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Article: Real Deal: What Would It Take To Get J.T. Realmuto?

alex kirilloff
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#201 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 13 July 2018 - 01:57 PM

 

I don't have a clue RIGHT NOW what Buxton and Sano will do in 2019 and neither does anyone else with any reasonable degree of certainty. This is part of the point. It's a lost season but we have almost a half of the season left to see if they can turn it around. 

 

Not advocating to sign Realmuto or any other player requiring us to give up our best prospects at this moment is very far removed from “punting 2019. Most everyone who is an advocate suggests we are in a window of contention based on control of Buxton and Sano. I am suggesting that it does not make sense to trade key prospects to build a team around two players who are performing so badly they are in the minors. At a minimum take the rest of this lost season, make a more informed decision at the end of the season and act accordingly in the off season.

 

Part of the difference in opinion here is some of the posters have indicated the goal is to win a weak central division. If that’s the goal, I can see the point. I have said before that I believe the goal should be to construct a team that’s on par with the top teams in the AL. In other words, a team that has a 50/50 shot of winning a playoff series. If the goal is to build an actual contender, I have seen nothing written here that indicates any of the trade for Realmuto supporters have considered what it would take to build a contender and what is the best path to that goal.

 

We are on pace to win 75 games. Even if Buxton and Sano come back to be 5 WAR players and we add Realmuto, we are still not close to competitive with the 4 teams on pace to win 100 games and those teams are all built to be good for several years. What do we do about SP? We have one proven SP signed beyond 2019 and the existing staff is not going to be adequate to contend next year. Mike has pointed out the FA market for SP is weak. What would we have to give up to get a front of the rotation SP with 3+ years of control? Ops, we still need a whole lot of help in the BP. Oh, we are forgetting replacing Mauer and Dozier.

 

So, what I am hearing is let’s push are chips in the middle because our window with Buxton and Sano is closing. First, we extended Mauer so it’s certainly not a forgone conclusion we would lose them both. Secondly, they are failing so spectacularly that they have been sent to the minor. Neither can stay healthy. We should ignore the fact that our SP is not nearly at the level of contention and we have one good SP signed beyond 2019. Let’s ignore the bullpen needs almost a complete overhaul. Let’s ignore we have to fill 1B and 2B.

 

Someone will have to show me how we fill all of these holes, especially by opening day 2019. While you are at it, explain to be how a team of a 75 win pace with all of these issues is in a window of contention.

 

To be clear, I don't think adding a 5 WAR player simply adds 5 wins. That's a complex approximation that provides some context around results, but hardly an absolute value. Adding good players top through the bottom of the team will certainly make the results greater than the sum of the parts. But I'd add that you would still need to makes some sort of move at 1B/DH, which in this market is oddly enough, cheap to do. That's also a big reason why I'm advocating keeping Escobar.

 

Pitching, I agree is still weak, though I'm not sure how you figure we have 1 SP. I'd say there are two pretty good ones right now in Berrios and Gibson. There's a slightly above average one in Odorizzi, and wild cards in Pineda (who could be very good), Romero (who is probably a lock for 2019), May, and some of the AAA guys. I'd also argue that the pen can largely get figured out in this lost year. There are plenty of guys on the 40 man who need shots and Molly needs to play them...

 

So no, I wouldn't punt on 2019. And regardless, you'll still need a catcher. If things don't pan out, you can trade Realmutto or take the comp pick when he leaves absorbing the risk for his potential injury. The flip side to all of this is that if you do nothing, and Sano and Buxton make strides, we wasted 2019 as well.

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#202 yarnivek1972

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Posted 13 July 2018 - 03:24 PM

Certainly reasonable options. Given position scarcity, they'll cost around 15-20MM per year....ready to pay that?


It makes more sense to me to pay that than pay $6 mil and $10 mil the next two years to Realmuto in arbitration AND lose top prospects. This organization needs more prospects, not fewer. Their core is always going to be built around homegrown talent. Frankly, that’s the case for most teams.

Edited by yarnivek1972, 13 July 2018 - 03:27 PM.


