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Article: Real Deal: What Would It Take To Get J.T. Realmuto?

alex kirilloff
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#241 SwainZag

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Posted 17 July 2018 - 04:33 PM

 

Isn't that what I said? I don't get your point with this post.....

 

yes, they should pick a path now, because Gibson has A LOT more value now than he does in 12 months.

 

and, yes, if you wait until you "know" if Sano and Buxton are good or not, you've burned more of the window waiting to know.....

 

I'm not sure what isn't clear there.

 

Either assume they are good, and act that way, or assume they aren't, and act that way. It really only impacts the Odo and Gibson decisions (assuming you are dealing any 18 FAs) and maybe ESan....on the sell side....but it really changes things if you are on the buy side. Of course, they can wait for the off season to add players if they want.....with the up and downside that everyone has more information on the value (or lack thereof) of the prospects being dealt. But, if you pick to add, then are picking NOT TO TRADE Odorizzi or Gibson right now.....and not ESan either.

 

So, ya, waiting is an opportunity cost, and decreases the value of Gibson for sure.

 

I don't think anything in this post is controversial.....

 

If Buck and Sano both break out to their potentials that we have already seen in the past, you can always add as it's happening.I don't see how that would be burning the window at all.....unless they let all their free agents leave and do nothing in free agency, but I think that's a whole 'nother conversation.

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#242 Major Leauge Ready

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Posted 17 July 2018 - 04:46 PM

 

We were specifically talking about 2019-2020, no?Six years of control isn't part of the conversation.

 

So no, I don't expect either of those two to be leading the Twins to postseason glory in 2019-2020. 

 

Beyond that, who knows, but by then there will be other prospects for folks here to salivate over.

 

And for the record, I have never advocated dealing both Lewis and Romero for Realmuto. One or the other, although I'd be reluctant to deal Lewis. I don't think it takes that much. 

That's the crux of the problem. The singular focus on next year. That's what leads to the sentiment that it won't hurt you. Supervisory or even middle management is tasked with execution. Leadership, in this case the Chief Baseball Officer and GM are responsible for the long-term health of this organization. There is not a GM in this league that would give any serious consideration to trade for Realmuto at the expected price if they were in the Twins situation.

 

Cmon, this team is a mess without the necessity of Buxton and Sano becoming elite and you are suggesting a "final piece" type move. To be fair it's a mess with potential. The SP and BP aside, what are the odds at this point Buxton and Sano become 5+ WAR players or whatever measure you want to use that would equate to them playing at the level necessary for the Twins to contend. We should trade away our best prospect for 2 years depending on both Buxton and Sano reaching their potential. That kind of decision making gets you fired when in a leadership position.

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#243 Mike Sixel

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Posted 17 July 2018 - 04:47 PM

 

If Buck and Sano both break out to their potentials that we have already seen in the past, you can always add as it's happening.I don't see how that would be burning the window at all.....unless they let all their free agents leave and do nothing in free agency, but I think that's a whole 'nother conversation.

 

If they are hot in teh first half of next year, that's enough evidence they should now go for it and build around them? Or, longer? 

 

I guess I would want more than half a year from Buxton to have any certainty at all, given what he's done in his career. But that could just be me, for sure.

There's always next year, or the next, or maybe by the time I'm Chief's age, I guess....


#244 Mike Sixel

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Posted 17 July 2018 - 04:48 PM

 

That's the crux of the problem. The singular focus on next year. That's what leads to the sentiment that it won't hurt you. Supervisory or even middle management is tasked with execution. Leadership, in this case the Chief Baseball Officer and GM are responsible for the long-term health of this organization. There is not a GM in this league that would give any serious consideration to trade for Realmuto at the expected price if they were in the Twins situation.

 

Cmon, this team is a mess without the necessity of Buxton and Sano becoming elite and you are suggesting a "final piece" type move. To be fair it's a mess with potential. The SP and BP aside, what are the odds at this point Buxton and Sano become 5+ WAR players or whatever measure you want to use that would equate to them playing at the level necessary for the Twins to contend. We should trade away our best prospect for 2 years depending on both Buxton and Sano reaching their potential. That kind of decision making gets you fired when in a leadership position.

 

Should they be trading off anyone not signed past 2019? I assume you don't think they are real competitors next year either. I could understand and accept that path, as I've said in this thread.

There's always next year, or the next, or maybe by the time I'm Chief's age, I guess....


#245 alarp33

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Posted 17 July 2018 - 05:24 PM

We were specifically talking about 2019-2020, no? Six years of control isn't part of the conversation.

So no, I don't expect either of those two to be leading the Twins to postseason glory in 2019-2020.

Beyond that, who knows, but by then there will be other prospects for folks here to salivate over.

And for the record, I have never advocated dealing both Lewis and Romero for Realmuto. One or the other, although I'd be reluctant to deal Lewis. I don't think it takes that much.


This trade has never been about 2019+2020 only, if it was why wouldn’t they trade their entire system?

"The game has changed since I've entered, it's for bright, energetic negotiators moreso than anything I possess." - Terry Ryan 2007


#246 alarp33

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Posted 17 July 2018 - 05:29 PM

Isn't that what I said? I don't get your point with this post.....

yes, they should pick a path now, because Gibson has A LOT more value now than he does in 12 months.

and, yes, if you wait until you "know" if Sano and Buxton are good or not, you've burned more of the window waiting to know.....

I'm not sure what isn't clear there.

Either assume they are good, and act that way, or assume they aren't, and act that way. It really only impacts the Odo and Gibson decisions (assuming you are dealing any 18 FAs) and maybe ESan....on the sell side....but it really changes things if you are on the buy side. Of course, they can wait for the off season to add players if they want.....with the up and downside that everyone has more information on the value (or lack thereof) of the prospects being dealt. But, if you pick to add, then are picking NOT TO TRADE Odorizzi or Gibson right now.....and not ESan either.

