewis, it would be counterproductive to hesitate to promote him because of his age or relative lack of inexperience. Some players just have the extra special something. And if that's the case, I hope the Twins are unusually aggressive and promote players like Lewis and Kiriloff faster than usual. No, I don't want them to be taking a lot of unnecessary risks, but I think it's time that they DO take a few chances with this impressive talent we have and see how they perform at higher levels. .


#40 ShouldaCouldaWoulda

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Posted 08 August 2018 - 09:47 AM

 

Seth, thanks for the comparison article!!! Nice read!Plus it gives us hope!!!!!

 

Now how about a similar article for Alex Kirilloff? :)

...to Juan Soto;)




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