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Article: Real Deal: What Would It Take To Get J.T. Realmuto?

alex kirilloff
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#161 mngopherguy

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Posted 10 July 2018 - 09:43 PM

 

Mejia, May, and/or Busenitz would be an insult to the Marlins. We are never going to be able to make a trade with second or third tier players included. Like Doc said, the trade is going to hurt if it’s going to work. The position the Twins are in right now, IMHO no one is off limits!

 

I agree that this proposed trade is not enough.That said, the Twins would be foolish to offer up Lewis or Romero.They have all kinds of cash next season, sign a FA catcher and keep the prospects.


#162 mngopherguy

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Posted 10 July 2018 - 10:04 PM

 

I don’t know how screwed up a team has to be before we should accept they are not in a window but how anyone can conclude we are just a player away from contending with NY, Boston, Houston, and Cleveland. We have one proven SP that will be here after next year, the bullpen is a mess and the guys who were supposed to be our superstars are in the minors. Yes, lets trade away or top prospects for a catcher that will be here for 2 years and hope all of what ails this team will be fixed by opening day next year. Who cares if trading away those top prospects could result in continued futility for several years. Let’s go all-in on next year.

 

We have control of the core players through 2021-2022. This team can also afford to keep Berrios and one of Buxton or Sano if we have cheap talent like Kirriloff, Lewis, Graterol, etc coming on board as the price of some of our core playersgoes up. Managing our assets to be all-in on a 2 year window is a very bad idea. I would prefer a plan that at least has a chance of sustained success. Luckily, Falvey and Levine have been very consistent in their message that sustainability is a primary objective so I trust we won't see them pushing all their chips in, especially when we have a bad hand. You can't bluff when there are several great teams that are set-up for long-term success.

 

I completely agree with this 100%.An the Cubs and other teams have owners willing to spend.


#163 mlhouse

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Posted 11 July 2018 - 09:05 AM

While I do not advocate this trade, the unfortunate thing is that the Twins have been so poorly managed throughout these past years that we have absolute black holes at certain positions.And catcher is one of them, this despite having $24.5 million invested in the position with Jason Casto's contract.  

 

Mitch Garver is the "brightest" Twins catching prospect, but he is a 27 year old rookie that doesn't seem to have management's confidence to do anything beyond being a backup utility catcher.After Garver, you have to go to A+ league to find a catcher that is even a minor prospect in Ben Rortvedt, a 2016 2nd round draft pick.But Rortvedt has a minor league career .630 OPS versus Garver's .793.I get that the Twins FO apparently prefers catchers who cannot hit at all but Rortvedt's minor league stats do not prdict a catcher that can hit major league pitching.

 

So, the best approach to this matter is the rebuilding approach.Don't trade your prospects to fill a "hole".Bring up Romero, Gordon, Rooker, Wade, Bard, Curtiss, Gonslaves, and maybe a couple of guys deeper in the minors like Arreaz. Let this team lose games, gain experience, and develop at teh major league level. 

 

Then, in another couple of years, the team might develop into a competitive team and you can fill int he holes from there.Think the 1991 Twins filling in the catcher position with Brian Harper. 

 

Unfortunately, the fluke 2017 season has led this team down the wrong path, and even before that no one has been willing to tear this team down to its foundation to properly rebuilding, preferring the patchwork approach that has led us to this point today.As I have said, many times in this forum, the longer we delay taking the rebuilding medicine, the longer it will take before we have a competitive team.  

 


#164 LA VIkes Fan

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Posted 11 July 2018 - 09:26 AM

 

Considering the years would likely be low at those yearly figures, absolutely. The Twins have what, $30 million in commitments for next year?

 

BTW I would hammer the under on Grandal getting up to $20 million / year

Grandal is staying in LA. I live in LA and the papers say he likes it here and the Dodgers want him back, especially with Austin Barnes, the heir apparent, hitting .213/.331/.265 (.596).They have a good catcher in AAA but the Dodgers don't have to roll with an untried guy at catcher next year. They'll cut a deal with Grandal. Similarly, Wilson Ramos is likely to be traded to Washington at the deadline and has also said he likes it there and would like to stay there. Another team that can and will outspend the Twins ot keep a guy they want. Much as I'd love to have the choice of Grandal or Wilson next year with the only criterion being money, it just doesn't look very likely.

 

That's what makes Realmuto attractive to me - we get him and we can keep him for at least two years. Having said that,. the scuttlebutt is that he Marlins intend to approach him after this year and try to get him on a long term contract, at least if you believe their SB Nation site.

