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Article: Minnesota Twins 2018 Trade Deadline Report Card

eduardo escobar brian dozier ryan pressly lance lynn zach duke
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#21 Seth Stohs

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Posted 01 August 2018 - 09:51 PM

 

Looking at those two trades as being part of the same transaction, how would you grade that Tom and Seth.

 

I would grade them as individual trades... Twins traded the same two guys for the same four guys, so nothing is different than what happened from the Twins perspective. 


#22 Seth Stohs

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Posted 01 August 2018 - 09:52 PM

 

Ernie De La Trinidad is off to an incredible start at Fort Myers.

 

Yup, I think he's a pretty similar profile to another 2017 draft pick and another Miracle OF, Mark Contreras. 


#23 Seth Stohs

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Posted 01 August 2018 - 09:55 PM

 

Forsythe is a two-month placeholder.

 

With some, very minimal, chance of him being an August trade candidate.  

 

Also, if the Twins feel that Gordon's going to be a half-season away or so, the Twins can get a first-hand look at Forsythe and get a stronger opinion on him (good or bad). He could be a guy who they bring back next spring at like $2 million or something and he can continue to be a place holder for Gordon. I mean, he's been hurt a lot the last couple of years, but when healthy, he can be a solid ballplayer. 

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#24 goulik

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Posted 01 August 2018 - 09:57 PM

Doesn't his contract end after this season? If they're not stuck with him, what's wrong if he hangs around? They could even cut him, if it's a sunk cost.

 

 

Yes. The issue is they're going to have to pay Forsythe something like $3 million no matter what. He had an 81 OPS+ in 650 PAs with the Dodgers. Yuck. Again, his inclusion in that deal lowered its value. Part of the benefit of dealing Dozier should have been salary relief.


The big problem with taking Forsythe is that he’s taking a 25 man roster spot from someone (Gordon?) that could get some MLB experience in preparation for next year.

#25 Mike Sixel

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Posted 01 August 2018 - 10:22 PM

Fangraphs has an ever so slightly different view of Alcala....

 

Their overall rankings for the Twins' minors are here (and include the new players)...

 

https://www.fangraph...=&pos=&team=min

 

Overall, I like that the FO traded off guys that have expiring deals, and have plenty of depth to deal for a veteran or two next off season (or in August). 

Edited by Mike Sixel, 01 August 2018 - 10:23 PM.

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It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 


#26 mudcat14

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Posted 01 August 2018 - 11:43 PM

A+.Pressley was the only one relatively certain to be here next season, and to turn him and the others into 10 prospects, plus Austin & Forsythe is amazing.No idea which, but am willing to bet a couple of them actually pan out, down the road.

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#27 Jacksson

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Posted 02 August 2018 - 04:02 AM

Neither Molitor, Everyday Eddie or the catchers who called pitches for him could quite figure out how to correctly use Pressly. Too many inherited runners scored and too many hits and walks given up with runners on base for him. He needed to be only used to start an inning. Don't like the Dozier trade, should have waited until 8/31 or just kept him. Just wonder if he had begun to shoot off his mouth - so it may have been addition by subtraction. As the Dodgers passed on Dozier to get Forsythe, I would have let them choke on him.
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#28 yarnivek1972

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Posted 02 August 2018 - 05:18 AM

Forsythe is a two-month placeholder.


I’m hoping more like two weeks. It really makes zero sense to have him get playing time when the Twins could be evaluating Austudillo at the MLB level. Maybe someone will put in a waiver claim.
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#29 spycake

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Posted 02 August 2018 - 06:19 AM

Zack Duke for De Jong and Costello: A-, Neither prospect is exciting, but to get two players for a lefty reliever is impressive.


Keep in mind De Jong was on the 40-man roster -- Seattle likely had to cut him anyway to make room, and he's marginal enough that they didn't really care if they lost him on waivers. I think that's how we got 2 players for Duke, rather than any particular demonstration of scouting/negotiating skill.

De Jong seems to join a bottleneck of marginal pitchers on the Twins 40-man roster. If he was a waiver claim, I suspect we'd be a bit more skeptical of his usefulness than you are in this trade grade.
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#30 mtillma

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Posted 02 August 2018 - 06:20 AM

I really enjoyed this article. Question I have, does anyone think it is possible that Dozier asked to be traded so that he couldn't get stuck with a qualifying offer hanging over him when he entered free agency and the FO did the best they could to comply with his wishes and got back the best they could as a courtesy to Dozier and the time and performance for this team? We have seen recently what the qualifying offer does to free agents such as Moustakas last year.


#31 KGB

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Posted 02 August 2018 - 06:38 AM

Like grading a teams draft pick after a draft, it's fun, when you trade for prospects, you need to really look back in a couple years.I think gunnarthor had an excellent review of the moves from last year, so we'll have to check back on these moves to see if they brought value back to the Twins.

 

http://twinsdaily.co...ears-fo-trades/

 

But for fun, here's my reviews of the trades

 

Escobar trade is the most difficult for me.He seemed to be the sole of the clubhouse.I hope the FO makes getting him back as a FA one of their top priorities.

 

Pressly has potential to be an impact pitcher, but his talent was maddening.I think this is an example of trading at maximum value.I think it's a good move and the trade brought back good value.

 

Duke trade is really a nothing trade.Dejong probably get's DFA at year end and Costello is going to be a good minor league player.The real value is opening up the roster spot for this year, now let hope the FO uses it wisely.

 

Lynn is another addition by subtraction.Austin probably get's DFA also at year end and Rijo replaces the prospect we sent the Yankee's in the Cave trade.Opening up the starts for the rest of the year is the biggest value.

 

Dozier is a breakup the was going to happen.I doubt any of the players will be of much value.The only downside is if we are watching Forsythe (or Motter) play second in September.

 

 

 

 

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#32 ashbury

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Posted 02 August 2018 - 06:40 AM

 The big problem with taking Forsythe is that he’s taking a 25 man roster spot from someone (Gordon?) that could get some MLB experience in preparation for next year.

Oh noes! Then cut him. The trade didn't provide salary relief, but we got a couple of guys, so that's the value with or without Forsythe. I'll never understand why someone's salary makes a difference on 25-man or 40-man decisions in situations like this. Sunk cost, and all that. In the past off-season, the FO office was perfectly happy to pay Dozier the $9M as part of having a shot at contention this year; the contention part didn't pan out, and the cost at this point is baked in.

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#33 Han Joelo

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Posted 02 August 2018 - 06:48 AM

 

I really enjoyed this article. Question I have, does anyone think it is possible that Dozier asked to be traded so that he couldn't get stuck with a qualifying offer hanging over him when he entered free agency and the FO did the best they could to comply with his wishes and got back the best they could as a courtesy to Dozier and the time and performance for this team? We have seen recently what the qualifying offer does to free agents such as Moustakas last year.

They could have done him a courtesy anyway by not putting the QO on him.  Nonetheless, I have a feeling that this move was a courtesy move, for all parties involved.  Andrew Friedman probably finished the transaction with a "Thanks, Derek, I owe you one."  One what, you ask?  I don't know.  Future considerations, like a Moscow Mule or probably something trendier.

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#34 Han Joelo

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Posted 02 August 2018 - 06:50 AM

 

 

 

Escobar trade is the most difficult for me.He seemed to be the sole of the clubhouse.I hope the FO makes getting him back as a FA one of their top priorities.

 

Sometimes you're the soul, and sometimes you're squashed by the sole.

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#35 spycake

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Posted 02 August 2018 - 06:54 AM

Oh noes! Then cut him.


Well, yes. I think some folks are factoring into their evaluation that the Twins haven't cut him yet. Is it fair to maybe make a conditional grade?

#36 Tomj14

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Posted 02 August 2018 - 07:09 AM

 

I’m hoping more like two weeks. It really makes zero sense to have him get playing time when the Twins could be evaluating Austudillo at the MLB level. Maybe someone will put in a waiver claim.

Are we really talking or thinking Willians Astudillo has a future on the Twins? In the day and age of OBP the Twins are going to say hey lets give an roster spot to a 26 year old with a career MINOR league OBP of less than .300? 

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#37 Han Joelo

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Posted 02 August 2018 - 07:12 AM

https://www.fangraph...the-deadline-2/

 

If you want to play "what if,' check out this article.  What if Fangraph's is right, and what if the Twins had done things different.

 

For instance, maybe they jump in earlier and get Drury instead of Austin for Lynn.

 

How did the Mets get the 8th best (Fangraphs) prospect for Cabrera?

 

Still, what if's aside, not a bad haul in Fangraph's estimation.  Duran has "arguably the best stuff of any prospect traded."  So that could be good.


#38 ashbury

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Posted 02 August 2018 - 07:13 AM

Well, yes. I think some folks are factoring into their evaluation that the Twins haven't cut him yet. Is it fair to maybe make a conditional grade?

Not sure. Trades and roster management are two facets of franchise management that seem nearly independent of one another. In this case there should be a plan that connects the two facets, but even if not, I think the trade can stand on its own: we got two prospects of some value that can be debated, and a major-league zero. I'm fine with ignoring the zero. If roster management turns it to a negative, that doesn't reflect on the trade itself.

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#39 mikelink45

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Posted 02 August 2018 - 07:26 AM

I really liked this report and I tend to side more with Tom's grades than Seth's more optimistic appraisal.Of course I think we dawdled with Dozier and that hurt, plus Rodney should have moved on too and I would have taken offers for Odorizzi.Sometimes it is what you did not do that really affects the overall grade which I would make a C.(One exception - moving Lynn was terrific). 


#40 Tom Froemming

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Posted 02 August 2018 - 07:38 AM

 

Well, yes. I think some folks are factoring into their evaluation that the Twins haven't cut him yet. Is it fair to maybe make a conditional grade?

Not me. If they cut him today that doesn't change my grade at all, they still have to pay him that money. The only thing that might change my evaluation is if they were able to deal Forsythe this month, which is highly unlikely.

 

Speaking of which, if anybody is curious about how waiver trades work, I wrote a primer for MLB Daily Dish back in 2012 that I believe is still accurate today. One of the things I've always found interesting is that any player not on the 40-man roster can still be dealt with no restrictions this month.

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