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Article: GM For A Deadline, Part Two

kyle gibson fernando rodney
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#21 Brandon

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Posted 24 July 2018 - 09:15 AM

That pool of international cash would come as a piece from all trades. 100,000 here, 250,000 there, 350,000 and even 500,000 or more. But if we get a little bit from 5-7 trades we should be able to get 1 - 2 million ans sign a good prospect next June.

#22 Mike Sixel

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Posted 24 July 2018 - 09:22 AM

Also i may use this as an opportunity to build up my international signing bonus pool for next year if I can or this one too. The prospects are gonna suck as its a buyers market but getting a large pool of cash together we may be able to sign a top international prospect next June or before time runs out on this signing period but before the next international signing period begins next July.

Can't trade for next year's money. But you can for this year's. I don't know who is left.

KLAW recently answered my question about Gibson by saying he thought they could compete next year, so he would hold him. I would deal him for the right package. As for his worth? He's projected to be better than any brewer starter the rest of the year.

I'd easily deal Lynn, odorrizi, Rodney, Duke, Santana.

Edited by Mike Sixel, 24 July 2018 - 09:22 AM.

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I remain hopeful on Buxton and Sano.....but I'd not bet the franchise on them.


#23 jorgenswest

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Posted 24 July 2018 - 10:03 AM

This seems contradictory? If they trade Gibson because they don't believe he'll sustain this performance, I'm guessing they'd aim higher than "someone like Gibson". 
 
Also, you don't know what the net gain is, because you don't know what return they would get for him, or who their potential off-season targets will be (and what they'd cost). 
 
I certainly could see a scenario where they could get a nice piece for Gibson but replace him in the rotation easily enough


I will try again. Two scenarios..

1) They believe Gibson will sustain his performance. In this case they will need to replace that performance for 2019 in trade or free agency. We disagree on how easy it will be to replace a good performing starting pitcher in the winter. I see a risk in entering 2019 without making the winter trade or free agent signing that replaces Gibson. They have control of Gibson. They can’t control the rest. I hope you are correct and finding good starting pitching can be done easily enough.

2) They don’t believe Gibson will sustain his performance. By all means sell high. If they think he will return to his previous level then he can easily be replaced.

I am keeping him if I think he will pitch similarly next year. A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.
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#24 alarp33

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Posted 24 July 2018 - 10:16 AM

 

I will try again. Two scenarios..

1) They believe Gibson will sustain his performance. In this case they will need to replace that performance for 2019 in trade or free agency. We disagree on how easy it will be to replace a good performing starting pitcher in the winter. I see a risk in entering 2019 without making the winter trade or free agent signing that replaces Gibson. They have control of Gibson. They can’t control the rest. I hope you are correct and finding good starting pitching can be done easily enough.

2) They don’t believe Gibson will sustain his performance. By all means sell high. If they think he will return to his previous level then he can easily be replaced.

I am keeping him if I think he will pitch similarly next year. A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.

 

I understand what you are saying now. How you phrased it in your previous post is what confused me. 

 

I wouldn't trade Gibson if I was convinced he was going to sustain solid production.I'm in the camp where I'm still not totally convinced

Edited by alarp33, 24 July 2018 - 10:17 AM.

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"The game has changed since I've entered, it's for bright, energetic negotiators moreso than anything I possess." - Terry Ryan 2007


#25 Brandon

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Posted 24 July 2018 - 11:35 AM

Can't trade for next year's money. But you can for this year's. I don't know who is left.

KLAW recently answered my question about Gibson by saying he thought they could compete next year, so he would hold him. I would deal him for the right package. As for his worth? He's projected to be better than any brewer starter the rest of the year.

I'd easily deal Lynn, odorrizi, Rodney, Duke, Santana.

I was just thinking if one of the top 30 prospects on next years international prospect list is 16 in say June, we could sign him in this years bonus if he will agree to what we have left available. If we have say 1.5 million available we might be able to sign one of next years top 30 with this years money if we trade for 250,000 int bonus pool here, 350,000 int bonus pool there ( in addition to the prospects of course).....and if we do that on all our trades...we have 6 or 7 potential players available in trade. Why not see what we can sign next june with that? And then have next years money for july 2nd too.

Edited by Brandon, 24 July 2018 - 11:37 AM.

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#26 Mike Sixel

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Posted 24 July 2018 - 11:38 AM

 

I was just thinking if one of the top 30 prospects on next years international prospect list is 16 in say June, we could sign him in this years bonus if he will agree to what we have left available. If we have say 1.5 million available we might be able to sign one of next years top 30 with this years money if we trade for 250,000 here, 350,000 there.....and if we do that on all our trades...we have 6 or 7 potential players available in trade. Why not see what we can sign next june with that? And then have next years money for july 2nd too.

