Jump to content

Providing independent coverage of the Minnesota Twins.
Subscribe to Twins Daily Email
Photo

Twins, Brewers Talking Trades

  • Please log in to reply
105 replies to this topic

#21 TheLeviathan

TheLeviathan

    Twins News Team

  • Members
  • 14,988 posts

Posted 11 July 2018 - 03:31 PM

 

Brian Dozier would be a fool not to take a QO and try to build his value back up. And we would be fools to offer him one.

 

Both Escobar and Dozier would be in this group.I simply cannot understand how people think offering them a QO is a good idea.

  • Thrylos, Mike Sixel, PseudoSABR and 4 others like this

#22 Mike Sixel

Mike Sixel

    Now living in Oregon

  • Members
  • 26,749 posts

Posted 11 July 2018 - 03:35 PM

If people think 3/30 is fair for Esco....why would he turn down the QO? He'd only have to do 2/15 to make more money over the next three years.......

 

No way I QO either one.

  • TheLeviathan, wsnydes and jud6312 like this

There's always next year, or the next, or maybe by the time I'm Chief's age, I guess....


#23 Vanimal46

Vanimal46

    Opener Poster

  • Members
  • 10,331 posts
  • LocationAustin, TX

Posted 11 July 2018 - 03:37 PM

Both Escobar and Dozier would be in this group. I simply cannot understand how people think offering them a QO is a good idea.


Frankly, agents would be doing their clients a disservice if they recommend declining a QO. Especially after the s*** they went through last offseason.

Edited by Vanimal46, 11 July 2018 - 03:37 PM.

  • TheLeviathan and Doctor Wu like this

#24 ChrisKnutson

ChrisKnutson

    Junior Member

  • Members
  • 208 posts

Posted 11 July 2018 - 03:40 PM

Freddy Peralta or bust.
  • Sconnie likes this

#25 old nurse

old nurse

    Member

  • Members
  • 3,462 posts

Posted 11 July 2018 - 04:05 PM

 

Both Escobar and Dozier would be in this group.I simply cannot understand how people think offering them a QO is a good idea.

Well, this is a forum for both good and bad ideas. If you could split the QO and get the draft pick if a team signs both of them it would be a good idea.People must be confused with the old system. Neither are going to getthat big of contract. As such for extending a QO you are looking at getting a pick that is likely higher than 75. That is high risk high reward territory or high floorfill in player.The more likely scenario is that you are playing 2 players 5-10 million each more than you need to thus cutting out a player that could really help the team.I wouldn't think Escobar would turn down 17.5 million. Depending on how many more times the Twins face the Royals, Dozier has a long ways to go to get to an OPS that a 1/17.4 might be more than he would get on a 2 year contract. I think the math wizardsin the front office can figure that out. As trade baityou might get the equivalent of a mid 2 round pick

  • Mike Sixel, beckmt, TheLeviathan and 1 other like this

#26 TheLeviathan

TheLeviathan

    Twins News Team

  • Members
  • 14,988 posts

Posted 11 July 2018 - 04:21 PM

I do wonder if people have confused the old QO system with the current one.The current one of 17M (I've heard it might be 18M next year for some reason?I'll try and find a link) makes no sense for either of these guys.

 

If you want a one year, prove-it deal.....offer them both 8-10M for next year.Otherwise, offer them something more like what Cozart got - 3 years/38M (But probably not as much).Or move on.QO is the worst of all possible ideas.

  • Mike Sixel, beckmt and LA VIkes Fan like this

#27 Thrylos

Thrylos

    Twins World Champions in 2019

  • Members
  • 9,620 posts
  • LocationLehigh Valley, PA, USA
  • Twitter: thrylos98

Posted 11 July 2018 - 05:02 PM

I think that someone like Adrian Houser (who had some injury issues) would be a fair return for Dozier and sneaky good in the pen.Closer material.

  • jun and Tom Froemming like this
-----
Blogging Twins since 2007 at The Tenth Inning Stretch
http://tenthinningst...h.blogspot.com/
twitter: @thrylos98

#28 Brandon

Brandon

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 1,799 posts

Posted 11 July 2018 - 06:59 PM

Domingo Santiago and 500,000 international spending money or more and a suspect prospect for either Dozier or Escobar.but i am not sure i want to trade till a week or so after the allstar break.  

 

we seem to be improving with Cave, Garver, Polanco and Dozier a little and Mauer hits a little here and there too.I want to see how they do before we ship them off.especially since we could still see Sano, Buxton, and Rooker make an impact at some point this season as well.


#29 Tom Froemming

Tom Froemming

    Content Editor

  • Administrators
  • 1,553 posts

Posted 11 July 2018 - 07:24 PM

As simply a thrown in, not a major part of a deal at all, I'd be happy if they were able to land Christian Bethancourt. Remember him? Athletic catcher with a big arm, former top 100 prospect for the Braves.

 

He got traded to the Padres and they decided to give him a try as a reliever. Well he's back behind the plate, and is playing well with Milwaukee's Triple A team, (.300/.336/.502 with 12 HRs and a 44 CS%) though that's in Colorado Springs, meaning the power numbers may be deceiving. 

 

With his track record, you'd think the guy was 36, but I was shocked to see he's still only 26-years-old and he could be controlled through arbitration for three more years. Again, not a guy who you make as a centerpiece by any means, but a player who I think makes some sense as a target for the Twins.

  • Twins33, Oxtung, markos and 6 others like this

#30 Dantes929

Dantes929

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 2,120 posts

Posted 12 July 2018 - 08:06 AM

 

Unless Dozier heats up significantly, he'll be in no position to turn down a QO. So, no draft pick.

He has started to heat up a bit.His last two weeks have been great and his last month has been good but I admit I didn't realize how far his stock has fallen and did not account for the market drop when thinking about the qualifying offer. 

Don't Sweat the Small Stuff ... and it's all small stuff.

#31 Respy

Respy

    Ft Myers

  • Members
  • 389 posts
  • LocationNorth 'Burbs

Posted 12 July 2018 - 08:20 AM

 

Brian Dozier would be a fool not to take a QO and try to build his value back up. And we would be fools to offer him one.

 

Dozier is having a terrible year this year and yet is on pace for 2.7 WAR.At ~$10M/WAR, that's a value of $27M.If the 2018-2019 qualifying offer is about $18M-$20M, I think they absolutely extend a qualifying offer to him, especially given the value of the compensation pick they would receive if Dozier turns down the qualifying offer (which I think he might do if he heats up at all the rest of the season).I think this is especially important with the Twins possibly not having Escobar next year, questions around Sano, Polanco only playing 1/2 year this year, Nick Gordon struggling at AAA, and Royce Lewis still being at least a couple years away.Dozier is literally the only given on the middle/left side of the infield.

  • USAFChief, birdwatcher, big dog and 2 others like this

#32 Dman

Dman

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 1,234 posts

Posted 12 July 2018 - 08:43 AM

 

I think that someone like Adrian Houser (who had some injury issues) would be a fair return for Dozier and sneaky good in the pen.Closer material.

 

That might work.He has the curveball that this FO likes.His WHIP is pretty high though so he is hittable.I don't know how much different he is from the pen guys we already have in AAA.You could bet on his upside after surgery but I would would want another lottery ticket if they went with Houser.Maybe some international project far away with potential or rookie league player.A little something to mitigate the risk.If he had a third pitch that would help.


#33 ashburyjohn

ashburyjohn

    Haighters gonna Haight

  • Twins Mods
  • 19,385 posts
  • LocationNatick, MA

Posted 12 July 2018 - 08:57 AM

If he had a third pitch that would help.

Fastball, curveball, changeup. The latter isn't scouted as any kind of plus pitch, as yet. At age 25, not sure what the prognosis for it would be - pitchers constantly tinker throughout their careers. He's had success in limited usage in the majors this season. I suspect a batter has to be at least aware that a third pitch is in his arsenal.

If jail and prison are synonymous, why aren't jailer and prisoner?


#34 Dman

Dman

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 1,234 posts

Posted 12 July 2018 - 09:18 AM

 

Fastball, curveball, changeup. The latter isn't scouted as any kind of plus pitch, as yet. At age 25, not sure what the prognosis for it would be - pitchers constantly tinker throughout their careers. He's had success in limited usage in the majors this season. I suspect a batter has to be at least aware that a third pitch is in his arsenal.

 

Yeah that return seems a little light for Dozier IMO.If they wanted one of our relievers I would be OK with that move.Like you said he is 25 so if he isn't ready real soon he really isn't a prospect anymore.He has two strong pitches and has played with others but looks like two plus pitches is all we could reasonably expect to get out of him.We have Curtis, and Buesenitz with similar profiles and they haven't made it yet so not sure how badly we need another one.If that was the only deal we could get for Dozier I might take it, but I would like to think he could fetch an actual starting pitching prospect.Maybe one further away but with good potential.

  • ashburyjohn likes this

#35 nicksaviking

nicksaviking

    Billy G.O.A.T

  • Twins Mods
  • 12,476 posts

Posted 12 July 2018 - 09:19 AM

In regards to the QO for Dozier and Escobar, yeah, it wouldn't be a great look and people will criticize, but in the end, aren't they going to be criticized regardless if the payroll is $60M or $77M next year?

 

If the team wants one of them back and would rather overpay than fight off free agent suitors, who cares? It's going to be next to impossible for them to get back to 2018's payroll anyway.


#36 alarp33

alarp33

    Member

  • Members
  • 2,179 posts

Posted 12 July 2018 - 09:26 AM

 

Dozier is having a terrible year this year and yet is on pace for 2.7 WAR.At ~$10M/WAR, that's a value of $27M.If the 2018-2019 qualifying offer is about $18M-$20M, I think they absolutely extend a qualifying offer to him, especially given the value of the compensation pick they would receive if Dozier turns down the qualifying offer (which I think he might do if he heats up at all the rest of the season).I think this is especially important with the Twins possibly not having Escobar next year, questions around Sano, Polanco only playing 1/2 year this year, Nick Gordon struggling at AAA, and Royce Lewis still being at least a couple years away.Dozier is literally the only given on the middle/left side of the infield.

 

I know the $ amount / WAR is often thrown out there, but to be clear that's not how free agency works. No 3 WAR player signs for $30 million / year, so using that number is really irrelevant 

Edited by alarp33, 12 July 2018 - 09:26 AM.

  • Steve Lein, amjgt, TheLeviathan and 1 other like this

"The game has changed since I've entered, it's for bright, energetic negotiators moreso than anything I possess." - Terry Ryan 2007


#37 goulik

goulik

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 1,585 posts

Posted 12 July 2018 - 12:51 PM

I like waiting closer to the deadline unless someone is completely over paying for him. No reason to ship him now merely for a lottery ticket.

In the mean time, I would be negotiating as much as possible with him and Escobar on a two year contract. First one that blinks is staying, the other is traded. No one blinks, trade them both at deadline for lottery tickets (unless we make a miracle run between now and then)

We can always pursue them in the off season no matter where they are traded to.

#38 Respy

Respy

    Ft Myers

  • Members
  • 389 posts
  • LocationNorth 'Burbs

Posted 12 July 2018 - 04:22 PM

 

I know the $ amount / WAR is often thrown out there, but to be clear that's not how free agency works. No 3 WAR player signs for $30 million / year, so using that number is really irrelevant 

 

Of course it doesn't work that way.Teams want to profit, so if they expect a player to earn $30M dollar value, they'll want to pay $15-$20M.The $/WAR number is not irrelevant though, as that's a calculated number (albeit some variations year-to-year) to show how much it has cost salary-wise to get WAR out of a player. 

 

I think the point is more that if a player has 2.7 WAR on an awful year (classified as a 'solid starter' by FanGraphs), and has averaged 4.2 WAR/year (All-Star by FanGraphs), then they are worth a qualifying offer. Especially one of high character like Brian Dozier.

https://www.fangraph...brary/misc/war/

  • RaymondLuxuryYacht likes this

#39 alarp33

alarp33

    Member

  • Members
  • 2,179 posts

Posted 12 July 2018 - 04:47 PM

 

Of course it doesn't work that way.Teams want to profit, so if they expect a player to earn $30M dollar value, they'll want to pay $15-$20M.The $/WAR number is not irrelevant though, as that's a calculated number (albeit some variations year-to-year) to show how much it has cost salary-wise to get WAR out of a player. 

 

I think the point is more that if a player has 2.7 WAR on an awful year (classified as a 'solid starter' by FanGraphs), and has averaged 4.2 WAR/year (All-Star by FanGraphs), then they are worth a qualifying offer. Especially one of high character like Brian Dozier.

https://www.fangraph...brary/misc/war/

 

That's really not true at all either. Teams do not pay 2.7 WAR players $15-20 million / year in the open market. 

 

Take a look at the Twins most recent off-season. 

 

Logan Morrison (3.7 WAR 2017) - 1 year/ $8 million

Lance Lynn (3.2 WAR 2017) - 1 year / $12 million

Addison Reed (2.4 WAR 2017) - 2 years / $16 million

 

Will the Twins (if they don't trade him, which i expect they will) make Dozier a qualifying offer? Maybe if he heats up in 2nd half? They likely can pay Nick Gordon $550k to produce a win or two above replacement as a rookie and spend the $17-18 million elsewhere. 

 

His character also has no bearing, how he hits the ball does.  

 

Edited by alarp33, 12 July 2018 - 04:48 PM.

  • jun and rghrbek like this

"The game has changed since I've entered, it's for bright, energetic negotiators moreso than anything I possess." - Terry Ryan 2007


#40 mngopherguy

mngopherguy

    Cedar Rapids

  • Members
  • 173 posts

Posted 12 July 2018 - 04:54 PM

 

That's really not true at all either. Teams do not pay 2.7 WAR players $15-20 million / year in the open market. 

 

Take a look at the Twins most recent off-season. 

 

Logan Morrison (3.7 WAR 2017) - 1 year/ $8 million

Lance Lynn (3.2 WAR 2017) - 1 year / $12 million

Addison Reed (2.4 WAR 2017) - 2 years / $16 million

 

Will the Twins (if they don't trade him, which i expect they will) make Dozier a qualifying offer? Maybe if he heats up in 2nd half? They likely can pay Nick Gordon $550k to produce a win or two above replacement as a rookie and spend the $17-18 million elsewhere. 

 

His character also has no bearing, how he hits the ball does.  

 

I agree with everything till you say his character has no bearing.People don't like acknowledging things like character, because there's no fancy little number to put behind it.  

 

 

  • USAFChief, birdwatcher and RaymondLuxuryYacht like this