 

Bottom line, we need to find a catcher either by developing Garver or trading for someone else's AAA or AA project and developing them.  


#165 Major Leauge Ready

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Posted 11 July 2018 - 03:45 PM

 

Have you looked at the FA list for 1B and SP? Good luck with that.

 

https://www.mlbtrade...ree-agents.html

 

You have a point if the assumption is that we have to spend all of the available payroll immediately. The nature of strategic planning is long-term and specifically where assets are concerned the assessment should match the life of the assets. I assumed the dollars would get spent over the next couple of years unless the FO is willing and successful in pursuing Machado. We have many unanswered questions which include a number of pitching prospects that really should be auditioned next year. It would not be wise to commit all of the available dollars yet.

 

There are a number of 3B prospects and it might make sense to move Sano to 1B. I would prefer a 245lbs version of Sano shows up for spring training and his approach / pitch recognition improves significantly but the depth of FA 3B might make that option a good one. If Sano flops, we have other options at 1B. It also would not be horrible to bring Mauer back on a 1 year deal if he is willing. We could also spend on the BP. We all know spending on the BP in free agency is risky but one legit late inning guy would be a nice add.

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#166 Mike Sixel

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Posted 11 July 2018 - 03:59 PM

 

You have a point if the assumption is that we have to spend all of the available payroll immediately. The nature of strategic planning is long-term and specifically where assets are concerned the assessment should match the life of the assets. I assumed the dollars would get spent over the next couple of years unless the FO is willing and successful in pursuing Machado. We have many unanswered questions which include a number of pitching prospects that really should be auditioned next year. It would not be wise to commit all of the available dollars yet.

 

There are a number of 3B prospects and it might make sense to move Sano to 1B. I would prefer a 245lbs version of Sano shows up for spring training and his approach / pitch recognition improves significantly but the depth of FA 3B might make that option a good one. If Sano flops, we have other options at 1B. It also would not be horrible to bring Mauer back on a 1 year deal if he is willing. We could also spend on the BP. We all know spending on the BP in free agency is risky but one legit late inning guy would be a nice add.

 

Mauer is 28th among 1B in offense this year....how does bringing him back make them winners? he's not good anymore.

 

And, I thought we were discussing next year's team. Sure, if they can find someone that will help a lot past next year, sign those types....but that won't help next year at all.

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I remain hopeful on Buxton and Sano.....but I'd not bet the franchise on them.


#167 old nurse

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Posted 11 July 2018 - 04:25 PM

 

Off the top of my head, I believe the Cubs signed Jon Lester to a $150 deal in December of 2014, coming off a 71-91 season. I bet I can find more examples if I spend 5 minutes looking them up.

 

Perhaps they felt they already had the pieces needed to compete, and were simply adding to it.

 

Sort of like the Twins, with Sano, Buxton, Berrios, Kepler, Rosario, Polanco, etc.The exact guys they've been building this "window" around for half a decade.

 

I just have never agreed with the philosophy of waiting until you're really good, before you try to get really really good.

 

IMO, that's how you spend decades waiting to get really good. Tha's not how the Yankees and Red Sox got where they are. They assess their needs, and then fill them, by whatever means necessary. Or at least try.

What do the Twins have that resembles Rizzo, Russel, Casro, Soler at that time, Hendricks and Arrietta with prospect as good as Bryant and Schwarber?

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#168 Major Leauge Ready

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Posted 11 July 2018 - 05:53 PM

 

Mauer is 28th among 1B in offense this year....how does bringing him back make them winners? he's not good anymore.

 

And, I thought we were discussing next year's team. Sure, if they can find someone that will help a lot past next year, sign those types....but that won't help next year at all.

 

I understand your focus and many others is next year. My focus is building a sustainable winner. The two are generally not the same which at least in part probably highlights our difference in opinion. I have had a front row seat in observing dozens of organization being derailed or marginalized by short-term focus. I often don't reply in the kindest of manners to this focus because 20 years of watching it fail (sometimes spectacularly) tends to form a firm opinion of such practices. 

 

You are correct that Mauer is not the solution. I thought I was clear that was a fall back position. Are you against signing one of the 3B free agents and moving Sano to 1B? Obviously, this scenario changes if Sano works his butt off to get in shape and turns things around offensively by the end of the year.

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#169 Major Leauge Ready

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Posted 11 July 2018 - 06:00 PM

 

What do the Twins have that resembles Rizzo, Russel, Casro, Soler at that time, Hendricks and Arrietta with prospect as good as Bryant and Schwarber?

