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#41 Platoon

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Posted 10 July 2018 - 04:58 PM

One could just as well take a flyer on Vargas, as the apparent flyer we took on Morrison. While Vargas may not be better, it's truly hard to be worse. And yes, move some dead end contracts for something. And give the experience to some potential controllable players. Something for nothing is better than nothing for nothing.
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#42 curt1965

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Posted 10 July 2018 - 05:44 PM

I am one of the biggest fans you will ever find. Been following them since I was 5 and I'm 52 now. Used to follow the prospects and milb via the Star Tribune, Baseball Digest, Sporting News, Baseball America and a short lived fan rag in the late 80's whose name I can't recall any longer. I LIVE ME SOME TWINS BASEBALL!
But even I, ever a contender for most optimistic fan, will admit to you that without a small miracle, the Twins are done from a contention standpoint for this season.
Just being a realist.
But whether you are rooting for, or against, Molitor, there is so much to watch for the second half! When will Buxton and Sano turn the corner and build for 2019, or still help this year? The Eddie & Eddie show is awesome. Berrios is awesome. Romero has flashed awesome and will be back! Slegers, solid and with enough ability to find a role, and the even more talented Gonsalves and Mejia are going to get auditions. Maybe I'm full of it because he's probably only going to end up being a nice 4th OF complimentary piece, but I'm loving watching some of the stuff Captain Caveman is doing.
What's really important, at this point, is how this team develops and comes together the second half. Sometimes, in the world of sports, finishing as a strong #2 can be very important.


The real joy of watching games now, is that if they lose, blow a big lead, whatever,is that I can sleep much easier when this happens, since my belief is that these games add experience for when a real pennant race happens! Agree 100% Doc!

#43 Foghorn Leghorn

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Posted 10 July 2018 - 05:54 PM

Bullpen is too bad to make any serious run. That being said, if they get within 5 i will become quite optimistic we can come back.

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#44 Nine of twelve

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Posted 10 July 2018 - 06:00 PM

 

You think we have a better chance of winning a 5 game series against a superior team rather than winning a single game against a superior team?

We would be in the ALDS, whereas being in the wild card game is at best a 50% chance of being in the ALDS.


#45 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 10 July 2018 - 06:47 PM

 

I'd rather get mediocre returns, and see the young pitchers up here. It's also about their opportunity. What do the Twins get, next year, out of watching Lynn pitch this year? Nothing. Which you sort of addressed....so, every pitcher not named Berrios or Slegers, on the current roster, is available (maybe not Gibson, maybe Gibson). Including all the RPs.

 

That leaves Esco and Dozier as the only two not currently blocking someone (maybe Grossman or Morrison, if you want Wade up). Gordon isn't ready.

I don't move Odorizzi. I don't move Gibson. Both have been decent enough (or in Gibson's case, legitimately good) to keep for next year.

 

I think Lynn probably falls under the last paragraph of my post (meaning he's blocking someone you want to see in August and September).

 

I don't think anyone in the bullpen is good enough to bring back anything worth thinking about. Sure, you field offers, but if the return is pointless, just keep Duke/Rodney.

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#46 Loosey

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Posted 11 July 2018 - 09:02 AM

One move I would make, is Santana.If he can be back up in a week he should be able to make 2 starts before the deadline.If he looks good I'd move him, even if it is at the waiver deadline in August.It isn't like he has been a cog in the rotation this year and isn't a future piece.  

 

You won't get much but they can essentially get something for a player they haven't used all year.But he is a veteran that is relatively steady when healthy.Another team chasing a the playoffs could give up a mid-level prospect and in return get Santana to be a good #4/#5 starter down the stretch.Basically, it would be a something for nothing type of trade and isn't hurting the team.


#47 ThejacKmp

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Posted 11 July 2018 - 09:32 AM

 

Pennant race? The Twins won't get to play the O's and Royals the rest of the season. The 06' comparisons have been beaten to death but it was over a month ago that matching the pace necessary to make the postseason was nearing 06' territory. Rightfully, most were skeptical. That was with 3/4 of the season left to play. We're at the halfway point now and since then the Twins have only damaged what little chance they had. They play 162 games; the fact that their chance of reaching the postseason is > 0% isn't particularly meaningful. They don't control their own destiny either. Sure, they have a handful of games remaining against Cleveland, but they also need the Indians to collapse, as much as they need to maintain a torrid win pace. If you want to hold out hope that they'll make a historical second half run, then more power to you, but for all realistic purposes this team isn't contending. 

