Jump to content

Providing independent coverage of the Minnesota Twins.
Photo

Article: MIN 12, TOR 6: More Like Er-win Sweep-tana!

ervin santana mitch garver matt belisle
  • Please log in to reply
37 replies to this topic

#1 Tom Froemming

Tom Froemming

    Content Editor

  • Administrator
  • 2,408 posts

Posted 25 July 2018 - 06:47 PM

Am I right!? Ervin Santana made an encouraging 2018 debut as the Twins managed to pull off a sweep at Toronto, scoring six runs in the top of the 11th inning. I spent much of the Royals series wondering aloud on here if the Twins taking a downturn before the deadline may be for the best, but these last three games have been fun. I mean, not really keep the band together fun, but still.Snapshot (chart via FanGraphs)
Ervin Santana: 50 Game Score, 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K, 3 BB, 61.9% strikes
Bullpen: 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K, 1 BB
Lineup: 6-for-17 w/RISP, 12 LOB
WPA of 0.1 or higher: Garver .396, Kepler .364, Belisle .289, Duke .140
WPA of -0.1 or lower: Morrison -.143, Hildenberger -.408
Download attachment: WinChart725.png
Let’s go around the horn …

First Base
It’s great to see Ervin back, and his 2018 debut has to be considered a success. After a much longer recovery than expected followed by some concerning reports throughout the early stages of his minor league rehab assignment, Santana didn’t pitch a gem but he gave his team a chance to win.

Santana topped out at 91.1 mph, but relied heavily on his offspeed stuff. According to Baseball Savant, only 25 of his 97 pitches were fastballs. He threw 37 changeups and 35 sliders. Last season, Ervin averaged 93.1 mph on his four-seamer and only threw his changeup 10.3 percent of the time.

It’ll be really interesting to follow Santana’s pitch usage, but as a veteran who’s had to make plenty of adjustments over his career, one would think he can still be an asset even without his best stuff going.

Second Base
Trevor Hildenberger’s having a weird year. He gave up three earned runs in an inning of work today, coughing up the lead in the eighth inning in the process. He’s now given up 21 earned runs this season, 11 of which have come in three particularly ugly appearances. But hey, he’s been pretty awesome in those other 44 games.

It was all OK, because the Twins were bailed out by ... Matt Belisle? Wait, that can’t be right.

OK, so Matty B pitched his way into trouble and then was aided by terrible baserunning by Kendrys Morales, but he did pitch a scoreless ninth inning. And he wasn’t done! Belisle came back out for the 10th, gave up a leadoff single, but again worked a scoreless inning.

Just gonna go ahead and pencil Matt Belisle into my projected 2019 Minnesota Twins bullpen right now.

Third Base
Max Kepler, well ... he had a bad moment.

Apparently Max didn’t inherit those dancer’s feet :) Kepler drove in the go-ahead run in the top of the 11th inning with a bases-loaded hit by pitch. Maybe not the most heroic way to pick up the game-winning RBI, but whatever works.

The crazy part was the Twins just kept scoring in the 11th inning, thanks in large part to ...

Home Plate
Mitch Garver. He was the heartbeat of the Twins offense today. Garver singled to drive in the Twins first run in the second inning, hit a go-ahead home run in the sixth, added an RBI single in the eighth inning and then delivered a two-run double in the 11th.

Garver entered this game having hit .308 with an .868 OPS over his previous 30 games. It was also great to see things work out so that Mitch was catching Santana’s first game back. Forming a battery with such a veteran is only going to help Garver’s development behind the plate.

Bullpen Usage
Here’s a quick look at the number of pitches thrown by the bullpen over the past five days:
Download attachment: Bullpen725.png
AL Central Standings
CLE 55-46
MIN 47-53 (-7.5)
DET 44-60 (-12.5)
CHW 36-64 (-18.5)
KC 31-70 (-24)

Next Three Games
Thu at BOS, 6:10 pm CT: Kyle Gibson vs. Brian Johnson
Fri at BOS, 6:10 pm CT: Lance Lynn vs. Chris Sale
Sat at BOS, 6:10 pm CT: TBD

Last Three Games
MIN 5, TOR 0: All-Star, Indeed
MIN 8, TOR 3: Twins Cruise Over Toronto
KC 5, MIN 3: Royals Sweep Twins, Butera Hits Inside-the-Park Homer (Seriously)

Click here to view the article
  • USAFChief, glunn and Jerr like this

Find me on Twitter @TFTwins and subscribe to my YouTube channel.


#2 Brandon

Brandon

    Senior Member

  • Member
  • 2,000 posts

Posted 25 July 2018 - 07:08 PM

So i guess were back to wait and see after this sweep in terms of selling? I mean i can see Lynn still being traded but not sure about anyone else if we get to the deadline 5 maybe 6 games tops back.

#3 Nine of twelve

Nine of twelve

    Minnesota Twins

  • Member
  • 2,531 posts
  • LocationEarth, for the time being

Posted 25 July 2018 - 07:09 PM

 

It’ll be really interesting to follow Santana’s pitch usage, but as a veteran who’s had to make plenty of adjustments over his career, one would think he can still be an asset even without his best stuff going.
 