 

got it. makes sense, if there are any of those left that are good/great prospects.

 

I know people don't think the rankings mean much for these young guys, but they actually appear to be as good a predictor as draft picks......more expensive guys have a higher likelihood of being good.

  • matthew0211 likes this

I remain hopeful on Buxton and Sano.....but I'd not bet the franchise on them.


#27 ChrisKnutson

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Posted 24 July 2018 - 11:49 AM

I like Gibson, but I’m still not completely sold. I mean, what if this is just a career year for him?

The Yankees have the biggest need for a starter, and one of the better systems, sooo I’d say (realistically) sell high on Gibby for Domingo German and Dillion Tate.

#28 birdwatcher

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Posted 24 July 2018 - 12:15 PM

 

If you feel you have a chance in 2019. You don't trade Gibson. You try to acquire more guys like Gibson or better. 

 

If you don't feel you have a chance in 2019... Then trade him but you end up jumping from window to window until you find the window that opens just right. 

 

I think the Twins have a chance in 2019. 

 

Yeah, you don't trade away a guy giving you fairly consistent #3 starter performance when you lack a surplus of those guys. Aside from Berrios, who else can you reasonably count on to give you better than back-half performance? Trade from THAT surplus, especially the ones who have almost zero chance of improvement. Which means you look to move Lynn and Odor Easy and plug in the MLB ready prospects. And then hope a couple among Romero, Pineda, May, and Mejia et al give you better than #4 starter performance. With Littel, Slegers, Gonsalves et al we have plenty of guys ready to give us back-end performance in line with what we're getting now from Lynn and Odor Easy.

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#29 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 24 July 2018 - 12:23 PM

 

Yeah, you don't trade away a guy giving you fairly consistent #3 starter performance when you lack a surplus of those guys. Aside from Berrios, who else can you reasonably count on to give you better than back-half performance? Trade from THAT surplus, especially the ones who have almost zero chance of improvement. Which means you look to move Lynn and Odor Easy and plug in the MLB ready prospects. And then hope a couple among Romero, Pineda, May, and Mejia et al give you better than #4 starter performance. With Littel, Slegers, Gonsalves et al we have plenty of guys ready to give us back-end performance in line with what we're getting now from Lynn and Odor Easy.

 

I tend to agree with you on Gibby, with the caveat that I'd move him if the front office thinks this is a mirage. I don't for the record, and think he replicate this season in 2019...

 

That said, I think you're being a bit hard on him calling him a 3. He's been a well above average starting pitcher this season. Perhaps you don't view a 3 as an average pitcher, but I think that's a bit unfair to Gibby.

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#30 caninatl04

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Posted 24 July 2018 - 01:46 PM

 

Which contending teams might Gibson or Odorizzi help?I would imagine most contenders already have decent rotations, so teams might be looking to upgrade their #5 and less likely to meet what the Twins would be asking for.  

There are 10 contending teams in the NL. A #4 starter would help, by my count, 6 of them


#31 caninatl04

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Posted 24 July 2018 - 01:47 PM

 

I like Gibson, but I’m still not completely sold. I mean, what if this is just a career year for him?

The Yankees have the biggest need for a starter, and one of the better systems, sooo I’d say (realistically) sell high on Gibby for Domingo German and Dillion Tate.

I would do it in an instant.


#32 Mike Sixel

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Posted 24 July 2018 - 02:01 PM

 

There are 10 contending teams in the NL. A #4 starter would help, by my count, 6 of them

 

Wut?

 

He's been a number 2 for over a year now. 

 

I really don't get what people are typing about Gibson on these threads.

  • slash129, SF Twins Fan, gman and 1 other like this

I remain hopeful on Buxton and Sano.....but I'd not bet the franchise on them.


#33 alarp33

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Posted 24 July 2018 - 02:14 PM

Wut?

He's been a number 2 for over a year now.

I really don't get what people are typing about Gibson on these threads.

It’s very likely your definition of #2 is far different than others definition. If Kyle Gibson is your 2nd best starter it’s unlikely you are a serious contender.

Edited by alarp33, 24 July 2018 - 02:15 PM.

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#34 caninatl04

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Posted 24 July 2018 - 02:15 PM

 

Yeah, you don't trade away a guy giving you fairly consistent #3 starter performance when you lack a surplus of those guys. Aside from Berrios, who else can you reasonably count on to give you better than back-half performance? Trade from THAT surplus, especially the ones who have almost zero chance of improvement. Which means you look to move Lynn and Odor Easy and plug in the MLB ready prospects. And then hope a couple among Romero, Pineda, May, and Mejia et al give you better than #4 starter performance. With Littel, Slegers, Gonsalves et al we have plenty of guys ready to give us back-end performance in line with what we're getting now from Lynn and Odor Easy.

