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Twins' Beat Writers Laying the Groundwork for a Smaller Payroll

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#1 Vanimal46

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Posted 10 July 2018 - 11:11 AM

Souhan and Reusse, who recently renewed their Pohlad Wallet Watcher credentials, wrote separate articles that spending money on free agents is bad.

Souhan focusing on the slow ramp up of free agents this last winter such as Cobb, Lynn, and Morrison. And throwing money at a problem is bad.

Reusse focused on the last two times the Twins had a record payroll, they failed. So why spend money?

http://m.startribune...oney/487577121/

http://m.startribune...talk/487617461/
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#2 Monkeypaws

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Posted 10 July 2018 - 11:18 AM

 

Souhan and Reusse, who recently renewed their Pohlad Wallet Watcher credentials, wrote separate articles that spending money on free agents is bad.

Souhan focusing on the slow ramp up of free agents this last winter such as Cobb, Lynn, and Morrison. And throwing money at a problem is bad.

Reusse focused on the last two times the Twins had a record payroll, they failed. So why spend money?

http://m.startribune...oney/487577121/

http://m.startribune...talk/487617461/

 

Thanks for the summaries - saved me the trouble of reading the articles.

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#3 Mike Sixel

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Posted 10 July 2018 - 11:41 AM

Did they look at the 1991 team?

 

And, super. But, hey, selling that draft pick for money they won't spend was an awesome move!

 

Let's hope it isn't going this way. If it is, they really need to trade off the assets they have, and reboot.

 

edit to add:

This is, imo, the issue with acquiring "meh" players, and not elite players.....

Edited by Mike Sixel, 10 July 2018 - 11:42 AM.

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I remain hopeful on Buxton and Sano.....but I'd not bet the franchise on them.


#4 Vanimal46

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Posted 10 July 2018 - 11:50 AM

Did they look at the 1991 team?

And, super. But, hey, selling that draft pick for money they won't spend was an awesome move!

Let's hope it isn't going this way. If it is, they really need to trade off the assets they have, and reboot.

edit to add:
This is, imo, the issue with acquiring "meh" players, and not elite players.....


I don't believe it's coincidence that two tenured beat writers wrote about this subject within days of each other....
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#5 jorgenswest

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Posted 10 July 2018 - 12:28 PM

They need to better than 3 good seasons out of 14 for the ~150 million they spent on Hughes, Santana and Nolasco.

#6 Mike Sixel

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Posted 10 July 2018 - 12:32 PM

Had they not spent money on those pitchers....would they have won more games with cheaper alternatives from their minor league system? If not, then really, the argument is that it is better for the business not to sign FAs, than the fans....

I remain hopeful on Buxton and Sano.....but I'd not bet the franchise on them.


#7 TheLeviathan

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Posted 10 July 2018 - 12:43 PM

I don't think either author is wrong that spending in FA is fraught with peril.More often than not it's not a good use of resources.

 

It's also necessary.

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#8 Riverbrian

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Posted 10 July 2018 - 12:56 PM

I think the future of free agent paydays as we know it is in trouble.

 

The numbers don't lie... It's hard to justify a 12 Million Dollar deal for a player that barely out performs (or doesn't out perform) a 600K guy and this happens frequently... Way too frequently. 

 

I also don't believe that the size of a teams payroll indicates the size of on the field success so I don't think $130 Million is guaranteed better than $100 million. 

 

With that said... Free Agency is a door that has to always remain open because a General Manager needs to keep every available door open when it comes to staffing a roster for competition. GM's need every available avenue. 

 

In the future... The price for a Logan Morrison type is going to go down but the need for a Logan Morrison type is going to remain unchanged. While many are not working as planned... SOME DO and as long as some do... you must keep the door open to fill in those gaps. 

 

What GM's need to stop doing (especially the Twins)... is assuming that the free agent you just signed has just fixed your problem before he has fixed your problem. GM's need to bake the salary into the payroll as the cost of doing business and have a plan B in case Logan Morrison becomes our Logan Morrison. 

 

Yes... I'm gonna pick on Logan Morrison as an example:

 

I was OK with the team signing Logan Morrison. Signing him shows a good faith effort by the front office to improve the team. Even if he struggles as badly as he has... I'm ok with it. 

 

I'm not OK with playing Logan Morrison on a regular basis all the way into July when he is playing as poorly as he has.

 

4 wrongs do not make a right.:

 

Wrong 1 - Spending 6 Million on a player that would easily be out performed by AAAA guy for 600K is a wrong. But a survivable wrong. It's only Money and if you simply bake the salary into the recipe, the results won't kill you. 

 

Wrong 2 - Playing that failing 6 million dollar player everyday compromises your chances to win. It does the exact opposite of your intention by signing him. Now you've essentially paid 6 million dollars for the privilege of making it hard to win. Everybody will make a wrong turn on occasion with the intention of going the right direction. Wrong turns are only major issues if you keep going the wrong direction. You've now taken one wrong and made it two wrongs and this makes the situation much much worse. 