 

I don't want next year's Lance Lynn. I have 0 interest in a pitcher with iffy peripherals, coming off a serious injury. There's a reason MN signed him for 1 year, and no other teams expressed real interest, and Lynn has shown us exactly what that reason was. I'd bet that money ultimately decides where Escobar ends up, not a few more meaningless second half Ws. 

 

Yes, it'd be borderline negligent for the Twins to pick up Morrison's option. He's been flat out awful apart from a few decent weeks in May. You don't slash .192/.289/.357 because you're "unlucky." The team won't have to look far to find an improvement over that. Grossman just doesn't serve a purpose on this team anymore. He only tenable attribute, getting on base, is no longer a strength. You're right, they have a handful of guys who should be replacing him. 

 

1.) Incorrect. The Twins control their own destiny. If they win out, they will win the division (and like the #1 seed. And be the loose basis for a major Hollywood motion picture). You can argue that in baseball controlling your own destiny is meaningless because of the number of games but they absolutely control their own destiny. I'd also argue that they control their own destiny in a real sense of the word because if they win every game against Cleveland, they should be in good shape. Did you watch that Cleveland pen last night? That’s not a team pulling away.

2.) Logan Morrison’s BABIP is 54 points lower than his career average. His K rate is lower than last year, he’s hitting LD at the same rate, his Ground Out/Air Out is more skewed towards Air Outs than ever before, and his walk rate is the same as his career average. He’s popping up in the IF more than he did in the past but other than that, it’s hard to see any real differences in his peripherals. I think you can very concretely say that bad luck has played a key role in his struggles. He’s popped the ball up a bit more but his BABIP being down 35% is likely a bigger causative effect. Those numbers should even out. He’s not 2017 Logan Morrison but he’s not this guy either.

 

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#48 KirbyDome89

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Posted 11 July 2018 - 01:21 PM

 

1.) Incorrect. The Twins control their own destiny. If they win out, they will win the division (and like the #1 seed. And be the loose basis for a major Hollywood motion picture). You can argue that in baseball controlling your own destiny is meaningless because of the number of games but they absolutely control their own destiny. I'd also argue that they control their own destiny in a real sense of the word because if they win every game against Cleveland, they should be in good shape. Did you watch that Cleveland pen last night? That’s not a team pulling away.

2.) Logan Morrison’s BABIP is 54 points lower than his career average. His K rate is lower than last year, he’s hitting LD at the same rate, his Ground Out/Air Out is more skewed towards Air Outs than ever before, and his walk rate is the same as his career average. He’s popping up in the IF more than he did in the past but other than that, it’s hard to see any real differences in his peripherals. I think you can very concretely say that bad luck has played a key role in his struggles. He’s popped the ball up a bit more but his BABIP being down 35% is likely a bigger causative effect. Those numbers should even out. He’s not 2017 Logan Morrison but he’s not this guy either.

I'd love the movie but I'm not remotely confident in it coming to fruition. Even if the Twins manage to win every remaining game against Cleveland, which is a monumental task in itself, they need the Indians to completely reverse the course they set during the first half of the season. That's far from controlling their season. The Twins didn't exactly look great last night either. Apart from a few Ws against a historically bad team last weekend they've ranged from terrible to not good over the last 2-3 weeks. That isn't a team that's going to "win out."

 

His K% is about the same as it was the last 2 years. It shouldn't be a surprise that he's making more outs in the air after shifting his focus to hitting more HRs. I'm not sure Morrison is a guy you want hitting GBs anyway. We're also ignoring the fact that he's about to turn 31. At some point those career numbers that are buoyed by his performance in his mid to late 20s becomes the peak and not the norm. "Bad luck," seems to be a placeholder until optimism can no longer be justified.

