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Post Trade Deadline Twins Prospect Rankings

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#21 Thrylos

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Posted 03 August 2018 - 11:38 AM

 

That was my point....an OF > 1B.....that's one reason Kiriloff is higher rated...

 

I think that there is a misunderstanding between WAR baseline calculations and subjective projected prospect ability :)

 

According to the above logic Brunansky > Hrbek, which I don't think was ever the case...

 

To say that in general someone who can play OF, can play 1B, is a bit of generalization.The problem with that is that 1B is the position with the most chances in baseball, since it is involved in the majority of outs. I am not convinced that Kirilloff's glove will ever be good enough to play 1B and have 20-30 chances or so instead of 5-6 or so a game

Edited by Thrylos, 03 August 2018 - 11:41 AM.

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#22 SF Twins Fan

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Posted 03 August 2018 - 11:55 AM

 

I think that there is a misunderstanding between WAR baseline calculations and subjective projected prospect ability :)

 

According to the above logic Brunansky > Hrbek, which I don't think was ever the case...

 

To say that in general someone who can play OF, can play 1B, is a bit of generalization.The problem with that is that 1B is the position with the most chances in baseball, since it is involved in the majority of outs. I am not convinced that Kirilloff's glove will ever be good enough to play 1B and have 20-30 chances or so instead of 5-6 or so a game

 

 

I bet Brunansky would be a better 1st baseman than Hrbek would be an outfielder.

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#23 Mike Sixel

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Posted 03 August 2018 - 11:55 AM

 

I think that there is a misunderstanding between WAR baseline calculations and subjective projected prospect ability :)

 

According to the above logic Brunansky > Hrbek, which I don't think was ever the case...

 

To say that in general someone who can play OF, can play 1B, is a bit of generalization.The problem with that is that 1B is the position with the most chances in baseball, since it is involved in the majority of outs. I am not convinced that Kirilloff's glove will ever be good enough to play 1B and have 20-30 chances or so instead of 5-6 or so a game

 

No, that's not the same.....at all. 

 

The value of an OF > 1B....in a vacuum. That's a well accepted fact across all of the internet (and I assume baseball, given how FA and trades work out). I didn't have any idea this would be controversial.

 

The delta between good and bad 1B is pretty tiny, when you look at DRS and FG's defensive stats, while the delta between good and bad OF is much, much, much, larger.

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#24 Thrylos

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Posted 03 August 2018 - 12:03 PM

 

No, that's not the same.....at all. 

 

The value of an OF > 1B....in a vacuum. That's a well accepted fact across all of the internet (and I assume baseball, given how FA and trades work out). I didn't have any idea this would be controversial.

 

The delta between good and bad 1B is pretty tiny, when you look at DRS and FG's defensive stats, while the delta between good and bad OF is much, much, much, larger.

 

1B is actually on of the positions which, because of the seer amount of chances, FP, or errors, is a decent metric, in addition to a range indicating metric, like plus minus, or DRS or UZR.Good luck finding advance defensive metrics for minor leaguers.

 

If an opinion is widely accepted in the internet, does not make it a fact :) Esp. in subjective matters like this, which do not have many facts. Was Delmon factually the best player to come out in a decade?

 

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#25 Thrylos

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Posted 03 August 2018 - 12:05 PM

 

 

I bet Brunansky would be a better 1st baseman than Hrbek would be an outfielder.

 

Hrbek 38.6 bWAR vs Brunansky 22.0 bWAR, using a metric that punishes 1B more than OFs.

 

Hrbek was the best player. Even if Brunansky was a 1B, Hrbek would still be the best 1B (and best player).

 

Same with Rooker and Kirilloff, in my opinion. 

 

YMMV.It is all subjective.

Edited by Thrylos, 03 August 2018 - 12:06 PM.

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#26 Mike Sixel

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Posted 03 August 2018 - 12:23 PM

 

1B is actually on of the positions which, because of the seer amount of chances, FP, or errors, is a decent metric, in addition to a range indicating metric, like plus minus, or DRS or UZR.Good luck finding advance defensive metrics for minor leaguers.

 

If an opinion is widely accepted in the internet, does not make it a fact :) Esp. in subjective matters like this, which do not have many facts. Was Delmon factually the best player to come out in a decade?

 

the opinion is reflected in FA deals and trades also......