So, ya, waiting is an opportunity cost, and decreases the value of Gibson for sure.

I don't think anything in this post is controversial.....


I think I misunderstood the post I was replying to. I thought you were saying “I’ve always said we should only do this trade if Buxton and Sano are legit”.

But you’re actually saying we should roll the dice and just hope they are.

I disagree, but I misunderstood

"The game has changed since I've entered, it's for bright, energetic negotiators moreso than anything I possess." - Terry Ryan 2007


#247 alarp33

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Posted 17 July 2018 - 05:38 PM

 

Should they be trading off anyone not signed past 2019? I assume you don't think they are real competitors next year either. I could understand and accept that path, as I've said in this thread.

 

Always depends on the deal offered, no? I wouldn't actively pursue a trade of Gibson, but if someone wants to blow them away? Definitely

"The game has changed since I've entered, it's for bright, energetic negotiators moreso than anything I possess." - Terry Ryan 2007


#248 Major Leauge Ready

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Posted 17 July 2018 - 09:05 PM

 

Should they be trading off anyone not signed past 2019? I assume you don't think they are real competitors next year either. I could understand and accept that path, as I've said in this thread.

 

I think the odds are against it but I would try to position the team in a manner that provides flexibility, does not punt 2019, and does not leverage our future. Maybe Buck and Sano come back in August and tear it up. Not likely but it would certainly think that would impact how the FO approached next year in terms of FA signing and trades. At present Gibson is the toughest for me because he has been quite good since the middle of last year and losing him would likely be detrimental to next year. The offer needs to be good. Odorizzi is replaceable. The others being discussed are all free agents and holding on to them because it MIGHT give us a slightly better chance of signing them is a naive approach assuming any of the others net a decent prospect.

 

If Sano / Buxton improve enough to warrant an aggressive approach, great. Perhaps others breakout. It sure seems like Kepler could and perhaps should. Garver has been good offensively of late. Cave has been a very nice surprise. Polanco looked fantastic for a considerable stretch last year and I am not going to assume it was PED induced. There are a number of SP and BP candidates to step up too. Point being there is plenty of upside but the plan should remain fluid until we figure out which players are part of the solution.

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#249 AlwaysinModeration

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Posted 18 July 2018 - 08:12 AM

This is a great thread. Very interesting discussion. The title should probably be revised from “what would it take to get Realmuto” to “would it be wise for the Twins to trade for Realmuto, and if so, what would it take?”

To me, it would be worth going after this trade, because he could provide considerable added value for a position of weakness for 2 years and 2 months. Many have argued that there isn’t a viable window now or in 19 / 20. I strongly disagree. I think there is a 15-20% chance of winning the division this year, which is bolstered a decent amount by adding Realmuto. I think there is easily a 50% chance of making the postseason in 19, and even greater in 20. Getting an above average catcher helps those odds.

Are Buxton and Sano going to contribute to the team’s wins this year, next year, or in 20? No one knows the answer to this. However, I will point out that late in the year last year, there were many severe doubters of Kyle Gibson, and calls for him basically to be cut (yarnivek led this charge, if I recall correctly). I argued that he was going to provide value for the team going forward as a starter; they would need him in the rotation, and he showed signs of upside. Look how that has turned out so far.

This is the bottom of the valley for Buxton and Sano, but remember that they are both young, both were top prospects, and both still have massive upside, if even a bit tempered. They are in the minors working on improving on the weaknesses that have been exposed in the majors. I think they will both be back and will both provide real value for the team, likely as soon as this year.

Now, as for what it would take to get Realmuto, I argued that a case could be made for a package that avoided Lewis, Romero and likely Brusdar. Some argue that won’t be enough. That’s possible. The only way we will really know is if the FO actually trades for him, and we see what the return is. We do know the Marlins asked for Robles or Soto from the Nats, and the asking price is high. But I still contend that a big package of multiple top 100s (Kiriloff, Gonsalves, Baddoo +) could be enough. Maybe not, but maybe.

Anyway, that is the path I would choose...go after Realmuto for a package that does not include the absolute elites from the Twins’ system.

From what I have seen of this Front Office, I think they would be inclined to follow that path—going after an elite player with multiple years of control. Certainly way more likely than Terry Ryan to pull the trigger on such a deal!

Edited by AlwaysinModeration, 18 July 2018 - 08:47 AM.

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#250 Nine of twelve

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Posted 18 July 2018 - 08:31 AM

I haven't read all the posts, and I'm sure this has been said but I'll restate it. Miami should be building for the more distant future while the Twins should be building for the near future. For this trade to happen it will require one of the best distant-future prospects the Twins have because we would be receiving one of the best near-future catchers there is. If I were the Miami GM I'd demand our best single-A prospect, Royce Lewis. Does anyone have the stomach (or other body parts somewhat lower on the male anatomy) to do that?

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#251 Mike Sixel

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Posted 18 July 2018 - 08:38 AM

I think Miami extends him, btw. Which, I'm not sure they should do, as they NEED more talent.

There's always next year, or the next, or maybe by the time I'm Chief's age, I guess....


#252 Vanimal46

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Posted 18 July 2018 - 10:56 AM

Realmuto is #24 overall on Kiley McDaniel's Trade Value series.

https://www.fangraph...value-21-to-30/
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#253 Mike Sixel

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Posted 18 July 2018 - 01:26 PM

 

Realmuto is #24 overall on Kiley McDaniel's Trade Value series.

https://www.fangraph...value-21-to-30/

 

That gives us a good idea of his value....

There's always next year, or the next, or maybe by the time I'm Chief's age, I guess....




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