And hope, and pray and say Amen.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=62kxPyNZF3Q

I wanted to believe that there were 2 or 3 or even 4 starters who were oh so close. I believe their combined ERA is over 8.00 and their appearances netted 5 games below.

 

Let me ask-- who might be the starting rotation on opening day 2019?


#35 Mike Sixel

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Posted 24 July 2018 - 02:17 PM

 

It’s very likely your definition of #2 is far different than others definition. If Kyle Gibson is your 2nd best starter it’s unlikely you are a serious contender.

 

gibson is 26th in WAR this year.......what is your definition?

 

he's 49th since the beginning of last year, counting the first half, before he made his change in approach.....of all pitchers with at least 250 innings pitched.

 

His projection for the rest of the year is better than any Brewer pitcher.....

 

I could keep going, but I doubt people are listening.

Edited by Mike Sixel, 24 July 2018 - 02:19 PM.

  • USAFChief, diehardtwinsfan, Twins33 and 2 others like this

I remain hopeful on Buxton and Sano.....but I'd not bet the franchise on them.


#36 alarp33

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Posted 24 July 2018 - 02:23 PM

gibson is 26th in WAR this year.......what is your definition?

he's 49th since the beginning of last year, counting the first half, before he made his change in approach.....of all pitchers with at least 250 innings pitched.

His projection for the rest of the year is better than any Brewer pitcher.....

I could keep going, but I doubt people are listening.


I for one do not judge a pitcher by WAR over a 4 month period. Especially a nearly 31 year old with no track record of sustained success

When I say contender I mean contend for a title. I don’t include a team like the Brewers. Gibson wouldn’t be in the post season rotation for the Astros.

"The game has changed since I've entered, it's for bright, energetic negotiators moreso than anything I possess." - Terry Ryan 2007


#37 Mike Sixel

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Posted 24 July 2018 - 02:27 PM

 

I for one do not judge a pitcher by WAR over a 4 month period. Especially a nearly 31 year old with no track record of sustained success

When I say contender I mean contend for a title. I don’t include a team like the Brewers. Gibson wouldn’t be in the post season rotation for the Astros.

 

The Astros have the best rotation in the game, maybe one of the best in a very long time.....so, sure, he won't crack the best rotation in the game.

 

How about the Yankees? Or the Cubs? He's better than any Cubs pitcher this year.....

 

Basically, the question is.....did he make a real change last year? Is he now a legit number 2? Feel free to think not, but the data for the last 12 months indicates otherwise. Projection systems say otherwise. I bet most teams think he's a 2/3 right now, and for next year. 

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I remain hopeful on Buxton and Sano.....but I'd not bet the franchise on them.


#38 slash129

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Posted 24 July 2018 - 02:30 PM

 

Wut?

 

He's been a number 2 for over a year now. 

 

I really don't get what people are typing about Gibson on these threads.

 

In the AL ...

 

17th in WAR

18th in xFIP

14th in IP (with one less start than most of the field)

 

In ML

 

26th in WAR

31st in xFIP

21st in IP

 

Yes, he is a solid #2 flirting with being a #1.I'm going by current baseball starter economics, not some ideal #2 starter on a super team.

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#39 Tomj14

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Posted 24 July 2018 - 02:32 PM

 

gibson is 26th in WAR this year.......what is your definition?

 

he's 49th since the beginning of last year, counting the first half, before he made his change in approach.....of all pitchers with at least 250 innings pitched.

 

His projection for the rest of the year is better than any Brewer pitcher.....

 

I could keep going, but I doubt people are listening.

14th in innings pitched (AL)

16th in K's (AL)

25th in WHIP (AL)

 


#40 alarp33

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Posted 24 July 2018 - 02:38 PM

The Astros have the best rotation in the game, maybe one of the best in a very long time.....so, sure, he won't crack the best rotation in the game.

How about the Yankees? Or the Cubs? He's better than any Cubs pitcher this year.....

Basically, the question is.....did he make a real change last year? Is he now a legit number 2? Feel free to think not, but the data for the last 12 months indicates otherwise. Projection systems say otherwise. I bet most teams think he's a 2/3 right now, and for next year.

Again, definitions. I think he’s finally turned into a good middle of the rotation starter. For me there’s maybe 20-30 guys in all of baseball I’d label as Aces or 2’s, Gibson wouldn’t be one of them

If Berrios is your 2, Gibson your 3.. it might be a pretty good rotation. Make that 1+2... meh

Edited by alarp33, 24 July 2018 - 02:42 PM.

"The game has changed since I've entered, it's for bright, energetic negotiators moreso than anything I possess." - Terry Ryan 2007




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