#203 Mike Sixel

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Posted 13 July 2018 - 03:49 PM

 

It makes more sense to me to pay that than pay $6 mil and $10 mil the next two years to Realmuto in arbitration AND lose top prospects. This organization needs more prospects, not fewer. Their core is always going to be built around homegrown talent. Frankly, that’s the case for most teams.

 

Has anyone argued otherwise, on that last point? I sure haven't.

 

Do you think it likely they will outbid all the other teams needing catchers? I can't think of one time they've outbid teams for the top talent in FA....they are good at getting the "efficient" plays....

One of the best opening day rosters in years. Now go get 'em.


#204 alarp33

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Posted 13 July 2018 - 03:57 PM

 

 

 

So no, I wouldn't punt on 2019. And regardless, you'll still need a catcher. If things don't pan out, you can trade Realmutto or take the comp pick when he leaves absorbing the risk for his potential injury. The flip side to all of this is that if you do nothing, and Sano and Buxton make strides, we wasted 2019 as well.

 

To get this all straight;

 

Last season he Twins with a much worse pitching staff, a still green Buxton/Sano, who had up and down 2017 seasons, made the Wild Card with Jason Castro at Catcher. 

 

But IF Buxton and Sano make big strides in 2019 (with a much improved staff), the Twins will have "wasted 2019" because they didn't trade their top prospects for Realmuto. 

 

As for your other argument on getting a comp pick for Realmuto.I pray the Twins front office has more discipline than to think trading Royce Lewis away on a flier season will be ok either way because they can always get a comp pick back

Edited by alarp33, 13 July 2018 - 03:59 PM.

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#205 Mike Sixel

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Posted 13 July 2018 - 04:13 PM

 

To get this all straight;

 

Last season he Twins with a much worse pitching staff, a still green Buxton/Sano, who had up and down 2017 seasons, made the Wild Card with Jason Castro at Catcher. 

 

But IF Buxton and Sano make big strides in 2019 (with a much improved staff), the Twins will have "wasted 2019" because they didn't trade their top prospects for Realmuto. 

 

As for your other argument on getting a comp pick for Realmuto.I pray the Twins front office has more discipline than to think trading Royce Lewis away on a flier season will be ok either way because they can always get a comp pick back

 

With Dozier hitting 40 bombs, and Mauer having his best year in the last four....both of whom may not be on the roster.

 

And, as pointed out by you and others, not even close to competitive in the playoffs.

 

Catcher is one of the few spots where they can clearly upgrade, from "meh" to good or better. They'll either need to trade to do so, or will have to outbid the other teams for the 2 good FA catchers. I'm not saying they SHOULD trade for Realmuto, I'm saying it is one of the few opportunities to get an elite player they have.

One of the best opening day rosters in years. Now go get 'em.


#206 Major Leauge Ready

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Posted 13 July 2018 - 04:26 PM

 

To be clear, I don't think adding a 5 WAR player simply adds 5 wins. That's a complex approximation that provides some context around results, but hardly an absolute value. Adding good players top through the bottom of the team will certainly make the results greater than the sum of the parts. But I'd add that you would still need to makes some sort of move at 1B/DH, which in this market is oddly enough, cheap to do. That's also a big reason why I'm advocating keeping Escobar.

 

Pitching, I agree is still weak, though I'm not sure how you figure we have 1 SP. I'd say there are two pretty good ones right now in Berrios and Gibson. There's a slightly above average one in Odorizzi, and wild cards in Pineda (who could be very good), Romero (who is probably a lock for 2019), May, and some of the AAA guys. I'd also argue that the pen can largely get figured out in this lost year. There are plenty of guys on the 40 man who need shots and Molly needs to play them...

 

So no, I wouldn't punt on 2019. And regardless, you'll still need a catcher. If things don't pan out, you can trade Realmutto or take the comp pick when he leaves absorbing the risk for his potential injury. The flip side to all of this is that if you do nothing, and Sano and Buxton make strides, we wasted 2019 as well.

 

I did say we only have one good SP.I aid we have one good SP signed past next year.In other words, if we have any inclination to look beyond next year through this "window of contention" we will need to trade additional assets or the trade for Realmuto means little if we don't have the pitching to contend. There is a lot of work to do in the bullpen as well. 

