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Article: Potential Suitors for Brian Dozier

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#61 jkcarew

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Posted 11 July 2018 - 03:03 PM

 

YOu can have your own opinion on this.I simply presented the facts.This is potential leverage against the Twins in any negotiations because to a contender they want to push his value down.It is the art of the deal. 

 

On the underlined, I know full well that close and late numbers are usually slightly lower, but it isn't in this case.His numbers are SIGNIFICANLY lower than his output in other situations.Not just a little bit, a lotta bit. 

 

Am I somehow wrong in these points?

No.You are citing data that is real.Where we are disagreeing is in what the data means and how (or if) it would materially impact Dozier's trade value in a 2-3 month rental scenario.So, the things we are disagreeing on are subjective and a matter of opinion. 


#62 stringer bell

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Posted 11 July 2018 - 03:26 PM

Dozier has been the Twins' best player for the last four years. He hit over 40 homers in 2016 and has led the team in homers for the last four years. No other Twins has done that since Killebrew.

This year he hasn't been the team's best player, not even close. But he does have a history of having big second halves, and did so in both '16 and '17. He also had a poor second half in 2015, so maybe all we can expect is one torrid half out of two.

I believe potential suitors will look at more than this year's poor numbers and his close and late stats. Dozier has proven to be durable and productive and trading for him for August and September and perhaps October could and should make a lot of sense for a contender needing a second baseman. I would think that someone would see him as the piece that puts them over the top.

I do agree with Jorgen that most players close and late numbers in this era will be a far cry from their overall numbers. If you're facing the closer and setup guy, it's a lot tougher than hitting against the last guy or two in the 'pen.
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#63 jorgenswest

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Posted 11 July 2018 - 03:27 PM

I am not pretending to have a crystal ball.Nowhere have I predicted what he might do in the second half because that is pie in the sky nothing.In this situation, I stick to the facts. Teams possibly interested in Dozier will use whatever they can to get him for less.If these numbers are avaiilable to laypeople like us, don't you think office executives who do this for a living witl use myriad stats (these included) during the negotiation process?
 
Put all that aside, and just look at where he is now.This was supposed to be the year for him to play for a mulityear contract.If he gets injured or doesn't have a very strong second half he isn't going to get the deal he was hoping for before this season.NOt even close.


I would guess that every team has people knowledgeable about data and statistics to disregard the splits meaning for future performance. The negotiation isn’t going to come down to data in a split.

It is going to be the market that sets his return. If there are multiple teams truly interested the Twins will get a better return but I am not certain that there will be a high demand for second basemen. I think the market is the relevant conversation about possible Dozier deals.
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#64 Tuba

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Posted 11 July 2018 - 06:33 PM

Dozier is hitting .278 / .350 / .611 in July and is notorious for his second half finishes, he has decent value.

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#65 ewen21

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Posted 11 July 2018 - 10:32 PM

 

No.You are citing data that is real.Where we are disagreeing is in what the data means and how (or if) it would materially impact Dozier's trade value in a 2-3 month rental scenario.So, the things we are disagreeing on are subjective and a matter of opinion. 

Yes, this opinions are subjective, but you are dealing in absolutes when you assert the data as completely irrelevant in the negotiation process.Not sure how you can do that.You are essentially saying it will have no affect at all and I don't see how there is a 0% chance those numbers don't get looked at or considered.  

 

I surely want to get as much for Dozier as we can, but we didn't get many bites last year and that was when he was slightly more than a two month rental


#66 ewen21

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Posted 11 July 2018 - 10:37 PM

 

I would guess that every team has people knowledgeable about data and statistics to disregard the splits meaning for future performance. The negotiation isn’t going to come down to data in a split.

It is going to be the market that sets his return. If there are multiple teams truly interested the Twins will get a better return but I am not certain that there will be a high demand for second basemen. I think the market is the relevant conversation about possible Dozier deals.

 

I never said the negotiation hinged on those splits.It was only an example of ways Dozier's value can be further deflated.As I said in the last post, there wasn't a market for him last year.There isn't much of a market this year and he now only a two month rental.

 

I guess we can sell the "Dozier gets hot in the second half angle" but then that is only lip service.What team is going to part with anything much by pinning their hopes on that?


#67 ewen21

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Posted 11 July 2018 - 10:44 PM

 


I do agree with Jorgen that most players close and late numbers in this era will be a far cry from their overall numbers. If you're facing the closer and setup guy, it's a lot tougher than hitting against the last guy or two in the 'pen.

That was never in dispute.It is a statistical fact that players (by and large) have worse "close and late" numbers but in the case of Dozier it is rather significant.He is also a veteran with no postseason experience.That can be a factor working against as well.

 

I am only saying what the other side of the market is going to do.They will accentuate negatives as a means to counter the Twins.I am not going to say "other teams should want Dozier because..."

 


#68 old nurse

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Posted 12 July 2018 - 05:46 AM

 

That was never in dispute.It is a statistical fact that players (by and large) have worse "close and late" numbers but in the case of Dozier it is rather significant.He is also a veteran with no postseason experience.That can be a factor working against as well.

 

I am only saying what the other side of the market is going to do.They will accentuate negatives as a means to counter the Twins.I am not going to say "other teams should want Dozier because..."