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#49 ThejacKmp

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Posted 11 July 2018 - 02:48 PM

 

I'd love the movie but I'm not remotely confident in it coming to fruition. Even if the Twins manage to win every remaining game against Cleveland, which is a monumental task in itself, they need the Indians to completely reverse the course they set during the first half of the season. That's far from controlling their season. The Twins didn't exactly look great last night either. Apart from a few Ws against a historically bad team last weekend they've ranged from terrible to not good over the last 2-3 weeks. That isn't a team that's going to "win out."

 

See, weirdly, I’d be worried if they had been playing well. This team has more talent than it’s show so far which means they have the potential for another gear. Consider:

  • Dozier goes nuclear like he does for two months sometimes. We’ve seen signs of this the past week.
  • Mauer gets hot and is on base, taking professional at-bats
  • Polanco isn’t even 2nd half Polanco, he just isn’t Adrianza
  • Morrison and Kepler get a little better luck and start hitting some balls out (Morrison is getting hotter)
  • They get an injection of talent from a revitalized Buxton or Sano (too much to ask for both but one seems okay)
  • The starting pitching stays the same and they get a bit of an infusion from Romero/Gonsalves/Santana down the stretch

Does it seem crazy to think that they could go on a run? On paper they’re better than this and have been hurt by injuries/back luck. Cleveland is vulnerable with that pen, a top-heavy lineup, and the number of head-to-head games.


#50 ThejacKmp

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Posted 11 July 2018 - 02:58 PM

 

His K% is about the same as it was the last 2 years. It shouldn't be a surprise that he's making more outs in the air after shifting his focus to hitting more HRs. I'm not sure Morrison is a guy you want hitting GBs anyway. We're also ignoring the fact that he's about to turn 31. At some point those career numbers that are buoyed by his performance in his mid to late 20s becomes the peak and not the norm. "Bad luck," seems to be a placeholder until optimism can no longer be justified.

 

Splitting this in two.

 

I’m not sure your point – we’re both saying that his underlying numbers haven’t changed. What seems to have happened is he’s popping the ball up more than driving it to the OF and his BABIP is crazy low (54 points is a lot). The first part may be approach (but also may be a sample size thing or a pressing thing) but the second part is the definition of luck. He’s put about the same number of balls into play and suffered way worse than expected results.

 

I agree that his age is a potential concern but he’s only 30. Also, generally you see other numbers change when a guy starts to lose it. His LD rate drops, he strikes out more, he’s swinging at pitches out of the zone he never used to. That hasn’t happened to Morrison (with the exception of infield pop-ups which to me are pressing more than anything with age though I of course could be wrong). I’d be on him returning to form (not 2017 LM but 2014-2016 LM). That wouldn’t be big for a Twins team with Sano healthy and Escobar 3B/DHing but it is for a team giving Jake Cave and Grossman regular DH ABs.


#51 mngopherguy

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Posted 11 July 2018 - 03:06 PM

 

1.) Incorrect. The Twins control their own destiny. If they win out, they will win the division (and like the #1 seed. And be the loose basis for a major Hollywood motion picture). You can argue that in baseball controlling your own destiny is meaningless because of the number of games but they absolutely control their own destiny. I'd also argue that they control their own destiny in a real sense of the word because if they win every game against Cleveland, they should be in good shape. Did you watch that Cleveland pen last night? That’s not a team pulling away.

2.) Logan Morrison’s BABIP is 54 points lower than his career average. His K rate is lower than last year, he’s hitting LD at the same rate, his Ground Out/Air Out is more skewed towards Air Outs than ever before, and his walk rate is the same as his career average. He’s popping up in the IF more than he did in the past but other than that, it’s hard to see any real differences in his peripherals. I think you can very concretely say that bad luck has played a key role in his struggles. He’s popped the ball up a bit more but his BABIP being down 35% is likely a bigger causative effect. Those numbers should even out. He’s not 2017 Logan Morrison but he’s not this guy either.

 

I completely agree on Morrison which is why I'd at least consider another 1 year low value deal if he doesn't hit 600 PA's.And considering how I expect payroll to go down next year, I don't see the team getting a top notch DH.


