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#361 nicksaviking

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Posted 19 December 2018 - 12:39 PM

 

 

That seems like an easy question. Quantity over quality seems to be a losing mentality to me, so go spend your money on one spot, not a half dozen that only make minimal improvements.

 

I think that article forgets to ask a major question though, would Harper, or any superstar free agent, come to Minnesota even if the Twins laid out the best offer? I have my doubts about that unless the player in question has local ties. I think the bigger spotlights, the bigger endorsement deals and more fame carry more weight than we think.

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#362 Thrylos

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Posted 19 December 2018 - 12:54 PM

 

 

 

would Harper, or any superstar free agent, come to Minnesota even if the Twins laid out the best offer?

 

Based on the 9.85% state income tax, the Twins offer has to be about 5% better than those of teams in states of ~5% income tax (includes the division rivals in OH,IL,KS,MI) and 10% better than teams in FL, AZ etc that do not have state tax to be equivalent.

 

So a Twins $11M offer in AAV is just equivalent (not better) to a Diamondbacks $10M offer or Indians $10.5M pretty much.

 

So if Harper has a $200M offer on the table from the Phillies (3.07% income tax in PA), they would need to offer $213.6M to just match it.

 

(rough math because 1/2 of someone's salary is used to pay tax in away games, but still...)

 

People don't think about it generally, but it is an issue.

Edited by Thrylos, 19 December 2018 - 12:55 PM.

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#363 Riverbrian

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Posted 19 December 2018 - 01:01 PM

To me the safety net you are talking about should include include guys on the 40 man roster. Granite, Wade, and Gordon have all gotten to AAA. If they aren't considered likely/possible replacements for injuries or poor performances, they shouldn't be on the 40 man. Actually any highly rated prospect who has reached AA should be in that category.

This is the whole point of building a strong farm system. You should have at least several ready or nearly ready prospects in system at all times to be the safety net. 4 A guys should just be short term replacements or backups to backups. Most major league backups are versatile guys or role player types. Even on good teams.

What you want and sometimes you don't really have enough of these guys, is for your near ready top level prospects, to be your depth in case of injury or non performance. It looks like, maybe, the Twins are getting close to that goal.


The CBA states that Gordon and Wade must be on the 40 man or you lose them. However sometimes that hard timeline doesn’t match up with an individuals particular development and you simply need more time with them before setting them adrift.

I agree that we are progressing nicely and the team looks closer to have legitimate options in Rochester for safety nets.

But a Rochester 40 man safety net could be a significant step down from a 25 man safety net.

There’s a difference between declaring Wade as your safety net and signing a Adam Jones type (for example no need to focus on Adam Jones) as a safety net.

I’d rather the team bring in a stronger safety net to be 4 OF deep on the 25 man and have Cave and Wade as a safety net to that safety net on the 40 man.

This sets up competition for playing time in Minnesota (May the best man win) and competition for call up to Minnesota in Rochester.

I understand that a 40 man roster is a hard cap with limitations that will prevent GM’s from creating a 10 deep depth chart and therefore bottom line - I consider each roster spot to be precious.

I want to avoid suffering through Byron Buxton playing everyday while hitting .140 because they don’t think the Ryan LaMarre type wasting roster space isnt good enough to replace a hitter hitting .140.

I believe what I’m talking about is the minimum requirement of any front office and if it’s May and Buxton is hitting .140 and Michael Reed is gathering dust in the bench. That’s the moment I start complaining about not learning lessons from past issues, simple contingency planning and eggs in one basket.

I will not tolerate any “we really expected more out of Buxton” excuse when they are asked what went wrong in 2019.

Now (the off season) is when they can prepare for as many unplanned issues as possible.

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#364 Thrylos

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Posted 19 December 2018 - 01:37 PM

 

The CBA states that Gordon and Wade must be on the 40 man or you lose them.

 

If someone selects them on the Rule 5 draft.

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#365 Riverbrian

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Posted 19 December 2018 - 01:44 PM

If someone selects them on the Rule 5 draft.


Which I assume is likely.

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I'm not a starting 9 guy!!!


#366 USAFChief

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Posted 19 December 2018 - 02:55 PM

Based on the 9.85% state income tax, the Twins offer has to be about 5% better than those of teams in states of ~5% income tax (includes the division rivals in OH,IL,KS,MI) and 10% better than teams in FL, AZ etc that do not have state tax to be equivalent.

So a Twins $11M offer in AAV is just equivalent (not better) to a Diamondbacks $10M offer or Indians $10.5M pretty much.

So if Harper has a $200M offer on the table from the Phillies (3.07% income tax in PA), they would need to offer $213.6M to just match it.

(rough math because 1/2 of someone's salary is used to pay tax in away games, but still...)

People don't think about it generally, but it is an issue.

nitpic: AZ has a state income tax.

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#367 Riverbrian

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Posted 19 December 2018 - 03:24 PM

nitpic: AZ has a state income tax.


Good thing you have no income.
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A Skeleton walks into a bar and says... "Give me a beer... And a mop".

 

President of the "Baseball Player Positional Flexibility" Club 

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I'm not a starting 9 guy!!!


#368 USAFChief

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Posted 19 December 2018 - 03:31 PM

Good thing you have no income.


Well I don’t have Harper’s tax bill, that’s for sure, but I sure wouldn’t complain if I did.
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#369 Riverbrian

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Posted 19 December 2018 - 04:13 PM

Well I don’t have Harper’s tax bill, that’s for sure, but I sure wouldn’t complain if I did.


