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Article: Potential Suitors for Brian Dozier

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#41 Cap'n Piranha

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Posted 11 July 2018 - 08:34 AM

I want Dozier traded because I’m petrified the Twins would QO him, and he’d accept.

Even if he doesn’t, I’m guessing no team will be willing to sign him and lose their pick, so this is the one chance to get something (anything) for him.
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#42 Aerodeliria

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Posted 11 July 2018 - 10:09 AM

I'm just afraid the Twins will be too eager and end up getting shanked. Dozier has played much more poorly than would be hoped at this point. The offer would have to be a big win IMHO. It is not inconceivable that Dozier could start his surge any day, so that would need to be the primary selling point. Just walk away from any conversation that starts out with batting average, strikeouts, etc., etc.

#43 laloesch

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Posted 11 July 2018 - 10:38 AM

No-one should be surprised by this. Brian's average always spikes in August - September but what's the point if the team is completely out of it by then. He has ALWAYS been slow to the party with the exception of 2017 and part of 2016. Through out his major league career beginning in 2012 he has displayed this pattern of low .200's hitting late into the summer before going on a tear and pulling his ba and op percentage up to a halfway respectable average. And quite frankly i'm tired of it. I'm tired of all his chirping and then backing it up with awful stats. Time to move on. If they trade him for something halfway decent fine by me. 


#44 Mike Sixel

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Posted 11 July 2018 - 10:50 AM

 

I'm just afraid the Twins will be too eager and end up getting shanked. Dozier has played much more poorly than would be hoped at this point. The offer would have to be a big win IMHO. It is not inconceivable that Dozier could start his surge any day, so that would need to be the primary selling point. Just walk away from any conversation that starts out with batting average, strikeouts, etc., etc.

 

how so? I mean, I'd rather get fifty cents than nothing.....

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There's always next year, or the next, or maybe by the time I'm Chief's age, I guess....


#45 jkcarew

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Posted 11 July 2018 - 10:52 AM

I love Dozier as a player, but even I don't want to watch him play for 2 more months just because his replacement will probably make the team weaker.When you pull the plug on a season, you pull the plug.So, if he's not going to be here in 2019, at the very least you can assess 'how far away' Gordon is, etc...or further assess whether you want Adrianza in 2019...or what Escobar looks like at 2nd...anything that has any relevance at all for 2019 plans.I think the return will be limited under current circumstances, but I see that as almost irrelevant.You're not going to give him a QO.

 

Under these circumstances, I'm almost more interested in seeing where he goes, than what we get.The work and improvement he made to transform himself into what he's become warrants a real opportunity in the playoffs...and hopefully a decent payday in the off season.

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#46 jkcarew

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Posted 11 July 2018 - 10:59 AM

For those that love to talk about Dozier's RISP struggles.This is a number that varies widely from year to year for most all batters.Dozier's BA RiSP is down this year.For his career his BA RiSP is almost identical to his overall career BA (as it is for most players).

 

His 2018 BA RiSP will have absolutely nothing to do with his perceived value among potential trade partners.

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#47 Andrew Thares

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Posted 11 July 2018 - 11:20 AM

It appears as though the Brewers are interested in both Brian Dozier and Eduardo Escobar...

 

https://www.mlb.com/...8?tid=282421090


#48 ewen21

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Posted 11 July 2018 - 11:20 AM

 

No-one should be surprised by this. Brian's average always spikes in August - September but what's the point if the team is completely out of it by then. He has ALWAYS been slow to the party with the exception of 2017 and part of 2016. Through out his major league career beginning in 2012 he has displayed this pattern of low .200's hitting late into the summer before going on a tear and pulling his ba and op percentage up to a halfway respectable average. And quite frankly i'm tired of it. I'm tired of all his chirping and then backing it up with awful stats. Time to move on. If they trade him for something halfway decent fine by me. 

He has been on awful teams he seems to always heat up as soon as the season is lost

 

I am tired of his act as well.He ticked me off with his comments about CIsco bunting on us early in the season and did it again after Escobar was hit by Porcello.What the heck is this all about?Is this supposed to be "breaking chops" which allegedly equates to "keeping the clubhouse loose" i.e "leadership"?Not funny (especially in front of the camera) when the incident was still fresh.


#49 ewen21

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Posted 11 July 2018 - 11:34 AM

 

For those that love to talk about Dozier's RISP struggles.This is a number that varies widely from year to year for most all batters.Dozier's BA RiSP is down this year.For his career his BA RiSP is almost identical to his overall career BA (as it is for most players).