 

Wrong 3 - Playing that failing 6 million dollar player everyday also blocks the opportunity for a Jake Cave at 600K to avail himself to the club as an option that wasn't considered previously. Now you've spent 6 Million for the privilege of making it harder to win with a player not producing. AND... And... you are now making it harder to identify a cheaper option that may become a club asset by not providing the necessary playing time because you are wasting his opportunity by playing the guy you made a mistake signing in the first place. By not identifying a cheaper asset, you force yourself to repeat wrong #1 in the future because you never gave that cheaper asset a chance to be considered in the future.

 

That becomes wrong #4... You didn't identify a cheaper option for the future... so now you have to go back to free agency to find the Logan Morrison replacement with a Logan Morrison type and possibly repeat Wrong #1 again. Now you are in a death spiral that you can't get out of. 

 

Not making wrong #2 will give you a chance to minimize wrong #1 and could provide you a chance to avoid repeating wrong #1 over and over again until we all die. 

 

I do not blame them for the signing of Logan Morrison... I blame them for letting him continue. 

 

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#9 KirbyDome89

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Posted 10 July 2018 - 01:04 PM

 

I don't think either author is wrong that spending in FA is fraught with peril.More often than not it's not a good use of resources.

 

It's also necessary.

I think it's that last part that is all too often ignored. 


#10 TheLeviathan

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Posted 10 July 2018 - 01:29 PM

 

I think it's that last part that is all too often ignored. 

 

Right, a lot of people look at it as inefficient spending but the truth is that there are only so many ways to spend your revenues.Even if it's inefficient, you sorta have to do it.

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#11 DocBauer

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Posted 10 July 2018 - 01:42 PM

It should always be done to augment your roster, or fill a hole. It should never be used to BUILD your roster. History shows that doesn't work.

I believe history has also met logic and agree most of the big and long term FA deals are a thing of the past.
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#12 Mike Sixel

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Posted 10 July 2018 - 02:30 PM

 

Right, a lot of people look at it as inefficient spending but the truth is that there are only so many ways to spend your revenues.Even if it's inefficient, you sorta have to do it.

 

Started talking about this with Jeff Sullivan and some Athletic writers last night, but we got interrupted before I could finish my point.

 

It's most likely inefficient, sure....but who is the alternative to Morrison when the season started in AAA? Really? Or three RPs. Or Lance Lynn and Odorizzi (not sure how FA is worse than trades).

 

NO TEAM is built 100% from the farm. 

 

Imagine the TWins last year without ESAN.....and instead, Slegers.....or, um, who?

Edited by Mike Sixel, 10 July 2018 - 02:42 PM.

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I remain hopeful on Buxton and Sano.....but I'd not bet the franchise on them.


#13 LA VIkes Fan

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Posted 10 July 2018 - 02:31 PM

 

It should always be done to augment your roster, or fill a hole. It should never be used to BUILD your roster. History shows that doesn't work.

I believe history has also met logic and agree most of the big and long term FA deals are a thing of the past.

I completely agree.The old days were driven by a few clubs who overspent and got burned (see Angels, Albert Pujols, several Yankees, Red Sox and Dodgers) and the idea that if Pujols was worth 25m, then a lesser player was worth 15.I think those teams have gotten smarter and those days are over. 

 

Sadly, the Twin who's probably going to feel the change the most is Brian Dozier. Good guy, gave his all for the team and signed a contract that set him up for free agency at age 31. In the old days he'd get 4-5 years 12-15 m a year. Now, he's Mike Moustakas hoping for 3 years at 8-10m and probably having to sign a one year 5m deal with an average or worse team unless he really heats up in the second half. 

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#14 mikelink45

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Posted 10 July 2018 - 02:38 PM

I feel like we are expected to immediately attack Souhan and Reusse, but I can't.I agree.I was against the pursuits we made this year and in favor of pushing the envelop on prospects.I still am.When we have a base team that projects to 90+ wins you can sign the difference maker.When you are a flat 500 team (at best) you are better off investing in what you have and going from there.If you have nothing in the minors you have to grab what is available.  

 

Anyone can say that sometimes the FA will fail, but my counter is that these are the days of the hyper statistical geniuses who only need to look at the advanced stats.  

 

We know that no team can only build from its farm system but Houston did a good job and when they raised the bar they went for difference makers like Verlander and Cole.  

Something is wrong in the Minnesota system and I am not sure what it is.When both FA and Top prospects fail where do we turn?

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#15 ewen21

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Posted 10 July 2018 - 02:39 PM

 

Started talking about this with Jeff Sullivan and some Athletic writers last night, but we got interrupted before I could finish my point.

 

It's most likely inefficient, sure....but who is the alternative to Morrison when the season started in AAA? Really? Or three RPs. Or Lance Lynn and Odorizzi (not sure how FA is worse than trades).

 

NO TEAM is built 100% from the farm. 