 

Basically, you are trading away very valuable assets on the bet ......

 

Sano will straighten out his pitch recognition issues, stay healthy and get in reasonable shape.

Buxton will hit above average for the position and stay healthy.

One of the SP prospects steps up to at least a 3 next year.

We can acquire another front of the rotation SP next year.

We can pretty much rebuild the bullpen from the start of 2019.

We can replace Mauer and Dozier next year..

 

This would be an extremely rare feat.

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#207 yarnivek1972

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Posted 13 July 2018 - 06:38 PM

With Dozier hitting 40 bombs, and Mauer having his best year in the last four....both of whom may not be on the roster.

And, as pointed out by you and others, not even close to competitive in the playoffs.

Catcher is one of the few spots where they can clearly upgrade, from "meh" to good or better. They'll either need to trade to do so, or will have to outbid the other teams for the 2 good FA catchers. I'm not saying they SHOULD trade for Realmuto, I'm saying it is one of the few opportunities to get an elite player they have.


The Twins are just as likely to get outbid for Realmuto as for a FA because they lack high end prospects that they can afford to lose.

#208 Mike Sixel

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Posted 13 July 2018 - 06:59 PM

The Twins are just as likely to get outbid for Realmuto as for a FA because they lack high end prospects that they can afford to lose.


Of course they are. Thats a problem for sure.

One of the best opening day rosters in years. Now go get 'em.


#209 alarp33

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Posted 13 July 2018 - 07:01 PM

 

 

 

Catcher is one of the few spots where they can clearly upgrade, from "meh" to good or better. They'll either need to trade to do so, or will have to outbid the other teams for the 2 good FA catchers. I'm not saying they SHOULD trade for Realmuto, I'm saying it is one of the few opportunities to get an elite player they have.

 

Have you seen the bullpen? The idea that the Twins are "wasting 2019" by not getting either Realmuto, Ramos, or Grandal is beyond absurd. Since when did catcher become the position you have to have a top guy or you can't win?

 

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#210 Mike Sixel

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Posted 13 July 2018 - 07:04 PM

Have you seen the bullpen? The idea that the Twins are "wasting 2019" by not getting either Realmuto, Ramos, or Grandal is beyond absurd. Since when did catcher become the position you have to have a top guy or you can't win?


I'm done. It's almost like we are ignoring all the posts here. Enjoy.

One of the best opening day rosters in years. Now go get 'em.


#211 alarp33

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Posted 13 July 2018 - 07:15 PM

 

I'm done. It's almost like we are ignoring all the posts here. Enjoy.

 

What am I missing here? Did you not write they have very few holes but catcher? Have you not said they are wasting Buxton + Sano if they don't fix catcher? Did the other poster you defended in your last comment to me not call 2019 a waste without getting Realmuto? You said the option is that, or sign Ramos or Grandal?

 

How about teams like the A's, Diamondbacks, Nats, Red Sox, Indians, Mariners, and Brewers all competing this season with catchers who have wRC+ below 80? How have they done it?

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#212 alarp33

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Posted 13 July 2018 - 07:18 PM

22 catchers had a fangraphs WAR between 1.0 and 2.7 last year. The idea that this is the position this team HAS to fix - up to and including trading a talent like Lewis and/or Kiriloff makes zero sense to me. None

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#213 Riverbrian

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Posted 13 July 2018 - 09:05 PM

I'd love to have Realmuto but I can't rationalize the price that needs to be paid to acquire him. 

 

You could acquire a lot more bat at other positions for the same price. More bat that doesn't come with the standard required catcher rest and typical catcher dings that seem to send catchers to the DL more often than other positions. 

 

I have no idea (how could I) but I think it's a fair assumption that it would take more to acquire Realmuto than it would for Eugenio Suarez. If that's the case you might as well go get Suarez instead because he will produce more at the plate and play more often. 

 

Maybe the Pirates will give up Marte for the price you would pay for Realmuto.  