 

His 2018 BA RiSP will have absolutely nothing to do with his perceived value among potential trade partners.

Dozier has been consistently horrible in close and late situations:

https://www.baseball...ziebr01|bat|AB|

On the other hand, when the run margin in greater than 4 runs he is much MUCH better:

https://www.baseball...ziebr01|bat|AB|

 

There is enough statistical evidence to destroy any dismissiveness about how he performs in these situations.And if anyone thinks playoff teams are unaware of these statistics or are going to ignore them in trade negotiations they need to think again.

 

This is more about the Twins than it is Dozier.He could have done better this year to command more value and demand and he choked in that area.Not the Twins fault.

 

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#50 jkcarew

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Posted 11 July 2018 - 11:58 AM

 

Dozier has been consistently horrible in close and late situations:

https://www.baseball...ziebr01|bat|AB|

On the other hand, when the run margin in greater than 4 runs he is much MUCH better:

https://www.baseball...ziebr01|bat|AB|

 

There is enough statistical evidence to destroy any dismissiveness about how he performs in these situations.And if anyone thinks playoff teams are unaware of these statistics or are going to ignore them in trade negotiations they need to think again.

 

This is more about the Twins than it is Dozier.He could have done better this year to command more value and demand and he choked in that area.Not the Twins fault.

Again, how he fared in 2018 in these scenarios will have no bearing on his trade value.

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#51 Monkeypaws

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Posted 11 July 2018 - 12:35 PM

Just saw that Pedroia will not be back anytime soon.

 

Dozier + the Green Monster could be fun.


#52 ewen21

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Posted 11 July 2018 - 01:33 PM

 

Again, how he fared in 2018 in these scenarios will have no bearing on his trade value.

This is the kind of thing, quite frankly, that does this forum no good.You didn't even look at the links I have provided.The links I posted highlighted his CAREER NUMBERS so what you said above isn't even what I was talking about.I don't mind when people disagree with me, but I do have trouble with what you just did.I will try again and this time please give me some feedback on what these numbers say to you:

CAREER NUMBERS, close and late:

https://www.baseball...ziebr01|bat|AB|

CAREER NUMBERS, Margin > 4 R

https://www.baseball...ziebr01|bat|AB|

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#53 jkcarew

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Posted 11 July 2018 - 01:53 PM

 

This is the kind of thing, quite frankly, that does this forum no good.You didn't even look at the links I have provided.The links I posted highlighted his CAREER NUMBERS so what you said above isn't even what I was talking about.I don't mind when people disagree with me, but I do have trouble with what you just did.I will try again and this time please give me some feedback on what these numbers say to you:

CAREER NUMBERS, close and late:

https://www.baseball...ziebr01|bat|AB|

CAREER NUMBERS, Margin > 4 R

https://www.baseball...ziebr01|bat|AB|

Let me try to elaborate.I looked at you link.You can see the numbers vary wildly from year to year.I do not at all believe that Dozier has a reputation as a "choker" among decision-makers in the industry, REGARDLESS of the numbers you cite."Close and Late" numbers are compiled against the best relievers in the game (to a significant degree) and numbers moderately below overall numbers are not uncommon at all....it's not abnormal.If you disagree, and think Dozier's value is materially tainted by performance in 'clutch' situations, that's your prerogative.I very much doubt that is the case.

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#54 alarp33

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Posted 11 July 2018 - 02:03 PM

 

This is the kind of thing, quite frankly, that does this forum no good.You didn't even look at the links I have provided.The links I posted highlighted his CAREER NUMBERS so what you said above isn't even what I was talking about.I don't mind when people disagree with me, but I do have trouble with what you just did.I will try again and this time please give me some feedback on what these numbers say to you:

CAREER NUMBERS, close and late:

https://www.baseball...ziebr01|bat|AB|

CAREER NUMBERS, Margin > 4 R

https://www.baseball...ziebr01|bat|AB|

 

500 at bats over a 7 year span is not a meaningful sample size in any way. It will not have any affect on his trade value. His performance overall this season might

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"The game has changed since I've entered, it's for bright, energetic negotiators moreso than anything I possess." - Terry Ryan 2007


#55 ewen21

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Posted 11 July 2018 - 02:14 PM

 

500 at bats over a 7 year span is not a meaningful sample size in any way. It will not have any affect on his trade value. His performance overall this season might

It isn't important that you agree with me or not.I simply presented the facts and these facts will more than likely be brought into the equation during any kinds of deadline deals.  