 

Your other argument, about Hrbek vs Bruno has nothing to do with the relative value of their positions, but their ability to hit, which is a completely different discussion.

 

And, it isn't actually "subjective", you can measure the relative value of the delta between good and bad players at positions, and across positions pretty easily, with numbers, just like you posted.

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#27 Dman

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Posted 03 August 2018 - 12:28 PM

 

Compared to Graterol and Rooker, he is. They are both ahead of him. 

 

Kiriloff's hit and power tool are above average and might be approaching plus.His fielding and arm are both below average and his speed/base running is much below average.He does not walk much (career: 0.044 isoD). To me he projects as a LF/DH.Which is fine.He is still a top 10 prospect in this system, with pretty much similar profile to Lanarch btw who might actually be a step ahead of them in fielding, arm, speed, and discipline.  

 

My point is that he is overrated, which means that I think that there are better prospects than him, not that he is a bad prospect.Just not that

high in this team.

 

I don't know that seems a bit nit picky to me.Hey, you are entitled to your opinion but it definitely runs contrary to most others observations.

 

IMO Kiriloff has an elite hit tool.He doesn't walk much, because when pitchers throw him a strike he hits it.His K rate is 17% to Rookers 30%.Rooker has plus power but it looks like Kiriloff might as well.Rooker has 20 home runs to Kiriloffs 16.Rooker is walking about 10% of the time compared to 8% for Kiriloff not a huge difference there. Especially when that seemed to be a concern of yours,

 

Defensively I haven't had the privilege to personally watch either one but Fangraphs has Kiriloffs arm rated 60 his running and fielding are rated higher than Rooker as well.On MLB both players are rated average except in fielding where Rooker is rate below average.

 

You can say Kiriloff is worse than Rooker all you like but I don't see how the stats nor industry prospect evaluators back that up.

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#28 Tom Froemming

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Posted 03 August 2018 - 12:30 PM

1. Lewis

2. Kirilloff

3. Graterol

4. Rooker

5. Gordon

6. Gonsalves

7. Larnach

8. Baddoo

9. Thorpe

10. Javier

11. Rortvedt

12. Littell

13. Wade

14. Alcala

15. Blankenhorn

16. Severino

17. Celestino

18. Miranda

19. Jeffers

20. Enlow

21. Urbina

22. Duran

23. Arraez

24. Pearson

25. Stewart

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#29 Tomj14

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Posted 03 August 2018 - 12:50 PM

 


And, it isn't actually "subjective", you can measure the relative value of the delta between good and bad players at positions, and across positions pretty easily, with numbers, just like you posted.

Doesn't it really come down to who "you" think is going to be best major league ball player?

If somebody thinks that Rooker could/will be an all star first basemen and thinks Kirilloff is going to be a good every day player, then you would say Rooker is the better prospect or vice versa.

But IMO if you believe that OF > 1B is the end all to decide between prospects than the Twins made a huge mistake drafting Rooker that high when a OF is greater than 1B.

Now I believe Kirilloff is going to have a better major league career than Rooker for multiple reasons but not based on the fact he plays OF vs 1B.

Just my two cents, but as my friend's son always says "just give me two cents because it is worth more than your opinion"


#30 bighat

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Posted 03 August 2018 - 12:58 PM

Gimme Royce Lewis in a Twins uniform, and give it to me now.

 

OK, at least promote him to Chattanooga!He's the real deal.


#31 Tom Froemming

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Posted 03 August 2018 - 01:04 PM

Screw it, I'm gonna keep goin'

 

26. Leach

27. De La Torre

28. Balazovic

29. Jax

30. Moran

31. Diaz

32. T.Wells

33. Raley

34. Wiel

35. Rijo

36. Keirsey

37. L.Wells

38. Jay

39. Watson

40. Maciel

41. Barnes

42. Curtiss

43. Ober

44. Aguiar

45. Teng

46. Mack

47. Montero

48. Jorge

49. Vasquez

50. Stashak

 

Everybody else tied at No. 51 :)

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#32 Mike Sixel

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Posted 03 August 2018 - 01:15 PM

 

Doesn't it really come down to who "you" think is going to be best major league ball player?

If somebody thinks that Rooker could/will be an all star first basemen and thinks Kirilloff is going to be a good every day player, then you would say Rooker is the better prospect or vice versa.

