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Twins, Brewers Talking Trades

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#61 jun

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Posted Yesterday, 02:39 PM

 

I agree, the world has changed. teams aren't generally going to be willing top pay top dollar to guys 35 or older.I think Dozier gets 3 years on the FA market at best, probably 10-12M a year. For that, the Twins should try to re-sign him. 

 

I'm a little surprised Dozier and the Twins haven't talked about an extension. Part of the problem is that Dozier signed the team friendly contract in the old days, probably thinking he's hit free agency at age 31 and get a big contract. He may need to see what's out there before he can come to grips with reality. It also may be that the FO isn't thrilled with his play and thinks he's slowing down.Wouldn't surprise me at all if he took a QO if one was made as a nice pillow contract. 

Why do you sign someone who hardly delivers when it matters? Anyone can play 2B. If you want to see more solo homers, try home run derby.

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#62 bighat

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Posted Yesterday, 03:18 PM

Wow, here's Hildy...and Dick being critical of the move! What the heck is going on today?


#63 caninatl04

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Posted Yesterday, 05:11 PM

I wonder what today’s Grand Slam will cost some team in 2019 in Dozier’s contract.

#64 alarp33

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Posted Yesterday, 05:13 PM

 

The amount that MLB teams are willing to pay 2B is almost perfectly in line with what they pay outfielders. The top-15 highest paid 2B will actually out-earn the top-15 CFs and RFs. The percentage of 2B who will make at least $10M this year is the same as the percentage of OFs who will make at least $10M. Looking at the entire outfield, the average salary of the top 45 OFs compared to the top 15 2B differs by less that $100K. 

 

Avg Salaries; 

 

Right Field $4,606,626

 

Left Field $4,316,160

 

Center Field $3,730,521

 

2nd Base $2,512,682

 

Also your wrong about top 15 2b making more than top 15 RF + CF... top 15 2b make about $178, RF $180, CF $183

 

https://www.spotrac....mlb/positional/

 

"The game has changed since I've entered, it's for bright, energetic negotiators moreso than anything I possess." - Terry Ryan 2007


#65 caninatl04

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Posted Yesterday, 05:26 PM

Which of the 11, yes 11 NL teams still in contention need a 2B?

#66 mngopherguy

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Posted Yesterday, 05:53 PM

 

Why do you sign someone who hardly delivers when it matters? Anyone can play 2B. If you want to see more solo homers, try home run derby.

 

Grand Slam walk off homer.4th career walk off homer.  


#67 jun

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Posted Yesterday, 05:55 PM

 

Grand Slam walk off homer.4th career walk off homer.  

Yeah he's going to have to do that more often though.


#68 TheLeviathan

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Posted Yesterday, 05:58 PM

 

Which of the 11, yes 11 NL teams still in contention need a 2B?

 

Brewers, dodgers, D-backs, and Phillies could all probably be in the mix.Basically any team not the winner in the Machado sweepstakes.

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#69 dbminn

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Posted Yesterday, 06:12 PM

 

Brewers, dodgers, D-backs, and Phillies could all probably be in the mix.Basically any team not the winner in the Machado sweepstakes.

 

Remember all that Forsythe is basically Dozier talk?


#70 spycake

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Posted Yesterday, 07:15 PM

Remember all that Forsythe is basically Dozier talk?


To be fair, it wasn't that far off last year. Per B-Ref, Dodger 2B production in 2017 ranked 7th in MLB, behind the Twins but only by 1.1 wins.

The gulf has widened this year, 0.8 wins at the halfway point although Dozier has only been average so far. A big part of this is Seager's injury, otherwise the Dodgers may have already had the internal resources to cut Forsythe and match Dozier's production at 2B (i.e. Taylor and Hernandez).

#71 markos

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Posted Yesterday, 07:20 PM

 

Avg Salaries; 

 

Right Field $4,606,626

 

Left Field $4,316,160

 

Center Field $3,730,521

 

2nd Base $2,512,682

 

Also your wrong about top 15 2b making more than top 15 RF + CF... top 15 2b make about $178, RF $180, CF $183

 

https://www.spotrac....mlb/positional/

I used the same data source, but I didn't blindly use those averages because I couldn't find their methodology for position qualification. As you said, they state that the average salaries for the three outfield positions individually are:

Right Field $4,606,626

Left Field $4,316,160

Center Field $3,730,521

 

But then they have all OF, and the average is... 

Outfielder: $2,112,741

which makes zero mathematical sense unless they have a bunch of players that are getting outfield credit but not individual position credit OR the individual positions calculations are double-counting players that have appeared in multiple positions. I think it might be the latter, as they claim to have 388 OF qualifiers, even though Fangraphs only has 266 players that have played at least an inning in the outfield this season.

 

Our numbers don't match up for the second part because I took the liberty of removing two egregious qualifiers from the outfielders: Alex Gordon has played all of 11 games in CF this year, but he makes the CF list, and Gerardo Parra has started only 5 games in RF, but he makes the RF list. But with or without them, we are basically in agreement at the top salaries in 2B, CF and RF are within +/-3%. 


