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SOS and a Ray of Hope

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#1 tvagle

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Posted 11 July 2018 - 05:09 PM

A quick look at the remaining Strength of Schedules for the Twins and the Indians and maybe a bigger Ray of Hope for the rest of the year
 
Remaining Sched 071118

 

Games remaining for the Twins by division

AL Central 43

AL West 13

AL East 14

NL Central 2

 

Games remaining for the Indians by division

AL Central 35

AL West 6

AL East 24

NL Central 7

 

Those 8 extra games versus the AL Central could be the difference

 

Dark Cloud addendum: Combined winning % of teams remaining to play actually shows the Twins with a slightly tougher schedule (Twins Opponents .450 Indians .447)

Is it 2020 yet?


#2 Thrylos

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Posted 11 July 2018 - 05:34 PM

 

 

 

 

Those 8 extra games versus the AL Central could be the difference

 

Nope.Those 10 games against Cleveland could be the difference.Now the Twins are 8 games back.If they sweep them and both Twins and Cleveland have the same record against everyone else, the Twins will win the division.

But they got to sweep Cleveland.That's the hole they dug themselves in

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#3 Doomtints

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Posted 11 July 2018 - 05:37 PM

 

Nope.Those 10 games against Cleveland could be the difference.Now the Twins are 8 games back.If they sweep them and both Twins and Cleveland have the same record against everyone else, the Twins will win the division.

But they got to sweep Cleveland.That's the hole they dug themselves in

 

Plus this is all before the Twins trade talent away and Cleveland does the opposite.

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#4 Mike Sixel

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Posted 11 July 2018 - 05:46 PM

It's good for fans to have hope, if they want. Go for it.

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There's always next year, or the next, or maybe by the time I'm Chief's age, I guess....


#5 jkcarew

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Posted 11 July 2018 - 06:25 PM

I’d rather not have false hope get in the way of my desire to get a longer look at some of the prospects and any...any at all...return on the FA’s. But that’s just me. Unlikely to catch up, and no chance to be relevant in the playoffs even in the event Cleveland spits the bit.

I’m against hope. Someone has to play the villain in every thread. Or this doesn’t work.
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#6 ashburyjohn

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Posted 12 July 2018 - 08:20 AM

Someone has to play the villain in every thread.

I'll have to check with fellow moderators and see whether that's a universally held view. :)

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If jail and prison are synonymous, why aren't jailer and prisoner?


#7 TheLeviathan

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Posted 12 July 2018 - 08:38 AM

 

It's good for fans to have hope, if they want. Go for it.

 

Key word being: fans.Not the FO.

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#8 Mike Sixel

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Posted 12 July 2018 - 08:41 AM

 

Key word being: fans.Not the FO.

 

I thought I made that pretty clear.....I love it when fans are fans. 

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There's always next year, or the next, or maybe by the time I'm Chief's age, I guess....


#9 jkcarew

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Posted 12 July 2018 - 10:59 AM

I'll have to check with fellow moderators and see whether that's a universally held view. :)


Yeah...probably not. But tongue was firmly planted in cheek. I’m not really against hope. My post just makes it sound like I am.
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#10 ashburyjohn

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Posted 12 July 2018 - 12:34 PM

But tongue was firmly planted in cheek.

Likewise, just to be clear.

If jail and prison are synonymous, why aren't jailer and prisoner?


#11 alarp33

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Posted 12 July 2018 - 12:48 PM

 

 

 

 

Those 8 extra games versus the AL Central could be the difference

 

Dark Cloud addendum: Combined winning % of teams remaining to play actually shows the Twins with a slightly tougher schedule (Twins Opponents .450 Indians .447)

 

 

I'd wager heavily its far more likely the 8.5 game lead could be the difference

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#12 USAFChief

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Posted 12 July 2018 - 04:30 PM

 

I'll have to check with fellow moderators and see whether that's a universally held view. :)

I concur with the OP.:)

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#13 Jham

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Posted 12 July 2018 - 04:44 PM

I’d rather not have false hope get in the way of my desire to get a longer look at some of the prospects and any...any at all...return on the FA’s. But that’s just me. Unlikely to catch up, and no chance to be relevant in the playoffs even in the event Cleveland spits the bit.

I’m against hope. Someone has to play the villain in every thread. Or this doesn’t work.


If they got hot enough to actually catch Cleveland, we'd be hot enough to make a run. Still unlikely.

#14 mngopherguy

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Posted 12 July 2018 - 05:00 PM

 

 

A quick look at the remaining Strength of Schedules for the Twins and the Indians and maybe a bigger Ray of Hope for the rest of the year
 
 

 

Games remaining for the Twins by division

AL Central 43

AL West 13

AL East 14

NL Central 2

 

Games remaining for the Indians by division

AL Central 35

AL West 6

AL East 24

NL Central 7

 

Those 8 extra games versus the AL Central could be the difference

 

Dark Cloud addendum: Combined winning % of teams remaining to play actually shows the Twins with a slightly tougher schedule (Twins Opponents .450 Indians .447)

 

 

Thanks for sharing.

 

What also matters a lot is when you are playing these teams.And what has been added or subtracted by each team.  


#15 Nine of twelve

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Posted 14 July 2018 - 09:20 AM

Nobody said there would be no math so here are some numbers.

Based on current winning percentage Cleveland is on a pace to win 89 games. For the Twins to win 90 games we would have to achieve a 47-23 record the rest of the way. However, by doing well against Cleveland we could reduce their projected win total. So going about 45-25 would give us a good shot at winning the AL Central. Doing that is a tall order for a very good team and an even taller order for the Twins.

More numbers: If we do pass Cleveland and win the division we will have to win 2 postseason series to become AL Champions. The teams that will probably oppose the AL Central winner (with their projected win totals) are Boston (111), NYY (106), Houston (105) and Seattle (99). Doing that is a tall order for a very good team and an even taller order for the Twins. And of course there's the World Series itself after that.

So, ray of hope? Yes, but more like a very faint glimmer. The organization will be best served if the front office makes the 2019 season its top priority.

Edited by Nine of twelve, 14 July 2018 - 09:23 AM.

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#16 Brandon

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Posted 14 July 2018 - 01:24 PM

Key word being: fans. Not the FO.


The FO needs to be able to sell hope to the fans to get them to go out to the ballpark. So to sell this year we would need a return to be able to sell hope for next. If there is no return the only return would be slashing payroll which alienates the fanbase. But of course no one wants to pay to watch a garbage team either. ( note team is playing better and not currently garbage).

If we can get back to .500 and Sano gets close to getting called back up it may behoove us not to sell. Next 10 games are real important. We need to win 7 out of 10 minimum.