C’mon now. Yes you would. You’d be a second nature complainer who couldn’t help it.

A Skeleton walks into a bar and says... "Give me a beer... And a mop".

 

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I'm not a starting 9 guy!!!


#370 Mike Sixel

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Posted 20 December 2018 - 01:33 PM

Ron: You think Kepler will put it together this year? If he does can he be a 4-5 win player? Buxton just needs to be healthy, right?
Keith Law: I thought he was going to put it together in 2018, so I guess yes, I still do. Buxton needs to get healthy. Sano needs to get in shape. There’s a lot of upside on that team, which is one reason I don’t agree with fans who think Cleveland has the division on lockdown.

 

http://meadowparty.c...wchat-12-20-18/

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It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. Oh, and I have at least one blog post now......The table on my first blog post is now fixed. Sigh.


#371 PseudoSABR

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Posted 20 December 2018 - 03:39 PM

 

Ron: You think Kepler will put it together this year? If he does can he be a 4-5 win player? Buxton just needs to be healthy, right?
Keith Law: I thought he was going to put it together in 2018, so I guess yes, I still do. Buxton needs to get healthy. Sano needs to get in shape. There’s a lot of upside on that team, which is one reason I don’t agree with fans who think Cleveland has the division on lockdown.

 

http://meadowparty.c...wchat-12-20-18/

Keith Law doesn't hate the Twins! Woo hoo!

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#372 Mike Sixel

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Posted 21 December 2018 - 03:15 PM

Flo: Twins still in on Cruz? If they sign him, does Tyler Austin get DFA’d?

10:32
Jeff Sullivan: Or Cron gets moved again

10:33
Jeff Sullivan: No reason for them to worry too much about either one

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It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. Oh, and I have at least one blog post now......The table on my first blog post is now fixed. Sigh.


#373 dbminn

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Posted 03 January 2019 - 08:20 AM

Jeff Sullivan at Fangraphs has written an ode to Willians Astudillo now that he's a nominee for LVBP (Venezuela Winter League) MVP.

 

He keeps hitting the ball harder without increasing Ks. 

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#374 jorgenswest

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Posted 03 January 2019 - 08:40 AM

I hope that Astudillo is getting real consideration for the starting catcher job.
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#375 jorgenswest

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Posted 03 January 2019 - 08:54 AM

MLB.com

These prospects drove the ball the best. Two Twin prospects make the list.

https://www.mlb.com/...018/c-302274922

Edited by jorgenswest, 03 January 2019 - 08:55 AM.

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#376 jkcarew

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Posted 03 January 2019 - 11:03 AM

 

MLB.com

These prospects drove the ball the best. Two Twin prospects make the list.

https://www.mlb.com/...018/c-302274922

Thanks. It probably shouldn't be a surprise to me that Rooker makes this type of list. By all reports, he hits the ball REALLY hard...but probably more pull that optimal, and at the expense of a lot of K's. Who does that sound like :).

 

FWIW, in Chattanooga at age 22, Sano's K-rate was just under 24% and his HR-rate was 5.2%. At age 23, Rooker was at 26.4% and 3.9%. My glass-half-full take is that Rooker is going to be much more diligent in making adjustments as he advances. Here's hoping he can end up being a bit of a late-bloomer.


#377 Mike Sixel

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Posted 03 January 2019 - 12:32 PM

Ron
1:09 HI Keith- The Cruz signing a decent deal?Get the bat if there is something left and maybe an influence on Sano etc?Money wasn't bad and maybe has a year left in the tank?Your thoughts? Thanks!
Keith Law
1:09 Yep, very good deal. Twins are quietly building a legitimate threat to Cleveland.

 

 

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It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. Oh, and I have at least one blog post now......The table on my first blog post is now fixed. Sigh.


#378 nicksaviking

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Posted 03 January 2019 - 12:44 PM

 

Thanks. It probably shouldn't be a surprise to me that Rooker makes this type of list. By all reports, he hits the ball REALLY hard...but probably more pull that optimal, and at the expense of a lot of K's. Who does that sound like :).

 

FWIW, in Chattanooga at age 22, Sano's K-rate was just under 24% and his HR-rate was 5.2%. At age 23, Rooker was at 26.4% and 3.9%. My glass-half-full take is that Rooker is going to be much more diligent in making adjustments as he advances. Here's hoping he can end up being a bit of a late-bloomer.

 

I'm a Rooker-lover but I think last year showed he was diligent on making adjustments

 

Brent Rooker's 2018 K% and BB% by month:

April: K% 29.6 BB% 2.2

May: K% 28.7 BB% 7.0

June: K% 28.0 BB% 11.2

July: K% 24.2 BB% 13.3

August: K% 22.8 BB% 13.1

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#379 Mike Sixel

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Posted 03 January 2019 - 03:58 PM

Mike sixel: Will Rooker cut his strikeouts enough to be a good MLB player someday? What position do you think he might play, if so? thanks.
Keith Law: 1B most likely, and yes. I think average regular
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It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. Oh, and I have at least one blog post now......The table on my first blog post is now fixed. Sigh.


#380 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 03 January 2019 - 04:46 PM

 

I'm a Rooker-lover but I think last year showed he was diligent on making adjustments

 

Brent Rooker's 2018 K% and BB% by month:

April: K% 29.6 BB% 2.2

May: K% 28.7 BB% 7.0

June: K% 28.0 BB% 11.2

July: K% 24.2 BB% 13.3

August: K% 22.8 BB% 13.1

 

I think his progression in 2017 was similar too... I'd just warn everyone here that his ML debut probably won't be pretty... 

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