Dozier has no postreason experience? That was such a forgetable game last year. What would the postseason statistics of Castro and Lowrie say about them versus the SSS of Dozier's wc game last year?Hint Casro and Starlins OPS are about .500 after each has played in 22 games.It makes a case that these two choked whereas Dozier shined.


#69 alarp33

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Posted 12 July 2018 - 06:36 AM

 

I am only saying what the other side of the market is going to do.They will accentuate negatives as a means to counter the Twins.I am not going to say "other teams should want Dozier because..."

 

You do not know that, which is why everyone is disagreeing with your posts. That is not how negotiations work."We will really need a 2nd baseman and RH bat, but I don't know, we have seen the numbers and in 2013 Brian Dozier in close and late situations was brutal"

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"The game has changed since I've entered, it's for bright, energetic negotiators moreso than anything I possess." - Terry Ryan 2007


#70 ewen21

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Posted 12 July 2018 - 07:20 AM

 

You do not know that, which is why everyone is disagreeing with your posts. That is not how negotiations work."We will really need a 2nd baseman and RH bat, but I don't know, we have seen the numbers and in 2013 Brian Dozier in close and late situations was brutal"

You seriously don't believe the buyer teams who express interest don't also express any concerns about the player they are interested in acquiring?You seriously don't think they try to drive the price down?

 

I only expressed only ONE WAY how they might do that.I didn't even bring up his "clutchness" or lack of it.I simply responded to a poster who dismissed it as nothing.I am saying it MIGHT NOT be nothing to the buyer teams.

 

The stuff you put in quotes is your own fabrication.Please don't try to pawn that junk off on me.

Thanks


#71 ewen21

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Posted 12 July 2018 - 07:25 AM

 

Dozier has no postreason experience? That was such a forgetable game last year. What would the postseason statistics of Castro and Lowrie say about them versus the SSS of Dozier's wc game last year?Hint Casro and Starlins OPS are about .500 after each has played in 22 games.It makes a case that these two choked whereas Dozier shined.

 

That one game "playoff" might be the post season to you.It isn't to me.That game was only a chance to make it to the post season.

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#72 ewen21

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Posted 12 July 2018 - 07:45 AM

Not meaning to be argumentative.WIth that, I will pull myself out of here for a few days

 

Take care :)


#73 old nurse

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Posted 12 July 2018 - 07:55 AM

 

That one game "playoff" might be the post season to you.It isn't to me.That game was only a chance to make it to the post season.

Call it what you will, the statistics sites list it as postseason. The game happens after the season ends. What is undeniable is that for the argument that Dozier does not have post season to be a valuable argument is that someone else available does have post season success.. That is not the case with the OP selections of 2b available players.Kinsler has done well,4 years ago when he was a better player than the last couple of years. With the number of 2b available the price may well be cheaper than a fill in reliever.The Reds, Marlins or Angels may well take a warm body.

Manny Machado has a post season OPS of .588. I do not think very many people would hold that against him. 

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#74 Mike Sixel

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Posted 12 July 2018 - 10:17 AM

Colorado is back in the hunt.....I really want Jon Gray. Wonder if Lynn, Dozier, and Rodney (and taking back part of a bad contract from CO) would get it done?

 

If not, I'd do Gibson and Dozier....

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I remain hopeful on Buxton and Sano.....but I'd not bet the franchise on them.


#75 TheLeviathan

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Posted 12 July 2018 - 10:35 AM

 

Colorado is back in the hunt.....I really want Jon Gray. Wonder if Lynn, Dozier, and Rodney (and taking back part of a bad contract from CO) would get it done?

 

If not, I'd do Gibson and Dozier....

 

Why would they want Dozier?I doubt they move LeMahieu or supplant him.

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#76 alarp33

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Posted 12 July 2018 - 10:37 AM

 

Colorado is back in the hunt.....I really want Jon Gray. Wonder if Lynn, Dozier, and Rodney (and taking back part of a bad contract from CO) would get it done?

 

If not, I'd do Gibson and Dozier....

 

I know he's in AAA currently but the Rockies aren't trading Gray for expiring contracts. If they do trade him it will be for prospects, and probably pretty good ones

"The game has changed since I've entered, it's for bright, energetic negotiators moreso than anything I possess." - Terry Ryan 2007


#77 Mike Sixel

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Posted 12 July 2018 - 10:39 AM

 

I know he's in AAA currently but the Rockies aren't trading Gray for expiring contracts. If they do trade him it will be for prospects, and probably pretty good ones

 

A guy can dream......

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I remain hopeful on Buxton and Sano.....but I'd not bet the franchise on them.


#78 TheLeviathan

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Posted 12 July 2018 - 10:39 AM

 

A guy can dream......

 

Rodney and a good prospect maybe?

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#79 Mike Sixel

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Posted 12 July 2018 - 10:40 AM

 

Rodney and a good prospect maybe?

 

Gibson, Rodney, ok prospect? that might get it done.....or, you know, take back one of their terrible contracts......and reduce the MN cost....

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I remain hopeful on Buxton and Sano.....but I'd not bet the franchise on them.


#80 TheLeviathan

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Posted 12 July 2018 - 10:42 AM

 

Gibson, Rodney, ok prospect? that might get it done.....or, you know, take back one of their terrible contracts......and reduce the MN cost....

 

I would deal Gibson and Rodney for Gray in a heartbeat.I could see Colorado being open to it to, but it depends how frustrated they are behind the scenes with him.It's worth a call for sure.

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