 

There is also the small issue of about $100M additional revenue for the cubs and $150M for Boston. Houston or Cleveland are far better models to examine unless you don't believe revenue matters. Boston could spend the Twins budget and have enough left over to sign 6 Lester equivelents.

 

Houston had a core far deeper and far more proven. Cleveland's moves were trading for guys while they were still prospects and extending a couple key guys.

Edited by Major Leauge Ready, 11 July 2018 - 06:01 PM.

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#170 Mike Sixel

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Posted 11 July 2018 - 06:13 PM

 

I understand your focus and many others is next year. My focus is building a sustainable winner. The two are generally not the same which at least in part probably highlights our difference in opinion. I have had a front row seat in observing dozens of organization being derailed or marginalized by short-term focus. I often don't reply in the kindest of manners to this focus because 20 years of watching it fail (sometimes spectacularly) tends to form a firm opinion of such practices. 

 

You are correct that Mauer is not the solution. I thought I was clear that was a fall back position. Are you against signing one of the 3B free agents and moving Sano to 1B? Obviously, this scenario changes if Sano works his butt off to get in shape and turns things around offensively by the end of the year.

 

My focus is on not pushing the goal posts all the time. There are times to rebuild, and times to go for it (especially if one believes medium markets go in cycles). 

 

Either we believe in Sano and Buxton, or we don't. But if we wait for perfect information, it will be less likely to be successful, because we have not added talent around them. And if we to find out they are bad, and didn't trade Gibson at his peak, we lose value.

 

So, pick a path that isn't the "play not to lose" path, that dooms mediocre teams to stay mediocre.

 

It's not totally fair to say my focus is next year, actually. I'd be ok if they sell off Gibson and Odorizzi...but then play the young guys and get them up here....to gather information and get them more ready for when the window is real.

 

I'd also be ok if they decided to trust Sano and Buxton, and traded for Realmuto and signed the 2-4 best FAs they can next year. I have my doubts about that plan, but I wouldn't kill them for it.

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I remain hopeful on Buxton and Sano.....but I'd not bet the franchise on them.


#171 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 11 July 2018 - 06:46 PM

 


So, what else needs to be added alongside Kirilloff to make this happen? I suspect Miami would command another prospect in Minnesota's top tier – perhaps a Nick Gordon or Stephen Gonsalves. Personally I would be reluctantly willing to part with either. But even that might not get it done.
 

 

I really liked this piece, and I've made a case that we should get Realmutto for the same reasons you propose… but this line is perplexing.

 

Stephen Gonsalves is exactly the type of piece we should be adding to Kirilloff. We have Littell, Slegers, and Romero all sitting in AAA, all of which are pretty much ready as well, and there's not room for all of them. Romero should be untouchable, and I'd much rather part with Gonsavles than Graterol. 

 

If you can build a package around Kirrilloff (who is definitely redundant) and Gonsalves (who is also redundant), you do it. Yeah, were' probably adding some lotto tickets, but this is a great way to trade from surplus to get a need. 

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#172 old nurse

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Posted 11 July 2018 - 09:15 PM

 

There is also the small issue of about $100M additional revenue for the cubs and $150M for Boston. Houston or Cleveland are far better models to examine unless you don't believe revenue matters. Boston could spend the Twins budget and have enough left over to sign 6 Lester equivelents.

 

Houston had a core far deeper and far more proven. Cleveland's moves were trading for guys while they were still prospects and extending a couple key guys.

Houston's revenue last year was estimated at347 million by stastica, It was good for 6th place. Winning was worth 150 million more than they made in 2014. It was also 90 more million than the Twins made last year The revenue per fan for the Twinswas 45 per fan Getting back to selling out would get them close, but the Astro still could afford one more superstar player than the Twins.Any of the teams it still goes back to having a deep core from within. Even the Cubs did not start adding the talent by free agency until it looked like they had a strong core.


#173 alarp33

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Posted 11 July 2018 - 09:19 PM

I really liked this piece, and I've made a case that we should get Realmutto for the same reasons you propose… but this line is perplexing.

Stephen Gonsalves is exactly the type of piece we should be adding to Kirilloff. We have Littell, Slegers, and Romero all sitting in AAA, all of which are pretty much ready as well, and there's not room for all of them. Romero should be untouchable, and I'd much rather part with Gonsavles than Graterol.

If you can build a package around Kirrilloff (who is definitely redundant) and Gonsalves (who is also redundant), you do it. Yeah, were' probably adding some lotto tickets, but this is a great way to trade from surplus to get a need.