#72 alarp33

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Posted Yesterday, 07:27 PM

I used the same data source, but I didn't blindly use those averages because I couldn't find their methodology for position qualification. As you said, they state that the average salaries for the three outfield positions individually are:
Right Field $4,606,626
Left Field $4,316,160
Center Field $3,730,521

But then they have all OF, and the average is...
Outfielder: $2,112,741
which makes zero mathematical sense unless they have a bunch of players that are getting outfield credit but not individual position credit OR the individual positions calculations are double-counting players that have appeared in multiple positions. I think it might be the latter, as they claim to have 388 OF qualifiers, even though Fangraphs only has 266 players that have played at least an inning in the outfield this season.

Our numbers don't match up for the second part because I took the liberty of removing two egregious qualifiers from the outfielders: Alex Gordon has played all of 11 games in CF this year, but he makes the CF list, and Gerardo Parra has started only 5 games in RF, but he makes the RF list. But with or without them, we are basically in agreement at the top salaries in 2B, CF and RF are within +/-3%.


Did you move Ben Zobrists salary to OF? He’s played more OF than 2B this year.

The fact is there is little to no history of 2nd baseman signing big free agent deals. It’s Cano and that’s it

"The game has changed since I've entered, it's for bright, energetic negotiators moreso than anything I possess." - Terry Ryan 2007


#73 spycake

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Posted Yesterday, 07:41 PM

Did you move Ben Zobrists salary to OF? He’s played more OF than 2B this year.

The fact is there is little to no history of 2nd baseman signing big free agent deals. It’s Cano and that’s it


Zobrist was primarily a 2nd baseman when he signed. Murphy too, depending on how you define "big deals". And both of those guys had arguably as many, if not more, question marks as Dozier could have this offseason.

I think markos's conclusion is generally correct, that it's not likely Dozier will get a $50 mil deal at this point, but it's not impossible either. 1 in 4 chance sounds about right, and I'd factor that into our deadline decision-making accordingly.

#74 alarp33

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Posted Yesterday, 07:51 PM

Zobrist was primarily a 2nd baseman when he signed. Murphy too, depending on how you define "big deals". And both of those guys had arguably as many, if not more, question marks as Dozier could have this offseason.

I think markos's conclusion is generally correct, that it's not likely Dozier will get a $50 mil deal at this point, but it's not impossible either. 1 in 4 chance sounds about right, and I'd factor that into our deadline decision-making accordingly.


Even Murphy came well short of the $50 million mark though.

Zobrist had a down 2015, but had a pretty good postseason and the positional flexibility angle going for him. His career up to that point was better than Dozier’s too.

Free agency has noticeably shifted recently and I don’t see any way team gives Dozier 4 years which is likely his only chance to get to $50

"The game has changed since I've entered, it's for bright, energetic negotiators moreso than anything I possess." - Terry Ryan 2007


#75 spycake

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Posted Yesterday, 08:16 PM

Even Murphy came well short of the $50 million mark though.

Zobrist had a down 2015, but had a pretty good postseason and the positional flexibility angle going for him. His career up to that point was better than Dozier’s too.

Free agency has noticeably shifted recently and I don’t see any way team gives Dozier 4 years which is likely his only chance to get to $50


A 1 in 4 shot is only 25%. Seems like you might be splitting hairs here.

Murphy had very little track record, and was a major suspect defensively. (And his contract is up this year -- maybe the Nationals come calling for Dozier?)

Zobrist had a better career and more flexibility, but he was a lot older too.

And while the market hasn't boomed lately, I'm not sure it's down enough that Dozier couldn't get a $50 mil offer from someone with a strong finish in 2018. Just last winter, Jay Bruce got $39 mil and he sucks. Carlos Santana got $60 mil to go to the non-DH league. Cozart got $38 mil to play 3B/2B which he had never done before, and largely based on 1 season offensively. Chatwood got $38 mil. Even after Lynn's market fell apart, Alex Cobb still got $52 mil.

Again, maybe not likely that Dozier hits $50 mil, but 25% chance sounds reasonable at this point. Basically the chance of him having a great finish and a little market luck, or just a good finish and some more market luck.

Fortunately it doesn't matter today. If Dozier's bat is still hot in 2 weeks, though, I think it might be fair to hold out for a trade return comparable to the higher comp pick, especially if we still have an outside chance of keeping things interesting down the stretch -- and could possibly still utilize Dozier on a 1 year QO deal for 2019.

#76 dbminn

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Posted Yesterday, 09:09 PM

 

To be fair, it wasn't that far off last year. Per B-Ref, Dodger 2B production in 2017 ranked 7th in MLB, behind the Twins but only by 1.1 wins.

The gulf has widened this year, 0.8 wins at the halfway point although Dozier has only been average so far. A big part of this is Seager's injury, otherwise the Dodgers may have already had the internal resources to cut Forsythe and match Dozier's production at 2B (i.e. Taylor and Hernandez).

 

No, it wasn't close. Comparison, per Fangraphs (I hate curve fitting WAR to team record), Dozier 2014-2016: 13.8 WAR vs. Forsythe 6.6 WAR. Wasn't that close from 15-16 either. I had a strong opinion about it then and still do now. (key word, opinion)

Edited by dbminn, Yesterday, 09:31 PM.

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