But IMO if you believe that OF > 1B is the end all to decide between prospects than the Twins made a huge mistake drafting Rooker that high when a OF is greater than 1B.

Now I believe Kirilloff is going to have a better major league career than Rooker for multiple reasons but not based on the fact he plays OF vs 1B.

Just my two cents, but as my friend's son always says "just give me two cents because it is worth more than your opinion"

 

Well, the discussion is the relative value of the position, and nothing more......

 

NOPLACE did I say that is the only way to make a decision on anyone, I was merely trying to say that Kiriloff can play the OF, and probably 1B, and that his defense gives him an advantage in rankings.

 

Clearly if you think someone will hit A LOT better than him, that matters, but that literally is not the discussion I was having. I don't know how to make that more clear......I was literally discussing the relative value of defensive positions, nothing more, nothing less.

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#33 howieramone2

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Posted 03 August 2018 - 01:34 PM

 

Screw it, I'm gonna keep goin'

 

26. Leach

27. De La Torre

28. Balazovic

29. Jax

30. Moran

31. Diaz

32. T.Wells

33. Raley

34. Wiel

35. Rijo

36. Keirsey

37. L.Wells

38. Jay

39. Watson

40. Maciel

41. Barnes

42. Curtiss

43. Ober

44. Aguiar

45. Teng

46. Mack

47. Montero

48. Jorge

49. Vasquez

50. Stashak

 

Everybody else tied at No. 51 :)

Tom, that's the whole point. Our farm system is very deep. Last off-season I thought they would trade a Gonsalves and Romero type for a 2/3. The problem with that would be, we would lose our starting pitching deep. IMHO we can package at least 2 blockbusters w/o completely stripping our farm system after the outstanding work done at the deadline.

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#34 birdwatcher

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Posted 03 August 2018 - 01:38 PM

 

I bet Brunansky would be a better 1st baseman than Hrbek would be an outfielder.

 

 

I bet that Kiriloff will be a better MLB baseball player than Rooker, despite that onerous home schooling issue. The authentic evaluators like KLAW think so, pretty much universally now. 

 

I don't buy thrylos's opinions about base running (speed?!?) and defense when comparing these two prospects either.

 

Kiriloff has shot up the overall prospect rankings, and there's a reason for that. KLAW, for one, recently said he's going to be an all-star many times over.

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#35 Dman

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Posted 03 August 2018 - 04:23 PM

 

Screw it, I'm gonna keep goin'

 

26. Leach

27. De La Torre

28. Balazovic

29. Jax

30. Moran

31. Diaz

32. T.Wells

33. Raley

34. Wiel

35. Rijo

36. Keirsey

37. L.Wells

38. Jay

39. Watson

40. Maciel

41. Barnes

42. Curtiss

43. Ober

44. Aguiar

45. Teng

46. Mack

47. Montero

48. Jorge

49. Vasquez

50. Stashak

 

Everybody else tied at No. 51 :)

 

Man there is some serious talent in that top 50.I think we need to petition MLB.com to publish at least a top 40 for the Twins because they have too many talented players. :) Thanks to for above and beyond!I like your list.


#36 jkcarew

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Posted 03 August 2018 - 05:16 PM

Compared to Graterol and Rooker, he is. They are both ahead of him. 
 
Kiriloff's hit and power tool are above average and might be approaching plus.His fielding and arm are both below average and his speed/base running is much below average.He does not walk much (career: 0.044 isoD). To me he projects as a LF/DH.Which is fine.He is still a top 10 prospect in this system, with pretty much similar profile to Lanarch btw who might actually be a step ahead of them in fielding, arm, speed, and discipline.  
 
My point is that he is overrated, which means that I think that there are better prospects than him, not that he is a bad prospect.Just not that high in this team.


Defense and plate discipline might be the two last criteria I would use to rate Rooker ahead of Kirilloff as a prospect. I’d be way more concerned by Rooker’s (very much) higher K rate than Kirilloff’s marginally lower B.B. rate. Kirilloff will have more defensive flexibility, not less. And it’s strange how they keep putting a guy with such a weak arm in RF rather than LF.

When considering that Rooker was a sophomore in college (3 years ago) when he was Kirilloff’s age, I think the first, last, and only reason to rank Rooker ahead of Kirilloff, would be Rooker’s power tool.
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