The question is, an asset for which team?


#4 Brandon

Brandon

    Senior Member

  • Member
  • 2,000 posts

Posted 25 July 2018 - 07:10 PM

Also it looks like Sano could be back anytime now. He could take over DH and split with Escobar and Mauer on a rotation......we could release Morrison at that point since the results just arent there.
  • DocBauer and sloopjont like this

#5 Danchat

Danchat

    Pro Bowl Armchair QB

  • Member
  • 5,181 posts

Posted 25 July 2018 - 07:14 PM

It's cool that the Twins are beating up on some of the bad teams... Toronto's roster looks a lot worse than their record implies IMO. I still fully expect the Twins to trade some players within the week. I don't suspect the Twins match up to the Red Sox like they did in the last series.

 

 

 

So i guess were back to wait and see after this sweep in terms of selling? I mean i can see Lynn still being traded but not sure about anyone else if we get to the deadline 5 maybe 6 games tops back.

I mean, sure, someone will probably take Lynn and give you a non-prospect for him. The Twins are probably better off starting Mejia, and I can't imagine teams vying for the postseason would want him when there are better options out there.

  • SwainZag, wsnydes and bighat like this

Check out my work at Purple Pain, a Vikings forum: 

Analyzing the Past Decade of Vikings Offseasons


#6 ScooterDance

ScooterDance

    Cedar Rapids Kernels

  • Member
  • 219 posts

Posted 25 July 2018 - 07:17 PM

Jesus if we had taken 2/3 from an awful KC team we’d be only 5.5 back with a mega soft next 30 games or so.

Season of missed opportunities.
  • glunn, Sconnie, DocBauer and 4 others like this

#7 Brock Beauchamp

Brock Beauchamp

    A Little Teapot

  • Owner
  • 22,954 posts

Posted 25 July 2018 - 07:25 PM

 

Jesus if we had taken 2/3 from an awful KC team we’d be only 5.5 back with a mega soft next 30 games or so.

Season of missed opportunities.

Yep.

  • DocBauer, Dozier's Glorious Hair and bighat like this

#8 jorgenswest

jorgenswest

    Senior Member

  • Member
  • 4,494 posts

Posted 25 July 2018 - 07:55 PM

Huge game from Garver, game saving innings from Garver and a big extra innings double from a Dozier lead to nice win. It is great to be able to just sit and enjoy the game of baseball.
  • Hosken Bombo Disco and Dozier's Glorious Hair like this

#9 Monkeypaws

Monkeypaws

    Senior Member

  • Member
  • 2,346 posts

Posted 25 July 2018 - 08:30 PM

Twins won a WS with Brian Harper as catcher, a very good hitter who was deficient on the defense. 

 

I think Garver is better defensively, but a notch below offensively.

 

I'd like to see the Twins turn it over to him next season, with Castro as backup.

  • Mike Sixel, Loosey, LA VIkes Fan and 5 others like this

#10 gocgo

gocgo

    Member

  • Member
  • 1,606 posts

Posted 25 July 2018 - 08:35 PM

 

Also it looks like Sano could be back anytime now. He could take over DH and split with Escobar and Mauer on a rotation......we could release Morrison at that point since the results just arent there.

Started a great DP to end the game today.I don't see him being released.And I don't see Sano back that soon.He's had one good game at Rochester.

Mind your own biscuits and life will be gravy.


#11 jorgenswest

jorgenswest

    Senior Member

  • Member
  • 4,494 posts

Posted 25 July 2018 - 08:44 PM

Twins won a WS with Brian Harper as catcher, a very good hitter who was deficient on the defense.

I think Garver is better defensively, but a notch below offensively.

I'd like to see the Twins turn it over to him next season, with Castro as backup.


I think he has improved this year. I think he is spending a lot of time outside of games both working on technique and learning the league. The development of a catcher is a slow one.
  • glunn, DocBauer, lsh and 2 others like this

#12 Brock Beauchamp

Brock Beauchamp

    A Little Teapot

  • Owner
  • 22,954 posts

Posted 25 July 2018 - 09:17 PM

 

I think he has improved this year. I think he is spending a lot of time outside of games both working on technique and learning the league. The development of a catcher is a slow one.

When Castro went down, people were excited to see Garver.

 

I thought the loss of Castro was possibly the worst thing that could happen to Garver.

 

It appears Garver is improving but I think he could improve more backing up Castro.

  • DocBauer, howieramone2 and wsnydes like this

#13 jorgenswest

jorgenswest

    Senior Member

  • Member
  • 4,494 posts

Posted 25 July 2018 - 09:43 PM

When Castro went down, people were excited to see Garver.
 
I thought the loss of Castro was possibly the worst thing that could happen to Garver.
 
It appears Garver is improving but I think he could improve more backing up Castro.