I know we’re all guilty of it at times, myself included. But can we stop overrating a mediocre starting P prospect like Gonsalves? There is a 0.0% chance the Marlins trade Realmuto to the twins for a package that not only doesn’t include Lewis, but includes Gonsalves as the 2nd piece

"The game has changed since I've entered, it's for bright, energetic negotiators moreso than anything I possess." - Terry Ryan 2007


#174 Rosterman

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Posted 11 July 2018 - 09:34 PM

If willing to give J.Y. a $100 million offer for five years or more, maybe just maybe. Although you would be sacrificing the talent you yourself expect the club to to use to bring you back from the dark hole. And then we have the issue of giving an extended conract to an aging catcher who may not be a catcher in 3-4 years anymore. Or, do you just wait until J.T. becomes a free agent after 2020?

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#175 gagu

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Posted 11 July 2018 - 09:47 PM

Good arguments on both sides. I'm not agreeing with the black and white comments though. The farm is deep and promising, and Realmuto is an impact player at an important position. There are valid reasons for trading some of the prospect depth.

The big get last season was Verlander. For all their young talent, the Astros probably wouldn´t have made it to the World Series without his 4 post-season wins vs NY and Boston. But to get him, Houston gave up three players that are now ranked #1, #6 and #10 in the Tigers system, but hung onto their two real gems.

Realmuto isn´t Machado, but he is a difference maker, and if he could bring back a nice package in the future if he decided not to extend his contract.

The subject here is what it would take to get him, not the extremes of giving whatever it takes or not sacrificing anything for the future. There is an interesting place in between that rightly merits a 7-page thread.

This is baseball. The variables involved creates possibilities. While I personally wouldn't include Lewis straight up, the idea of Kirlilloff and Gonsalves along with a second tier prospect is at least worthy of discussion. Maybe a deal will require a Kyle Tucker, but he isn't a benchmark at this point. Names get thrown around loosely sometimes. I'll believe it when I see it.

Anyway, an excellent, thought-provoking post.

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#176 Major Leauge Ready

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Posted 12 July 2018 - 01:37 PM

 

My focus is on not pushing the goal posts all the time. There are times to rebuild, and times to go for it (especially if one believes medium markets go in cycles). 

 

Either we believe in Sano and Buxton, or we don't. But if we wait for perfect information, it will be less likely to be successful, because we have not added talent around them. And if we to find out they are bad, and didn't trade Gibson at his peak, we lose value.

 

So, pick a path that isn't the "play not to lose" path, that dooms mediocre teams to stay mediocre.

 

It's not totally fair to say my focus is next year, actually. I'd be ok if they sell off Gibson and Odorizzi...but then play the young guys and get them up here....to gather information and get them more ready for when the window is real.

 

I'd also be ok if they decided to trust Sano and Buxton, and traded for Realmuto and signed the 2-4 best FAs they can next year. I have my doubts about that plan, but I wouldn't kill them for it.

 

Mike, we just have very different ideas of management decision making principles. For starters, there is no such thing as perfect information but this team has absolutely crucial personnel that could not be more uncertain at this point. I would add that better developed information is the foundation to solid decision making.Therefore, I rigidly disagree with your position we will be less likely to succeed if we wait to get a better information. 

 

The "moving the goal posts" is a phrase used by many people, certainly not just you. The "movement" is a date, the principles driving the decision making process should remain the same. What I hear people saying is I am sick of waiting. While I can sympathize, the fact fans want it sooner than later is very poor decision criteria. The status of the team should dictate when to give up future assets to elevate the teams ability to win.

 

You and many others, including local and national sportscasters have pointed toward Buxton and Sano being crucial. Well, they could not be further from carrying this team. Therefore, betting the future on them today is incredibly bad management. At a minimum, the FO should wait for Buxton and Sano to demonstrate they can be effective at the major league level and that's still a long way from demonstrating they play at the level needed to make us contenders. We Have one reliable starter signed past next year and our bullpen is not close to that of a contender.

 

Our young core has not developed but many fans want us to proceed as if they have. There is not a credible argument (IMO) this team is at a point it should be making this type of move. At a minimum, it would make sense to evaluate Buxton, Sano, and several prospects the remainder of the year. Then, while presumably in a much better informed state, reconstruct the 2019 roster. 

Edited by Major Leauge Ready, 12 July 2018 - 01:42 PM.

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#177 Mike Sixel

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Posted 12 July 2018 - 01:59 PM

 

Mike, we just have very different ideas of management decision making principles. For starters, there is no such thing as perfect information but this team has absolutely crucial personnel that could not be more uncertain at this point. I would add that better developed information is the foundation to solid decision making.Therefore, I rigidly disagree with your position we will be less likely to succeed if we wait to get a better information. 

