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Article: 7 Critical Twins Players to Track in the Final Months

miguel sano addison reed max kepler byron buxton fernando romero
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#81 Major League Ready

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Posted 01 August 2018 - 01:48 PM

 

To clarify, I certainly think we can be competitive next year with some moves and some players getting their **** together. I also am absolutely 100% in support of us selling this year and trading our pending free agents for some minor league pieces. But the person I was quoting was also asking for a ton of things to all break right in their hypothetical situation, and while I think we can be competitive I would not be banking on us acquiring two top tier SP + two top tier RP + multiple other quality major league pieces, and my confidence in Buxton and Sano is not particularly high. I have expectations of improvement over this year, and I expect they'll be making a fair number of FA moves and trades this offseason, but that list was definitely more moves/lucky breaks than I'd be counting on. But that isn't to say I don't think we can be competitive in 2019.

 

I should have prefaced my post with that I knew you were just putting his post in perspective and that we should all keep in mind that this was a pre-existing condition. I think the takeaway from this line of thought is that we have a a great deal of upside and selling opened roster spots that give us a head start figuring out the pieces.

 

There are not all going to work out be we have many possibilities.

 

1) I would love to see what a 235 lbs version of Miguel Sano could do.

2) Romero and Gonsalves working out would dramatically change the trajectory of this team. There are enough other SP prospects that we will be in darn good shape for several years if those two guys can get r' done.

3) Let Cave, Wade, and Kepler sort out who is a starter and who is a back-up. Between them we should be able to come up with a good outfield.

4) I don't think Mauer is part of the problem but he is not exactly the solution either and we need to solidify that position. Let's give Austin a shot this year and look at Rooker in spring training. Maybe even move Kepler to 1B and spread the 1B/DH ABS out between Kepler, Austin, and Rooker.

5) Can we get Escobar back on a 2-3 yr deal

6. Use a couple BP spots for auditions the rest of the year. FA relievers are not the best investment but we may have no choice. Let's do everything we can to find internal solutions.

 

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#82 Kelly Vance

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Posted 01 August 2018 - 02:37 PM

 

You don't think if they thought he'd be good, that they would re-sign him? I'm not sure I follow.

Hey, Mike, don't listen to me.  I'm just saying if the Boss wants to pay him, its his deal. Maybe the family needs money. I see him pitch and he doesn't look terrible. Then he does.  And with runners on. I keep hoping he'd get hot and shut his critics up. I'm pretty sure he'd clear waivers. 

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#83 yarnivek1972

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Posted 01 August 2018 - 02:45 PM

You do realize that the only change in terms of competing next year with the deadline moves is that we lost Pressly, right? So, while I agree the list is long, that's exactly why selling was the right move. This team had prohibitive issues both immediate and long-term. Moving those players had significant value to next year in the form of auditioning prospects now. Hopefully, we can find a solution or two and bring the required off-season moves into better focus.


Except that there is no indication from the FO or the manager that they intend to do that. If they did, where are Wade, Romero, Busenitz, Curtiss, and even add Tyler Austin to the list?

Edited by yarnivek1972, 01 August 2018 - 02:49 PM.

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#84 Twinsoholic

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Posted 01 August 2018 - 03:24 PM

 

You're forgetting Pineda. The Twins don't need two starters. I'm not sure they even need one if Romero goes into the offseason looking strong.

 

You are correct: I did forget Pineda. I would disagree with you about the Twins acquiring 2 starters from trades and/or free agency if the 2 hypothetical 2 starters--I am thinking of 2 starters who are least as good as Berrios (a tall order I'Iladmit--maybe one comes from a trade and one from free agency). Having two more top starting pitchers helps take the Twins to the next level (well beyond Cleveland so that the Twins can battle the top AL teams in the playoffs), and it would give them a lot of starting depth in the minors in case of injuries and/or the need to make trades during the 2019 season. 

 

The Twins starting pitching depth in the minors is expanding--I don't remember it being this deep with strong prospects. Don't stop with what we have under contract for next season. Start next season with an even stronger rotation and a much stronger bullpen.


#85 Minfidel

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Posted 01 August 2018 - 07:18 PM

 

Another lost season and lost assests. The Twins have become the AAAA for the big market clubs. Contending and competing are 2 different things and the Twins are only competitors. When the competing is over by July they trade away their assets for hope and prayer prospects that have proven nothing at the major league level they need them to perform at. 

Contending in 2020 will only happen if current prospects like Royce Lewis, Alex Kirilloff, Brusdar Graterol, Nick Gordon, Stephen Gonsalves, Brent Rooker, Trevor Larnach turn into what we hope for and progress enough to get to the majors by then because the current roster is incapable of doing it without a monsterous amount of help.

What lost assets? They traded guys who are going to be free agents, or otherwise weren't part of the long-term plan? Pressly was the only one who's career could be considered to be on the rise, but maybe the FO doesn't like what's in his head. These guys (even Escobar in a career year) were chips, not assets. 

 

Assets are guys like those you mentioned, Royce Lewis, Alex Kirilloff, Brusdar Graterol, Nick Gordon, Stephen Gonsalves, Brent Rooker, and Trevor Larnach. Did you see any of them getting sent out in a lost season?

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#86 mattk

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Posted 02 August 2018 - 12:30 AM

One guy I was really looking forward to seeing was Taylor Rogers. He needs a little more seasoning, but I think he's going to be a real asset (probably for another team). When he gets out on the mound, he's got the deer-in-the-headlights look about him, and no wonder--if he does struggle a bit he gets yanked. Don't know what the deal is between him and Molitor (or whoever), but he could get a little more leeway based on how much leeway much more experienced pitchers like Rodney and Belisle get. Now is the time to let him get more mound experience. Maybe I'm wrong.


#87 yarnivek1972

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Posted 02 August 2018 - 05:08 AM

Rogers is a good loogy, he just hasn’t been as effective vs RHB as he was the last two years. RHB have an .860 OPS. Last year it was about 100 points lower. He’s having his best year vs LHB to the tune of a .460 OPS. Of course, MOY keeps using him in non loogy situations. That doesn’t help matters.

Edited by yarnivek1972, 02 August 2018 - 05:13 AM.

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#88 Major League Ready

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Posted 02 August 2018 - 08:04 AM

 

Except that there is no indication from the FO or the manager that they intend to do that. If they did, where are Wade, Romero, Busenitz, Curtiss, and even add Tyler Austin to the list?

 

We are less than 48 hours removed.They are never going to just go nuts with DFAing players to open spots the way some fans would like. Let's see what happens in the next 2-3 weeks.


#89 yarnivek1972

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Posted 02 August 2018 - 08:20 AM

We are less than 48 hours removed. They are never going to just go nuts with DFAing players to open spots the way some fans would like. Let's see what happens in the next 2-3 weeks.

And this is why many have called it a half-@ssed rebuild. As Lucy always said to Charlie Brown: don’t be wishy washy.

If you are getting rid of players that aren’t in the plans for 2019, then they ALL should be gone in favor of players who will be or might be. Any other way is just wasting at bats and innings.

Edited by yarnivek1972, 02 August 2018 - 08:20 AM.


#90 Major League Ready

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Posted 02 August 2018 - 08:40 AM

 

You are correct: I did forget Pineda. I would disagree with you about the Twins acquiring 2 starters from trades and/or free agency if the 2 hypothetical 2 starters--I am thinking of 2 starters who are least as good as Berrios (a tall order I'Iladmit--maybe one comes from a trade and one from free agency). Having two more top starting pitchers helps take the Twins to the next level (well beyond Cleveland so that the Twins can battle the top AL teams in the playoffs), and it would give them a lot of starting depth in the minors in case of injuries and/or the need to make trades during the 2019 season. 

 

The Twins starting pitching depth in the minors is expanding--I don't remember it being this deep with strong prospects. Don't stop with what we have under contract for next season. Start next season with an even stronger rotation and a much stronger bullpen.

 

I think it's too early to tell. Berrios, Gibson, and Odorizzi are set baring injury. They are going to take a good look at Mejia. That leaves only one position open If he gives reason for the team to believe he is part of the solution. They have at least three solid contenders for the final spot in Pineida, Romero, and Gonsalves. Pineida is only a few days away from starting a rehab assignment. The Twins desire to acquire additional SP is going to be dampened if he finishes the season looking good. Romero is another guy who could diminish the odds of the Twins acquiring addition SPs this winter with a good showing the rest of 2018.  

 

They have additional depth in Slegers, Littell, DeJong, and even Stewart. Alcala will get here quickly if he can gain a little better control. I just don't think it makes any sense to say we need to SPs until we see what happens the rest of the season. 

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#91 Mike Sixel

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Posted 02 August 2018 - 08:43 AM

 

I think it's too early to tell. Berrios, Gibson, and Odorizzi are set baring injury. They are going to take a good look at Mejia. That leaves only one position open If he gives reason for the team to believe he is part of the solution. They have at least three solid contenders for the final spot in Pineida, Romero, and Gonsalves. Pineida is only a few days away from starting a rehab assignment. The Twins desire to acquire additional SP is going to be dampened if he finishes the season looking good. Romero is another guy who could diminish the odds of the Twins acquiring addition SPs this winter with a good showing the rest of 2018.  

 

They have additional depth in Slegers, Littell, DeJong, and even Stewart. Alcala will get here quickly if he can gain a little better control. I just don't think it makes any sense to say we need to SPs until we see what happens the rest of the season. 

 

I'd be shocked if they feel they need more than 1, and that would only be for one of two reasons:

 

leadership (and I think that matters more for pitchers, but they seem to really think it matter)

TOP END pitching.

 

They are set at number 4-AAAA types.....as you point out.

 

So, I don't agree that SP should be the primary focus. That remains MIF and 1B and C. The other option is to upgrade the OF by trading Kepler and some minor league players for a better OF, but I checked the leaderboards last night....that's harder than it seems.

It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 


#92 yarnivek1972

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Posted 02 August 2018 - 08:45 AM

I don’t think Odorizzi is set in stone. Light pencil maybe. He is certainly a non tender candidate. If Pineda comes back and looks good in September, I think he is almost certain to be unless he shows dramatic improvement.

What’s the point of spending of $8 mil (likely his 2019 arb award) on a .7 bWAR pitcher who rarely goes deeper than 5 innings? The Twins are getting that from Mejia for $ 600 K.
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#93 Mike Sixel

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Posted 02 August 2018 - 08:52 AM

 

I don’t think Odorizzi is set in stone. Light pencil maybe. He is certainly a non tender candidate. If Pineda comes back and looks good in September, I think he is almost certain to be unless he shows dramatic improvement.

What’s the point of spending of $8 mil (likely his 2019 arb award) on a .7 bWAR pitcher who rarely goes deeper than 5 innings? The Twins are getting that from Mejia for $ 600 K.

 

Two points:

 

Certainty has real value. They can be relatively sure Odorizzi will pitch 30ish games next year. That has real value.

 

I believe ODO has an option left....so if they want, they can send him down.

 

Bonus:

He strikes me as a guy that would REALLY do well with a move to the bullpen. If htey somehow have "too many" SPs next year, I'd move him over. You can always move him back, since he's a veteran.

It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 


#94 yarnivek1972

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Posted 02 August 2018 - 09:04 AM

That’s exactly what I’m worried about: 30 “ish” games. 😎

I just don’t see the cost outweighing the benefits.

The Twins have probably 4 or 5 guys that can pitch as well as Odorizzi has this year. If they tender him, it might preclude the FO from seeking a better option because “that slot is filled”.

Sure, maybe he would work in the pen. Maybe not. He’s never pitched in relief on a regular basis in his pro career. Some guys make the adjustment. Some don’t. Are you willing to risk $8 mil (that could be spent elsewhere) to find out?
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#95 spycake

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Posted 02 August 2018 - 09:08 AM

I believe ODO has an option left....so if they want, they can send him down.