 

Many seem to be willing to declare Sano as the starting 3B in 2019 and therefore don't see a need for Suarez. Many are ready to declare Buxton as the everyday guy in CF come 2019 and therefore don't see the need for a Marte. I will never understand that logic when you look at the Sano and Buxton puddles lying in the middle of the 2018 street. How can any GM or fan for that matter look at Sano and Buxton and say to themselves... We are covered at 3B and CF? 

 

Why wouldn't you pickup a Marte to join Rosario, Kepler and Buxton if you could? Let Buxton earn his playing time. If he can't beat those 3 for playing time than he isn't what we need him to be in 2019. If all 4 kick ass... Great problem to have. 

 

Why wouldn't you pickup a Suarez to play 3B if you could? Let Sano earn playing time by... you know... performing. Sano could start on the opening day roster as a 1B/3B/DH. If Sano is earning everyday playing time... he could play some 1B or DH. If Mauer comes back... Sano could slow Mauer's playing time by... out performing him or DH if Mauer is performing... again... good problem to have. If Mauer doesn't come back... pick up Matt Adams for 1B to compete with Sano and Suarez. Play Adams in the OF on occasion if you like the matchups or all 3 are hot and you want to DH someone else. 

 

We were 5 hitters short this year from a decent starting 9 players. I don't understand how anyone van put together a potential 2019 lineup with Sano, Buxton and Kepler etched in stone and feel comfortable that we have 3 positions covered adequately for 162 games next year. I'm saying this and I believe in all 3 of those guys. 

 

So that leads to the question? But... who will play Catcher... We will have Castro and we will have whoever they sign in Free Agency.:)

 

If you are giving up Lewis or Romero plus Nick Gordon plus that Brudar kid plus Kiriloff or whatever you are willing to pay for Realmuto... Spend it on someone who will dent the scoreboard more often... GO BIG and don't let the presence of Sano or Buxton stop you.  

 

About the only way I'd be comfortable trading for Realmuto was if the Twins could get Starlin Castro as a throw in or even lower the prospect price for taking on that contract. I doubt that would work but at least that way you improve a couple of areas instead of a cannonball through the farm system for a Catcher improvement alone. 

 

 

 

 

 

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#214 Major Leauge Ready

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Posted 14 July 2018 - 05:43 AM

 

I'm done. It's almost like we are ignoring all the posts here. Enjoy.

 

That's for sure. I have asked a few times to those of you who have said we MIGHT waste 2019 ... what's the rest of the plan. Are you really suggesting a move this costly be done without determining the viability of the other moves required. 2019 will be a waste with or without Realmuto without at least one more top of the rotation starter. I would assume the supporters know this. I assume they also know we have a sum total of one BP guy. It's also understood we need to replace Dozier who was arguably most valuable player on the team the past couple of years. As you have pointed out, we have a hole to fill at 1B and the FA mark is very weak. Would that not require a trade to fill as well? Escobar will be gone as well. 

 

Maybe it's just me but I have not seen anyone else address what we need to do to insure the cost associated with acquiring Realmuto is not a complete waste. I have also seen anyone address why now is better than the off-season other than this particular asset might not be available.

 

So, we are not just talking about a considerable package for Realmuto. We would need to pony up big time for a SP given there are none available this winter in FA. We could get a 3B and move Sano to first so that is possible through FA. At a minimum, saving 2019 would require two monster packages which would take several of our top prospects.

 

All of this to build a contender around two guys that have regressed to the point of being sent back to the minors. The only cost of waiting the rest of the year and being in a considerably better position to make such a decision is this particular asset probably won't be available.The cost, if all of these things don't come together is likely several more years of sucking. The benefit is elevating our chances of contention for the 19-20 seasons. 

 

The only way this makes any sense at all is if Buxton and Sano are playing at an elite level out of the gate in 2019. That's a long-shot as is putting together all of the rest of the pieces by the start of 2019 Given the cost of this plan (trading key prospects) and the relative lack of cost to take the rest of the year to evaluate Buxton / Sano as well as SP and BP prospects it would be flat out incompetent to trade for Realmuto or any similar asset today. 

 

Edited by Major Leauge Ready, 14 July 2018 - 05:53 AM.

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