 

The "moving the goal posts" is a phrase used by many people, certainly not just you. The "movement" is a date, the principles driving the decision making process should remain the same. What I hear people saying is I am sick of waiting. While I can sympathize, the fact fans want it sooner than later is very poor decision criteria. The status of the team should dictate when to give up future assets to elevate the teams ability to win.

 

You and many others, including local and national sportscasters have pointed toward Buxton and Sano being crucial. Well, they could not be further from carrying this team. Therefore, betting the future on them today is incredibly bad management. At a minimum, the FO should wait for Buxton and Sano to demonstrate they can be effective at the major league level and that's still a long way from demonstrating they play at the level needed to make us contenders. We Have one reliable starter signed past next year and our bullpen is not close to that of a contender.

 

Our young core has not developed but many fans want us to proceed as if they have. There is not a credible argument (IMO) this team is at a point it should be making this type of move. At a minimum, it would make sense to evaluate Buxton, Sano, and several prospects the remainder of the year. Then, while presumably in a much better informed state, reconstruct the 2019 roster. 

 

Which is one path I said I'd endorse....

 

as for "perfect information", I think you know hat I mean. If they wait for another 18 months of data on Sano and Buxton, we will have lost another 1.5 years of their window (good or bad window)....since if they are great, they won't be able to afford them both and Rosario and Berrios.....

 

this isn't like another business where the assets are enduring, or even depreciating (maybe kind of like that)....Buxton and Sano are only controlled for a few more years. If they wait for better information, they lose a year. I thought that was pretty clear in my post......

 

So, pick a path. Either they are trusting Sano and Buxton become elite again next year, or trade Gibson and Odo and anyone else not part of 2020 competitiveness.

 

But, pick a path.

 

As for patience....they haven't won a playoff series in quite some time, at some point, they just aren't good at their job.....

I remain hopeful on Buxton and Sano.....but I'd not bet the franchise on them.


#178 Major Leauge Ready

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Posted 12 July 2018 - 03:07 PM

 

Which is one path I said I'd endorse....

 

as for "perfect information", I think you know hat I mean. If they wait for another 18 months of data on Sano and Buxton, we will have lost another 1.5 years of their window (good or bad window)....since if they are great, they won't be able to afford them both and Rosario and Berrios.....

 

this isn't like another business where the assets are enduring, or even depreciating (maybe kind of like that)....Buxton and Sano are only controlled for a few more years. If they wait for better information, they lose a year. I thought that was pretty clear in my post......

 

So, pick a path. Either they are trusting Sano and Buxton become elite again next year, or trade Gibson and Odo and anyone else not part of 2020 competitiveness.

 

But, pick a path.

 

As for patience....they haven't won a playoff series in quite some time, at some point, they just aren't good at their job.....

 

Fair enough ... Do you honestly think the wise path is a path that largely depends on Sano and Buxton being elite players. It would be one thing if they were building toward elite status in at the MLB level but they have both been sent back to the minors and Sano's conditioning alone could be reason to not bet on him long-term. This is also overly simplistic. Should we not also consider the fact we have one good SP signed past 2019 and a poor bullpen when considering pushing our chips in? 

 

I also don't agree that either we go all-in or start over. Without looking, I think we have 4 years of control after this year. Why can't we wait until this winter? Why not see how Buxton/Sano/Romero/Gonsales/Busenitz/Gordon, and the entire ML system look like at the end of the season. Why does this need to be decided today? 

Edited by Major Leauge Ready, 12 July 2018 - 03:08 PM.


#179 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 12 July 2018 - 03:33 PM

 

I know we’re all guilty of it at times, myself included. But can we stop overrating a mediocre starting P prospect like Gonsalves? There is a 0.0% chance the Marlins trade Realmuto to the twins for a package that not only doesn’t include Lewis, but includes Gonsalves as the 2nd piece

 

I don't think anyone is over-valuing Gonsalves. I was perplexed why Nick took him off the table. If they wanted Gonsalves, I would be more than happy to include him, especially over Graterol or Romero.


#180 alarp33

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Posted 12 July 2018 - 04:02 PM

 

I don't think anyone is over-valuing Gonsalves. I was perplexed why Nick took him off the table. If they wanted Gonsalves, I would be more than happy to include him, especially over Graterol or Romero.

 

Of course, my point is why would the Marlins want him as a centerpiece of this deal? He's a 24 year old who hasn't pitched in the majors yet and has a ceiling of a mid-rotation starter. Realmuto isn't getting traded for that. 

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