#56 jorgenswest

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Posted 11 July 2018 - 02:16 PM

This is the kind of thing, quite frankly, that does this forum no good.You didn't even look at the links I have provided.The links I posted highlighted his CAREER NUMBERS so what you said above isn't even what I was talking about.I don't mind when people disagree with me, but I do have trouble with what you just did.I will try again and this time please give me some feedback on what these numbers say to you:
CAREER NUMBERS, close and late:
https://www.baseball...ziebr01|bat|AB|
CAREER NUMBERS, Margin > 4 R
https://www.baseball...ziebr01|bat|AB|


Is that enough to support a career conclusion about Dozier into the future? A few considerations might be important.

The Late and Close split is going to have the lower numbers league wide. It shouldn’t be surprising as batters are often facing closers or very good relievers. You might still argue that Dozier’s drop is greater than the league average drop.

The other consideration is sample. Batting average takes over 900 plate appearances to stabilize. The other slash stats a full season. It takes years to get enough sample and by the time that sample is large enough the player must get be very different than when they entered the league.

Given both considerations I doubt that this data is a significant factor in any teams thinking as they seek players to improve their team at the trade deadline.
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#57 ewen21

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Posted 11 July 2018 - 02:18 PM

 

Let me try to elaborate.I looked at you link.You can see the numbers vary wildly from year to year.I do not at all believe that Dozier has a reputation as a "choker" among decision-makers in the industry, REGARDLESS of the numbers you cite."Close and Late" numbers are compiled against the best relievers in the game (to a significant degree) and numbers moderately below overall numbers are not uncommon at all....it's not abnormal.If you disagree, and think Dozier's value is materially tainted by performance in 'clutch' situations, that's your prerogative.I very much doubt that is the case.

 

I did not use the word "choker".I simply presented the facts.My main point is that Dozier's performance in these situations can not be called an anomaly and in trade negotiations they will look for any way to undercut his value.These statistics are out there and they are not going to be ignored.  You can draw your own conclusions.

 

 


#58 ewen21

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Posted 11 July 2018 - 02:27 PM

 

Is that enough to support a career conclusion about Dozier into the future? A few considerations might be important.

The Late and Close split is going to have the lower numbers league wide. It shouldn’t be surprising as batters are often facing closers or very good relievers. You might still argue that Dozier’s drop is greater than the league average drop.

The other consideration is sample. Batting average takes over 900 plate appearances to stabilize. The other slash stats a full season. It takes years to get enough sample and by the time that sample is large enough the player must get be very different than when they entered the league.

Given both considerations I doubt that this data is a significant factor in any teams thinking as they seek players to improve their team at the trade deadline.

 

YOu can have your own opinion on this.I simply presented the facts.This is potential leverage against the Twins in any negotiations because to a contender they want to push his value down.It is the art of the deal. 

 

On the underlined, I know full well that close and late numbers are usually slightly lower, but it isn't in this case.His numbers are SIGNIFICANLY lower than his output in other situations.Not just a little bit, a lotta bit. 

 

Am I somehow wrong in these points?

Edited by ewen21, 11 July 2018 - 02:28 PM.


#59 jorgenswest

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Posted 11 July 2018 - 02:38 PM

YOu can have your own opinion on this.I simply presented the facts.This is potential leverage against the Twins in any negotiations because to a contender they want to push his value down.It is the art of the deal. 
 
On the underlined, I know full well that close and late numbers are usually slightly lower, but it isn't in this case.His numbers are SIGNIFICANLY lower than his output in other situations.Not just a little bit, a lotta bit. 
 
Am I somehow wrong in these points?


You correctly represent the past though I disagree with the word slight. The facts likely have little meaning for Dozier’s performance the rest of the season.
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#60 ewen21

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Posted 11 July 2018 - 02:56 PM

 

You correctly represent the past though I disagree with the word slight. The facts likely have little meaning for Dozier’s performance the rest of the season.

I am not pretending to have a crystal ball.Nowhere have I predicted what he might do in the second half because that is pie in the sky nothing.In this situation, I stick to the facts. Teams possibly interested in Dozier will use whatever they can to get him for less.If these numbers are avaiilable to laypeople like us, don't you think office executives who do this for a living witl use myriad stats (these included) during the negotiation process?

 

Put all that aside, and just look at where he is now.This was supposed to be the year for him to play for a mulityear contract.If he gets injured or doesn't have a very strong second half he isn't going to get the deal he was hoping for before this season.NOt even close.




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