They likely had a plan for his development and Castro was a part of that plan. Wilson was plan B. I wish they had a better plan B but any veteran catcher signing with the Twins knew plan B starts in AAA. I hope and kind of expect we will see Garver starting 4 times a week. He hasn’t been catching Gibson or Berrios very often. When he does that will be a sign of getting the larger workload. In fact he had been catching only Lynn and Idorizzi for a while. This week he caught both Mejia and Santana. The Twins may already be increasing his usage. I hope so.
  • Brock Beauchamp, glunn, LA VIkes Fan and 3 others like this

#14 DocBauer

DocBauer

    Senior Member

  • Member
  • 5,794 posts

Posted 25 July 2018 - 10:07 PM

They likely had a plan for his development and Castro was a part of that plan. Wilson was plan B. I wish they had a better plan B but any veteran catcher signing with the Twins knew plan B starts in AAA. I hope and kind of expect we will see Garver starting 4 times a week. He hasn’t been catching Gibson or Berrios very often. When he does that will be a sign of getting the larger workload. In fact he had been catching only Lynn and Idorizzi for a while. This week he caught both Mejia and Santana. The Twins may already be increasing his usage. I hope so.


THIS. ABSOLUTELY.

Some want to like on Castro's poor production before he hit the surgeon's table. But unknown to us, he was playing on a bad knee. I believe all along Garver was supposed to be the backup and learn and be groomed. Suddenly he was thrust in to a role not intended. Wilson was supposed to be the veteran AAA catcher to work with the staff there, and come up for a short stint here and there if necessary. Obviously things haven't worked out that way.
"Nice catch Hayes...don't ever f*****g do it again."

--Lou Brown


#15 DocBauer

DocBauer

    Senior Member

  • Member
  • 5,794 posts

Posted 25 July 2018 - 11:20 PM

BTW, no rose colored glasses, he wasn't dominate and threw way too many pitches, but the SO were OK, and 1 more IP would have still been a quality start. Yeah, I know, optimistic. Just saying, was better than I expected. Question I have is, another, better start or two, is he trade value with the August waiver wire? Or do you bank on a fully healthy Santana for a 1 year deal for about 7M with incentives for 2019?
"Nice catch Hayes...don't ever f*****g do it again."

--Lou Brown


#16 Brandon

Brandon

    Senior Member

  • Member
  • 2,000 posts

Posted 25 July 2018 - 11:24 PM

Started a great DP to end the game today. I don't see him being released. And I don't see Sano back that soon. He's had one good game at Rochester.


I meant by the trade deadline give or take a few days.

#17 Aerodeliria

Aerodeliria

    Pensacola Blue Wahoos

  • Member
  • 629 posts

Posted 25 July 2018 - 11:29 PM

Wow! A sweep of the Blue Jays...Garver was hitting everything in sight. Oh how I wish I could have watched this one. 

 

Those must have been a couple of interesting (ugly?) innings by Belisle. Correct me if I'm wrong, but it seems as if Toronto bailed Belisle out instead of the other way around. I can imagine him being brought into games more frequently instead of being released...

 

I think Hildenberger is STILL the most reliable person in the pen, but he has pitched in four of the last five. He was probably exhausted.


#18 jkcarew

jkcarew

    Rochester Red Wings

  • Member
  • 1,537 posts

Posted 25 July 2018 - 11:46 PM

Twins won a WS with Brian Harper as catcher, a very good hitter who was deficient on the defense. 
 
I think Garver is better defensively, but a notch below offensively.
 
I'd like to see the Twins turn it over to him next season, with Castro as backup.


I think Garver can be as good offensively, and his arm is better than Harper’s. Harper’s receiving skills, though, were good...Garver, yikes!

We’ll see, I hope. Need to play him (basically) every day behind the plate and see how much better it can get.

Nobody was giving Harper much of a chance. His first year with the Twins was his first shot at being an every-day catcher...at age 28. Garver is 27.
  • Eephus and sloopjont like this

#19 bighat

bighat

    Sombrero Grande

  • Member
  • 3,043 posts
  • LocationGuatemala

Posted 26 July 2018 - 06:09 AM

Credit to Santana, he gritted this one out. Have to tip your cap to the guy. First MLB start in a long, long time.

 

When Garver gets hot, he really is a great addition to this lineup!

 

Twins score 12 runs, Morrison goes 0-4 with two K's and 3 men LOB. His batting average is now .192. Only Joey Gallo (who has 25 HR and 55 RBI) and Chris Davis (just plain terrible at .153) are worse among qualified batters. That's in all of MLB, not just the AL.

 

That sweep to KC looks worse every day.

 

Welp, on to Beantown. I would absolutely love to see the Twins go on a tear and win that series! I know it's a pipe dream, but that's what being a baseball fan's all about.


#20 Doctor Wu

Doctor Wu

    Pensacola Blue Wahoos

  • Member
  • 777 posts

Posted 26 July 2018 - 07:20 AM

 

Started a great DP to end the game today.I don't see him being released.And I don't see Sano back that soon.He's had one good game at Rochester.

I agree, No point in releasing Morrison. Sure, he's been a major disappointment this year. but I keep hoping he'll get hot before the month is over (hmm... not much time left) or in early August, and then maybe maybe maybe some team will give up a low level prospect for him. Gotta keep hoping for a miracle.




Also tagged with one or more of these keywords: ervin santana, mitch garver, matt belisle