#52 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 11 July 2018 - 03:15 PM

I completely agree on Morrison which is why I'd at least consider another 1 year low value deal if he doesn't hit 600 PA's. And considering how I expect payroll to go down next year, I don't see the team getting a top notch DH.


600 PA's is where the option automatically vests. The team can pick up the option regardless, if they want to.

#53 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 11 July 2018 - 03:16 PM

Splitting this in two.

I’m not sure your point – we’re both saying that his underlying numbers haven’t changed. What seems to have happened is he’s popping the ball up more than driving it to the OF and his BABIP is crazy low (54 points is a lot). The first part may be approach (but also may be a sample size thing or a pressing thing) but the second part is the definition of luck. He’s put about the same number of balls into play and suffered way worse than expected results.

I agree that his age is a potential concern but he’s only 30. Also, generally you see other numbers change when a guy starts to lose it. His LD rate drops, he strikes out more, he’s swinging at pitches out of the zone he never used to. That hasn’t happened to Morrison (with the exception of infield pop-ups which to me are pressing more than anything with age though I of course could be wrong). I’d be on him returning to form (not 2017 LM but 2014-2016 LM). That wouldn’t be big for a Twins team with Sano healthy and Escobar 3B/DHing but it is for a team giving Jake Cave and Grossman regular DH ABs.


I'm not sure we know to what extent these extreme shifts can have on babip.
Some of it is probably luck, but some of the drop is going to be due to increased pop up and fly ball rates, and some is going to be from hitting it into the shift.

#54 tvagle

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Posted 11 July 2018 - 03:50 PM

Magic Number Afternoon Edition

 

Division: 81

Wild Card: 87

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Is it 2020 yet?


#55 Doomtints

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Posted 11 July 2018 - 05:30 PM

 

One could just as well take a flyer on Vargas, as the apparent flyer we took on Morrison. While Vargas may not be better, it's truly hard to be worse.

 

Vargas is better than Morrison.


#56 SwainZag

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Posted 11 July 2018 - 05:38 PM

 

Vargas is better than Morrison.

 

I'd like to hear you try and explain/prove this one.


#57 Doomtints

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Posted 11 July 2018 - 05:39 PM

 

I'd like to hear you try and explain/prove this one.

 

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/


#58 Danchat

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Posted 11 July 2018 - 06:09 PM

 

I'd like to hear you try and explain/prove this one.

If the comparison is 2017 Vargas against 2018 Morrison, then it's easily Vargas. However, with the way Vargas has played at AAA in 2018, it's difficult to say. I think Vargas would be a little better batting average wise but he'd be taking less walks and more strikeouts than Logan.


#59 KirbyDome89

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Posted 11 July 2018 - 06:17 PM

 

See, weirdly, I’d be worried if they had been playing well. This team has more talent than it’s show so far which means they have the potential for another gear. Consider:

  • Dozier goes nuclear like he does for two months sometimes. We’ve seen signs of this the past week.
  • Mauer gets hot and is on base, taking professional at-bats
  • Polanco isn’t even 2nd half Polanco, he just isn’t Adrianza
  • Morrison and Kepler get a little better luck and start hitting some balls out (Morrison is getting hotter)
  • They get an injection of talent from a revitalized Buxton or Sano (too much to ask for both but one seems okay)
  • The starting pitching stays the same and they get a bit of an infusion from Romero/Gonsalves/Santana down the stretch

Does it seem crazy to think that they could go on a run? On paper they’re better than this and have been hurt by injuries/back luck. Cleveland is vulnerable with that pen, a top-heavy lineup, and the number of head-to-head games.

Yeah, it's asking a lot for 5+ players to all start playing well above where they have for the bulk of the season, and all at roughly the same time. Just look at that list....

 

Cleveland isn't a juggernaut by any means but you have to put some serious blinders on to start poking holes in that team while ignoring just how flawed the Twins roster is. Paper is irrelevant; they've played 89 games to this point and so far we can safely say this isn't a good team. 


#60 SwainZag

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Posted 11 July 2018 - 08:14 PM

 

 

:rolleyes: