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#41 amjgt

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Posted 25 July 2018 - 07:23 PM

Morosi throws out the idea that maybe the Brewers would bite on bigger deal including Gibson.
Thoughts?


Unless you count Peralta as still being in their farm system, the cupboard looks pretty darn bare.

#42 Cap'n Piranha

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Posted 25 July 2018 - 08:48 PM

IMO, the first comment above is meaningless and represent a type of increasingly-common occurrence resulting from the modern phenomenon of people running statistical filters 24x7 for a living. It's an interesting observation, but doesn't even hint at why the right-handed, or the college-playing 1B 'type' would be at a disadvantage relative to all the other first-base 'types' out there. Exactly the same as saying "because, other than the small number of guys that were good, nobody was good".

I agree with the second...and that statement is pretty true of all corner guys with marginal defensive skill and speed.

FWIW, I'm also cautious on Rooker, having to do primarily with his K rate (and yes...he's going to have to be significantly above average offensively to have value as he's more than likely a 1B/DH in the majors.)


First comment is not meaningless, it refers to the reduced margin of error for college first basemen. Every player in the majors was (barring a stacked HS team) the best, most athletic player in their high school team, and probably played shortstop.

College first basemen aren’t at first because they’re not athletic, it’s because everyone else is more athletic already. That only intesifies once they hit the majors, so if they’re coming in with no lesser defensive position as a fallback, they HAVE to hit.

Think about Buxton. Even with his offensive struggles, when healthy his floor is defensive specialist fourth outfielder/pinch runner—he’ll be on a roster. Now imagine he’s not fast enough or athletic enough to play anywhere but first base; Buxton struggles to stick in AAA, let alone MLB.

That’s the problem with drafting a college first basemen; you better be convinced they are a future above average MLB hitter, otherwise it’s a completely wasted pick.

#43 jkcarew

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Posted 25 July 2018 - 10:55 PM

First comment is not meaningless, it refers to the reduced margin of error for college first basemen. Every player in the majors was (barring a stacked HS team) the best, most athletic player in their high school team, and probably played shortstop.
College first basemen aren’t at first because they’re not athletic, it’s because everyone else is more athletic already. That only intesifies once they hit the majors, so if they’re coming in with no lesser defensive position as a fallback, they HAVE to hit.
Think about Buxton. Even with his offensive struggles, when healthy his floor is defensive specialist fourth outfielder/pinch runner—he’ll be on a roster. Now imagine he’s not fast enough or athletic enough to play anywhere but first base; Buxton struggles to stick in AAA, let alone MLB.
That’s the problem with drafting a college first basemen; you better be convinced they are a future above average MLB hitter, otherwise it’s a completely wasted pick.


Agreed. But opposed to a player that didn’t go the college route and is playing 1B in high-A or AA? They’re the ‘least athletic’ at their levels too. What is the disadvantage that the first base ‘type’ coming out of the SEC or PAC 12 has relative to that player? Does Lewis Diaz have a better chance than Rooker because he didn’t play 1B in college? College has nothing to do with it...and right-handedness has little to do with it. We already know first-basemen have to hit really really good...and the analyst’s second comment serves to make that point.

#44 nicksaviking

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Posted 25 July 2018 - 11:19 PM

Notes
I’ve been clear about my distaste for righty-righty college first-base types because, other than Paul Goldschhmidt, Rhys Hoskins, and Erik Karros, those types of players haven’t yielded big-league value this century. [/url]



I agree with the second...and that statement is pretty true of all corner guys with marginal defensive skill and speed.

FWIW, I'm also cautious on Rooker, having to do primarily with his K rate (and yes...he's going to have to be significantly above average offensively to have value as he's more than likely a 1B/DH in the majors.)

I don't blame anyone for putting a skeptical eye to Rooker, but actuallly that part about the RH college bats seemed to be cherry picking and a mischaracterization. That complaint holds less water as hardly any RH college bats end up in the big leagues as firstbase largely dominated by lefties, he excludes all HS and foreign born 1B types as if playing college ball is a detriment for some reason, and Rooker also plays the outfield.

He's excluding tons of available comps by intentionally and unnecessarily limiting his search perimeters.

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#45 jkcarew

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Posted 25 July 2018 - 11:34 PM

I don't blame anyone for putting a skeptical eye to Rooker, but actuallly that part about the RH college bats seemed to be cherry picking and a mischaracterization. That complaint holds less water as hardly any RH college bats end up in the big leagues as it's largely dominated by lefties, he excludes all HS and foreign born 1B types as if playing college ball is a detriment for some reason, and Rooker also plays the outfield.
He's excluding tons of available comps by intentionally and unnecessarily limiting his search perimeters.


Exactly my take on the comment. Not a big deal, just not adding anything meaningful or relevant...which is easy to do when answering questions spontaneously. And it sounds like we both agree with the conclusion of his take on Rooker, which is ‘maybe’.
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#46 redstorm

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Posted 26 July 2018 - 10:41 AM

It's behind a paywall, but it is absolutely worth the read if you subscribe to The Athletic. An oral history of game 7 of the 1991 World Series, many former Twins and Braves players/coaches are quoted.

 

 

https://theathletic....s-oral-history/

Edited by redstorm, 26 July 2018 - 10:42 AM.

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#47 Mike Sixel

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Posted 26 July 2018 - 11:11 AM

He sort of answered.....

mike sixel
1:06 Love your series on killers.....Some Twins fans think the team should keep Escobar, and offer him a QO (they have almost no payroll committed next year).....18MM for Escobar?

 

Jay Jaffe
1:09 Thank you! It's a fun one to write and I'm glad it's been well-received. Escobar doesn't have a very long track record of stellarplay, but I think it's tough to go too far wrong in issuing a QO. On the other hand, it's a dick move by a team if they don't intend to keep him, because as we've seen in recent years, it can crush a mid-level guy's market.

in short, Minnesota is a land of many contrasts, and I'd do the humane thing and trade Escobar at the deadline, then re-evaluate how much I want him back after the season ends.

 

https://www.fangraph...s-chat-7-26-18/

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One of the best opening day rosters in years. Now go get 'em.


#48 dbminn

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Posted 26 July 2018 - 11:26 AM

 

He sort of answered.....

mike sixel
1:06 Love your series on killers.....Some Twins fans think the team should keep Escobar, and offer him a QO (they have almost no payroll committed next year).....18MM for Escobar?

 

Jay Jaffe
1:09 Thank you! It's a fun one to write and I'm glad it's been well-received. Escobar doesn't have a very long track record of stellarplay, but I think it's tough to go too far wrong in issuing a QO. On the other hand, it's a dick move by a team if they don't intend to keep him, because as we've seen in recent years, it can crush a mid-level guy's market.

in short, Minnesota is a land of many contrasts, and I'd do the humane thing and trade Escobar at the deadline, then re-evaluate how much I want him back after the season ends.

 

https://www.fangraph...s-chat-7-26-18/

 

Totally agree about the "killers" series. Also, a great question for Jaffe and a thoughtful answer. 


#49 dbminn

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Posted 26 July 2018 - 11:28 AM

MLB has posted their updated prospect list, including recent draft picks. Kirilloff up to #31, Lewis reaches the top ten and Graterol appears for the first time. 

Edited by dbminn, 26 July 2018 - 11:29 AM.

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#50 Mike Sixel

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Posted 26 July 2018 - 11:31 AM

KLAW gets to the point rather quickly....

 

mike sixel
1:26 Some Twins' fans I interact with think the team should sign Escobar to a QO if they can't extend him. Thoughts on 18MM for Eduardo Escobar? Admittedly, they have very little payroll committed for next year....but, 18MM?

 

Keith Law
1:27 Hardest of passes.

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One of the best opening day rosters in years. Now go get 'em.


#51 Ben Noble

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Posted 26 July 2018 - 11:32 AM

 

He sort of answered.....

mike sixel
1:06 Love your series on killers.....Some Twins fans think the team should keep Escobar, and offer him a QO (they have almost no payroll committed next year).....18MM for Escobar?

 

Jay Jaffe
1:09 Thank you! It's a fun one to write and I'm glad it's been well-received. Escobar doesn't have a very long track record of stellarplay, but I think it's tough to go too far wrong in issuing a QO. On the other hand, it's a dick move by a team if they don't intend to keep him, because as we've seen in recent years, it can crush a mid-level guy's market.

in short, Minnesota is a land of many contrasts, and I'd do the humane thing and trade Escobar at the deadline, then re-evaluate how much I want him back after the season ends.

 

https://www.fangraph...s-chat-7-26-18/

 

He states that he would "trade Escobar at the deadline." But he also acknowledges that there are totally valid arguments for keeping him and offering the QO.

 

I've appreciated the debate on these boards as far as what to do with Escobar, and I myself flip flop on it. It's nice to hear an informed writer with a national perspective and no emotional connection to the team or Escobar basically say that he could reasonably go either way.

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#52 Dman

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Posted 26 July 2018 - 11:38 AM

 

He sort of answered.....

mike sixel
1:06 Love your series on killers.....Some Twins fans think the team should keep Escobar, and offer him a QO (they have almost no payroll committed next year).....18MM for Escobar?

 

Jay Jaffe
1:09 Thank you! It's a fun one to write and I'm glad it's been well-received. Escobar doesn't have a very long track record of stellarplay, but I think it's tough to go too far wrong in issuing a QO. On the other hand, it's a dick move by a team if they don't intend to keep him, because as we've seen in recent years, it can crush a mid-level guy's market.

in short, Minnesota is a land of many contrasts, and I'd do the humane thing and trade Escobar at the deadline, then re-evaluate how much I want him back after the season ends.

 

https://www.fangraph...s-chat-7-26-18/

 

I agree with Jay.Trade him at the deadline then evaluate all your options for constructing the team in 2019 and if you want to offer him a contract he can't refuse then go ahead and do that.If you want to allocate that money to other areas then do that.I don't think the QO is a good solution for either party.

 


#53 amjgt

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Posted 26 July 2018 - 11:38 AM

If you were Escobar and you thought you would get 3/35 as a free agent, would you accept 1/18?

 

Where's the breaking point?


#54 Vanimal46

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Posted 26 July 2018 - 11:50 AM

If you were Escobar and you thought you would get 3/35 as a free agent, would you accept 1/18?

Where's the breaking point?


I'd take $18 million for one year and believe in myself enough to get another good contract after the 2019 season.
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#55 Loosey

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Posted 26 July 2018 - 11:56 AM

I wish I lived in a world where someone would give me $18M and I could say them doing that is a dick move. 

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#56 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 26 July 2018 - 11:58 AM

 

If you were Escobar and you thought you would get 3/35 as a free agent, would you accept 1/18?

 

Where's the breaking point?

 

He would be wise to take the QO... or end up getting the Lynn treatment.

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#57 nicksaviking

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Posted 26 July 2018 - 12:00 PM

 

If you were Escobar and you thought you would get 3/35 as a free agent, would you accept 1/18?

 

Where's the breaking point?

 

I'm not sure, but after watching last year's free agent class, I'd think 3/35 is way higher than he'd get.

 

Mike Moustakas would be jealous. Eduardo Nunez got 2 years $8M. Neil Walker who OPS'd .801 in the final year of an 8 year stretch that could hardly be more consistent had to take a minor league deal. 

 

Plus, in free agency he's probably going to have to wait around all winter until whenever Manny Machado decides to sign because he and his agent would most likely plan on selling him as a similarly versatile back-up plan.

 

I think Escobar would accept the QO as soon as the words came out of the Twins mouth. Not that there's anything wrong with that.

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#58 Vanimal46

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Posted 26 July 2018 - 12:05 PM

I think Escobar would accept the QO as soon as the words came out of the Twins mouth. Not that there's anything wrong with that.


As he should if his representation is realistic with him. He won't be a highly sought-after FA even if Twins fans think he's awesome.

#59 Mike Sixel

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Posted 26 July 2018 - 12:06 PM

Who is going to sign Escobar if they have to give up a draft pick?

 

Why is he turning down as much in 1 year, as he'd make in 2-3 years?

 

Take the 18MM, then sign another contract after that. No brainer, imo.

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One of the best opening day rosters in years. Now go get 'em.


#60 nicksaviking

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Posted 26 July 2018 - 12:15 PM

 

Who is going to sign Escobar if they have to give up a draft pick?

 

Why is he turning down as much in 1 year, as he'd make in 2-3 years?

 

Take the 18MM, then sign another contract after that. No brainer, imo.

 

And all this makes it sound like a terrible idea for the Twins to do it. However, if the Twins think he'll get a multi year deal on the free agent market but they only want to give him one year, and if the Twins think that he's still a better option than what's available to them in free agency or within the organization, then there's no reason not to offer it in my opinion. The Twins can't spend all their available payroll budget next year even if they wanted to.

 

So I agree with Jaffe, not Klaw.

 

But I'd still look to trade him first and foremost.

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