Odorizzi hits 5 years service time in 3 days, I think. And with that comes the right to refuse any optional assignment. So this isn't a factor anymore.

#96 Mike Sixel

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Posted 02 August 2018 - 09:08 AM

 

That’s exactly what I’m worried about: 30 “ish” games.

I just don’t see the cost outweighing the benefits.

The Twins have probably 4 or 5 guys that can pitch as well as Odorizzi has this year. If they tender him, it might preclude the FO from seeking a better option because “that slot is filled”.

Sure, maybe he would work in the pen. Maybe not. He’s never pitched in relief on a regular basis in his pro career. Some guys make the adjustment. Some don’t. Are you willing to risk $8 mil (that could be spent elsewhere) to find out?

 

IMO, the 8MM is irrelevant, I don't see any way, short of signing Machado or Harper, they spend their budget next year.

 

I really think we under value certainty a lot when talking aboutmoving to a minor league pitcher....we also under value the ability to send guys up and down.

 

I would not be surprised if they keep him, I would not be surprised if they don't.

 

As for the "better option"......IMO, given their depth, they aren't signing 2 (or trading for 2) new SP next year. 

It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 


#97 Mike Sixel

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Posted 02 August 2018 - 09:09 AM

 

Odorizzi hits 5 years service time in 3 days, I think. And with that comes the right to refuse any optional assignment. So this isn't a factor anymore.

 

thanks, it only slightly changes my opinion, but it lessons it a tiny bit. Like, barely can see it, it is so small....

It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 


#98 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 02 August 2018 - 09:45 AM

 

The Twins have probably 4 or 5 guys that can pitch as well as Odorizzi has this year. If they tender him, it might preclude the FO from seeking a better option because “that slot is filled”.

Every year, the Twins have guys who can pitch like Odorizzi.

 

The problem is that the Twins need to have guys who will pitch like Odorizzi.

 

Every year we go through this rigamarole: too many starters, replace a league average guy with a prospect, yadda yadda yadda.

 

And every friggin' year, it bites the Twins in the ass no later than May 1st, sometimes as early as Opening Day.

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#99 yarnivek1972

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Posted 02 August 2018 - 09:57 AM

IMO, the 8MM is irrelevant, I don't see any way, short of signing Machado or Harper, they spend their budget next year.

I really think we under value certainty a lot when talking about moving to a minor league pitcher....we also under value the ability to send guys up and down.

I would not be surprised if they keep him, I would not be surprised if they don't.

As for the "better option"......IMO, given their depth, they aren't signing 2 (or trading for 2) new SP next year.


Since neither you or I know what their budget will be, that is a meaningless statement. I’d say it is pretty likely they spend whatever Pohlad allows. Will that be less than 2018? Almost certainly. A lot less? Probably. 20% less? Wouldn’t surprise me.

I don’t mind certainty as long as it is sufficient quality. Odorizzi almost certainly won’t pitch even 170 innings this year. Keeping in mind he had the advantage (such as it was) of starting the first game of the season. Odorizzi will also almost certainly see his ERA and WHIP go up for the fourth consecutive season. That’s not good. He’s going to post about a .7 or .8 bWAR this year. Isn’t that the definition of someone you should be looking to replace?

You’re right. The Twins are not likely to pursue two new starting pitchers. But, maybe if they jettison Odorizzi, they will go after one who will be better. Hopefully someone trending in the right direction.
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#100 jimmer

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Posted 02 August 2018 - 10:10 AM

Every year, the Twins have guys who can pitch like Odorizzi.

The problem is that the Twins need to have guys who will pitch like Odorizzi.

Every year we go through this rigamarole: too many starters, replace a league average guy with a prospect, yadda yadda yadda.

And every friggin' year, it bites the Twins in the ass no later than May 1st, sometimes as early as Opening Day.

yeah, there is a difference between depth and MLB quality depth.
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