 

Imagine the TWins last year with ESAN.....and instead, Slegers.....or, um, who?

ESPECIALLY not us right now.


#16 Thrylos

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Posted 10 July 2018 - 02:40 PM

 

I don't believe it's coincidence that two tenured beat writers wrote about this subject within days of each other....

 

Neither is a beat writer.They are columnists.

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#17 Mike Sixel

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Posted 10 July 2018 - 02:41 PM

 

Neither is a beat writer.They are columnists.

 

not sure how that matters at all......does it matter at all in your mind?

I remain hopeful on Buxton and Sano.....but I'd not bet the franchise on them.


#18 nicksaviking

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Posted 10 July 2018 - 02:55 PM

I don't completely disagree with the theory, but perhaps just once they could try the quality over quantity approach. Yeah, they got a lot of free agents, but every time a new one was reported, the word "bargain" was in the headline.

 

If the Twins aren't or shouldn't spend money on free agents, then they should do something completely game changing. Piss off the whole league by over paying for the best managers and coaches, the best GM, the best scouts, the best analytical minds and the best developmental personnel. Upgrading those positions would cost peanuts compared to the typical free agent spends.

 

Walk into Fenway flashing the $60M they aren't going to spend on players and say, "Who's coming with me?"

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#19 yarnivek1972

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Posted 10 July 2018 - 03:22 PM

I think the future of free agent paydays as we know it is in trouble.

The numbers don't lie... It's hard to justify a 12 Million Dollar deal for a player that barely out performs (or doesn't out perform) a 600K guy and this happens frequently... Way too frequently.

I also don't believe that the size of a teams payroll indicates the size of on the field success so I don't think $130 Million is guaranteed better than $100 million.

With that said... Free Agency is a door that has to always remain open because a General Manager needs to keep every available door open when it comes to staffing a roster for competition. GM's need every available avenue.

In the future... The price for a Logan Morrison type is going to go down but the need for a Logan Morrison type is going to remain unchanged. While many are not working as planned... SOME DO and as long as some do... you must keep the door open to fill in those gaps.

What GM's need to stop doing (especially the Twins)... is assuming that the free agent you just signed has just fixed your problem before he has fixed your problem. GM's need to bake the salary into the payroll as the cost of doing business and have a plan B in case Logan Morrison becomes our Logan Morrison.

Yes... I'm gonna pick on Logan Morrison as an example:

I was OK with the team signing Logan Morrison. Signing him shows a good faith effort by the front office to improve the team. Even if he struggles as badly as he has... I'm ok with it.

I'm not OK with playing Logan Morrison on a regular basis all the way into July when he is playing as poorly as he has.

4 wrongs do not make a right.:

Wrong 1 - Spending 6 Million on a player that would easily be out performed by AAAA guy for 600K is a wrong. But a survivable wrong. It's only Money and if you simply bake the salary into the recipe, the results won't kill you.

Wrong 2 - Playing that failing 6 million dollar player everyday compromises your chances to win. It does the exact opposite of your intention by signing him. Now you've essentially paid 6 million dollars for the privilege of making it hard to win. Everybody will make a wrong turn on occasion with the intention of going the right direction. Wrong turns are only major issues if you keep going the wrong direction. You've now taken one wrong and made it two wrongs and this makes the situation much much worse.

Wrong 3 - Playing that failing 6 million dollar player everyday also blocks the opportunity for a Jake Cave at 600K to avail himself to the club as an option that wasn't considered previously. Now you've spent 6 Million for the privilege of making it harder to win with a player not producing. AND... And... you are now making it harder to identify a cheaper option that may become a club asset by not providing the necessary playing time because you are wasting his opportunity by playing the guy you made a mistake signing in the first place. By not identifying a cheaper asset, you force yourself to repeat wrong #1 in the future because you never gave that cheaper asset a chance to be considered in the future.

That becomes wrong #4... You didn't identify a cheaper option for the future... so now you have to go back to free agency to find the Logan Morrison replacement with a Logan Morrison type and possibly repeat Wrong #1 again. Now you are in a death spiral that you can't get out of.

Not making wrong #2 will give you a chance to minimize wrong #1 and could provide you a chance to avoid repeating wrong #1 over and over again until we all die.

I do not blame them for the signing of Logan Morrison... I blame them for letting him continue.


Basically, the Twins need to do a better job evaluating the players they have. Something this FO has been frustratingly reluctant to do.
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#20 jkcarew

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Posted 10 July 2018 - 03:45 PM

 

I don't believe it's coincidence that two tenured beat writers wrote about this subject within days of each other....

Are you saying that Reusse chooses to be pawn on behalf of the Pohlads/FO?....or, simply that something was deliberately leaked to him that he, in this case, happens to agree with.I'd buy the latter, but I'm not buying Reusse as pawn to any owners or front offices in this town.He's not Sid, and especially not at this stage of his career.(I'm not taking his side in the argument at hand.)

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